Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian and Decision Tree Approaches for Pattern Recognition Including Feature Measurement Costs

The minimum cost classifier when general cost functionsare associated with the tasks of feature measurement and classification is formulated as a decision graph which does not reject class labels at intermediate stages. Noting its complexities, a heuristic procedure to simplify this scheme to a binary decision tree is presented. The optimizationof the binary tree in this context is carried out using ynamicprogramming. This technique is applied to the voiced-unvoiced-silence classification in speech processing.

Fuzzy Logic-Based Approaches in Water Resource System Modelling

Recent research in modelling uncertainty in water resource systems has highlighted the use of fuzzy logic-based approaches. A number of research contributions exist in the literature that deal with uncertainty in water resource systems including fuzziness, subjectivity, imprecision and lack of adequate data. This chapter presents a broad overview of the fuzzy logic-based approaches adopted in addressing uncertainty in water resource systems modelling. Applications of fuzzy rule-based systems and fuzzy optimisation are then discussed. Perspectives on the scope for further research are presented.

Tuning of PID controllers for water networks—different approaches

Better operational control of water networks can help reduce leakage, maintain pressure, and control flow. Proportional integral derivative (PID) controllers, with proper fine-tuning, can help water utility operators achieve targets faster without creating undue transients. The authors compared three tuning methods, in different test situations, involving flow and level control to different reservoirs. Although target values were reached with all three tuning methods, the methods’ performances varied significantly. The lowest performer among the three was the method most widely used in the industry—standard tuning by the Ziegler-Nichols method. Achieving better results was offline tuning by genetic algorithms. Achieving the best control, though, was a fuzzy logic–based online tuning approach—the FZPID controller. The FZPID controller had fewer overshoots and took significantly less time to tune the gains for each problem. This new tuning approach for PID controllers can be applied to a variety of problems and can increase the performance of water networks of any size and structure

Some direct numerical approaches to the solution of the singular nonlinear transonic integral equation

The nonlinear singular integral equation of transonic flow is examined, noting that standard numerical techniques are not applicable in solving it. The difficulties in approximating the integral term in this expression were solved by special methods mitigating the inaccuracies caused by standard approximations. It was shown how the infinite domain of integration can be reduced to a finite one; numerical results were plotted demonstrating that the methods proposed here improve accuracy and computational economy.

Embryogenesis in flowering plants: Recent approaches and prospects

The overall architectural pattern of the mature plant is established during embryogenesis. Very little is known about the molecular processes that underlie embryo morphogenesis. Last decade has, nevertheless, seen a burst of information on the subject. The synchronous somatic embryogenesis system of carrot is largely being used as the experimental system. Information on the molecular regulation of embryogenesis obtained with carrot somatic embryos as well as observations on sandalwood embryogenic system developed in our laboratory are summarized in this review. The basic experimental strategy of molecular analysis mostly relied on a comparison between genes and proteins being expressed in embryogenic and non-embryogenic cells as well as in the different stages of embryogenesis. Events such as expression of totipotency of cells and establishment of polarity which are so critical for embryo development have been characterized using the strategy, Several genes have been identified and cloned from the carrot system, These include sequences that encode certain extracellular proteins (EPs) that influence cell proliferation and embryogenesis in specific ways and sequences of the abscisic acid (ABA) inducible late embryogenesis abundant (LEA) proteins which are most abundant and differentially expressed mRNAs in somatic embryos. That LEAs are expressed in the somatic embryos of a tree flora also is evidenced from studies on sandalwood Several undescribed or novel sequences that are enhanced in embryos were identified. A sequence of this nature exists in sandalwood embryos was demonstrated using a Cuscuta haustorial (organ-specific) cDNA probe. Somatic embryogenesis systems have been used to assess the expression of genes isolated from non-embryogenic tissues. Particular attention has been focused on both cell cycle and histone genes.

New Approaches to the Cannizzaro and Tishchenko Reactions

It is demonstrated that the titled reactions are best carried out at high concentrations, as indicated by mechanistic considerations: the observed high reaction orders and the possibility that the Cannizzaro reaction is driven by the hydrophobic effect, which effects proximity between the two molecules of the aldehyde reactant. The present studies have led to improved conditions, simplified workup, and excellent yields of products. The Tishchenko reaction converted benzaldehyde to benzyl benzoate with catalytic NaOMe/tetrahydrafuran in good yield, which is apparently unprecedented for this product of high commercial value.

A Bayesian incentive compatible mechanism for decentralized supply chain formation

In this paper we consider a decentralized supply chain formation problem for linear multi-echelon supply chains when the managers of the individual echelons are autonomous, rational, and intelligent. At each echelon, there is a choice of service providers and the specific problem we solve is that of determining a cost-optimal mix of service providers so as to achieve a desired level of end-to-end delivery performance. The problem can be broken up into two sub-problems following a mechanism design approach: (1) Design of an incentive compatible mechanism to elicit the true cost functions from the echelon managers; (2) Formulation and solution of an appropriate optimization problem using the true cost information. In this paper we propose a novel Bayesian incentive compatible mechanism for eliciting the true cost functions. This improves upon existing solutions in the literature which are all based on the classical Vickrey-Clarke-Groves mechanisms, requiring significant incentives to be paid to the echelon managers for achieving dominant strategy incentive compatibility. The proposed solution, which we call SCF-BIC (Supply Chain Formation with Bayesian Incentive Compatibility), significantly reduces the cost of supply chain formation. We illustrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology using the example of a three echelon manufacturing supply chain.

