Methods for Detecting Early Warnings of Critical Transitions in Time Series Illustrated Using Simulated Ecological Data

Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called `early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.

Simple and efficient methods for discrimination of chiral diacids and chiral alpha-methyl amines

The three-component chiral derivatization protocols have been developed for H-1, C-13 and F-19 NMR spectroscopic discrimination of chiral diacids by their coordination and self-assembly with optically active (R)-alpha-methylbenzylamine and 2-formylphenylboronic acid or 3-fluoro-2-formylmethylboronic acid. These protocols yield a mixture of diastereomeric imino-boronate esters which are identified by the well-resolved diastereotopic peaks with significant chemical shift differences ranging up to 0.6 and 2.1 ppm in their corresponding H-1 and F-19 NMR spectra, without any racemization or kinetic resolution, thereby enabling the determination of enantiopurity. A protocol has also been developed for discrimination of chiral alpha-methyl amines, using optically pure trans-1,2-cyclohexanedicarboxylic acid in combination with 2-formylphenylboronic acid or 3-fluoro-2-fluoromethylboronic acid. The proposed strategies have been demonstrated on large number of chiral diacids and chiral alpha-methyl amines.

Comprehensive Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of the Andaman-Nicobar Regions

An updated catalog of earthquakes has been prepared for the Andaman-Nicobar and adjoining regions. The catalog was homogenized to a unified magnitude scale, and declustering of the catalog was performed to remove aftershocks and foreshocks. Eleven regional source zones were identified in the study area to account for local variability in seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters were estimated for each of these source zones, and the seismic hazard evaluation of the Andaman-Nicobar region has been performed using different source models and attenuation relations. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been performed with currently available data and their best possible scientific interpretation using an appropriate instrument such as the logic tree to explicitly account for epistemic uncertainty by considering alternative models (source models, maximum magnitude, and attenuation relationships). The hazard maps for different periods have been produced for horizontal ground motion on the bedrock level.

Probabilistic Shared Cache Management (PriSM)

Effective sharing of the last level cache has a significant influence on the overall performance of a multicore system. We observe that existing solutions control cache occupancy at a coarser granularity, do not scale well to large core counts and in some cases lack the flexibility to support a variety of performance goals. In this paper, we propose Probabilistic Shared Cache Management (PriSM), a framework to manage the cache occupancy of different cores at cache block granularity by controlling their eviction probabilities. The proposed framework requires only simple hardware changes to implement, can scale to larger core count and is flexible enough to support a variety of performance goals. We demonstrate the flexibility of PriSM, by computing the eviction probabilities needed to achieve goals like hit-maximization, fairness and QOS. PriSM-HitMax improves performance by 18.7% over LRU and 11.8% over previously proposed schemes in a sixteen core machine. PriSM-Fairness improves fairness over existing solutions by 23.3% along with a performance improvement of 19.0%. PriSM-QOS successfully achieves the desired QOS targets.

Assessment of seismic hazard and liquefaction potential of Gujarat based on probabilistic approaches

Gujarat is one of the fastest-growing states of India with high industrial activities coming up in major cities of the state. It is indispensable to analyse seismic hazard as the region is considered to be most seismically active in stable continental region of India. The Bhuj earthquake of 2001 has caused extensive damage in terms of causality and economic loss. In the present study, the seismic hazard of Gujarat evaluated using a probabilistic approach with the use of logic tree framework that minimizes the uncertainties in hazard assessment. The peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) values were evaluated for 10 and 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years. Two important geotechnical effects of earthquakes, site amplification and liquefaction, are also evaluated, considering site characterization based on site classes. The liquefaction return period for the entire state of Gujarat is evaluated using a performance-based approach. The maps of PHA and PGA values prepared in this study are very useful for seismic hazard mitigation of the region in future.

Statistical Methods for Accelerated Life Testing with Particular Reference to Resin Impregnated Paper Bushings

Electrical failure of insulation is known to be an extremal random process wherein nominally identical pro-rated specimens of equipment insulation, at constant stress fail at inordinately different times even under laboratory test conditions. In order to be able to estimate the life of power equipment, it is necessary to run long duration ageing experiments under accelerated stresses, to acquire and analyze insulation specific failure data. In the present work, Resin Impregnated Paper (RIP) a relatively new insulation system of choice used in transformer bushings, is taken as an example. The failure data has been processed using proven statistical methods, both graphical and analytical. The physical model governing insulation failure at constant accelerated stress has been assumed to be based on temperature dependent inverse power law model.

