Ground motion prediction equation considering combined dataset of recorded and simulated ground motions

Himalayan region is one of the most active seismic regions in the world and many researchers have highlighted the possibility of great seismic event in the near future due to seismic gap. Seismic hazard analysis and microzonation of highly populated places in the region are mandatory in a regional scale. Region specific Ground Motion Predictive Equation (GMPE) is an important input in the seismic hazard analysis for macro- and micro-zonation studies. Few GMPEs developed in India are based on the recorded data and are applicable for a particular range of magnitudes and distances. This paper focuses on the development of a new GMPE for the Himalayan region considering both the recorded and simulated earthquakes of moment magnitude 5.3-8.7. The Finite Fault simulation model has been used for the ground motion simulation considering region specific seismotectonic parameters from the past earthquakes and source models. Simulated acceleration time histories and response spectra are compared with available records. In the absence of a large number of recorded data, simulations have been performed at unavailable locations by adopting Apparent Stations concept. Earthquakes recorded up to 2007 have been used for the development of new GMPE and earthquakes records after 2007 are used to validate new GMPE. Proposed GMPE matched very well with recorded data and also with other highly ranked GMPEs developed elsewhere and applicable for the region. Comparison of response spectra also have shown good agreement with recorded earthquake data. Quantitative analysis of residuals for the proposed GMPE and region specific GMPEs to predict Nepal-India 2011 earthquake of Mw of 5.7 records values shows that the proposed GMPE predicts Peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for entire distance and period range with lower percent residual when compared to exiting region specific GMPEs. Crown Copyright (C) 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Seismically Induced Landslide Hazard for the State of Karnataka Using GIS Technique

Landslide hazards are a major natural disaster that affects most of the hilly regions around the world. In India, significant damages due to earthquake induced landslides have been reported in the Himalayan region and also in the Western Ghat region. Thus there is a requirement of a quantitative macro-level landslide hazard assessment within the Indian subcontinent in order to identify the regions with high hazard. In the present study, the seismic landslide hazard for the entire state of Karnataka, India was assessed using topographic slope map, derived from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data. The available ASTER DEM data, resampled to 50 m resolution, was used for deriving the slope map of the entire state. Considering linear source model, deterministic seismic hazard analysis was carried out to estimate peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) at bedrock, for each of the grid points having terrain angle 10A degrees and above. The surface level PHA was estimated using nonlinear site amplification technique, considering B-type NEHRP site class. Based on the surface level PHA and slope angle, the seismic landslide hazard for each grid point was estimated in terms of the static factor of safety required to resist landslide, using Newmark's analysis. The analysis was carried out at the district level and the landslide hazard map for all the districts in the Karnataka state was developed first. These were then merged together to obtain a quantitative seismic landslide hazard map of the entire state of Karnataka. Spatial variations in the landslide hazard for all districts as well as for the entire state Karnataka is presented in this paper. The present study shows that the Western Ghat region of the Karnataka state is found to have high landslide hazard where the static factor of safety required to resist landslide is very high.

Recent Seismicity in India and Adjoining Regions

In the present work, historical and instrumental seismicity data of India and its adjoining areas (within 300km from Indian political boundary) are compiled to form the earthquake catalog for the country covering the period from 1505 to 2009. The initial catalogue consisted of about 139563 earthquake events and after declustering,the total number of events obtained was 61315. Region specific earthquake magnitude scaling relations correlating different magnitude scales were achieved and a homogenous earthquake catalogue in moment magnitude (MW) scale was developed for the region. This paper also presents the results of the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to prepare a digitized seismic source map of India. The latest earthquake data were superimposed on the digitized source map to get a final Seismotectonic map of India. The study area has been divided into 1225 grid points (approximately 110km×110km) and the seismicity analysis has been done to get the spatial variation of seismicity parameters ‘a’ and ‘b’ across the country. The homogenized earthquake catalogue with the event details is listed in the website http://civil.iisc.ernet.in/~sreevals/resource.htm

Spatial variation of seismicity parameters across India and adjoining areas

An attempt has been made to quantify the variability in the seismic activity rate across the whole of India and adjoining areas (0–45°N and 60–105°E) using earthquake database compiled from various sources. Both historical and instrumental data were compiled and the complete catalog of Indian earthquakes till 2010 has been prepared. Region-specific earthquake magnitude scaling relations correlating different magnitude scales were achieved to develop a homogenous earthquake catalog for the region in unified moment magnitude scale. The dependent events (75.3%) in the raw catalog have been removed and the effect of aftershocks on the variation of b value has been quantified. The study area was divided into 2,025 grid points (1°91°) and the spatial variation of the seismicity across the region have been analyzed considering all the events within 300 km radius from each grid point. A significant decrease in seismic b value was seen when declustered catalog was used which illustrates that a larger proportion of dependent events in the earthquake catalog are related to lower magnitude events. A list of 203,448 earth- quakes (including aftershocks and foreshocks) occurred in the region covering the period from 250 B.C. to 2010 A.D. with all available details is uploaded in the website http://www.civil.iisc.ernet.in/*sreevals/resource.htm.

