Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.

An analytical model for the capacity estimation of combined VoIP and TCP file transfers over EDCA in an IEEE 802.11e WLAN

In this paper we develop and numerically explore the modeling heuristic of using saturation attempt probabilities as state dependent attempt probabilities in an IEEE 802.11e infrastructure network carrying packet telephone calls and TCP controlled file downloads, using Enhanced Distributed Channel Access (EDCA). We build upon the fixed point analysis and performance insights in [1]. When there are a certain number of nodes of each class contending for the channel (i.e., have nonempty queues), then their attempt probabilities are taken to be those obtained from saturation analysis for that number of nodes. Then we model the system queue dynamics at the network nodes. With the proposed heuristic, the system evolution at channel slot boundaries becomes a Markov renewal process, and regenerative analysis yields the desired performance measures.The results obtained from this approach match well with ns2 simulations. We find that, with the default IEEE 802.11e EDCA parameters for AC 1 and AC 3, the voice call capacity decreases if even one file download is initiated by some station. Subsequently, reducing the voice calls increases the file download capacity almost linearly (by 1/3 Mbps per voice call for the 11 Mbps PHY).

Chain folding and A:T pairing in human telomeric DNA: a model-building and molecular dynamics study

The various types of chain folding and possible intraloop as well as interloop base pairing in human telomeric DNA containing d(TTAG(3)) repeats have been investigated by model-building, molecular mechanics, and molecular dynamics techniques. Model-building and molecular mechanics studies indicate that it is possible to build a variety of energetically favorable folded-back structures with the two TTA loops on same side and the 5' end thymines in the two loops forming TATA tetrads involving a number of different intraloop as well as interloop A:T pairing schemes. In these folded-back structures, although both intraloop and interloop Watson-Crick pairing is feasible, no structure is possible with interloop Hoogsteen pairing. MD studies of representative structures indicate that the guanine-tetraplex stem is very rigid and, while the loop regions are relatively much more flexible, most of the hydrogen bonds remain intact throughout the 350-ps in vacuo simulation. The various possible TTA loop structures, although they are energetically similar, have characteristic inter proton distances, which could give rise to unique cross-peaks in two-dimensional nuclear Overhauser effect spectroscopy (NOESY) experiments. These folded-back structures with A:T pairings in the loop region help in rationalizing the data from chemical probing and other biochemical studies on human telomeric DNA.

Distributed Source Coding for Sensor Data Model and Estimation of Cluster Head Errors Using Bayesian and K-Near Neighborhood Classifiers in Deployment of Dense Wireless Sensor Networks

The lifetime calculation of large dense sensor networks with fixed energy resources and the remaining residual energy have shown that for a constant energy resource in a sensor network the fault rate at the cluster head is network size invariant when using the network layer with no MAC losses.Even after increasing the battery capacities in the nodes the total lifetime does not increase after a max limit of 8 times. As this is a serious limitation lots of research has been done at the MAC layer which allows to adapt to the specific connectivity, traffic and channel polling needs for sensor networks. There have been lots of MAC protocols which allow to control the channel polling of new radios which are available to sensor nodes to communicate. This further reduces the communication overhead by idling and sleep scheduling thus extending the lifetime of the monitoring application. We address the two issues which effects the distributed characteristics and performance of connected MAC nodes. (1) To determine the theoretical minimum rate based on joint coding for a correlated data source at the singlehop, (2a) to estimate cluster head errors using Bayesian rule for routing using persistence clustering when node densities are the same and stored using prior probability at the network layer, (2b) to estimate the upper bound of routing errors when using passive clustering were the node densities at the multi-hop MACS are unknown and not stored at the multi-hop nodes a priori. In this paper we evaluate many MAC based sensor network protocols and study the effects on sensor network lifetime. A renewable energy MAC routing protocol is designed when the probabilities of active nodes are not known a priori. From theoretical derivations we show that for a Bayesian rule with known class densities of omega1, omega2 with expected error P* is bounded by max error rate of P=2P* for single-hop. We study the effects of energy losses using cross-layer simulation of - large sensor network MACS setup, the error rate which effect finding sufficient node densities to have reliable multi-hop communications due to unknown node densities. The simulation results show that even though the lifetime is comparable the expected Bayesian posterior probability error bound is close or higher than Pges2P*.

