Causality analysis of groundwater dynamics based on a Vector Autoregressive model in the semi-arid basin of Gundal (South India)

Causal relationships existing between observed levels of groundwater in a semi-arid sub-basin of the Kabini River basin (Karnataka state, India) are investigated in this study. A Vector Auto Regressive model is used for this purpose. Its structure is built on an upstream/downstream interaction network based on observed hydro-physical properties. Exogenous climatic forcing is used as an input based on cumulated rainfall departure. Optimal models are obtained thanks to a trial approach and are used as a proxy of the dynamics to derive causal networks. It appears to be an interesting tool for analysing the causal relationships existing inside the basin. The causal network reveals 3 main regions: the Northeastern part of the Gundal basin is closely coupled to the outlet dynamics. The Northwestern part is mainly controlled by the climatic forcing and only marginally linked to the outlet dynamic. Finally, the upper part of the basin plays as a forcing rather than a coupling with the lower part of the basin allowing for a separate analysis of this local behaviour. The analysis also reveals differential time scales at work inside the basin when comparing upstream oriented with downstream oriented causalities. In the upper part of the basin, time delays are close to 2 months in the upward direction and lower than 1 month in the downward direction. These time scales are likely to be good indicators of the hydraulic response time of the basin which is a parameter usually difficult to estimate practically. This suggests that, at the sub-basin scale, intra-annual time scales would be more relevant scales for analysing or modelling tropical basin dynamics in hard rock (granitic and gneissic) aquifers ubiquitous in south India. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rodent seed predation: effects on seed survival, recruitment, abundance, and dispersion of bird-dispersed tropical trees

Tropical tree species vary widely in their pattern of spatial dispersion. We focus on how seed predation may modify seed deposition patterns and affect the abundance and dispersion of adult trees in a tropical forest in India. Using plots across a range of seed densities, we examined whether seed predation levels by terrestrial rodents varied across six large-seeded, bird-dispersed tree species. Since inter-specific variation in density-dependent seed mortality may have downstream effects on recruitment and adult tree stages, we determined recruitment patterns close to and away from parent trees, along with adult tree abundance and dispersion patterns. Four species (Canarium resiniferum, Dysoxylum binectariferum, Horsfieldia kingii, and Prunus ceylanica) showed high predation levels (78.5-98.7%) and increased mortality with increasing seed density, while two species, Chisocheton cumingianus and Polyalthia simiarum, showed significantly lower seed predation levels and weak density-dependent mortality. The latter two species also had the highest recruitment near parent trees, with most abundant and aggregated adults. The four species that had high seed mortality had low recruitment under parent trees, were rare, and had more spaced adult tree dispersion. Biotic dispersal may be vital for species that suffer density-dependent mortality factors under parent trees. In tropical forests where large vertebrate seed dispersers but not seed predators are hunted, differences in seed vulnerability to rodent seed predation and density-dependent mortality can affect forest structure and composition.

How good are the simulations of tropical SST-rainfall relationship by IPCC AR4 atmospheric and coupled models?

The failure of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by prescribed SST to simulate and predict the interannual variability of Indian/Asian monsoon has been widely attributed to their inability to reproduce the actual sea surface temperature (SST)-rainfall relationship in the warm Indo-Pacific oceans. This assessment is based on a comparison of the observed and simulated correlation between the rainfall and local SST. However, the observed SSTconvection/rainfall relationship is nonlinear and for this a linear measure such as the correlation is not an appropriate measure. We show that the SST-rainfall relationship simulated by atmospheric and coupled general circulation models in IPCC AR4 is nonlinear, as observed, and realistic over the tropical West Pacific (WPO) and the Indian Ocean (IO). The SST-rainfall pattern simulated by the coupled versions of these models is rather similar to that from the corresponding atmospheric one, except for a shift of the entire pattern to colder/warmer SSTs when there is a cold/warm bias in the coupled version.

Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon(1-3). With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses(4-9). As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world's major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve `health': about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.

