Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow

Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5A degrees. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960-1990), showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region.

Two-Phase Flow With Phase Change in Porous Channels

Phase change heat transfer in porous media finds applications in various geological flows and modern heat pipes. We present a study to show the effect of phase change on heat transfer in a porous channel. We show that the ratio of Jakob numbers based on wall superheat and inlet fluid subcooling governs the liquid-vapor interface location in the porous channel and below a critical value of the ratio, the liquid penetrates all the way to the extent of the channel in the flow direction. In such cases, the Nusselt number is higher due to the proximity of the liquid-vapor interface to the heat loads. For higher heat loads or lower subcooling of the liquid, the liquid-vapor interface is pushed toward the inlet, and heat transfer occurs through a wider vapor region thus resulting in a lower Nusselt number. This study is relevant in the designing of efficient two-phase heat exchangers such as capillary suction based heat pipes where a prior estimation of the interface location for the maximum heat load is required to ensure that the liquid-vapor interface is always inside the porous block for its operation.

Rational molecular dynamics scheme for predicting optimum concentration loading of nano-additive in phase change materials

The present study deals with the diffusion and phase transition behaviour of paraffin reinforced with carbon nano-additives namely graphene oxide (GO) and surface functionalized single walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNT). Bulk disordered systems of paraffin hydrocarbons impregnated with carbon nano-additives have been generated in realistic equilibrium conformations for potential application as latent heat storage systems. Ab initio molecular dynamics(MD) in conjugation with COMPASS forcefield has been implemented using periodic boundary conditions. The proposed scheme allows determination of optimum nano-additive loading for improving thermo-physical properties through analysis of mass, thermal and transport properties; and assists in determination of composite behaviour and related performance from microscopic point of view. It was observed that nanocomposites containing 7.8% surface functionalised SWCNT and 55% GO loading corresponds to best latent heat storage system. The propounded methodology could serve as a by-pass route for economically taxing and iterative experimental procedures required to attain the optimum composition for best performance. The results also hint at the large unexplored potential of ab-initio classical MD techniques for predicting performance of new nanocomposites for potential phase change material applications. (C) 2015 Author(s).

Mechanism of improvement in the strength and volume change behavior of lime stabilized soil

An attempt has been made to bring out the influence on strength and volume change behavior of fabric changes and new cementitious compound formation in a soil upon addition of various lime contents and with curing periods. The effects of changes in fabric of treatment with various lime contents (0, 2,4 and 6%) and with curing periods (0, 7, 14 and 28 days) have been evaluated by one-dimensional consolidation tests, in terms of void ratio changes and compressibility. The strength of soil treated with different lime contents with curing periods up to 28 days, and with the optimum lime content of 6% up to one year has been determined by unconfined compression tests. Comparison of effects of lime on the strength and volume change behavior of the soil brings out that the formation of flocculated fabric and cation exchange significantly reduces the compressibility of soil but marginally increases the strength. Cementation of soil particles and filling with cementitious compounds of the voids of flocculated fabric in the soil marginally reduces the compressibility but significantly increases the strength. Thus, the mechanism of volume change behavior of soil treated with lower lime content at short curing periods is distinctly different from that of the soil treated with optimum lime content at longer curing periods. This is consistent with the increase in the permeability caused by the addition from 2 to 4% lime and the decrease following the addition of 6% lime. Changes consistent with mechanical behavior have been determined by scanning electron microscope, X-ray diffraction and thermal analyses, energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer and pH value in microstructure, mineralogy, chemical composition and alkalinity, respectively. (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Volume change behavior of lime treated gypseous soil - influence of mineralogy and microstructure

Series of oedometer tests and micro-analytical studies (XRD, SEM and EDAX) have been carried out to investigate the influence of varying gypsum content on swell, compressibility and permeability of lime treated montmorillonitic soil after curing for different period. Immediate swell is observed on inundation of compacted samples with water and continuously increased with gypsum content. However, changes in swell are found to be marginal with curing. This is attributed to the formation and growth of ettringite crystals by ionic reactions of aluminum calcium-sulfate in the presence of water which is confirmed through detailed micro-analysis. The higher swell in uncured specimens and gradual reduction in swell with increase in curing periods are due to relative dominance of formation and growth of ettringite and cementitious compounds, respectively. Also, the ionic reaction products are found to bear a significant influence on the compressibility and permeability behavior. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fast and slow climate responses to CO2 and solar forcing: A linear multivariate regression model characterizing transient climate change

Climate change in response to a change in external forcing can be understood in terms of fast response to the imposed forcing and slow feedback associated with surface temperature change. Previous studies have investigated the characteristics of fast response and slow feedback for different forcing agents. Here we examine to what extent that fast response and slow feedback derived from time-mean results of climate model simulations can be used to infer total climate change. To achieve this goal, we develop a multivariate regression model of climate change, in which the change in a climate variable is represented by a linear combination of its sensitivity to CO2 forcing, solar forcing, and change in global mean surface temperature. We derive the parameters of the regression model using time-mean results from a set of HadCM3L climate model step-forcing simulations, and then use the regression model to emulate HadCM3L-simulated transient climate change. Our results show that the regression model emulates well HadCM3L-simulated temporal evolution and spatial distribution of climate change, including surface temperature, precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, cloudiness, and radiative fluxes under transient CO2 and/or solar forcing scenarios. Our findings suggest that temporal and spatial patterns of total change for the climate variables considered here can be represented well by the sum of fast response and slow feedback. Furthermore, by using a simple 1-D heat-diffusion climate model, we show that the temporal and spatial characteristics of climate change under transient forcing scenarios can be emulated well using information from step-forcing simulations alone.