Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called `early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.

Effect of sliding speed on friction and wear of uni-directional aramid fibre-phenolic resin composite

A previous study on the tribological performance of a compression-moulded aramid fibre-phenolic resin composite, containing 30% continuous fibre, showed that this composite provides a reasonable combination of the friction coefficient and wear rate to be used as a friction component, such as a brake shoe. In the present work, the effect of sliding speed on the friction and wear behaviour of this composite has been investigated. The sliding experiments were conducted in a speed range of 0.1-6 m s(-1) at two normal pressure levels of 1.0 and 4.9 MPa. The coefficient of friction was found to be stable over a wide range of sliding speeds and normal pressures. The wear of the composite was found to be insensitive to changes in the speed in the higher speed range. The results have been supplemented with scanning electron micrographs to help understand possible friction and wear mechanisms.

Tribological characteristics of A356 Al alloy-SiC(P) composite discs

The dry sliding wear and friction behaviour of A356 Al alloy and its composites containing 10 and 20 vol.% SiC(P) have been studied using pin-on-disc set up. In these tests, A356 Al alloy and its composites are used as disc whereas brake pad was used in the form of pins. Wear tests were carried out at a load of 192 N and the sliding speed was varied from 1 to 5 m/s. Tests were done for a sliding distance of 15 km. The effects of sliding velocity on the wear rate, coefficient of friction and nature of tribolayers formed on discs have been studied. Wear rates of composites as calculated by weight loss method, found to be negative at sliding speed of more than 2 m/s. Worn surfaces of pins and discs have been analyzed using scanning electron microscope. SEM and EDAX analysis of worn surfaces of composite discs showed formation of tribolayers, consisting of mixture of oxides of Al, Si, Cu, Ca, Ba, Mg, and Fe. In these layers, copper and barium content found to be increase with sliding speed in the case of composites. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptation of small capacity natural gas engine for producer gas operation

This article addresses the adaptation of a low-power natural gas engine for using producer gas as a fuel. The 5.9 L natural gas engine with a compression ratio of 10.5:1, rated at 55 kW shaft power, delivered 30 kW using producer gas as fuel in the naturally aspirated mode. Optimal ignition timing for peak power was found to be 20 degrees before top dead centre. Air-to-fuel ratio (A/F) was found to be 1.2 +/- 0.1 over a range of loads. Critical evaluation of the energy flows in the engine resulted in identifying losses and optimizing the engine cooling. The specific fuel consumption was found to be 1.2 +/- 0.1 kg of biomass per kilowatt hour. A reduction of 40 per cent in brake mean effective pressure was observed compared with natural gas operation. Governor response to load variations has been studied with respect to frequency recovery time. The study also attempts to adopt a turbocharger for higher power output. Preliminary results suggest a possibility of about 30 per cent increase in the output.

Strategies for high efficiency and stability in biogas-fuelled small engines

This work assesses the performance of small biogas-fuelled engines and explores high-efficiency strategies for power generation in the very low power range of less than 1000 W. Experiments were performed on a small 95-cc, single-cylinder, four-stroke spark-ignition engine operating on biogas. The engine was operated in two modes, i.e., `premixed' and `fuel injection' modes, using both single and dual spark plug configurations. Measurements of in-cylinder pressure, crank angle, brake power, air and fuel flow rates, and exhaust emissions were conducted. Cycle-to-cycle variations in engine in-cylinder pressure and power were also studied and assessed quantitatively for various loading conditions. Results suggest that biogas combustion can be fairly sensitive to the ignition strategies thereby affecting the power output and efficiency. Further, results indicate that continuous fuel injection shows superior performance compared to the premixed case especially at low loads owing to possible charge stratification in the engine cylinder. Overall, this study has demonstrated for the first time that a combination of technologies such as lean burn, fuel injection, and dual spark plug ignition can provide highly efficient and stable operation in a biogas-fuelled small S.I. engine, especially in the low power range of 450-1000W. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data.

Selection and thermodynamic analysis of a turbocharger for a producer gas-fuelled multi-cylinder engine