Dendrimer building toolkit: Model building and characterization of various dendrimer architectures

We have developed a graphical user interface based dendrimer builder toolkit (DBT) which can be used to generate the dendrimer configuration of desired generation for various dendrimer architectures. The validation of structures generated by this tool was carried out by studying the structural properties of two well known classes of dendrimers: ethylenediamine cored poly(amidoamine) (PAMAM) dendrimer, diaminobutyl cored poly(propylene imine) (PPI) dendrimer. Using full atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulation we have calculated the radius of gyration, shape tensor and monomer density distribution for PAMAM and PPI dendrimer at neutral and high pH. A good agreement between the available simulation and experimental (small angle X-ray and neutron scattering; SAXS, SANS) results and calculated radius of gyration was observed. With this validation we have used DBT to build another new class of nitrogen cored poly(propyl ether imine) dendrimer and study it's structural features using all atomistic MD simulation. DBT is a versatile tool and can be easily used to generate other dendrimer structures with different chemistry and topology. The use of general amber force field to describe the intra-molecular interactions allows us to integrate this tool easily with the widely used molecular dynamics software AMBER. This makes our tool a very useful utility which can help to facilitate the study of dendrimer interaction with nucleic acids, protein and lipid bilayer for various biological applications. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dendrimer building toolkit: Model building and characterization of various dendrimer architectures

We have developed a graphical user interface based dendrimer builder toolkit (DBT) which can be used to generate the dendrimer configuration of desired generation for various dendrimer architectures. The validation of structures generated by this tool was carried out by studying the structural properties of two well known classes of dendrimers: ethylenediamine cored poly(amidoamine) (PAMAM) dendrimer, diaminobutyl cored poly(propylene imine) (PPI) dendrimer. Using full atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulation we have calculated the radius of gyration, shape tensor and monomer density distribution for PAMAM and PPI dendrimer at neutral and high pH. A good agreement between the available simulation and experimental (small angle X-ray and neutron scattering; SAXS, SANS) results and calculated radius of gyration was observed. With this validation we have used DBT to build another new class of nitrogen cored poly(propyl ether imine) dendrimer and study it's structural features using all atomistic MD simulation. DBT is a versatile tool and can be easily used to generate other dendrimer structures with different chemistry and topology. The use of general amber force field to describe the intra-molecular interactions allows us to integrate this tool easily with the widely used molecular dynamics software AMBER. This makes our tool a very useful utility which can help to facilitate the study of dendrimer interaction with nucleic acids, protein and lipid bilayer for various biological applications. (c) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

State estimation in power systems using linear model infinity norm-based trust region approach

State estimation is one of the most important functions in an energy control centre. An computationally efficient state estimator which is free from numerical instability/ill-conditioning is essential for security assessment of electric power grid. Whereas approaches to successfully overcome the numerical ill-conditioning issues have been proposed, an efficient algorithm for addressing the convergence issues in the presence of topological errors is yet to be evolved. Trust region (TR) methods have been successfully employed to overcome the divergence problem to certain extent. In this study, case studies are presented where the conventional algorithms including the existing TR methods would fail to converge. A linearised model-based TR method for successfully overcoming the convergence issues is proposed. On the computational front, unlike the existing TR methods for state estimation which employ quadratic models, the proposed linear model-based estimator is computationally efficient because the model minimiser can be computed in a single step. The model minimiser at each step is computed by minimising the linearised model in the presence of TR and measurement mismatch constraints. The infinity norm is used to define the geometry of the TR. Measurement mismatch constraints are employed to improve the accuracy. The proposed algorithm is compared with the quadratic model-based TR algorithm with case studies on the IEEE 30-bus system, 205-bus and 514-bus equivalent systems of part of Indian grid.

State estimation of spiralling target using UKF with generalized sinusoidal target acceleration model

Hit-to-kill interception of high velocity spiraling target requires accurate state estimation of relative kinematic parameters describing spiralling motion. In this pa- per, spiraling target motion is captured by representing target acceleration through sinusoidal function in inertial frame. A nine state unscented Kalman filter (UKF) formulation is presented here with three relative positions, three relative velocities, spiraling frequency of target, inverse of ballistic coefficient and maneuvering coef-ficient. A key advantage of the target model presented here is that it is of generic nature and can capture spiraling as well as pure ballistic motions without any change of tuning parameters. Extensive Six-DOF simulation experiments, which includes a modified PN guidance and dynamic inversion based autopilot, show that near Hit-to-Kill performance can be obtained with noisy RF seeker measurements of gimbal angles, gimbal angle rates, range and range rate.

Generalized State Estimation and Model Predictive Guidance for Spiraling and Ballistic Targets

An extended Kalman filter based generalized state estimation approach is presented in this paper for accurately estimating the states of incoming high-speed targets such as ballistic missiles. A key advantage of this nine-state problem formulation is that it is very much generic and can capture spiraling as well as pure ballistic motion of targets without any change of the target model and the tuning parameters. A new nonlinear model predictive zero-effort-miss based guidance algorithm is also presented in this paper, in which both the zero-effort-miss as well as the time-to-go are predicted more accurately by first propagating the nonlinear target model (with estimated states) and zero-effort interceptor model simultaneously. This information is then used for computing the necessary lateral acceleration. Extensive six-degrees-of-freedom simulation experiments, which include noisy seeker measurements, a nonlinear dynamic inversion based autopilot for the interceptor along with appropriate actuator and sensor models and magnitude and rate saturation limits for the fin deflections, show that near-zero miss distance (i.e., hit-to-kill level performance) can be obtained when these two new techniques are applied together. Comparison studies with an augmented proportional navigation based guidance shows that the proposed model predictive guidance leads to a substantial amount of conservation in the control energy as well.

