Holistic Measures for Evaluating Prediction Models in Smart Grids

The performance of prediction models is often based on ``abstract metrics'' that estimate the model's ability to limit residual errors between the observed and predicted values. However, meaningful evaluation and selection of prediction models for end-user domains requires holistic and application-sensitive performance measures. Inspired by energy consumption prediction models used in the emerging ``big data'' domain of Smart Power Grids, we propose a suite of performance measures to rationally compare models along the dimensions of scale independence, reliability, volatility and cost. We include both application independent and dependent measures, the latter parameterized to allow customization by domain experts to fit their scenario. While our measures are generalizable to other domains, we offer an empirical analysis using real energy use data for three Smart Grid applications: planning, customer education and demand response, which are relevant for energy sustainability. Our results underscore the value of the proposed measures to offer a deeper insight into models' behavior and their impact on real applications, which benefit both data mining researchers and practitioners.

Analysis of an internally mountable accelerometer balance system for use with non-isotropic models in shock tunnels

Knowledge of drag force is an important design parameter in aerodynamics. Measurement of aerodynamic forces at hypersonic speed is a challenge and usually ground test facilities like shock tunnels are used to carry out such tests. Accelerometer based force balances are commonly employed for measuring aerodynamic drag around bodies in hypersonic shock tunnels. In this study, we present an analysis of the effect of model material on the performance of an accelerometer balance used for measurement of drag in impulse facilities. From the experimental studies performed on models constructed out of Bakelite HYLEM and Aluminum, it is clear that the rigid body assumption does not hold good during the short testing duration available in shock tunnels. This is notwithstanding the fact that the rubber bush used for supporting the model allows unconstrained motion of the model during the short testing time available in the shock tunnel. The vibrations induced in the model on impact loading in the shock tunnel are damped out in metallic model, resulting in a smooth acceleration signal, while the signal become noisy and non-linear when we use non-isotropic materials like Bakelite HYLEM. This also implies that careful analysis and proper data reduction methodologies are necessary for measuring aerodynamic drag for non-metallic models in shock tunnels. The results from the drag measurements carried out using a 60 degrees half angle blunt cone is given in the present analysis.

A New Class of Exactly Solvable Interacting Fermion Models in One Dimension

We investigate a model containing two species of one-dimensional fermions interacting via a gauge field determined by the positions of all particles of the opposite species. The model can be salved exactly via a simple unitary transformation. Nevertheless, correlation functions exhibit nontrivial interaction-dependent exponents. A similar model defined on a lattice is introduced and solved. Various generalizations, e.g., to the case of internal symmetries of the fermions, are discussed. The present treatment also clarifies certain aspects of Luttinger's original solution of the "Luttinger model."

Relative performances of textural models in estimating soil moisture characteristic

The soil moisture characteristic (SMC) forms an important input to mathematical models of water and solute transport in the unsaturated-soil zone. Owing to their simplicity and ease of use, texture-based regression models are commonly used to estimate the SMC from basic soil properties. In this study, the performances of six such regression models were evaluated on three soils. Moisture characteristics generated by the regression models were statistically compared with the characteristics developed independently from laboratory and in-situ retention data of the soil profiles. Results of the statistical performance evaluation, while providing useful information on the errors involved in estimating the SMC, also highlighted the importance of the nature of the data set underlying the regression models. Among the models evaluated, the one possessing an underlying data set of in-situ measurements was found to be the best estimator of the in-situ SMC for all the soils. Considerable errors arose when a textural model based on laboratory data was used to estimate the field retention characteristics of unsaturated soils.

Statistical thermodynamics of lattice models in zeolites: Implications of local versus global mean field interactions

The statistical thermodynamics of adsorption in caged zeolites is developed by treating the zeolite as an ensemble of M identical cages or subsystems. Within each cage adsorption is assumed to occur onto a lattice of n identical sites. Expressions for the average occupancy per cage are obtained by minimizing the Helmholtz free energy in the canonical ensemble subject to the constraints of constant M and constant number of adsorbates N. Adsorbate-adsorbate interactions in the Brag-Williams or mean field approximation are treated in two ways. The local mean field approximation (LMFA) is based on the local cage occupancy and the global mean field approximation (GMFA) is based on the average coverage of the ensemble. The GMFA is shown to be equivalent in formulation to treating the zeolite as a collection of interacting single site subsystems. In contrast, the treatment in the LMFA retains the description of the zeolite as an ensemble of identical cages, whose thermodynamic properties are conveniently derived in the grand canonical ensemble. For a z coordinated lattice within the zeolite cage, with epsilon(aa) as the adsorbate-adsorbate interaction parameter, the comparisons for different values of epsilon(aa)(*)=epsilon(aa)z/2kT, and number of sites per cage, n, illustrate that for -1 In general, the deviation between the LMFA and GMFA is greater for smaller n and less sensitive to n for epsilon(aa)(*)> 0. We compare the isotherms predicted with the LMFA with previous GMFA predictions [K. G. Ayappa, C. R. Kamala, and T. A. Abinandanan, J. Chem. Phys. 110, 8714 (1999)] (which incorporates both the site volume reduction and a coverage-dependent epsilon(aa)) for xenon and methane in zeolite NaA. In all cases the predicted isotherms are very similar, with the exception of a small steplike feature present in the LMFA for xenon at higher coverages. (C) 1999 American Institute of Physics. [S0021-9606(99)70333-8].