A performance-based framework for assessing liquefaction potential based on CPT data

This article describes a new performance-based approach for evaluating the return period of seismic soil liquefaction based on standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) data. The conventional liquefaction evaluation methods consider a single acceleration level and magnitude and these approaches fail to take into account the uncertainty in earthquake loading. The seismic hazard analysis based on the probabilistic method clearly shows that a particular acceleration value is being contributed by different magnitudes with varying probability. In the new method presented in this article, the entire range of ground shaking and the entire range of earthquake magnitude are considered and the liquefaction return period is evaluated based on the SPT and CPT data. This article explains the performance-based methodology for the liquefaction analysis – starting from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the evaluation of seismic hazard and the performance-based method to evaluate the liquefaction return period. A case study has been done for Bangalore, India, based on SPT data and converted CPT values. The comparison of results obtained from both the methods have been presented. In an area of 220 km2 in Bangalore city, the site class was assessed based on large number of borehole data and 58 Multi-channel analysis of surface wave survey. Using the site class and peak acceleration at rock depth from PSHA, the peak ground acceleration at the ground surface was estimated using probabilistic approach. The liquefaction analysis was done based on 450 borehole data obtained in the study area. The results of CPT match well with the results obtained from similar analysis with SPT data.

Slow Slip Acceleration beneath Andaman Islands Triggered by the 11 April 2012 Indian Ocean Earthquakes

The M-w 8.6 and 8.2 strike-slip earthquakes that struck the northeast Indian Ocean on 11 April 2012 resulted in coseismic deformation both at near and distant sites. The slip distribution, deduced using seismic-wave analysis for the orthogonal faults that ruptured during these earthquakes, is sufficient to predict the coseismic displacements at the Global Positioning System (GPS) sites, such as NTUS, PALK, and CUSV, but fall short at four continuous sites in the Andaman Islands region. Slip modeling, for times prior to the events, suggests that the lower portion of the thrust fault beneath the Andaman Islands has been slipping at least at the rate of 40 cm/yr, in response to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman coseismic stress change. Modeling of GPS displacements suggests that the en echelon and orthogonal fault ruptures of the 2012 intraplate oceanic earthquakes could have possibly accelerated the ongoing slow slip, along the lower portion of the thrust fault beneath the islands with a month-long slip of 4-10 cm. The misfit to the coseismic GPS displacements along the Andaman Islands could be improved with a better source model, assuming that no local process contributed to this anomaly.

Dynamic Site Characterization and Correlation of Shear Wave Velocity with Standard Penetration Test `N' Values for the City of Agartala, Tripura State, India

Seismic site characterization is the basic requirement for seismic microzonation and site response studies of an area. Site characterization helps to gauge the average dynamic properties of soil deposits and thus helps to evaluate the surface level response. This paper presents a seismic site characterization of Agartala city, the capital of Tripura state, in the northeast of India. Seismically, Agartala city is situated in the Bengal Basin zone which is classified as a highly active seismic zone, assigned by Indian seismic code BIS-1893, Indian Standard Criteria for Earthquake Resistant Design of Structures, Part-1 General Provisions and Buildings. According to the Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi (2002), it is the highest seismic level (zone-V) in the country. The city is very close to the Sylhet fault (Bangladesh) where two major earthquakes (M (w) > 7) have occurred in the past and affected severely this city and the whole of northeast India. In order to perform site response evaluation, a series of geophysical tests at 27 locations were conducted using the multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) technique, which is an advanced method for obtaining shear wave velocity (V (s)) profiles from in situ measurements. Similarly, standard penetration test (SPT-N) bore log data sets have been obtained from the Urban Development Department, Govt. of Tripura. In the collected data sets, out of 50 bore logs, 27 were selected which are close to the MASW test locations and used for further study. Both the data sets (V (s) profiles with depth and SPT-N bore log profiles) have been used to calculate the average shear wave velocity (V (s)30) and average SPT-N values for the upper 30 m depth of the subsurface soil profiles. These were used for site classification of the study area recommended by the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) manual. The average V (s)30 and SPT-N classified the study area as seismic site class D and E categories, indicating that the city is susceptible to site effects and liquefaction. Further, the different data set combinations between V (s) and SPT-N (corrected and uncorrected) values have been used to develop site-specific correlation equations by statistical regression, as `V (s)' is a function of SPT-N value (corrected and uncorrected), considered with or without depth. However, after considering the data set pairs, a probabilistic approach has also been presented to develop a correlation using a quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot. A comparison has also been made with the well known published correlations (for all soils) available in the literature. The present correlations closely agree with the other equations, but, comparatively, the correlation of shear wave velocity with the variation of depth and uncorrected SPT-N values provides a more suitable predicting model. Also the Q-Q plot agrees with all the other equations. In the absence of in situ measurements, the present correlations could be used to measure V (s) profiles of the study area for site response studies.