Efficient Methods for Robust Classification Under Uncertainty in Kernel Matrices

In this paper we study the problem of designing SVM classifiers when the kernel matrix, K, is affected by uncertainty. Specifically K is modeled as a positive affine combination of given positive semi definite kernels, with the coefficients ranging in a norm-bounded uncertainty set. We treat the problem using the Robust Optimization methodology. This reduces the uncertain SVM problem into a deterministic conic quadratic problem which can be solved in principle by a polynomial time Interior Point (IP) algorithm. However, for large-scale classification problems, IP methods become intractable and one has to resort to first-order gradient type methods. The strategy we use here is to reformulate the robust counterpart of the uncertain SVM problem as a saddle point problem and employ a special gradient scheme which works directly on the convex-concave saddle function. The algorithm is a simplified version of a general scheme due to Juditski and Nemirovski (2011). It achieves an O(1/T-2) reduction of the initial error after T iterations. A comprehensive empirical study on both synthetic data and real-world protein structure data sets show that the proposed formulations achieve the desired robustness, and the saddle point based algorithm outperforms the IP method significantly.

Modified Newton, rank-1 Broyden update and rank-2 BFGS update methods in helicopter trim: A comparative study

Nonlinear equations in mathematical physics and engineering are solved by linearizing the equations and forming various iterative procedures, then executing the numerical simulation. For strongly nonlinear problems, the solution obtained in the iterative process can diverge due to numerical instability. As a result, the application of numerical simulation for strongly nonlinear problems is limited. Helicopter aeroelasticity involves the solution of systems of nonlinear equations in a computationally expensive environment. Reliable solution methods which do not need Jacobian calculation at each iteration are needed for this problem. In this paper, a comparative study is done by incorporating different methods for solving the nonlinear equations in helicopter trim. Three different methods based on calculating the Jacobian at the initial guess are investigated. (C) 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Review of trend detection methods and their application to detect temperature changes in India

Present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of annual, monthly and seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures (t(max), t(min)) in India. Recent trends in annual, monthly, winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon extreme temperatures (t(max), t(min)) have been analyzed for three time slots viz. 1901-2003,1948-2003 and 1970-2003. For this purpose, time series of extreme temperatures of India as a whole and seven homogeneous regions, viz. Western Himalaya (WH), Northwest (NW), Northeast (NE), North Central (NC), East coast (EC), West coast (WC) and Interior Peninsula (IP) are considered. Rigorous trend detection analysis has been exercised using variety of non-parametric methods which consider the effect of serial correlation during analysis. During the last three decades minimum temperature trend is present in All India as well as in all temperature homogeneous regions of India either at annual or at any seasonal level (winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon). Results agree with the earlier observation that the trend in minimum temperature is significant in the last three decades over India (Kothawale et al., 2010). Sequential MK test reveals that most of the trend both in maximum and minimum temperature began after 1970 either in annual or seasonal levels. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the Relationships Among Design Methods, Design Activities, and Creativity

This paper presents an experimental study that was conducted to compare the results obtained from using different design methods (brainstorming (BR), functional analysis (FA), and SCAMPER) in design processes. The objectives of this work are twofold. The first was to determine whether there are any differences in the length of time devoted to the different types of activities that are carried out in the design process, depending on the method that is employed; in other words, whether the design methods that are used make a difference in the profile of time spent across the design activities. The second objective was to analyze whether there is any kind of relationship between the time spent on design process activities and the degree of creativity in the solutions that are obtained. Creativity evaluation has been done by means of the degree of novelty and the level of resolution of the designed solutions using creative product semantic scale (CPSS) questionnaire. The results show that there are significant differences between the amounts of time devoted to activities related to understanding the problem and the typology of the design method, intuitive or logical, that are used. While the amount of time spent on analyzing the problem is very small in intuitive methods, such as brainstorming and SCAMPER (around 8-9% of the time), with logical methods like functional analysis practically half the time is devoted to analyzing the problem. Also, it has been found that the amount of time spent in each design phase has an influence on the results in terms of creativity, but results are not enough strong to define in which measure are they affected. This paper offers new data and results on the distinct benefits to be obtained from applying design methods. DOI: 10.1115/1.4007362]

