Modeling non-stationarity in intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India

Significant changes are reported in extreme rainfall characteristics over India in recent studies though there are disagreements on the spatial uniformity and causes of trends. Based on recent theoretical advancements in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), we analyze changes in extreme rainfall characteristics over India using a high-resolution daily gridded (1 degrees latitude x 1 degrees longitude) dataset. Intensity, duration and frequency of excess rain over a high threshold in the summer monsoon season are modeled by non-stationary distributions whose parameters vary with physical covariates like the El-Nino Southern Oscillation index (ENSO-index) which is an indicator of large-scale natural variability, global average temperature which is an indicator of human-induced global warming and local mean temperatures which possibly indicate more localized changes. Each non-stationary model considers one physical covariate and the best chosen statistical model at each rainfall grid gives the most significant physical driver for each extreme rainfall characteristic at that grid. Intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall exhibit non-stationarity due to different drivers and no spatially uniform pattern is observed in the changes in them across the country. At most of the locations, duration of extreme rainfall spells is found to be stationary, while non-stationary associations between intensity and frequency and local changes in temperature are detected at a large number of locations. This study presents the first application of nonstationary statistical modeling of intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India. The developed models are further used for rainfall frequency analysis to show changes in the 100-year extreme rainfall event. Our findings indicate the varying nature of each extreme rainfall characteristic and their drivers and emphasize the necessity of a comprehensive framework to assess resulting risks of precipitation induced flooding. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance evaluation of AR4 Climate Models in simulating daily precipitation over the Indian region using skill scores

The ability of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's fourth assessment report (IPCC AR4) for the 20th century climate (20C3M scenario) to simulate the daily precipitation over the Indian region is explored. The skill is evaluated on a 2.5A degrees x 2.5A degrees grid square compared with the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) gridded dataset, and every GCM is ranked for each of these grids based on its skill score. Skill scores (SSs) are estimated from the probability density functions (PDFs) obtained from observed IMD datasets and GCM simulations. The methodology takes into account (high) extreme precipitation events simulated by GCMs. The results are analyzed and presented for three categories and six zones. The three categories are the monsoon season (JJASO - June to October), non-monsoon season (JFMAMND - January to May, November, December) and for the entire year (''Annual''). The six precipitation zones are peninsular, west central, northwest, northeast, central northeast India, and the hilly region. Sensitivity analysis was performed for three spatial scales, 2.5A degrees grid square, zones, and all of India, in the three categories. The models were ranked based on the SS. The category JFMAMND had a higher SS than the JJASO category. The northwest zone had higher SSs, whereas the peninsular and hilly regions had lower SS. No single GCM can be identified as the best for all categories and zones. Some models consistently outperformed the model ensemble, and one model had particularly poor performance. Results show that most models underestimated the daily precipitation rates in the 0-1 mm/day range and overestimated it in the 1-15 mm/day range.

Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: Remote versus local effects

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

Structural studies on Mycobacterium tuberculosis RecA: Molecular plasticity and interspecies variability

Structures of crystals of Mycobacterium tuberculosis RecA, grown and analysed under different conditions, provide insights into hitherto underappreciated details of molecular structure and plasticity. In particular, they yield information on the invariant and variable features of the geometry of the P-loop, whose binding to ATP is central for all the biochemical activities of RecA. The strengths of interaction of the ligands with the P-loop reveal significant differences. This in turn affects the magnitude of the motion of the `switch' residue, Gln195 in M. tuberculosis RecA, which triggers the transmission of ATP-mediated allosteric information to the DNA binding region. M. tuberculosis RecA is substantially rigid compared with its counterparts from M smegmatis and E. coli, which exhibit concerted internal molecular mobility. The interspecies variability in the plasticity of the two mycobacterial proteins is particularly surprising as they have similar sequence and 3D structure. Details of the interactions of ligands with the protein, characterized in the structures reported here, could be useful for design of inhibitors against M. tuberculosis RecA.

