Holistic Measures for Evaluating Prediction Models in Smart Grids

The performance of prediction models is often based on ``abstract metrics'' that estimate the model's ability to limit residual errors between the observed and predicted values. However, meaningful evaluation and selection of prediction models for end-user domains requires holistic and application-sensitive performance measures. Inspired by energy consumption prediction models used in the emerging ``big data'' domain of Smart Power Grids, we propose a suite of performance measures to rationally compare models along the dimensions of scale independence, reliability, volatility and cost. We include both application independent and dependent measures, the latter parameterized to allow customization by domain experts to fit their scenario. While our measures are generalizable to other domains, we offer an empirical analysis using real energy use data for three Smart Grid applications: planning, customer education and demand response, which are relevant for energy sustainability. Our results underscore the value of the proposed measures to offer a deeper insight into models' behavior and their impact on real applications, which benefit both data mining researchers and practitioners.

Reliability Assessment of a Storm Water Drain Network

Most of the cities in India are undergoing rapid development in recent decades, and many rural localities are undergoing transformation to urban hotspots. These developments have associated land use/land cover (LULC) change that effects runoff response from catchments, which is often evident in the form of increase in runoff peaks, volume and velocity in drain network. Often most of the existing storm water drains are in dilapidated stage owing to improper maintenance or inadequate design. The drains are conventionally designed using procedures that are based on some anticipated future conditions. Further, values of parameters/variables associated with design of the network are traditionally considered to be deterministic. However, in reality, the parameters/variables have uncertainty due to natural and/or inherent randomness. There is a need to consider the uncertainties for designing a storm water drain network that can effectively convey the discharge. The present study evaluates performance of an existing storm water drain network in Bangalore, India, through reliability analysis by Advance First Order Second Moment (AFOSM) method. In the reliability analysis, parameters that are considered to be random variables are roughness coefficient, slope and conduit dimensions. Performance of the existing network is evaluated considering three failure modes. The first failure mode occurs when runoff exceeds capacity of the storm water drain network, while the second failure mode occurs when the actual flow velocity in the storm water drain network exceeds the maximum allowable velocity for erosion control, whereas the third failure mode occurs when the minimum flow velocity is less than the minimum allowable velocity for deposition control. In the analysis, runoff generated from subcatchments of the study area and flow velocity in storm water drains are estimated using Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Results from the study are presented and discussed. The reliability values are low under the three failure modes, indicating a need to redesign several of the conduits to improve their reliability. This study finds use in devising plans for expansion of the Bangalore storm water drain system. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Girsanov Transformation-Based Reliability Modeling and Testing of Actively Controlled Structures

The problem of estimation of the time-variant reliability of actively controlled structural dynamical systems under stochastic excitations is considered. Monte Carlo simulations, reinforced with Girsanov transformation-based sampling variance reduction, are used to tackle the problem. In this approach, the external excitations are biased by an additional artificial control force. The conflicting objectives of the two control forces-one designed to reduce structural responses and the other to promote limit-state violations (but to reduce sampling variance)-are noted. The control for variance reduction is fashioned after design-point oscillations based on a first-order reliability method. It is shown that for structures that are amenable to laboratory testing, the reliability can be estimated experimentally with reduced testing times by devising a procedure based on the ideas of the Girsanov transformation. Illustrative examples include studies on a building frame with a magnetorheologic damper-based isolation system subject to nonstationary random earthquake excitations. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Markov chain splitting methods in structural reliability integral estimation

Monte Carlo simulation methods involving splitting of Markov chains have been used in evaluation of multi-fold integrals in different application areas. We examine in this paper the performance of these methods in the context of evaluation of reliability integrals from the point of view of characterizing the sampling fluctuations. The methods discussed include the Au-Beck subset simulation, Holmes-Diaconis-Ross method, and generalized splitting algorithm. A few improvisations based on first order reliability method are suggested to select algorithmic parameters of the latter two methods. The bias and sampling variance of the alternative estimators are discussed. Also, an approximation to the sampling distribution of some of these estimators is obtained. Illustrative examples involving component and series system reliability analyses are presented with a view to bring out the relative merits of alternative methods. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

System reliability of randomly vibrating structures: Computational modeling and laboratory testing

The problem of determination of system reliability of randomly vibrating structures arises in many application areas of engineering. We discuss in this paper approaches based on Monte Carlo simulations and laboratory testing to tackle problems of time variant system reliability estimation. The strategy we adopt is based on the application of Girsanov's transformation to the governing stochastic differential equations which enables estimation of probability of failure with significantly reduced number of samples than what is needed in a direct simulation study. Notably, we show that the ideas from Girsanov's transformation based Monte Carlo simulations can be extended to conduct laboratory testing to assess system reliability of engineering structures with reduced number of samples and hence with reduced testing times. Illustrative examples include computational studies on a 10 degree of freedom nonlinear system model and laboratory/computational investigations on road load response of an automotive system tested on a four post Lest rig. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A TDMA-based Energy Aware MAC (TEA-MAC) Protocol for Reliable Multicast in WSNs

