Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.

Enhancement Mechanism of Fluorescence Intensity in Presence of Plasmonic Nanoparticles

The emission intensity of fluorophore molecule may change in presence of strong plasmon field induced by nanoparticles. The enhancement intensity is optimized through selective clustering or functionalization of nanoparticles in closed vicinity of fluorophore. Our study is aimed at understanding the enhancement mechanism of fluorescence intensity in presence of gold nanoparticles to utilize it in molecular sensing and in situ imaging in the microfluidic lab-on-chip device. Related phenomena are studied in situ in a microfluidic channel via fluorescence imaging. Detailed analysis is carried out to understand the possible mechanism of enhancement of fluorescence due to nanoparticles. In the present experimental study we show that SYTO9 fluorescence intensity increased in presence of Au nanoparticles of similar to 20 nm diameter. The fluorescence intensity is 20 time more compared to that in absence of Au nanoparticles. The enhancement of fluorescence intensity is attributed to the plasmonic resonance of Au nanoparticle at around the fluorescence emission wavelength. Underlying fundamental mechanism via dipole interaction model is explored for quantitative correlation of plasmonic enhancement properties.

Nanomechanical Mapping, Hierarchical Polymer Dynamics, and Miscibility in the Presence of Chain-End Grafted Nanoparticles

To improve the spatial distribution of nano particles in a polymeric host and to enhance the interfacial interaction with the host, the use of chain-end grafted nanoparticle has gained popularity in the field of polymeric nanocomposites. Besides changing the material properties of the host, these grafted nanoparticles strongly alter the dynamics of the polymer chain at both local and cooperative length scales (relaxations) by manipulating the enthalpic and entropic interactions. It is difficult to map the distribution of these chain-end grafted nanoparticles in the blend by conventional techniques, and herein, we attempted to characterize it by unique technique(s) like peak force quantitative nanomechanical mapping (PFQNM) through AFM (atomic force microscopy) imaging and dielectric relaxation spectroscopy (DRS). Such techniques, besides shedding light on the spatial distribution of the nanoparticles, also give critical information on the changing elasticity at smaller length scales and hierarchical polymer chain dynamics in the vicinity of the nanoparticles. The effect of one-dimensional rodlike multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWNTs), with the characteristic dimension of the order of the radius of gyration of the polymeric chain, on the phase miscibility and chain dynamics in a classical LCST mixture of polystyrene/ poly(vinyl methyl ether) (PS/PVME) was examined in detail using the above techniques. In order to tune the localization of the nanotubes, different molecular weights of PS (13, 31, and 46 kDa), synthesized using RAFT (reversible addition fragmentation chain transfer) polymerization, was grafted onto MWNTs in situ. The thermodynamic miscibility in the blends was assessed by low-amplitude isochronal temperature sweeps, the spatial distribution of MWNTs in the blends was evaluated by PFQNM, and the hierarchical polymer chain dynamics was studied by DRS. It was observed that the miscibility, concentration fluctuation, and cooperative relaxations of the PS/PVME blends are strongly governed by the spatial distribution of MWNTs in the blends. These findings should help guide theories and simulations of hierarchical chain dynamics in LCST mixtures containing rodlike nanoparticles.

Evidence for 3D isotropic long range spin-spin interaction near the ferromagnetic transition in bulk and thin film SrRuO3

In the case of metallic ferromagnets there has always been a controversy, i.e. whether the magnetic interaction is itinerant or localized. For example SrRuO3 is known to be an itinerant ferromagnet where the spin-spin interaction is expected to be mean field in nature. However, it is reported to behave like Ising, Heisenberg or mean field by different groups. Despite several theoretical and experimental studies and the importance of strongly correlated systems, the experimental conclusion regarding the type of spin-spin interaction in SrRuO3 is lacking. To resolve this issue, we have investigated the critical behaviour in the vicinity of the paramagnetic-ferromagnetic phase transition using various techniques on polycrystalline as well as (001) oriented SrRuO3 films. Our analysis reveals that the application of a scaling law in the field-cooled magnetization data extracts the value of the critical exponent only when it is measured at H -> 0. To substantiate the actual nature without any ambiguity, the critical behavior is studied across the phase transition using the modified Arrott plot, Kouvel-Fisher plot and M-H isotherms. The critical analysis yields self-consistent beta, gamma and delta values and the spin interaction follows the long-range mean field model. Further the directional dependence of the critical exponent is studied in thin films and it reveals the isotropic nature. It is elucidated that the different experimental protocols followed by different groups are the reason for the ambiguity in determining the critical exponents in SrRuO3.

