The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.

Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2-3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean. Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline. The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of a convective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.

On the role of cloud adjustment time scale in simulating precipitation with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert convection scheme

The precipitation by Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization in a General Circulation Model (GCM) is sensitive to the choice of relaxation parameter or specified cloud adjustment time scale. In the present study, we examine sensitivity of simulated precipitation to the choice of cloud adjustment time scale (tau(adj)) over different parts of the tropics using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM) during June-September. The results show that a single specified value of tau(adj) performs best only over a particular region and different values are preferred over different parts of the world. To find a relation between tau(adj) and cloud depth (convective activity) we choose six regions over the tropics. Based on the observed relation between outgoing long-wave radiation and tau(adj), we propose a linear cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter to be used in the model. The simulations over most parts of the tropics show improved results due to this newly formulated cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter.

Role of the cloud adjustment time scale in simulation of the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

The simulation of precipitation in a general circulation model relying on relaxed mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme is sensitive to cloud adjustment time scale (CATS). In this study, the frequency of the dominant intra-seasonal mode and interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model is shown to be sensitive to the CATS. It has been shown that a longer CATS of about 5 h simulates the spatial distribution of the ISMR better. El Nio Southern Oscillation-ISMR relationship is also sensitive to CATS. The equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall and ISMR coupling is sensitive to CATS. Our study suggests that a careful choice of CATS is necessary for adequate simulation of spatial pattern as well as interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon precipitation.

Secondary instability as a possible mechanism for clear-air turbulence: a case study

Many theories and mechanisms have been proposed to explain the phenomenon of clear-air turbulence (CAT), and some of them have been successful in predicting light, moderate and, in some cases, severe turbulence. It is only recently that skill in the forecasting of the severe form of CAT, which could lead to injuries to passengers and damage to aircraft, has improved. Recent observations and simulations suggest that some severe to extreme turbulence could be caused by horizontal vortex tubes resulting from secondary instabilities of regions of high shear in the atmosphere. We have conducted direct numerical simulations to understand the scale relationship between primary structures (larger-scale structures related to one of the causes mentioned above) and secondary structures (smaller-sized, shear structures of the size of aircraft). From shear layer simulations, we find that the ratio of sizes of primary and secondary vortices is of the right order to generate aircraft-scale vortex tubes from typical atmospheric shear layers. We have also conducted simulations with a mesoscale atmospheric model, to understand possible causes of turbulence experienced by a flight off the west coast of India. Our simulations show the occurrence of primary flow structures related to synoptic conditions around the time of the incident. The evidence presented for this mechanism also has implications for possible methods of detection and avoidance of severe CAT.

The impact of latent heating on the location and strength of the tropical easterly jet

The tropical easterly jet (TEJ) is a prominent atmospheric circulation feature observed during the Asian summer monsoon. It is generally assumed that sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau directly influences the location of the TEJ. However, other studies have suggested the importance of latent heating in determining the jet location. In this paper, the relative importance of latent heating on the maintenance of the TEJ is explored through simulations with a general circulation model. The simulation of the TEJ by the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1 is discussed in detail. These simulations showed that the location of the TEJ is well correlated with the location of the precipitation. Significant zonal shifts in the location of the precipitation resulted in similar shifts in the zonal location of the TEJ. These zonal shifts had minimal effect on the large-scale structure of the jet. Further, provided that precipitation patterns were relatively unchanged, orography did not directly impact the location of the TEJ. These changes were robust even with changes in the cumulus parameterization. This suggests the potential important role of latent heating in determining the location and structure of the TEJ. These results were used to explain the significant differences in the zonal location of the TEJ in the years 1988 and 2002. To understand the contribution of the latitudinal location of latent heating on the strength of the TEJ, aqua-planet simulations were carried out. It has been shown that for similar amounts of net latent heating, the jet is stronger when heating is in the higher tropical latitudes. This may partly explain the reason for the jet to be very strong during the JJA monsoon season.

The physics of ENSO-monsoon connection

The physical mechanism through which Ei-Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) tends to produce deficient precipitation over Indian continent is investigated using both observations as well as a general circulation model. Both analysis of observations and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) study show that the planetary scale response associated with ENSO primarily influences the equatorial Indian Ocean region. Through this interaction it tends to favour the equatorial heat source, enhance precipitation over the equatorial Indian Ocean and indirectly cause a decrease in continental precipitation through induced subsidence. This situation is further complicated by the fact the regional tropospheric quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) has a bimodal structure over this region with large amplitude over the Indian continent. While the ENSO response has a quasi-four year periodicity and tends peak during beginning of the calendar year, the QBO mode tends to peak during northern summer. Thus, the QBO mode exerts a stronger influence on the interannual variability of the monsoon. The strength of the Indian monsoon in a given year depends on the combined effect of the ENSO and the QBO mode. Sines the two oscillations have disparate time scales, exact phase information of the two modes during northern summer is important in determining the Indian summer monsoon. The physical mechanism of the interannual variations of the Indian monsoon precipitation associated with ENSO presented here is similar to the physical process that cause intraseasonal 'active', 'break' oscillations of the monsoon.