Bose-Hubbard models in confining potentials: Inhomogeneous mean-field theory

We present an extensive study of Mott insulator (MI) and superfluid (SF) shells in Bose-Hubbard (BH) models for bosons in optical lattices with harmonic traps. For this we apply the inhomogeneous mean-field theory developed by Sheshadri et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 75, 4075 (1995)]. Our results for the BH model with one type of spinless bosons agree quantitatively with quantum Monte Carlo simulations. Our approach is numerically less intensive than such simulations, so we are able to perform calculations on experimentally realistic, large three-dimensional systems, explore a wide range of parameter values, and make direct contact with a variety of experimental measurements. We also extend our inhomogeneous mean-field theory to study BH models with harmonic traps and (a) two species of bosons or (b) spin-1 bosons. With two species of bosons, we obtain rich phase diagrams with a variety of SF and MI phases and associated shells when we include a quadratic confining potential. For the spin-1 BH model, we show, in a representative case, that the system can display alternating shells of polar SF and MI phases, and we make interesting predictions for experiments in such systems.

Performance evaluation of AR4 Climate Models in simulating daily precipitation over the Indian region using skill scores

The ability of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's fourth assessment report (IPCC AR4) for the 20th century climate (20C3M scenario) to simulate the daily precipitation over the Indian region is explored. The skill is evaluated on a 2.5A degrees x 2.5A degrees grid square compared with the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) gridded dataset, and every GCM is ranked for each of these grids based on its skill score. Skill scores (SSs) are estimated from the probability density functions (PDFs) obtained from observed IMD datasets and GCM simulations. The methodology takes into account (high) extreme precipitation events simulated by GCMs. The results are analyzed and presented for three categories and six zones. The three categories are the monsoon season (JJASO - June to October), non-monsoon season (JFMAMND - January to May, November, December) and for the entire year (''Annual''). The six precipitation zones are peninsular, west central, northwest, northeast, central northeast India, and the hilly region. Sensitivity analysis was performed for three spatial scales, 2.5A degrees grid square, zones, and all of India, in the three categories. The models were ranked based on the SS. The category JFMAMND had a higher SS than the JJASO category. The northwest zone had higher SSs, whereas the peninsular and hilly regions had lower SS. No single GCM can be identified as the best for all categories and zones. Some models consistently outperformed the model ensemble, and one model had particularly poor performance. Results show that most models underestimated the daily precipitation rates in the 0-1 mm/day range and overestimated it in the 1-15 mm/day range.

Better early osteogenesis of electroconductive hydroxyapatite-calcium titanate composites in a rabbit animal model

In view of the fact that bone healing can be enhanced due to external electric field application, it is important to assess the influence of the implant conductivity on the bone regeneration in vivo. To address this issue, this study reports the in vivo biocompatibility property of multistage spark plasma sintered hydroxyapatite (HA)-80 wt % calcium titanate (CaTiO3) composites and monolithic HA, which have widely different conductivity property (14 orders of magnitude difference). The ability of bone regeneration was assessed by implantation in cylindrical femoral bone defects of rabbit animal model for varying time period of 1, 4, and 12 weeks. The overall assessment of the histology results suggests that the progressive healing of bone defects around HA-80 wt % CaTiO3 is associated with a better efficacy with respect to (w.r.t) early stage neobone formation, which is histomorphometrically around 140% higher than monolithic HA. Overall, this study demonstrates that the in vivo biocompatibility property of HA-80 wt % CaTiO3 with respect to local effects after 12 weeks of implantation is not compromised both qualitatively and quantitatively, and a comparison with control implant (HA) points toward the critical role of electrical conductivity on better early stage bone regeneration. (c) 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part A: 102A: 842-851, 2014.

In vitro osteogenic cell proliferation, mineralization, and in vivo osseointegration of injection molded high-density polyethylene-based hybrid composites in rabbit animal model

The present work reports the biocompatibility property of injection molded HDPE-HA-Al2O3 hybrid composites. In vitro cytocompatibility results reveal that osteogenic cell viability and bone mineralization are favorably supported in a statistically significant manner on HDPE-20% HA-20% Al2O3 composite, in comparison to HDPE-40 wt.% HA or HDPE-40 wt.% Al2O3. The difference in cytocompatibility property is explained in terms of difference in substrate wettability/surface energy and importantly, both the cell proliferation at 7 days or bone mineralization at 21 days on HDPE-20% HA-20% Al2O3 composite are either comparable or better than sintered HA. The progressive healing of cylindrical femoral bone defects in rabbit animal model was assessed by implantation experiments over 1, 4 and 12 weeks. Based on the histological analysis as well as histomorphometrical evaluation, a better efficacy of HDPE-20% HA-20% Al2O3 over high-density polyethylene (HDPE) for bone regeneration and neobone formation at host bone-implant interface was established. Taken together, the present study unequivocally establishes that despite the presence of 20% Al2O3, HDPE-based hybrid composites are as biocompatible as HA in vitro or better than HDPE in vivo.

The Evolution of Animal Welfare and the 3Rs in Brazil, China, and India

Increasingly, scientific collaborations and contracts cross country borders. The need for assurance that the quality of animal welfare and the caliber of animal research conducted are equivalent among research partners around the globe is of concern to the scientific and laboratory animal medicine communities, the general public, and other key stakeholders. Therefore, global harmonization of animal care and use standards and practices, with the welfare of the animals as a cornerstone, is essential. In the evolving global landscape of enhanced attention to animal welfare, a widely accepted path to achieving this goal is the successful integration of the 3Rs in animal care and use programs. Currently, awareness of the 3Rs, their implementation, and the resulting animal care and use standards and practices vary across countries. This variability has direct effects on the animals used in research and potentially the data generated and may also have secondary effects on the country's ability to be viewed as a global research partner. Here we review the status of implementation of the 3Rs worldwide and focus on 3 countries-Brazil, China and India-with increasing economic influence and an increasing footprint in the biomedical research enterprise.