Role of predictors in downscaling surface temperature to river basin in India for IPCC SRES scenarios using support vector machine

In this paper, downscaling models are developed using a support vector machine (SVM) for obtaining projections of monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures (T-max and T-min) to river-basin scale. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated through application to downscale the predictands for the catchment of the Malaprabha reservoir in India, which is considered to be a climatically sensitive region. The probable predictor variables are extracted from (1) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the period 1978-2000, and (2) the simulations from the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for emission scenarios A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT for the period 1978-2100. The predictor variables are classified into three groups, namely A, B and C. Large-scale atmospheric variables Such as air temperature, zonal and meridional wind velocities at 925 nib which are often used for downscaling temperature are considered as predictors in Group A. Surface flux variables such as latent heat (LH), sensible heat, shortwave radiation and longwave radiation fluxes, which control temperature of the Earth's surface are tried as plausible predictors in Group B. Group C comprises of all the predictor variables in both the Groups A and B. The scatter plots and cross-correlations are used for verifying the reliability of the simulation of the predictor variables by the CGCM3 and to Study the predictor-predictand relationships. The impact of trend in predictor variables on downscaled temperature was studied. The predictor, air temperature at 925 mb showed an increasing trend, while the rest of the predictors showed no trend. The performance of the SVM models that are developed, one for each combination of predictor group, predictand, calibration period and location-based stratification (land, land and ocean) of climate variables, was evaluated. In general, the models which use predictor variables pertaining to land surface improved the performance of SVM models for downscaling T-max and T-min

A Theory of the Lifted Temperature Minimum on Calm Clear Nights

Numerous reports from several parts of the world have confirmed that on calm clear nights a minimum in air temperature can occur just above ground, at heights of the order of $\frac{1}{2}$ m or less. This phenomenon, first observed by Ramdas & Atmanathan (1932), carries the associated paradox of an apparently unstable layer that sustains itself for several hours, and has not so far been satisfactorily explained. We formulate here a theory that considers energy balance between radiation, conduction and free or forced convection in humid air, with surface temperature, humidity and wind incorporated into an appropriate mathematical model as parameters. A complete numerical solution of the coupled air-soil problem is used to validate an approach that specifies the surface temperature boundary condition through a cooling rate parameter. Utilizing a flux-emissivity scheme for computing radiative transfer, the model is numerically solved for various values of turbulent friction velocity. It is shown that a lifted minimum is predicted by the model for values of ground emissivity not too close to unity, and for sufficiently low surface cooling rates and eddy transport. Agreement with observation for reasonable values of the parameters is demonstrated. A heuristic argument is offered to show that radiation substantially increases the critical Rayleigh number for convection, thus circumventing or weakening Rayleigh-Benard instability. The model highlights the key role played by two parameters generally ignored in explanations of the phenomenon, namely surface emissivity and soil thermal conductivity, and shows that it is unnecessary to invoke the presence of such particulate constituents as haze to produce a lifted minimum.

Vaporization dynamics of functional droplets in a hot laminar air jet

The vaporization characteristics of pendant droplets of various chemical compositions (like conventional fuels, alternative fuels and nanosuspensions) subjected to convective heating in a laminar air jet have been analyzed. Different heating conditions were achieved by controlling the air temperature and velocity fields around the droplet. A hybrid timescale has been proposed which incorporates the effects of latent heat of vaporization, saturation vapor pressure and thermal diffusivity. This timescale in essence encapsulates the different parameters that influence the droplet vaporization rate. The analysis further permits the evaluation of the effect of various parameters such as surrounding temperature, Reynolds number, far-field vapor presence, impurity content and agglomeration dynamics (nanosuspensions) in the droplet. Flow visualization has been carried out to understand the role of internal recirculation on the vaporization rate. The visualization indicates the presence of a single vortex cell within the droplet on account of the rotation and oscillation of the droplet due to aerodynamic load. External heating induced agglomeration in nanofluids leads to morphological changes during the vaporization process. These morphological changes and alteration in vaporization behavior have been assessed using high speed imaging of the diameter regression and Scanning Electron Microscopy images of the resultant precipitate. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Infrared absorption spectra of single crystals of glycine silver nitrate and monoglycine nitrate

he infrared absorption spectra of glycine silver nitrate (GAgNO3) and glycine nitrate (GHNO3) show that the glycine group exists completely in the zwitter ion form in the former and in both forms in the latter. The spectrum of GAgNO3 at liquid air temperature did not reveal any striking change which can be attributed to a freezing of the rapid reorientation of the NH3+ group taking place at higher temperatures. The position of the COO− stretching frequencies indicate that this group is co-ordinated only weakly to the Ag+ ion. The summation frequencies reported by Schroeder, Wier and Lippincott (1962) for AgNO3 were not observed in the present study on GAgNO3. It shows however that ferroelectricity in GAgNO3 is in all probability due to the motion of the Ag+ ion in the oxygen co-ordination polyhedron and is not directly connected with the ordering of the hydrogen bonds below Curie point.

