Sheltered coastal environments as archives of paleo-tsunami deposits: Observations from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

The 2004 earthquake left several traces of coseismic land deformation and tsunami deposits, both on the islands along the plate boundary and distant shores of the Indian Ocean rim countries. Researchers are now exploring these sites to develop a chronology of past events. Where the coastal regions are also inundated by storm surges, there is an additional challenge to discriminate between the deposits formed by these two processes. Paleo-tsunami research relies largely on finding deposits where preservation potential is high and storm surge origin can be excluded. During the past decade of our work along the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the east coast of India, we have observed that the 2004 tsunami deposits are best preserved in lagoons, inland streams and also on elevated terraces. Chronological evidence for older events obtained from such sites is better correlated with those from Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia, reiterating their usefulness in tsunami geology studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian parameter identification in dynamic state space models using modified measurement equations

When Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers are used in problems of system parameter identification, one would face computational difficulties in dealing with large amount of measurement data and (or) low levels of measurement noise. Such exigencies are likely to occur in problems of parameter identification in dynamical systems when amount of vibratory measurement data and number of parameters to be identified could be large. In such cases, the posterior probability density function of the system parameters tends to have regions of narrow supports and a finite length MCMC chain is unlikely to cover pertinent regions. The present study proposes strategies based on modification of measurement equations and subsequent corrections, to alleviate this difficulty. This involves artificial enhancement of measurement noise, assimilation of transformed packets of measurements, and a global iteration strategy to improve the choice of prior models. Illustrative examples cover laboratory studies on a time variant dynamical system and a bending-torsion coupled, geometrically non-linear building frame under earthquake support motions. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Medieval pulse of great earthquakes in the central Himalaya: Viewing past activities on the frontal thrust

The Himalaya has experienced three great earthquakes during the last century1934 Nepal-Bihar, 1950 Upper Assam, and arguably the 1905 Kangra. Focus here is on the central Himalayan segment between the 1905 and the 1934 ruptures, where previous studies have identified a great earthquake between thirteenth and sixteenth centuries. Historical data suggest damaging earthquakes in A.D. 1255, 1344, 1505, 1803, and 1833, although their sources and magnitudes remain debated. We present new evidence for a great earthquake from a trench across the base of a 13m high scarp near Ramnagar at the Himalayan Frontal Thrust. The section exposed four south verging fault strands and a backthrust offsetting a broad spectrum of lithounits, including colluvial deposits. Age data suggest that the last great earthquake in the central Himalaya most likely occurred between A.D. 1259 and 1433. While evidence for this rupture is unmistakable, the stratigraphic clues imply an earlier event, which can most tentatively be placed between A.D. 1050 and 1250. The postulated existence of this earlier event, however, requires further validation. If the two-earthquake scenario is realistic, then the successive ruptures may have occurred in close intervals and were sourced on adjacent segments that overlapped at the trench site. Rupture(s) identified in the trench closely correlate with two damaging earthquakes of 1255 and 1344 reported from Nepal. The present study suggests that the frontal thrust in central Himalaya may have remained seismically inactive during the last similar to 700years. Considering this long elapsed time, a great earthquake may be due in the region.

Girsanov Transformation-Based Reliability Modeling and Testing of Actively Controlled Structures

The problem of estimation of the time-variant reliability of actively controlled structural dynamical systems under stochastic excitations is considered. Monte Carlo simulations, reinforced with Girsanov transformation-based sampling variance reduction, are used to tackle the problem. In this approach, the external excitations are biased by an additional artificial control force. The conflicting objectives of the two control forces-one designed to reduce structural responses and the other to promote limit-state violations (but to reduce sampling variance)-are noted. The control for variance reduction is fashioned after design-point oscillations based on a first-order reliability method. It is shown that for structures that are amenable to laboratory testing, the reliability can be estimated experimentally with reduced testing times by devising a procedure based on the ideas of the Girsanov transformation. Illustrative examples include studies on a building frame with a magnetorheologic damper-based isolation system subject to nonstationary random earthquake excitations. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Geomorphology reveals active decollement geometry in the central Himalayan seismic gap