Comparative evaluation of inversion approaches of the radiative transfer model for estimation of crop biophysical parameters

The inversion of canopy reflectance models is widely used for the retrieval of vegetation properties from remote sensing. This study evaluates the retrieval of soybean biophysical variables of leaf area index, leaf chlorophyll content, canopy chlorophyll content, and equivalent leaf water thickness from proximal reflectance data integrated broadbands corresponding to moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer, thematic mapper, and linear imaging self scanning sensors through inversion of the canopy radiative transfer model, PROSAIL. Three different inversion approaches namely the look-up table, genetic algorithm, and artificial neural network were used and performances were evaluated. Application of the genetic algorithm for crop parameter retrieval is a new attempt among the variety of optimization problems in remote sensing which have been successfully demonstrated in the present study. Its performance was as good as that of the look-up table approach and the artificial neural network was a poor performer. The general order of estimation accuracy for para-meters irrespective of inversion approaches was leaf area index > canopy chlorophyll content > leaf chlorophyll content > equivalent leaf water thickness. Performance of inversion was comparable for broadband reflectances of all three sensors in the optical region with insignificant differences in estimation accuracy among them.

SPSA Based Feature Relevance Estimation For Video Retrieval

With the availability of a huge amount of video data on various sources, efficient video retrieval tools are increasingly in demand. Video being a multi-modal data, the perceptions of ``relevance'' between the user provided query video (in case of Query-By-Example type of video search) and retrieved video clips are subjective in nature. We present an efficient video retrieval method that takes user's feedback on the relevance of retrieved videos and iteratively reformulates the input query feature vectors (QFV) for improved video retrieval. The QFV reformulation is done by a simple, but powerful feature weight optimization method based on Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation (SPSA) technique. A video retrieval system with video indexing, searching and relevance feedback (RF) phases is built for demonstrating the performance of the proposed method. The query and database videos are indexed using the conventional video features like color, texture, etc. However, we use the comprehensive and novel methods of feature representations, and a spatio-temporal distance measure to retrieve the top M videos that are similar to the query. In feedback phase, the user activated iterative on the previously retrieved videos is used to reformulate the QFV weights (measure of importance) that reflect the user's preference, automatically. It is our observation that a few iterations of such feedback are generally sufficient for retrieving the desired video clips. The novel application of SPSA based RF for user-oriented feature weights optimization makes the proposed method to be distinct from the existing ones. The experimental results show that the proposed RF based video retrieval exhibit good performance.

Physics beyond Standard Model: Working group 3 report

This is a summary of the beyond the Standard Model (including model building working group of the WHEPP-X workshop held at Chennai from January 3 to 15, 2008.

Estimation of cosmological parameters from neutral hydrogen observations of the post-reionization epoch

The emission from neutral hydrogen (HI) clouds in the post-reionization era (z <= 6), too faint to be individually detected, is present as a diffuse background in all low frequency radio observations below 1420MHz. The angular and frequency fluctuations of this radiation (similar to 1 mK) are an important future probe of the large-scale structures in the Universe. We show that such observations are a very effective probe of the background cosmological model and the perturbed Universe. In our study we focus on the possibility of determining the redshift-space distortion parameter beta, coordinate distance r(nu), and its derivative with redshift r(nu)('). Using reasonable estimates for the observational uncertainties and configurations representative of the ongoing and upcoming radio interferometers, we predict parameter estimation at a precision comparable with supernova Ia observations and galaxy redshift surveys, across a wide range in redshift that is only partially accessed by other probes. Future HI observations of the post-reionization era present a new technique, complementing several existing ones, to probe the expansion history and to elucidate the nature of the dark energy.

Climate response to physiological forcing of carbon dioxide simulated by the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1) and Community Land Model (CLM3.0)

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 decrease stomatal conductance of plants and thus suppress canopy transpiration. The climate response to this CO2-physiological forcing is investigated using the Community Atmosphere Model version 3.1 coupled to Community Land Model version 3.0. In response to the physiological effect of doubling CO2, simulations show a decrease in canopy transpiration of 8%, a mean warming of 0.1K over the land surface, and negligible changes in the hydrological cycle. These climate responses are much smaller than what were found in previous modeling studies. This is largely a result of unrealistic partitioning of evapotranspiration in our model control simulation with a greatly underestimated contribution from canopy transpiration and overestimated contributions from canopy and soil evaporation. This study highlights the importance of a realistic simulation of the hydrological cycle, especially the individual components of evapotranspiration, in reducing the uncertainty in our estimation of climatic response to CO2-physiological forcing. Citation: Cao, L., G. Bala, K. Caldeira, R. Nemani, and G.Ban-Weiss (2009), Climate response to physiological forcing of carbon dioxide simulated by the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1) and Community Land Model (CLM3.0).