Hydrography and circulation in the western Bay of Bengal during the northeast monsoon

The Bay of Bengal, a semienclosed tropical basin that comes under the influence of monsoonal wind and freshwater influx, is distinguished by a strongly stratified surface layer and a seasonally reversing circulation. We discuss characteristics of these features in the western Bay during the northeast monsoon, when the East India Coastal Current (EICC) flows southward, using hydrographic data collected during December 1991. Vertical profiles show uniform temperature and salinity in a homogeneous surface layer, on average, 25 m deep but shallower northward and coastward. The halocline, immediately below, is approximately 50 m thick; salinity changes by approximately 3 parts per thousand. About two thirds of the profiles show temperature inversions in this layer. Salinity below the halocline hardly changes, and stratification is predominantly due to temperature variation, The halocline is noticeably better developed and the surface homogeneous layer is thinner in a low-salinity plume that hugs the coastline along the entire east coast of India, The plume is, on average, 50 km wide, with isohalines sloping down toward the coast. Most prominent in the geostrophic velocity field is the equatorward EICC. Its transport north of about 13 degrees N, computed with 1000 dbar as the level of reference, varies between 2.6 and 7.1 x 10(6) m(3) s(-1); just south of this latitude, a northwestward flow from offshore recurves and merges with the coastal current. At the southern end of the region surveyed, the transport is 7.7 x 10(6) m(3) s(-1). Recent model studies lead us to conclude that the EICC during the northeast monsoon is driven by winds along the east coast of India and Ekman pumping in the interior bay. In the south, Ekman pumping over the southwestern bay is responsible for the northwestward flow that merges with the EICC.

Origin of a trend in ECMWF wind analysis and its objective removal

The suitability of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational wind analysis for the period 1980-1991 for studying interannual variability is examined. The changes in the model and the analysis procedure are shown to give rise to a systematic and significant trend in the large scale circulation features. A new method of removing the systematic errors at all levels is presented using multivariate EOF analysis. Objectively detrended analysis of the three-dimensional wind field agrees well with independent Florida State University (FSU) wind analysis at the surface. It is shown that the interannual variations in the detrended surface analysis agree well in amplitude as well as spatial patterns with those of the FSU analysis. Therefore, the detrended analyses at other levels as well are expected to be useful for studies of variability and predictability at interannual time scales. It is demonstrated that this trend in the wind field is due to the shift in the climatologies from the period 1980-1985 to the period 1986-1991.

The mean and turbulence structure simulation of the monsoon trough boundary layer using a one-dimensional model with e-l and e-epsilon closures

An attempt has been made here to study the sensitivity of the mean and the turbulence structure of the monsoon trough boundary layer to the choice of the constants in the dissipation equation for two stations Delhi and Calcutta, using one-dimensional atmospheric boundary layer model with e-epsilon turbulence closure. An analytical discussion of the problems associated with the constants of the dissipation equation is presented. It is shown here that the choice of the constants in the dissipation equation is quite crucial and the turbulence structure is very sensitive to these constants. The modification of the dissipation equation adopted by earlier studies, that is, approximating the Tke generation (due to shear and buoyancy production) in the epsilon-equation by max (shear production, shear + buoyancy production), can be avoided by a suitable choice of the constants suggested here. The observed turbulence structure is better simulated with these constants. The turbulence structure simulation with the constants recommended by Aupoix et al (1989) (which are interactive in time) for the monsoon region is shown to be qualitatively similar to the simulation obtained with the constants suggested here, thus implying that no universal constants exist to regulate dissipation rate. Simulations of the mean structure show little sensitivity to the type of the closure parameterization between e-l and e-epsilon closures. However the turbulence structure simulation with e-epsilon closure is far better compared to the e-l model simulations. The model simulations of temperature profiles compare quite well with the observations whenever the boundary layer is well mixed (neutral) or unstable. However the models are not able to simulate the nocturnal boundary layer (stable) temperature profiles. Moisture profiles are simulated reasonably better. With one-dimensional models, capturing observed wind variations is not up to the mark.

Tropical deep convection, convective available potential energy and sea surface temperature

The convective available potential energy (CAFE) based on monthly mean sounding has been shown to be relevant to deep convection in the tropics. The variation of CAFE with SST has been found to be similar to the variation of the frequency of deep convection at one station each in the tropical Atlantic and W. Pacific oceans. This suggests a strong link between the frequency of tropical convection and CAFE. It has been shown that CAFE so derived can be interpreted as the work potential of the atmosphere above the boundary layer with ascent in the convective region and subsidence in the surrounding cloud-free region.

Estimation of surface temperature from MONTBLEX data

It is observed that the daily mean temperature of the soil is linear with depth and the variation of the temperature is sinusoidal with a period of a day. Based on these observations the one-dimensional heat conduction equation for the soil can be solved which gives the amplitude and phase variation of the temperature wave with depth. Given the temperature data at three levels below the surface, the amplitude and phase variation and hence the surface temperature variation over the day are estimated. The daily mean temperature of the surface is estimated from linear extrapolation of the daily means at the three levels below the surface. Estimated values of soil thermal diffusivity show a subtantial change after sudden and heavy rains.