Multicast in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is an efficient way to spread the same data to multiple sensor nodes. It becomes more effective due to the broadcast nature of wireless link, where a message transmitted from one source is inherently received by all one-hop receivers, and therefore, there is no need to transmit the message one by one. Reliable multicast in WSNs is desirable for critical tasks like code updation and query based data collection. The erroneous nature of wireless medium coupled with limited resource of sensor nodes, makes the design of reliable multicast protocol a challenging task. In this work, we propose a time division multiple access (TDMA) based energy aware media access and control (TEA-MAC) protocol for reliable multicast in WSNs. The TDMA eliminates collisions, overhearing and idle listening, which are the main sources of reliability degradation and energy consumption. Furthermore, the proposed protocol is parametric in the sense that it can be used to trade-off reliability with energy and delay as per the requirement of the underlying applications. The performance of TEA-MAC has been evaluated by simulating it using Castalia network simulator. Simulation results show that TEA-MAC is able to considerably improve the performance of multicast communication in WSNs.

A Fast and Fault-Tolerant Distributed Algorithm for Near-Optimal TDMA Scheduling in WSNs

The time division multiple access (TDMA) based channel access mechanisms perform better than the contention based channel access mechanisms, in terms of channel utilization, reliability and power consumption, specially for high data rate applications in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Most of the existing distributed TDMA scheduling techniques can be classified as either static or dynamic. The primary purpose of static TDMA scheduling algorithms is to improve the channel utilization by generating a schedule of smaller length. But, they usually take longer time to schedule, and hence, are not suitable for WSNs, in which the network topology changes dynamically. On the other hand, dynamic TDMA scheduling algorithms generate a schedule quickly, but they are not efficient in terms of generated schedule length. In this paper, we propose a novel scheme for TDMA scheduling in WSNs, which can generate a compact schedule similar to static scheduling algorithms, while its runtime performance can be matched with those of dynamic scheduling algorithms. Furthermore, the proposed distributed TDMA scheduling algorithm has the capability to trade-off schedule length with the time required to generate the schedule. This would allow the developers of WSNs, to tune the performance, as per the requirement of prevalent WSN applications, and the requirement to perform re-scheduling. Finally, the proposed TDMA scheduling is fault-tolerant to packet loss due to erroneous wireless channel. The algorithm has been simulated using the Castalia simulator to compare its performance with those of others in terms of generated schedule length and the time required to generate the TDMA schedule. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm generates a compact schedule in a very less time.

System reliability analysis of granular filter for protection against piping in dams

Granular filters are provided for the safety of water retaining structure for protection against piping failure. The phenomenon of piping triggers when the base soil to be protected starts migrating in the direction of seepage flow under the influence of seepage force. To protect base soil from migration, the voids in the filter media should be small enough but it should not also be too small to block smooth passage of seeping water. Fulfilling these two contradictory design requirements at the same time is a major concern for the successful performance of granular filter media. Since Terzaghi era, conventionally, particle size distribution (PSD) of granular filters is designed based on particle size distribution characteristics of the base soil to be protected. The design approach provides a range of D15f value in which the PSD of granular filter media should fall and there exist infinite possibilities. Further, safety against the two critical design requirements cannot be ensured. Although used successfully for many decades, the existing filter design guidelines are purely empirical in nature accompanied with experience and good engineering judgment. In the present study, analytical solutions for obtaining the factor of safety with respect to base soil particle migration and soil permeability consideration as proposed by the authors are first discussed. The solution takes into consideration the basic geotechnical properties of base soil and filter media as well as existing hydraulic conditions and provides a comprehensive solution to the granular filter design with ability to assess the stability in terms of factor of safety. Considering the fact that geotechnical properties are variable in nature, probabilistic analysis is further suggested to evaluate the system reliability of the filter media that may help in risk assessment and risk management for decision making.

