The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture

Despite a significant growth in food production over the past half-century, one of the most important challenges facing society today is how to feed an expected population of some nine billion by the middle of the 20th century. To meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in prices, it has been estimated that we need to produce 70-100 per cent more food, in light of the growing impacts of climate change, concerns over energy security, regional dietary shifts and the Millennium Development target of halving world poverty and hunger by 2015. The goal for the agricultural sector is no longer simply to maximize productivity, but to optimize across a far more complex landscape of production, rural development, environmental, social justice and food consumption outcomes. However, there remain significant challenges to developing national and international policies that support the wide emergence of more sustainable forms of land use and efficient agricultural production. The lack of information flow between scientists, practitioners and policy makers is known to exacerbate the difficulties, despite increased emphasis upon evidence-based policy. In this paper, we seek to improve dialogue and understanding between agricultural research and policy by identifying the 100 most important questions for global agriculture. These have been compiled using a horizon-scanning approach with leading experts and representatives of major agricultural organizations worldwide. The aim is to use sound scientific evidence to inform decision making and guide policy makers in the future direction of agricultural research priorities and policy support. If addressed, we anticipate that these questions will have a significant impact on global agricultural practices worldwide, while improving the synergy between agricultural policy, practice and research. This research forms part of the UK Government's Foresight Global Food and Farming Futures project.

Thomas-Fermi Method For Particles Obeying Generalized Exclusion Statistics

We use the Thomas-Fermi method to examine the thermodynamics of particles obeying Haldane exclusion statistics. Specifically, we study Calogero-Sutherland particles placed in a given external potential in one dimension. For the case of a simple harmonic potential (constant density of states), we obtain the exact one-particle spatial density and a {\it closed} form for the equation of state at finite temperature, which are both new results. We then solve the problem of particles in a $x^{2/3} ~$ potential (linear density of states) and show that Bose-Einstein condensation does not occur for any statistics other than bosons.

Nonlinear Optical Properties of Stacked Conjugated Systems

We study linear and nonlinear optical properties of two push-pull polyenes stacked in head to head (HtH) and head to tail (HtT) configurations, at different stacking angles within the Pariser-Parr-Pople model using exact diagonalization method. By varying the stacking angle between the polyenes, we find that the optical gap varies marginally, but transition dipoles show large variations. We find that the dominant first-order hyperpolarizability component beta(XXX) for HtH arrangement and beta(YYY) for HtT arrangement strongly depend on the distance of separation between molecules, while the other smaller component beta(XYY) for HtH arrangement and beta(XXY) for HtT arrangement) does not show this variation with distance. We find that the beta(XXX) for HtH configuration shows a maximum at an angle away from 0, in contrast with the oriented gas model. This angle varies with distance between the polyenes, and at large distance it falls to 0. The ratio of all components of beta of a dimer to monomer is less than two for HtH configuration for all angles. But for HtT configurations the ratio of the dominant beta component is greater than two at large angles. Our ZINDO study on two monomers (4-hydroxy-4'-nitroazobenzene) connected in a nonconjugative fashion shows a linear increase in vertical bar(beta) over right arrow (av)vertical bar without much red shift in optical gap. There is a linear increase in vertical bar(beta) over right arrow (av)vertical bar with increase in number of monomers connected nonconjugatively without resulting in a red shift in optical gap.

Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon(1-3). With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses(4-9). As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world's major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve `health': about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.

Revalidation of Natrix clerki Wall, 1925, an overlooked species in the genus Amphiesma Dumeril, Bibron & Dumeril, 1854 (Squamata: Natricidae)

Natrix clerki Wall, 1925, previously known from its sole holotype and considered a synonym of Amphiesma parallelum (Boulenger, 1890), is resurrected in the genus Amphiesma on the basis of the analysis of morphological variation in 28 specimens of ``Amphiesma parallelum'' auctorum, plus six living, unvouchered specimens discovered in Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, India, and one vouchered specimen from Talle Valley in Arunachal Pradesh. Specimens from northeast India (Nagaland), northern Myanmar, and China (Yunnan), previously identified as Amphiesma parallelum either in the literature or in museum's catalogues, are also here referred to A. clerki. The holotype of Amphiesma clerki is redescribed. As a consequence, the definition of Amphiesma parallelum is modified. A. parallelum inhabits the Khasi Hills and Naga Hills in Northeast India, whereas A. clerki has a wider range in the Eastern Himalayas, northern Myanmar and Yunnan (China). Amphiesma clerki differs from A. parallelum by its longer tail, dorsal scales more strongly keeled, scales of the first dorsal scale row strongly keeled vs. smooth, a postocular streak not interrupted at the level of the neck, and a much more vivid pattern on a darker background colour. Characters of species of the Amphiesma parallelum group, i.e. A. clerki, A. parallelum, A. bitaeniatum, A. platyceps and A. sieboldii are compared. A key to this group is provided.

An estimate of the number of tropical tree species

The high species richness of tropical forests has long been recognized, yet there remains substantial uncertainty regarding the actual number of tropical tree species. Using a pantropical tree inventory database from closed canopy forests, consisting of 657,630 trees belonging to 11,371 species, we use a fitted value of Fisher's alpha and an approximate pantropical stem total to estimate the minimum number of tropical forest tree species to fall between similar to 40,000 and similar to 53,000, i.e., at the high end of previous estimates. Contrary to common assumption, the Indo-Pacific region was found to be as species-rich as the Neotropics, with both regions having a minimum of similar to 19,000-25,000 tree species. Continental Africa is relatively depauperate with a minimum of similar to 4,500-6,000 tree species. Very few species are shared among the African, American, and the Indo-Pacific regions. We provide a methodological framework for estimating species richness in trees that may help refine species richness estimates of tree-dependent taxa.