Estimates of site response based on spectral ratio between horizontal and vertical components of ambient vibrations in the source zone of 2001 Bhuj earthquake

We investigated the site response characteristics of Kachchh rift basin over the meizoseismal area of the 2001, Mw 7.6, Bhuj (NW India) earthquake using the spectral ratio of the horizontal and vertical components of ambient vibrations. Using the available knowledge on the regional geology of Kachchh and well documented ground responses from the earthquake, we evaluated the H/V curves pattern across sediment filled valleys and uplifted areas generally characterized by weathered sandstones. Although our HIV curves showed a largely fuzzy nature, we found that the hierarchical clustering method was useful for comparing large numbers of response curves and identifying the areas with similar responses. Broad and plateau shaped peaks of a cluster of curves within the valley region suggests the possibility of basin effects within valley. Fundamental resonance frequencies (f(0)) are found in the narrow range of 0.1-2.3 Hz and their spatial distribution demarcated the uplifted regions from the valleys. In contrary, low HIV peak amplitudes (A(0) = 2-4) were observed on the uplifted areas and varying values (2-9) were found within valleys. Compared to the amplification factors, the liquefaction indices (kg) were able to effectively indicate the areas which experienced severe liquefaction. The amplification ranges obtained in the current study were found to be comparable to those obtained from earthquake data for a limited number of seismic stations located on uplifted areas; however the values on the valley region may not reflect their true amplification potential due to basin effects. Our study highlights the practical usefulness as well as limitations of the HIV method to study complex geological settings as Kachchh. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maximum magnitude estimation considering the regional rupture character

The main objective of the paper is to develop a new method to estimate the maximum magnitude (M (max)) considering the regional rupture character. The proposed method has been explained in detail and examined for both intraplate and active regions. Seismotectonic data has been collected for both the regions, and seismic study area (SSA) map was generated for radii of 150, 300, and 500 km. The regional rupture character was established by considering percentage fault rupture (PFR), which is the ratio of subsurface rupture length (RLD) to total fault length (TFL). PFR is used to arrive RLD and is further used for the estimation of maximum magnitude for each seismic source. Maximum magnitude for both the regions was estimated and compared with the existing methods for determining M (max) values. The proposed method gives similar M (max) value irrespective of SSA radius and seismicity. Further seismicity parameters such as magnitude of completeness (M (c) ), ``a'' and ``aEuro parts per thousand b `` parameters and maximum observed magnitude (M (max) (obs) ) were determined for each SSA and used to estimate M (max) by considering all the existing methods. It is observed from the study that existing deterministic and probabilistic M (max) estimation methods are sensitive to SSA radius, M (c) , a and b parameters and M (max) (obs) values. However, M (max) determined from the proposed method is a function of rupture character instead of the seismicity parameters. It was also observed that intraplate region has less PFR when compared to active seismic region.

Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) Dating of Sediments from Himalaya

Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating gives the age of most recent daylight exposure or heating of samples to >400 degrees C or the formation events of authigenic minerals. These correspond to the age of sedimentation and burial, ages of thermal events like contact heating by lava flows and heating during faulting and sand dyke formation, and the formation of a mineral via chemical precipitation. With the first observation of OSL in 1985, this method now occupies centre stage in Quaternary Geochronology. The use of OSL method for sediments from Himalaya began over three decades ago. The method has since provided chronology for a variety of events, such as past glaciation events, formation ages of river terraces, paleo-lacustrine deposits, landslides, floods, seismic events with substantive new insights into timing and style of geological processes. Theoretically, the dating range of method is present to a Million years, and this critically depends on two factors, viz, luminescence properties of mineral and their radiation environments. The general working range using quartz is 200ka, and using feldspars is up to Brunhes Matuyam Boundary. Extensions beyond this limit are currently being explored.