Importance of carbon dioxide physiological forcing to future climate change

An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration influences climate both directly through its radiative effect (i.e., trapping longwave radiation) and indirectly through its physiological effect (i.e., reducing transpiration of land plants). Here we compare the climate response to radiative and physiological effects of increased CO2 using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) coupled Community Land and Community Atmosphere Model. In response to a doubling of CO2, the radiative effect of CO2 causes mean surface air temperature over land to increase by 2.86 ± 0.02 K (± 1 standard error), whereas the physiological effects of CO2 on land plants alone causes air temperature over land to increase by 0.42 ± 0.02 K. Combined, these two effects cause a land surface warming of 3.33 ± 0.03 K. The radiative effect of doubling CO2 increases global runoff by 5.2 ± 0.6%, primarily by increasing precipitation over the continents. The physiological effect increases runoff by 8.4 ± 0.6%, primarily by diminishing evapotranspiration from the continents. Combined, these two effects cause a 14.9 ± 0.7% increase in runoff. Relative humidity remains roughly constant in response to CO2-radiative forcing, whereas relative humidity over land decreases in response to CO2-physiological forcing as a result of reduced plant transpiration. Our study points to an emerging consensus that the physiological effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 on land plants will increase global warming beyond that caused by the radiative effects of CO2.

Raman and infrared spectra of copper formate tetrahydrate

The Raman and i.r. spectra of antiferroelectric copper formate tetrahydrate have been recorded. The i.r. spectrum of copper formate tetrahydrate at liquid air temperature (the phase transition is at −38·9°C) does not show any striking changes from the room temperature spectrum except for intensity variations. This is explained as due to the fact that the frequency of reorientation of the protons even in the paraelectric phase is much less than the optical frequencies.

The Skill of ECMWF Medium-Range Forecasts during the Year of Tropical Convection 2008

This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics are evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. It has been shown that the model was able to capture the monthly to seasonal mean features of tropical convection reasonably. Northward propagation of convective bands over the Bay of Bengal was also forecasted realistically up to 5 days in advance, including the onset phase of the monsoon during the first half of June 2008. However, large errors exist in the daily datasets especially for longer lead times over smaller domains. For shorter lead times (less than 4-5 days), forecast errors are much smaller over the oceans than over land. Moreover, the rate of increase of errors with lead time is rapid over the oceans and is confined to the regions where observed precipitation shows large day-to-day variability. It has been shown that this rapid growth of errors over the oceans is related to the spatial pattern of near-surface air temperature. This is probably due to the one-way air-sea interaction in the atmosphere-only model used for forecasting. While the prescribed surface temperature over the oceans remain realistic at shorter lead times, the pattern and hence the gradient of the surface temperature is not altered with change in atmospheric parameters at longer lead times. It has also been shown that the ECMWF model had considerable difficulties in forecasting very low and very heavy intensity of precipitation over South Asia. The model has too few grids with ``zero'' precipitation and heavy (>40 mm day(-1)) precipitation. On the other hand, drizzle-like precipitation is too frequent in the model compared to that in the TRMM datasets. Further analysis shows that a major source of error in the ECMWF precipitation forecasts is the diurnal cycle over the South Asian monsoon region. The peak intensity of precipitation in the model forecasts over land (ocean) appear about 6 (9) h earlier than that in the observations. Moreover, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much higher in the model forecasts compared to that in the TRMM estimates. It has been seen that the phase error of the diurnal cycle increases with forecast lead time. The error in monthly mean 3-hourly precipitation forecasts is about 2-4 times of the error in the daily mean datasets. Thus, effort should be given to improve the phase and amplitude forecast of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from the model.