Cumulus clouds and convective boundary layers: a tropical perspective on two turbulent shear flows

This paper is a review prepared for the second Marseille Colloquium on the mechanics of turbulence, held in 2011, 50 years after the first. The review covers recent developments in our understanding of the large-scale dynamics of cumulus cloud flows and of the atmospheric boundary layer in the low-wind convective regime that is often encountered in the tropics. It has recently been shown that a variety of cumulus cloud forms and life cycles can be experimentally realized in the laboratory, with the transient diabatic plume taken as the flow model for a cumulus cloud. The plume is subjected to diabatic heating scaled to be dynamically similar to heat release from phase changes in clouds. The experiments are complemented by exact numerical solutions of the Navier-Stokes-Boussinesq equations for plumes with scaled off-source heating. The results show that the Taylor entrainment coefficient first increases with heating, reaches a positive maximum and then drops rapidly to zero or even negative values. This reduction in entrainment is a consequence of structural changes in the flow, smoothing out the convoluted boundaries in the non-diabatic plume, including the tongues engulfing the ambient flow. This is accompanied by a greater degree of mixedness in the core flow because of lower dilution by the ambient fluid. The cloud forms generated depend strongly on the history of the diabatic heating profile in the vertical direction. The striking effects of heating on the flow are attributable to the operation of the baroclinic torque due to the temperature field. The mean baroclinic torque is shown to peak around a quasi-cylindrical sheet situated midway between the axis of the flow and the edges. This torque is shear-enhancing and folds down the engulfment tongues. The increase in mixedness can be traced to an explosive growth in the enstrophy, triggered by a strong fluctuating baroclinic torque that acts as a source, especially at the higher wave numbers, thus enhancing the mixedness. In convective boundary layers field measurements show that, under conditions prevailing in the tropics, the eddy fluxes of momentum and energy do not follow the Monin-Obukhov similarity. Instead, the eddy momentum flux is found to be linear in the wind speed at low winds; and the eddy heat flux is, to a first approximation, governed by free convection laws, with wind acting as a small perturbation on a regime of free convection. A new boundary layer code, based on heat flux scaling rather than wall-stress scaling, shows promising improvements in predictive skills of a general circulation model.

RRI-GBT MULTI-BAND RECEIVER: MOTIVATION, DESIGN, AND DEVELOPMENT

We report the design and development of a self-contained multi-band receiver (MBR) system, intended for use with a single large aperture to facilitate sensitive and high time-resolution observations simultaneously in 10 discrete frequency bands sampling a wide spectral span (100-1500 MHz) in a nearly log-periodic fashion. The development of this system was primarily motivated by need for tomographic studies of pulsar polar emission regions. Although the system design is optimized for the primary goal, it is also suited for several other interesting astronomical investigations. The system consists of a dual-polarization multi-band feed (with discrete responses corresponding to the 10 bands pre-selected as relatively radio frequency interference free), a common wide-band radio frequency front-end, and independent back-end receiver chains for the 10 individual sub-bands. The raw voltage time sequences corresponding to 16 MHz bandwidth each for the two linear polarization channels and the 10 bands are recorded at the Nyquist rate simultaneously. We present the preliminary results from the tests and pulsar observations carried out with the Robert C. Byrd Green Bank Telescope using this receiver. The system performance implied by these results and possible improvements are also briefly discussed.

Prediction of Ground Water Levels in the Uplands of a Tropical Coastal Riparian Wetland using Artificial Neural Networks

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been found to be a robust tool to model many non-linear hydrological processes. The present study aims at evaluating the performance of ANN in simulating and predicting ground water levels in the uplands of a tropical coastal riparian wetland. The study involves comparison of two network architectures, Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) trained under five algorithms namely Levenberg Marquardt algorithm, Resilient Back propagation algorithm, BFGS Quasi Newton algorithm, Scaled Conjugate Gradient algorithm, and Fletcher Reeves Conjugate Gradient algorithm by simulating the water levels in a well in the study area. The study is analyzed in two cases-one with four inputs to the networks and two with eight inputs to the networks. The two networks-five algorithms in both the cases are compared to determine the best performing combination that could simulate and predict the process satisfactorily. Ad Hoc (Trial and Error) method is followed in optimizing network structure in all cases. On the whole, it is noticed from the results that the Artificial Neural Networks have simulated and predicted the water levels in the well with fair accuracy. This is evident from low values of Normalized Root Mean Square Error and Relative Root Mean Square Error and high values of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Index and Correlation Coefficient (which are taken as the performance measures to calibrate the networks) calculated after the analysis. On comparison of ground water levels predicted with those at the observation well, FFNN trained with Fletcher Reeves Conjugate Gradient algorithm taken four inputs has outperformed all other combinations.

