187 resultados para sub-seasonal prediction


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He propose a new time domain method for efficient representation of the KCG and delineation of its component waves. The method is based on the multipulse Linear prediction (LP) coding which is being widely used in speech processing. The excitation to the LP synthesis filter consists of a few pulses defined by their locations and amplitudes. Based on the amplitudes and their distribution, the pulses are suitably combined to delineate the component waves. Beat to beat correlation in the ECG signal is used in QRS periodicity prediction. The method entails a data compression of 1 in 6. The method reconstructs the signal with an NMSE of less than 5%.

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Prediction of variable bit rate compressed video traffic is critical to dynamic allocation of resources in a network. In this paper, we propose a technique for preprocessing the dataset used for training a video traffic predictor. The technique involves identifying the noisy instances in the data using a fuzzy inference system. We focus on three prediction techniques, namely, linear regression, neural network and support vector regression and analyze their performance on H.264 video traces. Our experimental results reveal that data preprocessing greatly improves the performance of linear regression and neural network, but is not effective on support vector regression.

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We investigate the variation of the gas and the radiation pressure in accretion disks during the infall of matter to the black hole and its effect to the flow. While the flow far away from the black hole might be non-relativistic, in the vicinity of the black hole it is expected to be relativistic behaving more like radiation. Therefore, the ratio of gas pressure to total pressure (beta) and the underlying polytropic index (gamma) should not be constant throughout the flow. We obtain that accretion flows exhibit significant variation of beta and then gamma, which affects solutions described in the standard literature based on constant beta. Certain solutions for a particular set of initial parameters with a constant beta do not exist when the variation of beta is incorporated appropriately. We model the viscous sub-Keplerian accretion disk with a nonzero component of advection and pressure gradient around black holes by preserving the conservations of mass, momentum, energy, supplemented by the evolution of beta. By solving the set of five coupled differential equations, we obtain the thermo-hydrodynamical properties of the flow. We show that during infall, beta of the flow could vary up to similar to 300%, while gamma up to similar to 20%. This might have a significant impact to the disk solutions in explaining observed data, e.g. super-luminal jets from disks, luminosity, and then extracting fundamental properties from them. Hence any conclusion based on constant gamma and beta should be taken with caution and corrected. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This is the first successful attempt to produce simultaneously ultrafine grain size and weak texture in a single-phase magnesium alloy Mg-3Al-0.4Mn through an optimal choice of processing parameters in a modified multi-axial forging (MAF) process. An average grain size of similar to 0.4 mu m and a weak texture could be achieved. This has led to an increase in the strength as well as room-temperature ductility (55%). The plot of the yield loci shows a decrease in anisotropy after MAF. (C) 2011 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Breakout noise from HVAC ducts is important at low frequencies, and the coupling between the acoustic waves and the structural waves plays a critical role in the prediction of the transverse transmission loss. This paper describes the analytical calculation of breakout noise by incorporating three-dimensional effects along with the acoustical and structural wave coupling phenomena. The first step in the breakout noise prediction is to calculate the inside duct pressure field and the normal duct wall vibration by using the solution of the governing differential equations in terms of Green's function. The resultant equations are rearranged in terms of impedance and mobility, which results in a compact matrix formulation. The Green's function selected for the current problem is the cavity Green's function with modification of wave number in the longitudinal direction in order to incorporate the terminal impedance. The second step is to calculate the radiated sound power from the compliant duct walls by means of an ``equivalent unfolded plate'' model. The transverse transmission loss from the duct walls is calculated using the ratio of the incident power due to surface source inside the duct to the acoustic power radiated from the compliant duct walls. Analytical results are validated with the FE-BE numerical models.

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Nanocrystalline zinc ferrite (ZFO) has been synthesized from metal acetylacetonates by microwave irradiation for 5 min in the presence of a surfactant. The as-prepared material is ZFO and has been subjected in air to conventional furnace annealing and to rapid annealing at different temperatures. Both annealing protocols lead to well-crystallized ZFO, with crystallite sizes in the range similar to 8-20 nm, which is ferrimagnetic, even at room temperature, with magnetization attaining saturation. While the magnetization M(S) of conventionally annealed ZFO varies with crystallite size in the expected manner, rapid annealing leads to high M(S) even when the crystallite size is relatively large. The coercivity is greater in the conventionally annealed ZFO. Thermal and magnetic measurements suggest that the inhomogeneous site cationic distribution within each crystallite caused by rapid annealing can be used to tailor the magnetic behaviour of nanocrystalline ferrites.

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Parallel sub-word recognition (PSWR) is a new model that has been proposed for language identification (LID) which does not need elaborate phonetic labeling of the speech data in a foreign language. The new approach performs a front-end tokenization in terms of sub-word units which are designed by automatic segmentation, segment clustering and segment HMM modeling. We develop PSWR based LID in a framework similar to the parallel phone recognition (PPR) approach in the literature. This includes a front-end tokenizer and a back-end language model, for each language to be identified. Considering various combinations of the statistical evaluation scores, it is found that PSWR can perform as well as PPR, even with broad acoustic sub-word tokenization, thus making it an efficient alternative to the PPR system.