Broadcast in Ad hoc Wireless Networks with Selfish Nodes: A Bayesian Incentive Compatibility Approach

We consider the incentive compatible broadcast (ICB) problem in ad hoc wireless networks with selfish nodes. We design a Bayesian incentive compatible Broadcast (BIC-B) protocol to address this problem. VCG mechanism based schemes have been popularly used in the literature to design dominant strategy incentive compatible (DSIC) protocols for ad hoe wireless networks. VCG based mechanisms have two critical limitations: (i) the network is required to he bi-connected, (ii) the resulting protocol is not budget balanced. Our proposed BIC-B protocol overcomes these difficulties. We also prove the optimality of the proposed scheme.

GMM based Bayesian approach to speech enhancement in signal transform domain

Considering a general linear model of signal degradation, by modeling the probability density function (PDF) of the clean signal using a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and additive noise by a Gaussian PDF, we derive the minimum mean square error (MMSE) estimator. The derived MMSE estimator is non-linear and the linear MMSE estimator is shown to be a special case. For speech signal corrupted by independent additive noise, by modeling the joint PDF of time-domain speech samples of a speech frame using a GMM, we propose a speech enhancement method based on the derived MMSE estimator. We also show that the same estimator can be used for transform-domain speech enhancement.

Single-resolution and multiresolution extended-Kalman-filter-based reconstruction approaches to optical refraction tomography

The problem of reconstruction of a refractive-index distribution (RID) in optical refraction tomography (ORT) with optical path-length difference (OPD) data is solved using two adaptive-estimation-based extended-Kalman-filter (EKF) approaches. First, a basic single-resolution EKF (SR-EKF) is applied to a state variable model describing the tomographic process, to estimate the RID of an optically transparent refracting object from noisy OPD data. The initialization of the biases and covariances corresponding to the state and measurement noise is discussed. The state and measurement noise biases and covariances are adaptively estimated. An EKF is then applied to the wavelet-transformed state variable model to yield a wavelet-based multiresolution EKF (MR-EKF) solution approach. To numerically validate the adaptive EKF approaches, we evaluate them with benchmark studies of standard stationary cases, where comparative results with commonly used efficient deterministic approaches can be obtained. Detailed reconstruction studies for the SR-EKF and two versions of the MR-EKF (with Haar and Daubechies-4 wavelets) compare well with those obtained from a typically used variant of the (deterministic) algebraic reconstruction technique, the average correction per projection method, thus establishing the capability of the EKF for ORT. To the best of our knowledge, the present work contains unique reconstruction studies encompassing the use of EKF for ORT in single-resolution and multiresolution formulations, and also in the use of adaptive estimation of the EKF's noise covariances. (C) 2010 Optical Society of America

Approaches to sesquiterpenes containing three contiguous quaternary carbon atoms. Synthesis of 3-methoxythapsene

Synthetic approach to 3-alkoxythapsane, comprising of the carbon framework of a small group of sesquiterpenes containing three contiguous quaternary carbon atoms has been described. A combination of alkylation, orthoester Claisen rearrangement and intramolecular diazoketone cyclopropanation has been employed for the creation of the three requisite contiguous quaternary carbon atoms.

Data mining approaches to software fault diagnosis

Automatic identification of software faults has enormous practical significance. This requires characterizing program execution behavior and the use of appropriate data mining techniques on the chosen representation. In this paper, we use the sequence of system calls to characterize program execution. The data mining tasks addressed are learning to map system call streams to fault labels and automatic identification of fault causes. Spectrum kernels and SVM are used for the former while latent semantic analysis is used for the latter The techniques are demonstrated for the intrusion dataset containing system call traces. The results show that kernel techniques are as accurate as the best available results but are faster by orders of magnitude. We also show that latent semantic indexing is capable of revealing fault-specific features.

Second order cone programming approaches for handling missing and uncertain data

We propose a novel second order cone programming formulation for designing robust classifiers which can handle uncertainty in observations. Similar formulations are also derived for designing regression functions which are robust to uncertainties in the regression setting. The proposed formulations are independent of the underlying distribution, requiring only the existence of second order moments. These formulations are then specialized to the case of missing values in observations for both classification and regression problems. Experiments show that the proposed formulations outperform imputation.

New computational approaches for wrinkled and slack membranes

The static response of thin, wrinkled membranes is studied using both a tension field approximation based on plane stress conditions and a 3D nonlinear elasticityformulation, discretized through 8-noded Cosserat point elements. While the tension field approach only obtains the wrinkled/slack regions and at best a measure of the extent of wrinkliness, the 3D elasticity solution provides, in principle, the deformed shape of a wrinkled/slack membrane. However, since membranes barely resist compression, the discretized and linearized system equations via both the approaches are ill-conditioned and solutions could thus be sensitive to discretizations errors as well as other sources of noises/imperfections. We propose a regularized, pseudo-dynamical recursion scheme that provides a sequence of updates, which are almost insensitive to theregularizing term as well as the time step size used for integrating the pseudo-dynamical form. This is borne out through several numerical examples wherein the relative performance of the proposed recursion scheme vis-a-vis a regularized Newton strategy is compared. The pseudo-time marching strategy, when implemented using 3D Cosserat point elements, also provides a computationally cheaper, numerically accurate and simpler alternative to that using geometrically exact shell theories for computing large deformations of membranes in the presence of wrinkles. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.