116 resultados para Nadaraya- Watson estimator


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We propose a simulation-based algorithm for computing the optimal pricing policy for a product under uncertain demand dynamics. We consider a parameterized stochastic differential equation (SDE) model for the uncertain demand dynamics of the product over the planning horizon. In particular, we consider a dynamic model that is an extension of the Bass model. The performance of our algorithm is compared to that of a myopic pricing policy and is shown to give better results. Two significant advantages with our algorithm are as follows: (a) it does not require information on the system model parameters if the SDE system state is known via either a simulation device or real data, and (b) as it works efficiently even for high-dimensional parameters, it uses the efficient smoothed functional gradient estimator.

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This paper proposes a novel experimental test procedure to estimate the reliability of structural dynamical systems under excitations specified via random process models. The samples of random excitations to be used in the test are modified by the addition of an artificial control force. An unbiased estimator for the reliability is derived based on measured ensemble of responses under these modified inputs based on the tenets of Girsanov transformation. The control force is selected so as to reduce the sampling variance of the estimator. The study observes that an acceptable choice for the control force can be made solely based on experimental techniques and the estimator for the reliability can be deduced without taking recourse to mathematical model for the structure under study. This permits the proposed procedure to be applied in the experimental study of time-variant reliability of complex structural systems that are difficult to model mathematically. Illustrative example consists of a multi-axes shake table study on bending-torsion coupled, geometrically non-linear, five-storey frame under uni/bi-axial, non-stationary, random base excitation. Copyright (c) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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We present the first q-Gaussian smoothed functional (SF) estimator of the Hessian and the first Newton-based stochastic optimization algorithm that estimates both the Hessian and the gradient of the objective function using q-Gaussian perturbations. Our algorithm requires only two system simulations (regardless of the parameter dimension) and estimates both the gradient and the Hessian at each update epoch using these. We also present a proof of convergence of the proposed algorithm. In a related recent work (Ghoshdastidar, Dukkipati, & Bhatnagar, 2014), we presented gradient SF algorithms based on the q-Gaussian perturbations. Our work extends prior work on SF algorithms by generalizing the class of perturbation distributions as most distributions reported in the literature for which SF algorithms are known to work turn out to be special cases of the q-Gaussian distribution. Besides studying the convergence properties of our algorithm analytically, we also show the results of numerical simulations on a model of a queuing network, that illustrate the significance of the proposed method. In particular, we observe that our algorithm performs better in most cases, over a wide range of q-values, in comparison to Newton SF algorithms with the Gaussian and Cauchy perturbations, as well as the gradient q-Gaussian SF algorithms. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We present a new Hessian estimator based on the simultaneous perturbation procedure, that requires three system simulations regardless of the parameter dimension. We then present two Newton-based simulation optimization algorithms that incorporate this Hessian estimator. The two algorithms differ primarily in the manner in which the Hessian estimate is used. Both our algorithms do not compute the inverse Hessian explicitly, thereby saving on computational effort. While our first algorithm directly obtains the product of the inverse Hessian with the gradient of the objective, our second algorithm makes use of the Sherman-Morrison matrix inversion lemma to recursively estimate the inverse Hessian. We provide proofs of convergence for both our algorithms. Next, we consider an interesting application of our algorithms on a problem of road traffic control. Our algorithms are seen to exhibit better performance than two Newton algorithms from a recent prior work.