Localized Excitations and the Morphology of Cooperatively Rearranging Regions in a Colloidal Glass-Forming Liquid

We develop a scheme based on a real space microscopic analysis of particle dynamics to ascertain the relevance of dynamical facilitation as a mechanism of structural relaxation in glass-forming liquids. By analyzing the spatial organization of localized excitations within clusters of mobile particles in a colloidal glass former and examining their partitioning into shell-like and corelike regions, we establish the existence of a crossover from a facilitation-dominated regime at low area fractions to a collective activated hopping-dominated one close to the glass transition. This crossover occurs in the vicinity of the area fraction at which the peak of the mobility transfer function exhibits a maximum and the morphology of cooperatively rearranging regions changes from stringlike to a compact form. Collectively, our findings suggest that dynamical facilitation is dominated by collective hopping close to the glass transition, thereby constituting a crucial step towards identifying the correct theoretical scenario for glass formation.

Nanomechanical Mapping, Hierarchical Polymer Dynamics, and Miscibility in the Presence of Chain-End Grafted Nanoparticles

To improve the spatial distribution of nano particles in a polymeric host and to enhance the interfacial interaction with the host, the use of chain-end grafted nanoparticle has gained popularity in the field of polymeric nanocomposites. Besides changing the material properties of the host, these grafted nanoparticles strongly alter the dynamics of the polymer chain at both local and cooperative length scales (relaxations) by manipulating the enthalpic and entropic interactions. It is difficult to map the distribution of these chain-end grafted nanoparticles in the blend by conventional techniques, and herein, we attempted to characterize it by unique technique(s) like peak force quantitative nanomechanical mapping (PFQNM) through AFM (atomic force microscopy) imaging and dielectric relaxation spectroscopy (DRS). Such techniques, besides shedding light on the spatial distribution of the nanoparticles, also give critical information on the changing elasticity at smaller length scales and hierarchical polymer chain dynamics in the vicinity of the nanoparticles. The effect of one-dimensional rodlike multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWNTs), with the characteristic dimension of the order of the radius of gyration of the polymeric chain, on the phase miscibility and chain dynamics in a classical LCST mixture of polystyrene/ poly(vinyl methyl ether) (PS/PVME) was examined in detail using the above techniques. In order to tune the localization of the nanotubes, different molecular weights of PS (13, 31, and 46 kDa), synthesized using RAFT (reversible addition fragmentation chain transfer) polymerization, was grafted onto MWNTs in situ. The thermodynamic miscibility in the blends was assessed by low-amplitude isochronal temperature sweeps, the spatial distribution of MWNTs in the blends was evaluated by PFQNM, and the hierarchical polymer chain dynamics was studied by DRS. It was observed that the miscibility, concentration fluctuation, and cooperative relaxations of the PS/PVME blends are strongly governed by the spatial distribution of MWNTs in the blends. These findings should help guide theories and simulations of hierarchical chain dynamics in LCST mixtures containing rodlike nanoparticles.

Transitions and blowoff of unconfined non-premixed swirling flame

The present experimental work reports the first observations of primary and secondary transitions in the time-averaged flame topology in a non-premixed swirling flame as the geometric swirl number S-G (a non dimensional number used to quantify the intensity of imparted swirl) is varied from a magnitude of zero till flame blowout. First observations of two transition types viz. primary and secondary transitions are reported. The primary transition represents a transformation from yellow straight jet flame (at S-G = 0) to lifted flame with blue base and finally to swirling seated (burner attached) yellow flame. Time-averaged streamline plot obtained from 2D PIV in mid-longitudinal plane shows a recirculation zone (RZ) at the immediate vicinity of burner exit. The lifted flame is stabilized along the vortex core of this RZ. Further, when S-G similar to 1.4-3, the first occurrence of vortex breakdown (VB) induced internal recirculation zone (IRZ) is witnessed. The flame now stabilizes at the upstream stagnation point of the VB-IRZ, which is attached to the burner lip. The secondary transition represents a transformation from a swirling seated flame to swirling flame with a conical tailpiece and finally to a highly-swirled near blowout oxidizer-rich flame. This transition is understood to be the result of transition in vortex breakdown modes of the swirling flow field from dual-ring VB bubble to central toroidal recirculation zone (CTRZ). The physics of transition is described on the basis of modified Rossby number (Ro(m)). Finally, when the swirl intensity is very high i.e. SG similar to 10, the flame blows out due to excessive straining and due to entrainment of large amount of oxidizer due to partial premixing. The present investigation involving changes in flame topology is immensely important because any change in global flame structure causes oscillatory heat release that can couple with dynamic pressure and velocity fluctuations leading to unsteady combustion. In this light, understanding mechanisms of flame stabilization is essential to tackle the problem of thermo-acoustic instability. (C) 2015 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evidence for 3D isotropic long range spin-spin interaction near the ferromagnetic transition in bulk and thin film SrRuO3

