Error, Confidence, and Cost in Engineering Computations

The questions that one should answer in engineering computations - deterministic, probabilistic/randomized, as well as heuristic - are (i) how good the computed results/outputs are and (ii) how much the cost in terms of amount of computation and the amount of storage utilized in getting the outputs is. The absolutely errorfree quantities as well as the completely errorless computations done in a natural process can never be captured by any means that we have at our disposal. While the computations including the input real quantities in nature/natural processes are exact, all the computations that we do using a digital computer or are carried out in an embedded form are never exact. The input data for such computations are also never exact because any measuring instrument has inherent error of a fixed order associated with it and this error, as a matter of hypothesis and not as a matter of assumption, is not less than 0.005 per cent. Here by error we imply relative error bounds. The fact that exact error is never known under any circumstances and any context implies that the term error is nothing but error-bounds. Further, in engineering computations, it is the relative error or, equivalently, the relative error-bounds (and not the absolute error) which is supremely important in providing us the information regarding the quality of the results/outputs. Another important fact is that inconsistency and/or near-consistency in nature, i.e., in problems created from nature is completely nonexistent while in our modelling of the natural problems we may introduce inconsistency or near-inconsistency due to human error or due to inherent non-removable error associated with any measuring device or due to assumptions introduced to make the problem solvable or more easily solvable in practice. Thus if we discover any inconsistency or possibly any near-inconsistency in a mathematical model, it is certainly due to any or all of the three foregoing factors. We do, however, go ahead to solve such inconsistent/near-consistent problems and do get results that could be useful in real-world situations. The talk considers several deterministic, probabilistic, and heuristic algorithms in numerical optimisation, other numerical and statistical computations, and in PAC (probably approximately correct) learning models. It highlights the quality of the results/outputs through specifying relative error-bounds along with the associated confidence level, and the cost, viz., amount of computations and that of storage through complexity. It points out the limitation in error-free computations (wherever possible, i.e., where the number of arithmetic operations is finite and is known a priori) as well as in the usage of interval arithmetic. Further, the interdependence among the error, the confidence, and the cost is discussed.

Non-linear regression model for spatial variation in precipitation chemistry for South India

Chemical composition of rainwater changes from sea to inland under the influence of several major factors - topographic location of area, its distance from sea, annual rainfall. A model is developed here to quantify the variation in precipitation chemistry under the influence of inland distance and rainfall amount. Various sites in India categorized as 'urban', 'suburban' and 'rural' have been considered for model development. pH, HCO3, NO3 and Mg do not change much from coast to inland while, SO4 and Ca change is subjected to local emissions. Cl and Na originate solely from sea salinity and are the chemistry parameters in the model. Non-linear multiple regressions performed for the various categories revealed that both rainfall amount and precipitation chemistry obeyed a power law reduction with distance from sea. Cl and Na decrease rapidly for the first 100 km distance from sea, then decrease marginally for the next 100 km, and later stabilize. Regression parameters estimated for different cases were found to be consistent (R-2 similar to 0.8). Variation in one of the parameters accounted for urbanization. Model was validated using data points from the southern peninsular region of the country. Estimates are found to be within 99.9% confidence interval. Finally, this relationship between the three parameters - rainfall amount, coastline distance, and concentration (in terms of Cl and Na) was validated with experiments conducted in a small experimental watershed in the south-west India. Chemistry estimated using the model was in good correlation with observed values with a relative error of similar to 5%. Monthly variation in the chemistry is predicted from a downscaling model and then compared with the observed data. Hence, the model developed for rain chemistry is useful in estimating the concentrations at different spatio-temporal scales and is especially applicable for south-west region of India. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strong-coupling expansion for the momentum distribution of the Bose-Hubbard model with benchmarking against exact numerical results