On the variability in fracture toughness of `ductile' bulk metallic glasses

The mode I fracture toughness, K-Ic, of ductile bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) exhibits a high degree of specimen-to-specimen variability. By conducting fracture experiments in modes I and II, we demonstrate that the observed high variability in mode I, vis-a-vis mode II, is a result of highly variable propensity for the conversion of shear bands into cracks in mode I whereas in mode II, crack growth direction is fixed. Thus, the measured variability in K-Ic is intrinsic to the nature of BMGs. (C) 2015 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Microstructure and Crystallographic Texture Evolution During the Friction-Stir Processing of a Precipitation-Hardenable Aluminum Alloy

Friction-stir processing (FSP) has been proven as a successful method for the grain refinement of high-strength aluminum alloys. The most important attributes of this process are the fine-grain microstructure and characteristic texture, which impart suitable properties in the as-processed material. In the current work, FSP of the precipitation-hardenable aluminum alloy 2219 has been carried out and the consequent evolution of microstructure and texture has been studied. The as-processed materials were characterized using electron back-scattered diffraction, x-ray diffraction, and electron probe microanalysis. Onion-ring formation was observed in the nugget zone, which has been found to be related to the precipitation response and crystallographic texture of the alloy. Texture development in the alloy has been attributed to the combined effect of shear deformation and dynamic recrystallization. The texture was found heterogeneous even within the nugget zone. A microtexture analysis revealed the dominance of shear texture components, with C component at the top of nugget zone and the B and A(2)* components in the middle and bottom. The bulk texture measurement in the nugget zone revealed a dominant C component. The development of a weaker texture along with the presence of some large particles in the nugget zone indicates particle-stimulated nucleation as the dominant nucleation mechanism during FSP. Grain growth follows the Burke and Turnbull mechanism and geometrical coalescence.

Probable maximum precipitation estimation for catchments in Mahanadi river basin

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is a theoretical concept that is widely used by hydrologists to arrive at estimates for probable maximum flood (PMF) that find use in planning, design and risk assessment of high-hazard hydrological structures such as flood control dams upstream of populated areas. The PMP represents the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is meteorologically possible for a watershed or an area at a particular time of year, with no allowance made for long-term climatic trends. Various methods are in use for estimation of PMP over a target location corresponding to different durations. Moisture maximization method and Hershfield method are two widely used methods. The former method maximizes the observed storms assuming that the atmospheric moisture would rise up to a very high value estimated based on the maximum daily dew point temperature. On the other hand, the latter method is a statistical method based on a general frequency equation given by Chow. The present study provides one-day PMP estimates and PMP maps for Mahanadi river basin based on the aforementioned methods. There is a need for such estimates and maps, as the river basin is prone to frequent floods. Utility of the constructed PMP maps in computing PMP for various catchments in the river basin is demonstrated. The PMP estimates can eventually be used to arrive at PMF estimates for those catchments. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Decreasing intensity of monsoon low-frequency intraseasonal variability over India

Understanding the changing nature of the intraseasonal oscillatory (ISO) modes of Indian summer monsoon manifested by active and break phase, and their association with extreme rainfall events are necessary for probabilistic estimation of flood-related risks in a warming climate. Here, using ground-based observed rainfall, we define an index to measure the strength of monsoon ISOs and show that the relative strength of the northward-propagating low-frequency ISO (20-60 days) modes have had a significant decreasing trend during the past six decades, possibly attributed to the weakening of large-scale circulation in the region during monsoon season. This reduction is compensated by a gain in synoptic-scale (3-9 days) variability. The decrease in low-frequency ISO variability is associated with a significant decreasing trend in the percentage of extreme events during the active phase of the monsoon. However, this decrease is balanced by significant increasing trends in the percentage of extreme events in the break and transition phases. We also find a significant rise in the occurrence of extremes during early and late monsoon months, mainly over eastern coastal regions. Our study highlights the redistribution of rainfall intensity among periodic (low-frequency) and non-periodic (extreme) modes in a changing climate scenario.