RD-TDMA: A Randomized and Distributed TDMA Scheduling for Correlated Contention in WSNs

In wireless sensor networks (WSNs), contention occurs when two or more nodes in a proximity simultaneously try to access the channel. The contention causes collisions, which are very likely to occur when traffic is correlated. The excessive collision not only affects the reliability and the QoS of the application, but also the lifetime of the network. It is well-known that random access mechanisms do not efficiently handle correlated-contention, and therefore, suffer from high collision rate. Most of the existing TDMA scheduling techniques try to find an optimal or a sub-optimal schedule. Usually, the situation of correlated-contention persists only for a short duration, and therefore, it is not worthwhile to take a long time to generate an optimal or a sub-optimal schedule. We propose a randomized distributed TDMA scheduling (RD-TDMA) algorithm to quickly generate a feasible schedule (not necessarily optimal) to handle correlated-contention in WSNs. In RD-TDMA, a node in the network negotiates a slot with its neighbors using the message exchange mechanism. The proposed protocol has been simulated using the Castalia simulator to evaluate its runtime performance. Simulation results show that the RD-TDMA algorithm considerably reduces the time required to schedule.

Strength reliability and in vitro degradation of three-dimensional powder printed strontium-substituted magnesium phosphate scaffolds

Strontium ions (Sr2+) are known to prevent osteoporosis and also encourage bone formation. Such twin requirements have motivated researchers to develop Sr-substituted biomaterials for orthopaedic applications. The present study demonstrates a new concept of developing Sr-substituted Mg-3(PO4)(2) - based biodegradable scaffolds. In particular, this work reports the fabrication, mechanical properties with an emphasis on strength reliability as well as in vitro degradation of highly biodegradable strontium-incorporated magnesium phosphate cements. These implantable scaffolds were fabricated using three-dimensional powder printing, followed by high temperature sintering and/or chemical conversion, a technique adaptable to develop patient-specific implants. A moderate combination of strength properties of 36.7 MPa (compression), 242 MPa (bending) and 10.7 MPa (tension) were measured. A reasonably modest Weibull modulus of up to 8.8 was recorded after uniaxial compression or diametral tensile tests on 3D printed scaffolds. A comparison among scaffolds with varying compositions or among sintered or chemically hardened scaffolds reveals that the strength reliability is not compromised in Sr-substituted scaffolds compared to baseline Mg-3(PO4)(2). The micro-computed tomography analysis reveals the presence of highly interconnected porous architecture in three-dimension with lognormal pore size distribution having median in the range of 17.74-26.29 mu m for the investigated scaffolds. The results of extensive in vitro ion release study revealed passive degradation with a reduced Mg2+ release and slow but sustained release of Sr2+ from strontium-substituted magnesium phosphate scaffolds. Taken together, the present study unequivocally illustrates that the newly designed Sr-substituted magnesium phosphate scaffolds with good strength reliability could be used for biomedical applications requiring consistent Sr2+-release, while the scaffold degrades in physiological medium. Statement of significance The study investigates the additive manufacturing of scaffolds based on different strontium-substituted magnesium phosphate bone cements by means of three-dimensional powder printing technique (3DPP). Magnesium phosphates were chosen due to their higher biodegradability compared to calcium phosphates, which is due to both a higher solubility as well as the absence of phase changes (to low soluble hydroxyapatite) in vivo. Since strontium ions are known to promote bone formation by stimulating osteoblast growth, we aimed to establish such a highly degradable magnesium phosphate ceramic with an enhanced bioactivity for new bone ingrowth. After post-processing, mechanical strengths of up to 36.7 MPa (compression), 24.2 MPa (bending) and 10.7 MPa (tension) could be achieved. Simultaneously, the failure reliability of those bioceramic implant materials, measured by Weibull modulus calculations, were in the range of 4.3-8.8. Passive dissolution studies in vitro proved an ion release of Mg2+ and PO43- as well as Sr2+, which is fundamental for in vivo degradation and a bone growth promoting effect. In our opinion, this work broadens the range of bioceramic bone replacement materials suitable for additive manufacturing processing. The high biodegradability of MPC ceramics together with the anticipated promoting effect on osseointegration opens up the way for a patient-specific treatment with the prospect of a fast and complete healing of bone fractures. (C) 2015 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Perspective on Computer Assisted Assessment Techniques for Short Free-Text Answers

Computer Assisted Assessment (CAA) has been existing for several years now. While some forms of CAA do not require sophisticated text understanding (e.g., multiple choice questions), there are also student answers that consist of free text and require analysis of text in the answer. Research towards the latter till date has concentrated on two main sub-tasks: (i) grading of essays, which is done mainly by checking the style, correctness of grammar, and coherence of the essay and (ii) assessment of short free-text answers. In this paper, we present a structured view of relevant research in automated assessment techniques for short free-text answers. We review papers spanning the last 15 years of research with emphasis on recent papers. Our main objectives are two folds. First we present the survey in a structured way by segregating information on dataset, problem formulation, techniques, and evaluation measures. Second we present a discussion on some of the potential future directions in this domain which we hope would be helpful for researchers.