A strong-coupling expansion for the Green's functions, self-energies, and correlation functions of the Bose-Hubbard model is developed. We illustrate the general formalism, which includes all possible (normal-phase) inhomogeneous effects in the formalism, such as disorder or a trap potential, as well as effects of thermal excitations. The expansion is then employed to calculate the momentum distribution of the bosons in the Mott phase for an infinite homogeneous periodic system at zero temperature through third order in the hopping. By using scaling theory for the critical behavior at zero momentum and at the critical value of the hopping for the Mott insulator–to–superfluid transition along with a generalization of the random-phase-approximation-like form for the momentum distribution, we are able to extrapolate the series to infinite order and produce very accurate quantitative results for the momentum distribution in a simple functional form for one, two, and three dimensions. The accuracy is better in higher dimensions and is on the order of a few percent relative error everywhere except close to the critical value of the hopping divided by the on-site repulsion. In addition, we find simple phenomenological expressions for the Mott-phase lobes in two and three dimensions which are much more accurate than the truncated strong-coupling expansions and any other analytic approximation we are aware of. The strong-coupling expansions and scaling-theory results are benchmarked against numerically exact quantum Monte Carlo simulations in two and three dimensions and against density-matrix renormalization-group calculations in one dimension. These analytic expressions will be useful for quick comparison of experimental results to theory and in many cases can bypass the need for expensive numerical simulations.

Extended Muskingum method for flood routing

Routing of floods is essential to control the flood flow at the flood control station such that it is within the specified safe limit. In this paper, the applicability of the extended Muskingum method is examined for routing of floods for a case study of Hirakud reservoir, Mahanadi river basin, India. The inflows to the flood control station are of two types-one controllable which comprises of reservoir releases for power and spill and the other is uncontrollable which comprises of inflow from lower tributaries and intermediate catchment between the reservoir and the flood control station. Muskingum model is improved to incorporate multiple sources of inflows and single outflow to route the flood in the reach. Instead of time lag and prismoidal flow parameters, suitable coefficients for various types of inflows were derived using Linear Programming. Presently, the decisions about operation of gates of Hirakud dam are being taken once in 12 h during floods. However, four time intervals of 24, 18, 12 and 6 h are examined to test the sensitivity of the routing time interval on the computed flood flow at the flood control station. It is observed that mean relative error decreases with decrease in routing interval both for calibration and testing phase. It is concluded that the extended Muskingum method can be explored for similar reservoir configurations such as Hirakud reservoir with suitable modifications. (C) 2010 International Association of Hydro-environment Engineering and Research. Asia Pacific Division. Published by Elsevier By. All rights reserved.

Nonquadratic penalization improves near-infrared diffuse optical tomography

A new approach that can easily incorporate any generic penalty function into the diffuse optical tomographic image reconstruction is introduced to show the utility of nonquadratic penalty functions. The penalty functions that were used include quadratic (l(2)), absolute (l(1)), Cauchy, and Geman-McClure. The regularization parameter in each of these cases was obtained automatically by using the generalized cross-validation method. The reconstruction results were systematically compared with each other via utilization of quantitative metrics, such as relative error and Pearson correlation. The reconstruction results indicate that, while the quadratic penalty may be able to provide better separation between two closely spaced targets, its contrast recovery capability is limited, and the sparseness promoting penalties, such as l(1), Cauchy, and Geman-McClure have better utility in reconstructing high-contrast and complex-shaped targets, with the Geman-McClure penalty being the most optimal one. (C) 2013 Optical Society of America

Ranking of global climate models for India using multicriterion analysis

Eleven GCMs (BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1) were evaluated for India (covering 73 grid points of 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for the climate variable `precipitation rate' using 5 performance indicators. Performance indicators used were the correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square error, absolute normalised mean bias error, average absolute relative error and skill score. We used a nested bias correction methodology to remove the systematic biases in GCM simulations. The Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of these 5 indicators. Ranks of the 11 GCMs were obtained through a multicriterion decision-making outranking method, PROMETHEE-2 (Preference Ranking Organisation Method of Enrichment Evaluation). An equal weight scenario (assigning 0.2 weight for each indicator) was also used to rank the GCMs. An effort was also made to rank GCMs for 4 river basins (Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi and Cauvery) in peninsular India. The upper Malaprabha catchment in Karnataka, India, was chosen to demonstrate the Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the association between the ranking patterns. Our results suggest that the ensemble of GFDL2.0, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0, UKMO-HADCM3, MPIECHAM4 and UKMO-HADGEM1 is suitable for India. The methodology proposed can be extended to rank GCMs for any selected region.

Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Amino Acids in Aqueous Solutions: Estimating pK(a) Values from Metadynamics Sampling

Changes in the protonation and deprotonation of amino acid residues in proteins play a key role in many biological processes and pathways. Here, we report calculations of the free-energy profile for the protonation deprotonation reaction of the 20 canonical alpha amino acids in aqueous solutions using ab initio Car-Parrinello molecular dynamics simulations coupled with metad-ynamics sampling. We show here that the calculated change in free energy of the dissociation reaction provides estimates of the multiple pK(a) values of the amino acids that are in good agreement with experiment. We use the bond-length-dependent number of the protons coordinated to the hydroxyl oxygen of the carboxylic and the amine groups as the collective variables to explore the free-energy profiles of the Bronsted acid-base chemistry of amino acids in aqueous solutions. We ensure that the amino acid undergoing dissociation is solvated by at least three hydrations shells with all water molecules included in the simulations. The method works equally well for amino acids with neutral, acidic and basic side chains and provides estimates of the multiple pK(a) values with a mean relative error, with respect to experimental results, of 0.2 pK(a) units.

Mesh-free approximations via the error reproducing kernel method and applications to nonlinear systems developing shocks

Error estimates for the error reproducing kernel method (ERKM) are provided. The ERKM is a mesh-free functional approximation scheme [A. Shaw, D. Roy, A NURBS-based error reproducing kernel method with applications in solid mechanics, Computational Mechanics (2006), to appear (available online)], wherein a targeted function and its derivatives are first approximated via non-uniform rational B-splines (NURBS) basis function. Errors in the NURBS approximation are then reproduced via a family of non-NURBS basis functions, constructed using a polynomial reproduction condition, and added to the NURBS approximation of the function obtained in the first step. In addition to the derivation of error estimates, convergence studies are undertaken for a couple of test boundary value problems with known exact solutions. The ERKM is next applied to a one-dimensional Burgers equation where, time evolution leads to a breakdown of the continuous solution and the appearance of a shock. Many available mesh-free schemes appear to be unable to capture this shock without numerical instability. However, given that any desired order of continuity is achievable through NURBS approximations, the ERKM can even accurately approximate functions with discontinuous derivatives. Moreover, due to the variation diminishing property of NURBS, it has advantages in representing sharp changes in gradients. This paper is focused on demonstrating this ability of ERKM via some numerical examples. Comparisons of some of the results with those via the standard form of the reproducing kernel particle method (RKPM) demonstrate the relative numerical advantages and accuracy of the ERKM.

Dynamics of dense sheared granular flows. Part II. The relative velocity distributions

The distribution of relative velocities between colliding particles in shear flows of inelastic spheres is analysed in the Volume fraction range 0.4-0.64. Particle interactions are considered to be due to instantaneous binary collisions, and the collision model has a normal coefficient of restitution e(n) (negative of the ratio of the post- and pre-collisional relative velocities of the particles along the line joining the centres) and a tangential coefficient of restitution e(t) (negative of the ratio of post- and pre-collisional velocities perpendicular to line joining the centres). The distribution or pre-collisional normal relative velocities (along the line Joining the centres of the particles) is Found to be an exponential distribution for particles with low normal coefficient of restitution in the range 0.6-0.7. This is in contrast to the Gaussian distribution for the normal relative velocity in all elastic fluid in the absence of shear. A composite distribution function, which consists of an exponential and a Gaussian component, is proposed to span the range of inelasticities considered here. In the case of roughd particles, the relative velocity tangential to the surfaces at contact is also evaluated, and it is found to be close to a Gaussian distribution even for highly inelastic particles.Empirical relations are formulated for the relative velocity distribution. These are used to calculate the collisional contributions to the pressure, shear stress and the energy dissipation rate in a shear flow. The results of the calculation were round to be in quantitative agreement with simulation results, even for low coefficients of restitution for which the predictions obtained using the Enskog approximation are in error by an order of magnitude. The results are also applied to the flow down an inclined plane, to predict the angle of repose and the variation of the volume fraction with angle of inclination. These results are also found to be in quantitative agreement with previous simulations.