Atmospheric Noise on the Bispectrum in Optical Speckle Interferometry

Based on a simple picture of speckle phenomena in optical interferometry it is shown that the recent signal-to-noise ratio estimate for the so called bispectrum, due to Wirnitzer (1985), does not possess the right limit when photon statistics is unimportant. In this wave-limit, which is true for bright sources, his calculations over-estimate the signal-to-noise ratio for the bispectrum by a factor of the order of the square root of the number of speckles.

Mesospheric influences on linkages between solar activity and lower atmospheric phenomena

Analyses of rocket data at mid- and high-latitude locations over the American Continent show a solar activity-dependent mesospheric heating effect in the 60 to 90 km altitude region. A study of the altitude dependence of the effect shows that the heating and associated processes propagating downwards through the mesosphere do not cause discernible effects, below the 50 to 60 km layer. At Thumba, a significant short-term heating effect attributable to varying solar ultraviolet fluxes causing variable heating of atmospheric ozone is observed. This effect does not seem to propagate downwards into the upper stratosphere.

On the Purity of Atmospheric Glow-Discharge Plasma

Purity of the glow-discharge plasma at atmospheric pressure for surface modification applications is always debatable, since it works at ambient atmosphere. We have demonstrated on the use of optical emission spectroscopy to test the purity of this kind of plasma. The effect of gas flow pattern, nature of gas, and its flow rate on the plasma chemistry was studied. The importance of proper system design in maintaining a uniform flow of heavy and inert gases as carrier gas in atmospheric glow-discharge plasma was confirmed. The surface of a plasma-treated PET sample was analyzed using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy to verify the studies on plasma purity done using emission spectrum.

Some pulse characteristics of atmospheric radio noise bursts at 3 MHz

An atmospheric radio noise burst represents the radiation received from one complete lightning flash at the frequency to which a receiver is tuned and within the receiver bandwidth. At tropical latitudes, the principal source of interference in the frequency range from 0.1 to 10 MHz is the burst form of atmospheric radio noise. The structure of a burst shows several approximately rectangular pulses of random amplitude, duration and frequency of recurrence. The influence of the noise on data communication can only be examined when the value of the number of pulses crossing a certain amplitude threshold per unit time of the noise burst is known. A pulse rate counter designed for this purpose has been used at Bangalore (12°58′N, 77°35′E) to investigate the pulse characteristics of noise bursts at 3 MHz with a receiver bandwidth of 3.3 kHz/6d B. The results show that the number of pulses lying in the amplitude range between peak and quasi-peak values of the noise bursts and the burst duration corresponding to these pulses follow log normal distributions. The pulse rates deduced therefrom show certain correlation between the number of pulses and the duration of the noise burst. The results are discussed with a view to furnish necessary information for data communication.

Chemical and microstructural modifications in LiPON thin films exposed to atmospheric humidity

Lithium phosphorus oxynitride (LiPON), the widely used solid electrolyte for thin film microbatteries, is not compatible with the ambient humid temperatures. The reasons for reduction in ionic conductivity of LiPON thin films from 2.8 x 10(-6) Scm(-1) to 9.9 x 10(-10) Scm(-1) when exposed to air are analyzed with the aid of AC impedance measurements, SEM, XPS and stylus profilometry. Initially, particulate-free film surfaces obtained soon after rf sputter deposition in N-2 ambient conditions becomes covered with microstructures, forming pores in the film when exposed to air. LiPON films are deposited on Ti coated silicon in addition to bare silicon, ruling out the possibility of stress-related rupturing from the LiPON/Si interface. The reduction of nitrogen, phosphorus, and increased presence of lithium, oxygen and carbon over the film surface lowers the ionic conductivity of LiPON films when exposed to air. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Surface modification of PDMS using atmospheric glow discharge polymerization of tetrafluoroethane for immobilization of biomolecules

In this study an atmospheric glow discharge with a fluorocarbon gas as precursor was used to modify the surface of polydimethyl siloxane (PDMS -(CH3)(2)SiO](n)-). The variation in protein immobilizing capability of PDMS was studied for different times of exposure. It was observed that the concentration of proteins adsorbed on the surface varied in an irregular manner with treatment time. The fluorination results in the formation of a thin film of fluorocarbon on the PDMS surface. The AFM and XPS data suggest that the film cracks due to stress and regains its uniformity thereafter. This Stranski-Krastanov growth model of the film was due to the high growth rate offered by atmospheric glow discharge. (C) 2011 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.