Investigation of orographic features influencing spatial distribution of rainfall over the Western Ghats of India using satellite data

Using remotely sensed Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 rainfall and topographic data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the impact of oroghraphical aspects such as topography, spatial variability of elevation and altitude of apexes are examined to investigate capacious summer monsoon rainfall over the Western Ghats (WG) of India. TRMM 3B42 v7 rainfall data is validated with Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data at 0.5 degrees resolution over the WG. The analysis of spatial pattern of monsoon rainfall with orography of the WG ascertains that the grade of orographic precipitation depends mainly on topography of the mountain barrier followed by steepness of windward side slope and altitude of the mountain. Longer and broader, i.e. cascaded topography, elevated summits and gradually increasing slopes impel the enhancement in precipitation. Comparing topography of various states of the WG, it has been observed that windward side of Karnataka receives intense rainfall in the WG during summer monsoon. It has been observed that the rainfall is enhanced before the peak of the mountain and confined up to the height about 800m over the WG. In addition to this, the spatial distribution of heavy and very heavy rainfall events in the last 14 years has also been explored. Heavy and very heavy rain events on this hilly terrain are categorized with a threshold of precipitation (R) in the range 150>R>120mmday(-1) and exceeding 150mmday(-1) using probability distribution of TRMM 3B42 v7 rainfall. The areas which are prone to heavy precipitation are identified. The study would help policy makers to manage the hazard scenario and, to improve weather predictions on mountainous terrain of the WG.

Evaluation of Precipitation Retrievals From Orbital Data Products of TRMM Over a Subtropical Basin in India

The spatial error structure of daily precipitation derived from the latest version 7 (v7) tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) level 2 data products are studied through comparison with the Asian precipitation highly resolved observational data integration toward evaluation of the water resources (APHRODITE) data over a subtropical region of the Indian subcontinent for the seasonal rainfall over 6 years from June 2002 to September 2007. The data products examined include v7 data from the TRMM radiometer Microwave Imager (TMI) and radar precipitation radar (PR), namely, 2A12, 2A25, and 2B31 (combined data from PR and TMI). The spatial distribution of uncertainty from these data products were quantified based on performance metrics derived from the contingency table. For the seasonal daily precipitation over a subtropical basin in India, the data product of 2A12 showed greater skill in detecting and quantifying the volume of rainfall when compared with the 2A25 and 2B31 data products. Error characterization using various error models revealed that random errors from multiplicative error models were homoscedastic and that they better represented rainfall estimates from 2A12 algorithm. Error decomposition techniques performed to disentangle systematic and random errors verify that the multiplicative error model representing rainfall from 2A12 algorithm successfully estimated a greater percentage of systematic error than 2A25 or 2B31 algorithms. Results verify that although the radiometer derived 2A12 rainfall data is known to suffer from many sources of uncertainties, spatial analysis over the case study region of India testifies that the 2A12 rainfall estimates are in a very good agreement with the reference estimates for the data period considered.

Coupled Mechanisms of Precipitation and Atomization in Burning Nanofluid Fuel Droplets

Understanding the combustion characteristics of fuel droplets laden with energetic nanoparticles (NP) is pivotal for lowering ignition delay, reducing pollutant emissions and increasing the combustion efficiency in next generation combustors. In this study, first we elucidate the feedback coupling between two key interacting mechanisms, namely, secondary atomization and particle agglomeration; that govern the effective mass fraction of NPs within the droplet. Second, we show how the initial NP concentration modulates their relative dominance leading to a masterslave configuration. Secondary atomization of novel nanofuels is a crucial process since it enables an effective transport of dispersed NPs to the flame (a pre-requisite condition for NPs to burn). Contrarily, NP agglomeration at the droplet surface leads to shell formation thereby retaining NPs inside the droplet. In particular, we show that at dense concentrations shell formation (master process) dominates over secondary atomization (slave) while at dilute particle loading it is the high frequency bubble ejections (master) that disrupt shell formation (slave) through its rupture and continuous outflux of NPs. This results in distinct combustion residues at dilute and dense concentrations, thereby providing a method of manufacturing flame synthesized microstructures with distinct morphologies.