Instability of Coupled Longitudinal and Transverse Electromagnetic Modes of Wave‐Propagation in Bounded Streaming Plasmas

The instability of coupled longitudinal and transverse electromagnetic modes associated with long wavelengths is studied in bounded streaming plasmas. The main conclusions are as follows: (i) For long waves for which O (k 2)=0, in the absence of relative streaming motion of electrons and ions and aωp/c<0.66, the whole spectrum of harmonic waves is excited due to finite temperature and boundary effects consisting of two subseries. One of these subseries can be identified with Tonks-Dattner resonance oscillations for the electrons, and arises primarily due to the electrons with frequencies greater than the electrostatic plasma frequency corresponding to the electron density in the midplane in the undisturbed state. The other series arises primarily due to ion motion. When aωp/c>0.66, in addition to the above spectrum of harmonic waves, the system admits an infinite number of growing and decaying waves. The instability associated with these modes is found to arise due to the interaction of the waves inside the plasma with the external electromagnetic field. (ii) For modes with comparatively shorter wavelengths for which O (k3)=0, the coupling due to finite temperature sets in, and it is found that the two series of harmonic waves obtained in (i) deriving energy from the transverse modes also become unstable. Thus, for these wavelengths the system admits three sets of growing and decaying modes, first two for all values of aωp/c and the third for (aωp/c) > 0.66. (iii) The presence of streaming velocities introduces various other coupling mechanisms, and we find that even for the wavelengths for which O (k2)=0, we get three sets of growing and decaying waves. The numerical values for the growth rates show that the streaming velocities enhance the growth rates of instability significantly.

Evaluation of TRMM PR Sampling Error Over a Subtropical Basin Using Bootstrap Technique

Quantitative use of satellite-derived rainfall products for various scientific applications often requires them to be accompanied with an error estimate. Rainfall estimates inferred from low earth orbiting satellites like the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) will be subjected to sampling errors of nonnegligible proportions owing to the narrow swath of satellite sensors coupled with a lack of continuous coverage due to infrequent satellite visits. The authors investigate sampling uncertainty of seasonal rainfall estimates from the active sensor of TRMM, namely, Precipitation Radar (PR), based on 11 years of PR 2A25 data product over the Indian subcontinent. In this paper, a statistical bootstrap technique is investigated to estimate the relative sampling errors using the PR data themselves. Results verify power law scaling characteristics of relative sampling errors with respect to space-time scale of measurement. Sampling uncertainty estimates for mean seasonal rainfall were found to exhibit seasonal variations. To give a practical example of the implications of the bootstrap technique, PR relative sampling errors over a subtropical river basin of Mahanadi, India, are examined. Results reveal that the bootstrap technique incurs relative sampling errors < 33% (for the 2 degrees grid), < 36% (for the 1 degrees grid), < 45% (for the 0.5 degrees grid), and < 57% (for the 0.25 degrees grid). With respect to rainfall type, overall sampling uncertainty was found to be dominated by sampling uncertainty due to stratiform rainfall over the basin. The study compares resulting error estimates to those obtained from latin hypercube sampling. Based on this study, the authors conclude that the bootstrap approach can be successfully used for ascertaining relative sampling errors offered by TRMM-like satellites over gauged or ungauged basins lacking in situ validation data. This technique has wider implications for decision making before incorporating microwave orbital data products in basin-scale hydrologic modeling.