Forecasting rain for groundnut farmers�how good is good enough

: We illustrate how climatological information about adverse weather events and meteorological forecasts (when available) can be used to decide between alternative strategies so as to maximize the long-term average returns for rainfed groundnut in semi-arid parts of Karnataka, We show that until the skill of the forecast, i.e. probability of an adverse event occurring when it is forecast, is above a certain threshold, the forecast has no impact on the optimum strategy, This threshold is determined by the loss in yield due to the adverse weather event and the cost of the mitigatory measures, For the specific case of groundnut, it is found that while for combating some pests/diseases, climatological information is adequate, for others a forecast of sufficient skill would have a significant impact on the productivity.

Simulation of ENSO-Related Surface Winds in the Tropical Pacific by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Forced by Observed Sea Surface Temperatures

The authors present the simulation of the tropical Pacific surface wind variability by a low-resolution (R15 horizontal resolution and 18 vertical levels) version of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Maryland, general circulation model (GCM) when forced by observed global sea surface temperature. The authors have examined the monthly mean surface winds acid precipitation simulated by the model that was integrated from January 1979 to March 1992. Analyses of the climatological annual cycle and interannual variability over the Pacific are presented. The annual means of the simulated zonal and meridional winds agree well with observations. The only appreciable difference is in the region of strong trade winds where the simulated zonal winds are about 15%-20% weaker than observed, The amplitude of the annual harmonics are weaker than observed over the intertropical convergence zone and the South Pacific convergence zone regions. The amplitudes of the interannual variation of the simulated zonal and meridional winds are close to those of the observed variation. The first few dominant empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) of the simulated, as well as the observed, monthly mean winds are found to contain a targe amount of high-frequency intraseasonal variations, While the statistical properties of the high-frequency modes, such as their amplitude and geographical locations, agree with observations, their detailed time evolution does not. When the data are subjected to a 5-month running-mean filter, the first two dominant EOFs of the simulated winds representing the low-frequency EI Nino-Southern Oscillation fluctuations compare quite well with observations. However, the location of the center of the westerly anomalies associated with the warm episodes is simulated about 15 degrees west of the observed locations. The model simulates well the progress of the westerly anomalies toward the eastern Pacific during the evolution of a warm event. The simulated equatorial wind anomalies are comparable in magnitude to the observed anomalies. An intercomparison of the simulation of the interannual variability by a few other GCMs with comparable resolution is also presented. The success in simulation of the large-scale low-frequency part of the tropical surface winds by the atmospheric GCM seems to be related to the model's ability to simulate the large-scale low-frequency part of the precipitation. Good correspondence between the simulated precipitation and the highly reflective cloud anomalies is seen in the first two EOFs of the 5-month running means. Moreover, the strong correlation found between the simulated precipitation and the simulated winds in the first two principal components indicates the primary role of model precipitation in driving the surface winds. The surface winds simulated by a linear model forced by the GCM-simulated precipitation show good resemblance to the GCM-simulated winds in the equatorial region. This result supports the recent findings that the large-scale part of the tropical surface winds is primarily linear.

Turbulent heat flux variation over the Monsoon-Trough region during MONTBLEX-90

Tower data collected during the Monsoon-Trough Boundary Layer Experiment (MONTBLEX-90) have been analysed to understand the observed structure of the surface layer over an arid region (Jodhpur) and a moist region (Kharagpur) during active and weak phases of the 1990 southwest monsoon. Turbulent heat and momentum fluxes are estimated by the eddy correlation method using sonic data. The turbulent momentum flux at both Jodhpur and Kharagpur was larger when the winds were stronger, reaching a maximum of the order of 0.5 N m(-2) on 5 and 6 August when a low pressure system was located over the region. The heat flux at Jodhpur is high during weak monsoon days, the maximum being 450 W m(-2), whereas during active days the flux never exceeds 200 W m(-2). At Kharagpur, the flux does not vary significantly between active and weak monsoon days, the maximum in either phase being 160 W m(-2) At Jodhpur, there is significant contrast in the near-surface air temperature, being higher during weak monsoon days as compared to active days. Cloud cover did not vary significantly in both the regions. The turbulent heat flux variation at both the sites appears to be correlated mainly with soil mixture, and less sensitive to cloud cover.

Genesis of the monsoon trough boundary layer experiment (MONTBLEX)

This paper sets out the motivation for carrying out an observational experiment on the atmospheric boundary layer along the monsoon trough, in the light of earlier studies of the atmospheric boundary layer in India and elsewhere, and the significant role that the trough has been shown to play as a key semi-permanent feature of the southwest monsoon. The scientific objectives of the experiment are set out, and its planning and execution are touched upon. Some of the gains resulting from the experiment are mentioned, and lessons for the future about the conduct of such programmes are drawn.