In the case of metallic ferromagnets there has always been a controversy, i.e. whether the magnetic interaction is itinerant or localized. For example SrRuO3 is known to be an itinerant ferromagnet where the spin-spin interaction is expected to be mean field in nature. However, it is reported to behave like Ising, Heisenberg or mean field by different groups. Despite several theoretical and experimental studies and the importance of strongly correlated systems, the experimental conclusion regarding the type of spin-spin interaction in SrRuO3 is lacking. To resolve this issue, we have investigated the critical behaviour in the vicinity of the paramagnetic-ferromagnetic phase transition using various techniques on polycrystalline as well as (001) oriented SrRuO3 films. Our analysis reveals that the application of a scaling law in the field-cooled magnetization data extracts the value of the critical exponent only when it is measured at H -> 0. To substantiate the actual nature without any ambiguity, the critical behavior is studied across the phase transition using the modified Arrott plot, Kouvel-Fisher plot and M-H isotherms. The critical analysis yields self-consistent beta, gamma and delta values and the spin interaction follows the long-range mean field model. Further the directional dependence of the critical exponent is studied in thin films and it reveals the isotropic nature. It is elucidated that the different experimental protocols followed by different groups are the reason for the ambiguity in determining the critical exponents in SrRuO3.

The 2014 M-w 6.1 Bay of Bengal, Indian Ocean, Earthquake: A Possible Association with the 85 degrees E Ridge

Oceanic intraplate earthquakes are known to occur either on active ridge-transform structures or by reactivation of their inactive counterparts, generally referred to as fossil ridges or transforms. The Indian Ocean, one of the most active oceanic intraplate regions, has generated large earthquakes associated with both these types of structures. The moderate earthquake that occurred on 21 May 2014 (M-w 6.1) in the northern Bay of Bengal followed an alternate mechanism, as it showed no clear association either with active or extinct ridge-transform structures. Its focal depth of >50 km is uncommon but not improbable, given the similar to 90 Ma age of the ocean floor with 12-km-thick overlying sediments. No tectonic features have been mapped in the near vicinity of its epicenter, the closest being the 85 degrees E ridge, located similar to 100 km to its west, hitherto regarded as seismically inactive. The few earthquakes that have occurred here in the past are clustered around its southern or northern limits, and a few are located midway, at around 10 degrees N. The 2014 earthquake, sourced close to the northern cluster, seems to be associated with a northwest-southeast-oriented fracture, located on the eastern flanks of the 85 degrees E ridge. If this causal association is possible, we believe that reactivation of fossil hotspot trails could be considered as another mechanism for oceanic intraplate seismicity.

Novel synergistic photocatalytic degradation of antibiotics and bacteria using V-N doped TiO2 under visible light: the state of nitrogen in V-doped TiO2

We report the synthesis of vanadium and nitrogen co-doped TiO2 for photocatalysis mainly emphasizing the state of nitrogen doping into TiO2 in the presence of vanadium ions. Considering the increase in antibiotic resistance developed by microbes due to the excess of pharmaceutical waste in the ecosystem, the photocatalytic activity was measured by degrading an antibiotic, chloramphenicol. A novel experiment was conducted by degrading the antibiotic and bacteria in each other's vicinity to focus on their synergistic photo-degradation by V-N co-doped TiO2. The catalysts were characterized using XRD, DRS, PL, TEM, BET and XPS analysis. Both interstitial and substitutional nitrogen doping were achieved with V-TiO2, showing high efficiency under visible light for antibiotic and bacterial degradation. In addition, the effect of doping concentration of nitrogen and vanadium in TiO2 and catalyst loading was studied thoroughly. Reusability experiments show that the prepared V-N co-doped TiO2 was stable for many cycles.