On the dynamic contact angle in simulation of impinging droplets with sharp interface methods

Effects of dynamic contact angle models on the flow dynamics of an impinging droplet in sharp interface simulations are presented in this article. In the considered finite element scheme, the free surface is tracked using the arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian approach. The contact angle is incorporated into the model by replacing the curvature with the Laplace-Beltrami operator and integration by parts. Further, the Navier-slip with friction boundary condition is used to avoid stress singularities at the contact line. Our study demonstrates that the contact angle models have almost no influence on the flow dynamics of the non-wetting droplets. In computations of the wetting and partially wetting droplets, different contact angle models induce different flow dynamics, especially during recoiling. It is shown that a large value for the slip number has to be used in computations of the wetting and partially wetting droplets in order to reduce the effects of the contact angle models. Among all models, the equilibrium model is simple and easy to implement. Further, the equilibrium model also incorporates the contact angle hysteresis. Thus, the equilibrium contact angle model is preferred in sharp interface numerical schemes.

Automatic road extraction using high resolution satellite images based on Level Set and Mean Shift methods

Analysis of high resolution satellite images has been an important research topic for urban analysis. One of the important features of urban areas in urban analysis is the automatic road network extraction. Two approaches for road extraction based on Level Set and Mean Shift methods are proposed. From an original image it is difficult and computationally expensive to extract roads due to presences of other road-like features with straight edges. The image is preprocessed to improve the tolerance by reducing the noise (the buildings, parking lots, vegetation regions and other open spaces) and roads are first extracted as elongated regions, nonlinear noise segments are removed using a median filter (based on the fact that road networks constitute large number of small linear structures). Then road extraction is performed using Level Set and Mean Shift method. Finally the accuracy for the road extracted images is evaluated based on quality measures. The 1m resolution IKONOS data has been used for the experiment.

Method for Seismic Microzonation with Geotechnical Aspects

This study presents an overview of seismic microzonation and existing methodologies with a newly proposed methodology covering all aspects. Earlier seismic microzonation methods focused on parameters that affect the structure or foundation related problems. But seismic microzonation has generally been recognized as an important component of urban planning and disaster management. So seismic microzonation should evaluate all possible hazards due to earthquake and represent the same by spatial distribution. This paper presents a new methodology for seismic microzonation which has been generated based on location of study area and possible associated hazards. This new method consists of seven important steps with defined output for each step and these steps are linked with each other. Addressing one step and respective result may not be seismic microzonation, which is practiced widely. This paper also presents importance of geotechnical aspects in seismic microzonation and how geotechnical aspects affect the final map. For the case study, seismic hazard values at rock level are estimated considering the seismotectonic parameters of the region using deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Surface level hazard values are estimated considering site specific study and local site effects based on site classification/characterization. The liquefaction hazard is estimated using standard penetration test data. These hazard parameters are integrated in Geographical Information System (GIS) using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and used to estimate hazard index. Hazard index is arrived by following a multi-criteria evaluation technique - AHP, in which each theme and features have been assigned weights and then ranked respectively according to a consensus opinion about their relative significance to the seismic hazard. The hazard values are integrated through spatial union to obtain the deterministic microzonation map and probabilistic microzonation map for a specific return period. Seismological parameters are widely used for microzonation rather than geotechnical parameters. But studies show that the hazard index values are based on site specific geotechnical parameters.

Determination of size-independent specific fracture energy of concrete mixes by two methods

The RILEM work-of-fracture method for measuring the specific fracture energy of concrete from notched three-point bend specimens is still the most common method used throughout the world, despite the fact that the specific fracture energy so measured is known to vary with the size and shape of the test specimen. The reasons for this variation have also been known for nearly two decades, and two methods have been proposed in the literature to correct the measured size-dependent specific fracture energy (G(f)) in order to obtain a size-independent value (G(F)). It has also been proved recently, on the basis of a limited set of results on a single concrete mix with a compressive strength of 37 MPa, that when the size-dependent G(f) measured by the RILEM method is corrected following either of these two methods, the resulting specific fracture energy G(F) is very nearly the same and independent of the size of the specimen. In this paper, we will provide further evidence in support of this important conclusion using extensive independent test results of three different concrete mixes ranging in compressive strength from 57 to 122 MPa. (c) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.