The similar to 700-km-long ``central seismic gap'' is the most prominent segment of the Himalayan front not to have ruptured in a major earthquake during the last 200-500 yr. This prolonged seismic quiescence has led to the proposition that this region, with a population >10 million, is overdue for a great earthquake. Despite the region's recognized seismic risk, the geometry of faults likely to host large earthquakes remains poorly understood. Here, we place new constraints on the spatial distribution of rock uplift within the western similar to 400 km of the central seismic gap using topographic and river profile analyses together with basinwide erosion rate estimates from cosmogenic Be-10. The data sets show a distinctive physiographic transition at the base of the high Himalaya in the state of Uttarakhand, India, characterized by abrupt strike-normal increases in channel steepness and a tenfold increase in erosion rates. When combined with previously published geophysical imaging and seismicity data sets, we interpret the observed spatial distribution of erosion rates and channel steepness to reflect the landscape response to spatially variable rock uplift due to a structurally coherent ramp-flat system of the Main Himalayan Thrust. Although it remains unresolved whether the kinematics of the Main Himalayan Thrust ramp involve an emergent fault or duplex, the landscape and erosion rate patterns suggest that the decollement beneath the state of Uttarakhand provides a sufficiently large and coherent fault segment capable of hosting a great earthquake.

Seismic hazard maps and spectrum for Patna considering region-specific seismotectonic parameters

The objective of this paper was to develop the seismic hazard maps of Patna district considering the region-specific maximum magnitude and ground motion prediction equation (GMPEs) by worst-case deterministic and classical probabilistic approaches. Patna, located near Himalayan active seismic region has been subjected to destructive earthquakes such as 1803 and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquakes. Based on the past seismicity and earthquake damage distribution, linear sources and seismic events have been considered at radius of about 500 km around Patna district center. Maximum magnitude (M (max)) has been estimated based on the conventional approaches such as maximum observed magnitude (M (max) (obs) ) and/or increment of 0.5, Kijko method and regional rupture characteristics. Maximum of these three is taken as maximum probable magnitude for each source. Twenty-seven ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are found applicable for Patna region. Of these, suitable region-specific GMPEs are selected by performing the `efficacy test,' which makes use of log-likelihood. Maximum magnitude and selected GMPEs are used to estimate PGA and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1 s and mapped for worst-case deterministic approach and 2 and 10 % period of exceedance in 50 years. Furthermore, seismic hazard results are used to develop the deaggregation plot to quantify the contribution of seismic sources in terms of magnitude and distance. In this study, normalized site-specific design spectrum has been developed by dividing the hazard map into four zones based on the peak ground acceleration values. This site-specific response spectrum has been compared with recent Sikkim 2011 earthquake and Indian seismic code IS1893.

Effects of site stiffness and source to receiver distance on surface wave tests' results

By using six 4.5 Hz geophones, surface wave tests were performed on four different sites by dropping freely a 65 kg mass from a height of 5 m. The receivers were kept far away from the source to eliminate the arrival of body waves. Three different sources to nearest receiver distances (S), namely, 46 m, 56 m and 66 m, were chosen. Dispersion curves were drawn for all the sites. The maximum wavelength (lambda(max)), the maximum depth (d(max)) up to which exploration can be made and the frequency content of the signals depends on the site stiffness and the value of S. A stiffer site yields greater values of lambda(max) and d(max). For stiffer sites, an increase in S leads to an increase in lambda(max). The predominant time durations of the signals increase from stiffer to softer sites. An inverse analysis was also performed based on the stiffness matrix approach in conjunction with the maximum vertical flexibility coefficient of ground surface to establish the governing mode of excitation. For the Site 2, the results from the surface wave tests were found to compare reasonably well with that determined on the basis of cross boreholes seismic tests. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seismotectonics of the April-May 2015 Nepal earthquakes: An assessment based on the aftershock patterns, surface effects and deformational characteristics