The current work addresses the use of producer gas, a bio-derived gaseous alternative fuel, in engines designed for natural gas, derived from diesel engine frames. Impact of the use of producer gas on the general engine performance with specific focus on turbo-charging is addressed. The operation of a particular engine frame with diesel, natural gas and producer gas indicates that the peak load achieved is highest with diesel fuel (in compression ignition mode) followed by natural gas and producer gas (both in spark ignite mode). Detailed analysis of the engine power de-rating on fuelling with natural gas and producer gas indicates that the change in compression ratio (migration from compression to spark ignited mode), difference in mixture calorific value and turbocharger mismatch are the primary contributing factors. The largest de-rating occurs due to turbocharger mismatch. Turbocharger selection and optimization is identified as the strategy to recover the non-thermodynamic power loss, identified as the recovery potential (the loss due to mixture calorific value and turbocharger mismatch) on operating the engine with a fuel different from the base fuel. A turbocharged after-cooled six cylinder, 5.9 l, 90 kWe (diesel rating) engine (12.2 bar BMEP) is available commercially as a naturally aspirated natural gas engine delivering a peak load of 44.0 kWe (6.0 bar BMEP). The engine delivers a load of 27.3 kWe with producer gas under naturally aspirated mode. On charge boosting the engine with a turbocharger similar in configuration to the diesel engine turbocharger, the peak load delivered with producer gas is 36 kWe (4.8 bar BMEP) indicating a de-rating of about 60% over the baseline diesel mode. Estimation of knock limited peak load for producer gas-fuelled operation on the engine frame using a Wiebe function-based zero-dimensional code indicates a knock limited peak load of 76 kWe, indicating the potential to recover about 40 kWe. As a part of the recovery strategy, optimizing the ignition timing for maximum brake torque based on both spark sweep tests and established combustion descriptors and engine-turbocharger matching for producer gas-fuelled operation resulted in a knock limited peak load of 72.8 kWe (9.9 bar BMEP) at a compressor pressure ratio of 2.30. The de-rating of about 17.0 kWe compared to diesel rating is attributed to the reduction in compression ratio. With load recovery, the specific biomass consumption reduces from 1.2 kg/kWh to 1.0 kg/kWh, an improvement of over 16% while the engine thermal efficiency increases from 28% to 32%. The thermodynamic analysis of the compressor and the turbine indicates an isentropic efficiency of 74.5% and 73%, respectively.

Influence of fuel hydrogen fraction on syngas fueled SI engine: Fuel thermo-physical property analysis and in-cylinder experimental investigations

Hydrogen, either in pure form or as a gaseous fuel mixture specie enhances the fuel conversion efficiency and reduce emissions in an internal combustion engine. This is due to the reduction in combustion duration attributed to higher laminar flame speeds. Hydrogen is also expected to increase the engine convective heat flux, attributed (directly or indirectly) to parameters like higher adiabatic flame temperature, laminar flame speed, thermal conductivity and diffusivity and lower flame quenching distance. These factors (adversely) affect the thermo-kinematic response and offset some of the benefits. The current work addresses the influence of mixture hydrogen fraction in syngas on the engine energy balance and the thermo-kinematic response for close to stoichiometric operating conditions. Four different bio-derived syngas compositions with fuel calorific value varying from 3.14 MJ/kg to 7.55 MJ/kg and air fuel mixture hydrogen fraction varying from 7.1% to 14.2% by volume are used. The analysis comprises of (a) use of chemical kinetics simulation package CHEMKIN for quantifying the thermo-physical properties (b) 0-D model for engine in-cylinder analysis and (c) in-cylinder investigations on a two-cylinder engine in open loop cooling mode for quantifying the thermo-kinematic response and engine energy balance. With lower adiabatic flame temperature for Syngas, the in-cylinder heat transfer analysis suggests that temperature has little effect in terms of increasing the heat flux. For typical engine like conditions (700 K and 25 bar at CR of 10), the laminar flame speed for syngas exceeds that of methane (55.5 cm/s) beyond mixture hydrogen fraction of 11% and is attributed to the increase in H based radicals. This leads to a reduction in the effective Lewis number and laminar flame thickness, potentially inducing flame instability and cellularity. Use of a thermodynamic model to assess the isolated influence of thermal conductivity and diffusivity on heat flux suggests an increase in the peak heat flux between 2% and 15% for the lowest (0.420 MW/m(2)) and highest (0.480 MW/m(2)) hydrogen containing syngas over methane (0.415 MW/m(2)) fueled operation. Experimental investigations indicate the engine cooling load for syngas fueled engine is higher by about 7% and 12% as compared to methane fueled operation; the losses are seen to increase with increasing mixture hydrogen fraction. Increase in the gas to electricity efficiency is observed from 18% to 24% as the mixture hydrogen fraction increases from 7.1% to 9.5%. Further increase in mixture hydrogen fraction to 14.2% results in the reduction of efficiency to 23%; argued due to the changes in the initial and terminal stages of combustion. On doubling of mixture hydrogen fraction, the flame kernel development and fast burn phase duration decrease by about 7% and 10% respectively and the terminal combustion duration, corresponding to 90%-98% mass burn, increases by about 23%. This increase in combustion duration arises from the cooling of the near wall mixture in the boundary layer attributed to the presence of hydrogen. The enhancement in engine cooling load and subsequent reduction in the brake thermal efficiency with increasing hydrogen fraction is evident from the engine energy balance along with the cumulative heat release profiles. Copyright (C) 2015, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.