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The precipitation by Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization in a General Circulation Model (GCM) is sensitive to the choice of relaxation parameter or specified cloud adjustment time scale. In the present study, we examine sensitivity of simulated precipitation to the choice of cloud adjustment time scale (tau(adj)) over different parts of the tropics using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM) during June-September. The results show that a single specified value of tau(adj) performs best only over a particular region and different values are preferred over different parts of the world. To find a relation between tau(adj) and cloud depth (convective activity) we choose six regions over the tropics. Based on the observed relation between outgoing long-wave radiation and tau(adj), we propose a linear cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter to be used in the model. The simulations over most parts of the tropics show improved results due to this newly formulated cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter.

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For the analysis and design of pile foundation used for coastal structures the prediction of cyclic response, which is influenced by the nonlinear behavior, gap (pile soil separation) and degradation (reduction in strength) of soil becomes necessary. To study the effect of the above parameters a nonlinear cyclic load analysis program using finite element method is developed, incorporating the proposed gap and degradation model and adopting an incremental-iterative procedure. The pile is idealized using beam elements and the soil by number of elastoplastic sub-element springs at each node. The effect of gap and degradation on the load-deflection behavior. elasto-plastic sub-element and resistance of the soil at ground-line have been clearly depicted in this paper.

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In the present paper, the constitutive model is proposed for cemented soils, in which the cementation component and frictional component are treated separately and then added together to get overall response. The modified Cam clay is used to predict the frictional resistance and an elasto-plastic strain softening model is proposed for the cementation component. The rectangular isotropic yield curve proposed by Vatsala (1995) for the bond component has been modified in order to account for the anisotropy generally observed in the case of natural soft cemented soils. In this paper, the model proposed is used to predict the experimental results of extension tests on the soft cemented soils whereas compression test results are presented elsewhere. The model predictions compare quite satisfactorily with the observed response. A few input parameters are required which are well defined and easily determinable and the model uses associated flow rule.

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This work focuses on the formulation of an asymptotically correct theory for symmetric composite honeycomb sandwich plate structures. In these panels, transverse stresses tremendously influence design. The conventional 2-D finite elements cannot predict the thickness-wise distributions of transverse shear or normal stresses and 3-D displacements. Unfortunately, the use of the more accurate three-dimensional finite elements is computationally prohibitive. The development of the present theory is based on the Variational Asymptotic Method (VAM). Its unique features are the identification and utilization of additional small parameters associated with the anisotropy and non-homogeneity of composite sandwich plate structures. These parameters are ratios of smallness of the thickness of both facial layers to that of the core and smallness of 3-D stiffness coefficients of the core to that of the face sheets. Finally, anisotropy in the core and face sheets is addressed by the small parameters within the 3-D stiffness matrices. Numerical results are illustrated for several sample problems. The 3-D responses recovered using VAM-based model are obtained in a much more computationally efficient manner than, and are in agreement with, those of available 3-D elasticity solutions and 3-D FE solutions of MSC NASTRAN. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Resistance to therapy limits the effectiveness of drug treatment in many diseases. Drug resistance can be considered as a successful outcome of the bacterial struggle to survive in the hostile environment of a drug-exposed cell. An important mechanism by which bacteria acquire drug resistance is through mutations in the drug target. Drug resistant strains (multi-drug resistant and extensively drug resistant) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis are being identified at alarming rates, increasing the global burden of tuberculosis. An understanding of the nature of mutations in different drug targets and how they achieve resistance is therefore important. An objective of this study is to first decipher sequence as well as structural bases for the observed resistance in known drug resistant mutants and then to predict positions in each target that are more prone to acquiring drug resistant mutations. A curated database containing hundreds of mutations in the 38 drug targets of nine major clinical drugs, associated with resistance is studied here. Mutations have been classified into those that occur in the binding site itself, those that occur in residues interacting with the binding site and those that occur in outer zones. Structural models of the wild type and mutant forms of the target proteins have been analysed to seek explanations for reduction in drug binding. Stability analysis of an entire array of 19 mutations at each of the residues for each target has been computed using structural models. Conservation indices of individual residues, binding sites and whole proteins are computed based on sequence conservation analysis of the target proteins. The analyses lead to insights about which positions in the polypeptide chain have a higher propensity to acquire drug resistant mutations. Thus critical insights can be obtained about the effect of mutations on drug binding, in terms of which amino acid positions and therefore which interactions should not be heavily relied upon, which in turn can be translated into guidelines for modifying the existing drugs as well as for designing new drugs. The methodology can serve as a general framework to study drug resistant mutants in other micro-organisms as well.

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Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) with free and open source software (FOSS) - Open Modeller were used to model the probable landslide occurrence points. Environmental layers such as aspect, digital elevation, flow accumulation, flow direction, slope, land cover, compound topographic index and precipitation have been used in modeling. Simulated output of these techniques is validated with the actual landslide occurrence points, which showed 92% (GARP) and 96% (SVM) accuracy considering precipitation in the wettest month and 91% and 94% accuracy considering precipitation in the wettest quarter of the year.