Occurrence of the April 25, 2015 (Mw 7.8) earthquake near Gorkha, central Nepal, and another one that followed on May 12 (Mw 7.3), located similar to 140 km to its east, provides an exceptional opportunity to understand some new facets of Himalayan earthquakes. Here we attempt to assess the seismotectonics of these earthquakes based on the deformational field generated by these events, along with the spatial and temporal characteristics of their aftershocks. When integrated with some of the post-earthquake field observations, including the localization of damage and surface deformation, it became obvious that although the mainshock slip was mostly limited to the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the rupture did not propagate to the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). Field evidence, supported by the available InSAR imagery of the deformation field, suggests that a component of slip could have emerged through a previously identified out-of-sequence thrust/active thrust in the region that parallels the Main Central Thrust (MCT), known in the literature as a co-linear physiographic transitional zone called PT2. Termination of the first rupture, triggering of the second large earthquake, and distribution of aftershocks are also spatially constrained by the eastern extremity of PT2. Mechanism of the 2015 sequence demonstrates that the out-of-sequence thrusts may accommodate part of the slip, an aspect that needs to be considered in the current understanding of the mechanism of earthquakes originating on the MHT. (c) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seismic intensity map of South India for estimated future earthquakes

In this study, an attempt has been made to prepare the seismic intensity map for south India considering the probable earthquakes in the region. Anbazhagan et al. (Nat Hazards 60:1325-1345, 2012) have identified eight probable future earthquake zones in south India based on rupture-based seismic hazard analysis. Anbazhagan et al. (Eng Geol 171:81-95, 2014) has estimated the maximum future earthquake magnitude at these eight zones using regional rupture character. In this study, the whole south India is divided into several grids of size 1(o) x 1(o) and the intensity at each grid point is calculated using the regional intensity model for the maximum earthquake magnitude at each of the eight zones. The intensity due to earthquakes at these zones is mapped and thus eight seismic intensity maps are prepared. The final seismic intensity map of south India is obtained by considering the maximum intensity at each grid point due to the estimated earthquakes. By looking at the seismic intensity map, one can expect slight to heavy damage due to the probable earthquake magnitudes. Heavy damage may happen close to the probable earthquake zones.

Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

Optimal input cross-power spectra in shake table testing of asymmetric structures

The study considers earthquake shake table testing of bending-torsion coupled structures under multi-component stationary random earthquake excitations. An experimental procedure to arrive at the optimal excitation cross-power spectral density (psd) functions which maximize/minimize the steady state variance of a chosen response variable is proposed. These optimal functions are shown to be derivable in terms of a set of system frequency response functions which could be measured experimentally without necessitating an idealized mathematical model to be postulated for the structure under study. The relationship between these optimized cross-psd functions to the most favourable/least favourable angle of incidence of seismic waves on the structure is noted. The optimal functions are also shown to be system dependent, mathematically the sharpest, and correspond to neither fully correlated motions nor independent motions. The proposed experimental procedure is demonstrated through shake table studies on two laboratory scale building frame models.

Population Recovery of Nicobar Long-Tailed Macaque Macaca fascicularis umbrosus following a Tsunami in the Nicobar Islands, India

Natural disasters pose a threat to isolated populations of species with restricted distributions, especially those inhabiting islands. The Nicobar long tailed macaque. Macaca fascicularis umbrosus, is one such species found in the three southernmost islands (viz. Great Nicobar, Little Nicobar and Katchal) of the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago, India. These islands were hit by a massive tsunami (Indian Ocean tsunami, 26 December 2004) after a 9.2 magnitude earthquake. Earlier studies Umapathy et al. 2003; Sivakumar, 2004] reported a sharp decline in the population of M. f. umbrosus after thetsunami. We studied the distribution and population status of M. f. umbrosus on thethree Nicobar Islands and compared our results with those of the previous studies. We carried out trail surveys on existing paths and trails on three islands to get encounter rate as measure of abundance. We also checked the degree of inundation due to tsunami by using Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) on landsat imageries of the study area before and after tsunami. Theencounter rate of groups per kilometre of M. f. umbrosus in Great Nicobar, Little Nicobar and Katchal was 0.30, 0.35 and 0.48 respectively with the mean group size of 39 in Great Nicobar and 43 in Katchal following the tsunami. This was higher than that reported in the two earlier studies conducted before and after the tsunami. Post tsunami, there was a significant change in the proportion of adult males, adult females and immatures, but mean group size did not differ as compared to pre tsunami. The results show that population has recovered from a drastic decline caused by tsunami, but it cannot be ascertained whether it has reached stability because of the altered group structure. This study demonstrates the effect of natural disasters on island occurring species.