Combustion studies on concentrated distillery effluents

Studies on ignition and combustion of distillery effluent containing solids consisting of 38 +/- 2% inorganics and 62 +/- 2% of organics (cane sugar derivatives) have been carried out in order to investigate the role of droplet size and ambient temperature in the process of combustion. Experiments were conducted on in liquid droplets of effluent having solids concentration 65% and (2) spheres of died (100% solids) effluent of diameters ranging from 0.5 to 25 mm. These spheres were introduced into a furnace where air temperature ranged from 500 to 1000 degrees C, and they burned with two distinct regimes of combustion-flaming and glowing. The ignition delay of the 65% concentration effluent increases with diameter as in the case of nonvolatile droplets, while that of dried spheres appears to be independent of size. The ignition delay shows Arrhenius dependence on temperature. The flaming combustion involves a weight loss of 50-80%, depending on ambient temperature, and the flaming time is given by t(f) similar to d(0)(2), as in the case of liquid fuel droplets and wood spheres. Char glowing involves weight loss of an additional 10-20%, with glowing time behaving as t(c) similar to d(0)(2) as in the case of wood char, even though the inert content of effluent char is as large as 50% compared to 2-3% in wood char Char combustion has been modeled, and the results of this model compare well with the experimental results.

Turbulent heat flux variation over the Monsoon-Trough region during MONTBLEX-90

Tower data collected during the Monsoon-Trough Boundary Layer Experiment (MONTBLEX-90) have been analysed to understand the observed structure of the surface layer over an arid region (Jodhpur) and a moist region (Kharagpur) during active and weak phases of the 1990 southwest monsoon. Turbulent heat and momentum fluxes are estimated by the eddy correlation method using sonic data. The turbulent momentum flux at both Jodhpur and Kharagpur was larger when the winds were stronger, reaching a maximum of the order of 0.5 N m(-2) on 5 and 6 August when a low pressure system was located over the region. The heat flux at Jodhpur is high during weak monsoon days, the maximum being 450 W m(-2), whereas during active days the flux never exceeds 200 W m(-2). At Kharagpur, the flux does not vary significantly between active and weak monsoon days, the maximum in either phase being 160 W m(-2) At Jodhpur, there is significant contrast in the near-surface air temperature, being higher during weak monsoon days as compared to active days. Cloud cover did not vary significantly in both the regions. The turbulent heat flux variation at both the sites appears to be correlated mainly with soil mixture, and less sensitive to cloud cover.

Effect of January 15, 2010 annular solar eclipse on meteorological parameters over Goa, India

Atmospheric perturbations due to the annular solar eclipse were monitored to understand its influence on the meteorological parameters from surface to the lower stratosphere. A strong inversion at 13 km and an abnormal warming in the upper troposphere were noticed on the eclipse day. A decrease in tropopause height associated with increase in temperature caused anomalous warming. Considerable attenuation of incoming solar radiation resulted in abrupt increase of air temperature during the next 24 h followed by sharp decrease in relative humidity. The time lag is attributed to the distance from the totality and the response time between tropopause and surface layer. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate forcing and response to idealized changes in surface latent and sensible heat

Land use and land cover changes affect the partitioning of latent and sensible heat, which impacts the broader climate system. Increased latent heat flux to the atmosphere has a local cooling influence known as `evaporative cooling', but this energy will be released back to the atmosphere wherever the water condenses. However, the extent to which local evaporative cooling provides a global cooling influence has not been well characterized. Here, we perform a highly idealized set of climate model simulations aimed at understanding the effects that changes in the balance between surface sensible and latent heating have on the global climate system. We find that globally adding a uniform 1 W m(-2) source of latent heat flux along with a uniform 1 W m(-2) sink of sensible heat leads to a decrease in global mean surface air temperature of 0.54 +/- 0.04 K. This occurs largely as a consequence of planetary albedo increases associated with an increase in low elevation cloudiness caused by increased evaporation. Thus, our model results indicate that, on average, when latent heating replaces sensible heating, global, and not merely local, surface temperatures decrease.