Einstein Relation in n-Channel Inversion Layers of Nonlinear Optical, Optoelectronic and Related Materials: Simplified Theory, Relative Comparison and Suggestion for an Experimental Determination

In this paper, we study the Einstein relation for the diffusivity to mobility ratio (DMR) in n-channel inversion layers of non-linear optical materials on the basis of a newly formulated electron dispersion relation by considering their special properties within the frame work of k.p formalism. The results for the n-channel inversion layers of III-V, ternary and quaternary materials form a special case of our generalized analysis. The DMR for n-channel inversion layers of II-VI, IV-VI and stressed materials has been investigated by formulating the respective 2D electron dispersion laws. It has been found, taking n-channel inversion layers of CdGeAs2, Cd(3)AS(2), InAs, InSb, Hg1-xCdxTe, In1-xGaxAsyP1-y lattice matched to InP, CdS, PbTe, PbSnTe, Pb1-xSnxSe and stressed InSb as examples, that the DMR increases with the increasing surface electric field with different numerical values and the nature of the variations are totally band structure dependent. The well-known expression of the DMR for wide gap materials has been obtained as a special case under certain limiting conditions and this compatibility is an indirect test for our generalized formalism. Besides, an experimental method of determining the 2D DMR for n-channel inversion layers having arbitrary dispersion laws has been suggested.

Revision of JANAF (1985) data for C2H2(g)

There is an error in the JANAF (1985) data on the standard enthalpy, Gibbs energy and equilibrium constant for the formation of C2H2 (g) from elements. The error has arisen on account of an incorrect expression used for computing these parameters from the heat capacity, entropy and the relative heat content. Presented in this paper are the corrected values of the enthalpy, the Gibbs energy of formation and the corresponding equilibrium constant.

A Global Constraint On Relative Rotation To Avoid Lumped Compliant Mechanisms In Topology Optimization

Some of the well known formulations for topology optimization of compliant mechanisms could lead to lumped compliant mechanisms. In lumped compliance, most of the elastic deformation in a mechanism occurs at few points, while rest of the mechanism remains more or less rigid. Such points are referred to as point-flexures. It has been noted in literature that high relative rotation is associated with point-flexures. In literature we also find a formulation of local constraint on relative rotations to avoid lumped compliance. However it is well known that a global constraint is easier to handle than a local constraint, by a numerical optimization algorithm. The current work presents a way of putting global constraint on relative rotations. This constraint is also simpler to implement since it uses linearized rotation at the center of finite-elements, to compute relative rotations. I show the results obtained by using this constraint oil the following benchmark problems - displacement inverter and gripper.

Relative Stabilities of Layered Perovskite and Pyrochlore Structures in Transition Metal-Oxides Containing Trivalent Bismuth

In order to investigate the factors determining the relative stabilities of layered perovskite and pyrochlore structures of transition metal oxides containing trivalent bismuth, several ternary and quaternary oxides have been investigated. While d0 cations stabilize the layered perovskite structure, cations containing partially-filled d orbitals (which suppress ferroelectric distortion of MO6 octahedra) seem to favor pyrochlore-related structures. Thus, the vanadium analogue of the layered perovskite Bi4Ti3O12 cannot be prepared; instead the composition consists of a mixture of pyrochlore-type Bi1.33V2O6, Bi2O3, and Bi metal. The distortion of Bi1.33V2O6 to orthorhombic symmetry is probably due to an ordering of anion vacancies in the pyrochlore structure. None of the other pyrochlores investigated, Bi2NbCrO7, Bi2NbFeO7, TlBiM2O7 (M = Nb, Ta), shows evidence for cation ordering in the X-Ray diffraction patterns, as indeed established by structure refinement of TlBiNb2O7.