A channel-aware, fast sub-channel to user assignment algorithm in OFDMA systems

Channel-aware assignment of sub-channels to users in the downlink of an OFDMA system demands extensive feedback of channel state information (CSI) to the base station. Since the feedback bandwidth is often very scarce, schemes that limit feedback are necessary. We develop a novel, low feedback splitting-based algorithm for assigning each sub-channel to its best user, i.e., the user with the highest gain for that sub-channel among all users. The key idea behind the algorithm is that, at any time, each user contends for the sub-channel on which it has the largest channel gain among the unallocated sub-channels. Unlike other existing schemes, the algorithm explicitly handles multiple access control aspects associated with the feedback of CSI. A tractable asymptotic analysis of a system with a large number of users helps design the algorithm. It yields 50% to 65% throughput gains compared to an asymptotically optimal one-bit feedback scheme, when the number of users is as small as 10 or as large as 1000. The algorithm is fast and distributed, and scales with the number of users.

Performance of established native seedlings in relation to invasive Lantana camara, rainfall and species' habitat preferences in a seasonally dry tropical forest

Native species' response to the presence of invasive species is context specific. This response cannot be studied in isolation from the prevailing environmental stresses in invaded habitats such as seasonal drought. We investigated the combined effects of an invasive shrub Lantana camara L. (lantana), seasonal rainfall and species' microsite preferences on the growth and survival of 1,105 naturally established seedlings of native trees and shrubs in a seasonally dry tropical forest. Individuals were followed from April 2008 to February 2010, and growth and survival measured in relation to lantana density, seasonality of rainfall and species characteristics in a 50-ha permanent forest plot located in Mudumalai, southern India. We used a mixed effects modelling approach to examine seedling growth and generalized linear models to examine seedling survival. The overall relative height growth rate of established seedlings was found to be very low irrespective of the presence or absence of dense lantana. 22-month growth rate of dry forest species was lower under dense lantana while moist forest species were not affected by the presence of lantana thickets. 4-month growth rates of all species increased with increasing inter-census rainfall. Community results may be influenced by responses of the most abundant species, Catunaregam spinosa, whose growth rates were always lower under dense lantana. Overall seedling survival was high, increased with increasing rainfall and was higher for species with dry forest preference than for species with moist forest preference. The high survival rates of naturally established seedlings combined with their basal sprouting ability in this forest could enable the persistence of woody species in the face of invasive species.

Water treatment potential in relation to phytoplankton dynamics in tropical sewage-fed urban water bodies

Urban water bodies frequently receive untreated sewage and water levels in such water bodies are maintained by daily inputs of sewage. They function as “variable-zone” anaerobic-aerobic lagoons suffering several macrophyte, biotic and abiotic stresses. We have studied two such lakes in Bangalore (Bellandur-360 ha and Varthur-220 ha) to understand whether such an occurrence could be made beneficial (maintaining water levels as well as treatment). Such hypertrophic water body receives sewage at 180-250mg/L and is discharged at 25-80mg/L COD/BOD in different seasons. In an earlier study we reported macrophyte altering the purification function of the water body. In this paper we studied the impact of phytoplankton dynamics and macrophyte cover on the functions such as organic load removal. Algal community analysis, algal biomass, macrophyte cover, water quality, nutrient status was studied seasonally during 2009-2010. Oxygen deficiency and sometimes anoxia, recorded from surface samples resulted in high quantities of NH4+-N (30-40mg/L) and phosphate (0.5-4mg/L)-characteristics of anoxic hypertrophic urban lakes. The productiveness favoured high phytoplanktonic community characterized by small cells (<10μm; Chlorella sp. - highest numbers). The lake could be clearly demarcated into an initial anaerobic zone (40% area), a facultative zone (20%) and an aerobic zone (40%) based on redox values and GIS/bathymetry. During summer the lake is covered by floating macrophytes converting the lake into an anoxic/anaerobic water pool subduing the water purification function as well as aesthetics. When macrophytes are controlled such sewage fed water bodies can be used for treating urban wastewater while also maintaining water sustainability in these semi-arid ecosystems. This paper reports the community dynamics of phytoplankton, their function and competition with macrophytes.

Longitudinal localization of tropical intraseasonal variability

Intraseasonal time-scales play an important role in tropical variability. Two modes that contribute significantly to tropical intraseasonal variability (ISV) are the eastward-propagating MaddenJulian Oscillation (MJO), and westward-moving moist equatorial Rossby waves. This note reports on a correspondence between the longitudinal gradient of mean tropical precipitable water (PW), and the geographical regions of genesis, and convective activity, of both these large-scale tropical systems. Our finding is based on an analysis of PW from the MERRA reanalysis product. The data indicate that the mean tropical PW has a dominant wavenumber two (three) structure in longitude in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Departures from a longitudinally homogeneous state are attributed to the influence of subtropical anticyclones, and are accentuated by monsoonal regions of both hemispheres. This mean structure results in a sharply localized longitudinal gradient of PW. Remarkably, regions with positive gradients (such as the Northern and Southern Hemisphere western Indian Ocean), i.e. they have larger PW to the east, are the very zones that are implicated in the formation, and show high levels of convective activity, of the eastward-moving MJO. On the other hand, regions with negative gradients (such as the Southern Hemisphere central Pacific) are the very regions where genesis, and maxima in variance, of westward-moving moist equatorial Rossby waves are known to occur. Apart from providing a first-order longitudinal footprint of the convective phase of these systems, this correspondence reinforces the role of the mean climatic state in tropical ISV. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Sub-band envelope approach to obtain instants of significant excitation in speech