On the detection of human influence in extreme precipitation over India

Climate change is expected to influence extreme precipitation which in turn might affect risks of pluvial flooding. Recent studies on extreme rainfall over India vary in their definition of extremes, scales of analyses and conclusions about nature of changes in such extremes. Fingerprint-based detection and attribution (D&A) offer a formal way of investigating the presence of anthropogenic signals in hydroclimatic observations. There have been recent efforts to quantify human effects in the components of the hydrologic cycle at large scales, including precipitation extremes. This study conducts a D&A analysis on precipitation extremes over India, considering both univariate and multivariate fingerprints, using a standardized probability-based index (SPI) from annual maximum one-day (RX1D) and five-day accumulated (RX5D) rainfall. The pattern-correlation based fingerprint method is used for the D&A analysis. Transformation of annual extreme values to SPI and subsequent interpolation to coarser grids are carried out to facilitate comparison between observations and model simulations. Our results show that in spite of employing these methods to address scale and physical processes mismatch between observed and model simulated extremes, attributing changes in regional extreme precipitation to anthropogenic climate change is difficult. At very high (95%) confidence, no signals are detected for RX1D, while for the RX5D and multivariate cases only the anthropogenic (ANT) signal is detected, though the fingerprints are in general found to be noisy. The findings indicate that model simulations may underestimate regional climate system responses to increasing human forcings for extremes, and though anthropogenic factors may have a role to play in causing changes in extreme precipitation, their detection is difficult at regional scales and not statistically significant. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Room temperature ferromagnetism and white light emissive CdS:Cr nanoparticles synthesized by chemical co-precipitation method

Undoped and Cr (3% and 5%) doped CdS nanoparticles were synthesized by chemical co-precipitation method. The synthesized nanocrystalline particles are characterized by energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDAX), scanning electron microscope (SEM), X-ray Diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS), photoluminescence (PL), Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR), vibrating sample magnetometer (VSM) and Raman spectroscopy. XRD studies indicate that Cr doping in host CdS result a structural change from Cubic phase to mixed (cubic + hexagonal) phase. Due to quantum confinement effect, widening of the band gap is observed for undoped and Cr doped CdS nanoparticles compared to bulk CdS. The average particle size calculated from band gap values is in good agreement with the TEM study calculation and it is around 4-5 nm. A strong violet emission band consisting of two emission peaks is observed for undoped CdS nanoparticles, whereas for CdS:Cr nanoparticles, a broad emission band ranging from 420 nm to 730 nm with a maximum at similar to 587 nm is observed. The broad emission band is due to the overlapped emissions from variety of defects. EPR spectra of CdS:Cr samples reveal resonance signal at g = 2.143 corresponding to interacting Cr3+ ions. VSM studies indicate that the diamagnetic CdS nanoparticles are transform to ferromagnetic for 3% Cr3+ doping and the ferromagnetic nature is diminished with increasing the doping concentration to 5%. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Delineation of homogeneous hydrometeorological regions using wavelet-based global fuzzy cluster analysis

Identification of homogeneous hydrometeorological regions (HMRs) is necessary for various applications. Such regions are delineated by various approaches considering rainfall and temperature as two key variables. In conventional approaches, formation of regions is based on principal components (PCs)/statistics/indices determined from time series of the key variables at monthly and seasonal scales. An issue with use of PCs for regionalization is that they have to be extracted from contemporaneous records of hydrometeorological variables. Therefore, delineated regions may not be effective when the available records are limited over contemporaneous time period. A drawback associated with the use of statistics/indices is that they do not provide effective representation of the key variables when the records exhibit non-stationarity. Consequently, the resulting regions may not be effective for the desired purpose. To address these issues, a new approach is proposed in this article. The approach considers information extracted from wavelet transformations of the observed multivariate hydrometeorological time series as the basis for regionalization by global fuzzy c-means clustering procedure. The approach can account for dynamic variability in the time series and its non-stationarity (if any). Effectiveness of the proposed approach in forming HMRs is demonstrated by application to India, as there are no prior attempts to form such regions over the country. Drought severity-area-frequency (SAF) curves are constructed corresponding to each of the newly formed regions for the use in regional drought analysis, by considering standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as the drought indicator.