Effects of site stiffness and source to receiver distance on surface wave tests' results

By using six 4.5 Hz geophones, surface wave tests were performed on four different sites by dropping freely a 65 kg mass from a height of 5 m. The receivers were kept far away from the source to eliminate the arrival of body waves. Three different sources to nearest receiver distances (S), namely, 46 m, 56 m and 66 m, were chosen. Dispersion curves were drawn for all the sites. The maximum wavelength (lambda(max)), the maximum depth (d(max)) up to which exploration can be made and the frequency content of the signals depends on the site stiffness and the value of S. A stiffer site yields greater values of lambda(max) and d(max). For stiffer sites, an increase in S leads to an increase in lambda(max). The predominant time durations of the signals increase from stiffer to softer sites. An inverse analysis was also performed based on the stiffness matrix approach in conjunction with the maximum vertical flexibility coefficient of ground surface to establish the governing mode of excitation. For the Site 2, the results from the surface wave tests were found to compare reasonably well with that determined on the basis of cross boreholes seismic tests. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macro-Level Assessment of Seismically Induced Landslide Hazard for the State of Sikkim, India Based On GIS Technique

This paper presents a macro-level seismic landslide hazard assessment for the entire state of Sikkim, India, based on the Newmark's methodology. The slope map of Sikkim was derived from ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM). Seismic shaking in terms of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) at bedrock level was estimated from deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), considering point source model. Peak horizontal acceleration at the surface level for the study area was estimated based on nonlinear site amplification technique, considering B-type NEHRP site class. The PHA at surface was considered to induce driving forces on slopes, thus causing landslides. Knowing the surface level PHA and slope angle, the seismic landslide hazard assessment for each grid point was carried out using Newmark's analysis. The critical static factor of safety required to resist landslide for the PHA (obtained from deterministic analysis) was evaluated and its spatial variation throughout the study area is presented. For any slope in the study area, if the in-situ (available) static factor of safety is greater than the static factor of safety required to resist landslide as predicted in the present study, that slope is considered to be safe.

Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.

Optimal input cross-power spectra in shake table testing of asymmetric structures

The study considers earthquake shake table testing of bending-torsion coupled structures under multi-component stationary random earthquake excitations. An experimental procedure to arrive at the optimal excitation cross-power spectral density (psd) functions which maximize/minimize the steady state variance of a chosen response variable is proposed. These optimal functions are shown to be derivable in terms of a set of system frequency response functions which could be measured experimentally without necessitating an idealized mathematical model to be postulated for the structure under study. The relationship between these optimized cross-psd functions to the most favourable/least favourable angle of incidence of seismic waves on the structure is noted. The optimal functions are also shown to be system dependent, mathematically the sharpest, and correspond to neither fully correlated motions nor independent motions. The proposed experimental procedure is demonstrated through shake table studies on two laboratory scale building frame models.

Stalagmite growth perturbations from the Kumaun Himalaya as potential earthquake recorders

The central part of the Himalaya (Kumaun and Garhwal Provinces of India) is noted for its prolonged seismic quiescence, and therefore, developing a longer-term time series of past earthquakes to understand their recurrence pattern in this segment assumes importance. In addition to direct observations of offsets in stratigraphic exposures or other proxies like paleoliquefaction, deformation preserved within stalagmites (speleothems) in karst system can be analyzed to obtain continuous millennial scale time series of earthquakes. The Central Indian Himalaya hosts natural caves between major active thrusts forming potential storehouses for paleoseismological records. Here, we present results from the limestone caves in the Kumaun Himalaya and discuss the implications of growth perturbations identified in the stalagmites as possible earthquake recorders. This article focuses on three stalagmites from the Dharamjali Cave located in the eastern Kumaun Himalaya, although two other caves, one of them located in the foothills, were also examined for their suitability. The growth anomalies in stalagmites include abrupt tilting or rotation of growth axes, growth termination, and breakage followed by regrowth. The U-Th age data from three specimens allow us to constrain the intervals of growth anomalies, and these were dated at 4273 +/- 410 years BP (2673-1853 BC), 2782 +/- 79 years BP (851-693 BC), 2498 +/- 117 years BP (605-371 BC), 1503 +/- 245 years BP (262-752 AD), 1346 +/- 101 years BP (563-765 AD), and 687 +/- 147 years BP (1176-1470 AD). The dates may correspond to the timings of major/great earthquakes in the region and the youngest event (1176-1470 AD) shows chronological correspondence with either one of the great medieval earthquakes (1050-1250 and 1259-1433 AD) evident from trench excavations across the Himalayan Frontal Thrust.