In this paper, we propose a new sub-band approach to estimate the glottal activity. The method is based on the spectral harmonicity and the sub-band temporal properties of voiced speech. We propose a method to represent glottal excitation signal using sub-band temporal envelope. Instants of maximum glottal excitation or Glottal Closure Instants (GCI) are extracted from the estimated glottal excitation pattern and the result is compared with a standard GCI computation method, DYPSA [1]. The performance of the algorithm is also compared for the noisy signal and it is shown that the proposed method is less variant to GCI estimation under noisy conditions compared to DYPSA. The algorithm is evaluated on the CMU-ARCTIC database.

Microstructure and texture evolution during sub-transus thermomechanical processing of Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy: part I. hot rolling in (alpha plus beta) phase field

In the current study, the evolution of microstructure and texture has been studied for Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy during sub-transus thermomechanical processing. This part of the work deals with the deformation response of the alloy by rolling in the (alpha + beta) phase field. The (alpha + beta) annealing behavior of the rolled specimen is communicated in part II. Rolled microstructures of the alloys exhibit either kinked or straight alpha colonies depending on their orientations with respect to the principal rolling directions. The Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy shows an improved rolling response compared with the alloy Ti-6Al-4V because of smaller alpha lamellae size, coherency of alpha/beta interfaces, and multiple slip due to orientation factors. Accelerated dynamic globularization for this alloy is similarly caused by the intralamellar transverse boundary formation via multiple slip and strain accumulation at TiB particles. The (0002)(alpha) pole figures of rolled Ti-6Al-4V alloy shows ``TD splitting'' at lower rolling temperatures because of strong initial texture. Substantial beta phase mitigates the effect of starting texture at higher temperature so that ``RD splitting'' characterizes the basal pole figure. Weak starting texture and easy slip transfer for Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy produce simultaneous TD and RD splittings in basal pole figures at all rolling temperatures.

Microstructure and texture evolution during sub-transus thermo-mechanical processing of Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy: part II. static annealing in (alpha plus beta) regime

The first part of this study describes the evolution of microstructure and texture in Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy during sub-transus rolling vis-A -vis the control alloy Ti-6Al-4V. In the second part, the static annealing response of the two alloys at self-same conditions is compared and the principal micromechanisms are analyzed. Faster globularization kinetics has been observed in the Ti-6Al-4V-0.1B alloy for equivalent annealing conditions. This is primarily attributed to the alpha colonies, which leads to easy boundary splitting via multiple slip activation in this alloy. The other mechanisms facilitating lamellar to equiaxed morphological transformations, e.g., termination migration and cylinderization, also start early in the boron-modified alloy due to small alpha colony size, small aspect ratio of the alpha lamellae, and the presence of TiB particles in the microstructure. Both the alloys exhibit weakening of basal fiber (ND||aOE (c) 0001 >) and strengthening of prism fiber (RD||aOE (c) aOE(a)) upon annealing. A close proximity between the orientations of fully globularized primary alpha and secondary alpha phases during alpha -> beta -> alpha transformation has accounted for such a texture modification.

Multispecies coexistence of trees in tropical forests: spatial signals of topographic niche differentiation increase with environmental heterogeneity

Neutral and niche theories give contrasting explanations for the maintenance of tropical tree species diversity. Both have some empirical support, but methods to disentangle their effects have not yet been developed. We applied a statistical measure of spatial structure to data from 14 large tropical forest plots to test a prediction of niche theory that is incompatible with neutral theory: that species in heterogeneous environments should separate out in space according to their niche preferences. We chose plots across a range of topographic heterogeneity, and tested whether pairwise spatial associations among species were more variable in more heterogeneous sites. We found strong support for this prediction, based on a strong positive relationship between variance in the spatial structure of species pairs and topographic heterogeneity across sites. We interpret this pattern as evidence of pervasive niche differentiation, which increases in importance with increasing environmental heterogeneity.