River water quality response under hypothetical climate change scenarios in Tunga-Bhadra river, India

Analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow by perturbing the climate inputs has been a concern for many authors in the past few years, but there are few analyses for the impacts on water quality. To examine the impact of change in climate variables on the water quality parameters, the water quality input variables have to be perturbed. The primary input variables that can be considered for such an analysis are streamflow and water temperature, which are affected by changes in precipitation and air temperature, respectively. Using hypothetical scenarios to represent both greenhouse warming and streamflow changes, the sensitivity of the water quality parameters has been evaluated under conditions of altered river flow and river temperature in this article. Historical data analysis of hydroclimatic variables is carried out, which includes flow duration exceedance percentage (e.g. Q90), single low- flow indices (e.g. 7Q10, 30Q10) and relationships between climatic variables and surface variables. For the study region of Tunga-Bhadra river in India, low flows are found to be decreasing and water temperatures are found to be increasing. As a result, there is a reduction in dissolved oxygen (DO) levels found in recent years. Water quality responses of six hypothetical climate change scenarios were simulated by the water quality model, QUAL2K. A simple linear regression relation between air and water temperature is used to generate the scenarios for river water temperature. The results suggest that all the hypothetical climate change scenarios would cause impairment in water quality. It was found that there is a significant decrease in DO levels due to the impact of climate change on temperature and flows, even when the discharges were at safe permissible levels set by pollution control agencies (PCAs). The necessity to improve the standards of PCA and develop adaptation policies for the dischargers to account for climate change is examined through a fuzzy waste load allocation model developed earlier. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Climate change and crop yields in the Indian Cardamom Hills, 1978-2007 CE

In this study we analyzed climate and crop yields data from Indian cardamom hills for the period 1978-2007 to investigate whether there were significant changes in weather elements, and if such changes have had significant impact on the production of spices and plantation crops. Spatial and temporal variations in air temperatures (maximum and minimum), rainfall and relative humidity are evident across stations. The mean air temperature increased significantly during the last 30 years; the greatest increase and the largest significant upward trend was observed in the daily temperature. The highest increase in minimum temperature was registered for June (0.37A degrees C/18 years) at the Myladumpara station. December and January showed greater warming across the stations. Rainfall during the main monsoon months (June-September) showed a downward trend. Relative humidity showed increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, at the cardamom and tea growing tracts. The warming trend coupled with frequent wet and dry spells during the summer is likely to have a favorable effect on insect pests and disease causing organisms thereby pesticide consumption can go up both during excess rainfall and drought years. The incidence of many minor pest insects and disease pathogens has increased in the recent years of our study along with warming. Significant and slight increases in the yield of small cardamom (Elettaria cardamomum M.) and coffee (Coffea arabica), respectively, were noticed in the recent years.; however the improvement of yield in tea (Thea sinensis) and black pepper (Piper nigrum L.) has not been seen in our analysis.

Dependence of climate forcing and response on the altitude of black carbon aerosols

Black carbon aerosols absorb solar radiation and decrease planetary albedo, and thus can contribute to climate warming. In this paper, the dependence of equilibrium climate response on the altitude of black carbon is explored using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed layer ocean model. The simulations model aerosol direct and semi-direct effects, but not indirect effects. Aerosol concentrations are prescribed and not interactive. It is shown that climate response of black carbon is highly dependent on the altitude of the aerosol. As the altitude of black carbon increases, surface temperatures decrease; black carbon near the surface causes surface warming, whereas black carbon near the tropopause and in the stratosphere causes surface cooling. This cooling occurs despite increasing planetary absorption of sunlight (i.e. decreasing planetary albedo). We find that the trend in surface air temperature response versus the altitude of black carbon is consistent with our calculations of radiative forcing after the troposphere, stratosphere, and land surface have undergone rapid adjustment, calculated as ``regressed'' radiative forcing. The variation in climate response from black carbon at different altitudes occurs largely from different fast climate responses; temperature dependent feedbacks are not statistically distinguishable. Impacts of black carbon at various altitudes on the hydrological cycle are also discussed; black carbon in the lowest atmospheric layer increases precipitation despite reductions in solar radiation reaching the surface, whereas black carbon at higher altitudes decreases precipitation.

Correlations of vaporization performance of conventional and biofuel sprays in a crossflow heated chamber

Pre-vaporization and pre-mixing are the two main features of LPP type of combustor that operate on liquid fuels. The pre-vaporization length scale is one of its most important design parameters. In this study, the goal is to put forward a simulation based correlation for fuel vaporization performance as a function of dimensionless parameters for crossflow type of injections. Two types of fuels are studied here: jet-A and one of its potential biofuel substitutes, RME. Different sets of spray simulations are considered for crossflow type of injections. Correlations are provided for both jet-A and RME's vaporization performance as a function of non-dimensional inlet air temperature, fuel/air momentum flux ratio and normalized spray traverse distance. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.