Role of predictors in downscaling surface temperature to river basin in India for IPCC SRES scenarios using support vector machine

In this paper, downscaling models are developed using a support vector machine (SVM) for obtaining projections of monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures (T-max and T-min) to river-basin scale. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated through application to downscale the predictands for the catchment of the Malaprabha reservoir in India, which is considered to be a climatically sensitive region. The probable predictor variables are extracted from (1) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset for the period 1978-2000, and (2) the simulations from the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) for emission scenarios A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT for the period 1978-2100. The predictor variables are classified into three groups, namely A, B and C. Large-scale atmospheric variables Such as air temperature, zonal and meridional wind velocities at 925 nib which are often used for downscaling temperature are considered as predictors in Group A. Surface flux variables such as latent heat (LH), sensible heat, shortwave radiation and longwave radiation fluxes, which control temperature of the Earth's surface are tried as plausible predictors in Group B. Group C comprises of all the predictor variables in both the Groups A and B. The scatter plots and cross-correlations are used for verifying the reliability of the simulation of the predictor variables by the CGCM3 and to Study the predictor-predictand relationships. The impact of trend in predictor variables on downscaled temperature was studied. The predictor, air temperature at 925 mb showed an increasing trend, while the rest of the predictors showed no trend. The performance of the SVM models that are developed, one for each combination of predictor group, predictand, calibration period and location-based stratification (land, land and ocean) of climate variables, was evaluated. In general, the models which use predictor variables pertaining to land surface improved the performance of SVM models for downscaling T-max and T-min

Vertical uplift resistance of two horizontal strip anchors with common vertical axis

With an application of the upper bound finite element limit analysis, the vertical pullout capacity of a group of two horizontal strip plate anchors, with the common vertical axis and placed in a cohesive-frictional soil, has been computed. The variation of the uplift factors Fc, Fq and Fy, due to the contributions of soil cohesion, surcharge pressure and unit weight, respectively, has been evaluated for different combinations of S/B and H/B. As compared to single isolated anchor, the group of two anchors generates significantly greater magnitude of Fc for Φ ≤ 20° especially with greater values of H/B and under fully bonded anchor-soil interface condition. The factor Fc attains almost the maximum value when the upper anchor plate is placed midway between ground surface and the lower anchor plate. The factors Fq and Fy, on the other hand, for a group of two anchors are found to remain almost equal to that of a single isolated anchor as long as the levels of the lower plate in the group and the single isolated anchor are kept the same.

Tectonic inheritance of the Indian Shield: New insights from its elastic thickness structure

A new evaluation of the elastic thickness (Te) structure of the Indian Shield, derived from isotropic fan wavelet methodology, documents spatial variations of lithospheric deformation in different tectonic provinces correlated with episodic tectono-thermal events. The Te variations corroborated by shear velocity, crustal thickness, and seismogenic thickness reveal the heterogeneous rheology of the Indian lithosphere. The thinned, attenuated lithosphere beneath Peninsular India is considered to be the reason for its mechanically weak strength (<30 km), where a decoupled crust-mantle rheology under different surface/subsurface loading structures may explain the prominent low Te patterns. The arcuate Te structure of the Western Dharwar province and a NNE-trending band of low Te anomaly in the Southern Granulite Terrane are intriguing patterns. The average Te values (40-50 km) of the Central Indian Tectonic Zone, the Bastar Craton, and the northern Eastern Ghats Mobile Belt are suggestive of old, stable, Indian lithosphere, which was not affected by any major tectono-thermal events after cratonic stabilization. We propose that the anomalously high Te (60-85 km) and high S-wave velocity zone to the north of the Narmada-Son Lineament, mainly in NW Himalaya, and the northern Aravalli and Bundelkhand Cratons, suggest that Archean lithosphere characterized by a high velocity mantle keel supports the orogenic topographic loads in/near the Himalaya. The Te map clearly segments the volcanic provinces of the Indian Shield, where the signatures of the Reunion, Marion, and Kerguelen hotspots are indicated by significantly low Te patterns that correlate with plume- and rift-related thermal and mechanical rejuvenation, magmatic underplating, and crustal necking. The correlations between Te variations and the occurrence of seismicity over seismically active zones reveal different causal relationships, which led to the current seismogenic zonation of the Indian Shield. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.