Lyapunov exponents and predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system

It has recently been proposed that the broad spectrum of interannual variability in the tropics with a peak around four years results from an interaction between the linear low-frequency oscillatory mode of the coupled system and the nonlinear higher-frequency modes of the system. In this study we determine the Lyapunov exponents of the conceptual model consisting of a nonlinear low-order model coupled to a linear oscillator for various values of the coupling constants.

MONTBLEX tower observations: Instrumentation, data acquisition and data quality

Tower platforms, with instrumentation at six levels above the surface to a height of 30 m, were used to record various atmospheric parameters in the surface layer. Sensors for measuring both mean and fluctuating quantities were used, with the majority of them indigenously built. Soil temperature sensors up to a depth of 30 cm from the surface were among the variables connected to the mean data logger. A PC-based data acquisition system built at the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IISc, was used to acquire the data from fast response sensors. This paper reports the various components of a typical MONTBLEX tower observatory and describes the actual experiments carried out in the surface layer at four sites over the monsoon trough region as a part of the MONTBLEX programme. It also describes and discusses several checks made on randomly selected tower data-sets acquired during the experiment. Checks made include visual inspection of time traces from various sensors, comparative plots of sensors measuring the same variable, wind and temperature profile plots calculation of roughness lengths, statistical and stability parameters, diurnal variation of stability parameters, and plots of probability density and energy spectrum for the different sensors. Results from these checks are found to be very encouraging and reveal the potential for further detailed analysis to understand more about surface layer characteristics.

Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: External conditions versus internal feedbacks

The potential predictability of the Indian summer monsoon due to slowly varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is examined. Factors responsible for limiting the predictability are also investigated. Three multiyear simulations with the R30 version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are carried out for this purpose, The mean monsoon simulated by this model is realistic including the mean summer precipitation over the Indian continent. The interannual variability of the large-scale component of the monsoon such as the "monsoon shear index" and its teleconnection with Pacific SST is well simulated by the model in a 15-yr integration with observed SST as boundary condition. On regional scales, the skill in simulating the interannual variability of precipitation over the Indian continent by the model is rather modest and its simultaneous correlation with eastern Pacific SST is negative but poor as observed. The poor predictability of precipitation over the Indian region in the model is related to the fact that contribution to the interannual variability over this region due to slow SST variations [El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related] is comparable to those due to regional-scale fluctuations unrelated to ENSO SST. The physical mechanism through which ENSO SST tend to produce reduction in precipitation over the Indian continent is also elucidated. A measure of internal variability of the model summer monsoon is obtained from a 20-yr integration of the same model with fixed annual cycle SST as boundary conditions but with predicted soil moisture and snow cover. A comparison of summer monsoon indexes between this run and the observed SST run shows that the internal oscillations can account for a large fraction of the simulated monsoon variability. The regional-scale oscillations in the observed SST run seems to arise from these internal oscillations. It is discovered that most of the interannual internal variability is due to an internal quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the model atmosphere. Such a QBO is also found in the author's third 18-yr simulation in which fixed annual cycle of SST as well as soil moisture and snow cover are prescribed. This shows that the model QBO is not due to land-surface-atmosphere interaction. It is proposed that the model QBO arises due to an interaction between nonlinear intraseasonal oscillations and the annual cycle. Spatial structure of the QBO and its role in limiting the predictability of the Indian summer monsoon is discussed.

Airborne measurements of aerosol scattering properties above the MABL over Bay of Bengal during W_ICARB - characteristics and spatial gradients

Realizing the importance of aerosol characterization and addressing its spatio-temporal heterogeneities over Bay of Bengal (BoB), campaign mode observations of aerosol parameters were carried out using simultaneous cruise, aircraft and land-based measurements during the Winter Integrated Campaign for Aerosols gases and Radiation Budget (W_ICARB). Under this, airborne measurements of total and hemispheric backscatter coefficients were made over several regions of coastal India and eastern BoB using a three wavelength integrating nephelometer. The measurements include high resolution multi-level (ML) sorties for altitude profiles and bi-level (BL) sorties for spatial gradients within and above the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) over BoB. The vertical profiles of the scattering coefficients are investigated in light of the information on the vertical structure of the atmospheric stability, which was derived from the collocated GPS (Global Positioning System) aided radiosonde ascents. In general, the altitude profiles revealed that the scattering coefficient remained steady in the convectively well-mixed regions and dropped off above the MABL. This decrease was quite rapid off the Indian mainland, while it was more gradual in the eastern BoB. Investigation on horizontal gradients revealed that the scattering coefficients over northern BoB are 3 to 4 times higher compared to that of central BoB within and above the MABL. A north-south gradient in scattering coefficients is observed over Port Blair in the eastern BoB, with values decreasing from south to north, which is attributed to the similar gradient in the surface wind speed, which can be replicated in the sea salt abundance. The gradients are parameterized using best-fit analytical functions.