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This paper addresses the problem of intercepting highly maneuverable threats using seeker-less interceptors that operate in the command guidance mode. These systems are more prone to estimation errors than standard seeker-based systems. In this paper, an integrated estimation/guidance (IEG) algorithm, which combines interactive multiple model (IMM) estimator with differential game guidance law (DGL), is proposed for seeker-less interception. In this interception scenario, the target performs an evasive bang-bang maneuver, while the sensor has noisy measurements and the interceptor is subject to acceleration bound. The IMM serves as a basis for the synthesis of efficient filters for tracking maneuvering targets and reducing estimation errors. The proposed game-based guidance law for two-dimensional interception, later extended to three-dimensional interception scenarios, is used to improve the endgame performance of the command-guided seeker-less interceptor. The IMM scheme and an optimal selection of filters, to cater to various maneuvers that are expected during the endgame, are also described. Furthermore, a chatter removal algorithm is introduced, thus modifying the differential game guidance law (modified DGL). A comparison between modified DGL guidance law and conventional proportional navigation guidance law demonstrates significant improvement in miss distance in a pursuer-evader scenario. Simulation results are also presented for varying flight path angle errors. A numerical study is provided which demonstrates the performance of the combined interactive multiple model with game-based guidance law (IMM/DGL). Simulation study is also carried out for combined IMM and modified DGL (IMM/modified DGL) which exhibits the superior performance and viability of the algorithm reducing the chattering phenomenon. The results are illustrated by an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study in the presence of estimation errors.

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We revisit the a posteriori error analysis of discontinuous Galerkin methods for the obstacle problem derived in 25]. Under a mild assumption on the trace of obstacle, we derive a reliable a posteriori error estimator which does not involve min/max functions. A key in this approach is an auxiliary problem with discrete obstacle. Applications to various discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods are presented. Numerical experiments show that the new estimator obtained in this article performs better.

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We establish zero-crossing rate (ZCR) relations between the input and the subbands of a maximally decimated M-channel power complementary analysis filterbank when the input is a stationary Gaussian process. The ZCR at lag is defined as the number of sign changes between the samples of a sequence and its 1-sample shifted version, normalized by the sequence length. We derive the relationship between the ZCR of the Gaussian process at lags that are integer multiples of Al and the subband ZCRs. Based on this result, we propose a robust iterative autocorrelation estimator for a signal consisting of a sum of sinusoids of fixed amplitudes and uniformly distributed random phases. Simulation results show that the performance of the proposed estimator is better than the sample autocorrelation over the SNR range of -6 to 15 dB. Validation on a segment of a trumpet signal showed similar performance gains.

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A reliable and efficient a posteriori error estimator is derived for a class of discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods for the Signorini problem. A common property shared by many DG methods leads to a unified error analysis with the help of a constraint preserving enriching map. The error estimator of DG methods is comparable with the error estimator of the conforming methods. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the error estimator. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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In this article, an abstract framework for the error analysis of discontinuous Galerkin methods for control constrained optimal control problems is developed. The analysis establishes the best approximation result from a priori analysis point of view and delivers a reliable and efficient a posteriori error estimator. The results are applicable to a variety of problems just under the minimal regularity possessed by the well-posedness of the problem. Subsequently, the applications of C-0 interior penalty methods for a boundary control problem as well as a distributed control problem governed by the biharmonic equation subject to simply supported boundary conditions are discussed through the abstract analysis. Numerical experiments illustrate the theoretical findings.

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In this article, we propose a C-0 interior penalty ((CIP)-I-0) method for the frictional plate contact problem and derive both a priori and a posteriori error estimates. We derive an abstract error estimate in the energy norm without additional regularity assumption on the exact solution. The a priori error estimate is of optimal order whenever the solution is regular. Further, we derive a reliable and efficient a posteriori error estimator. Numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the theoretical results. (c) 2015Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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We address the problem of denoising images corrupted by multiplicative noise. The noise is assumed to follow a Gamma distribution. Compared with additive noise distortion, the effect of multiplicative noise on the visual quality of images is quite severe. We consider the mean-square error (MSE) cost function and derive an expression for an unbiased estimate of the MSE. The resulting multiplicative noise unbiased risk estimator is referred to as MURE. The denoising operation is performed in the wavelet domain by considering the image-domain MURE. The parameters of the denoising function (typically, a shrinkage of wavelet coefficients) are optimized for by minimizing MURE. We show that MURE is accurate and close to the oracle MSE. This makes MURE-based image denoising reliable and on par with oracle-MSE-based estimates. Analogous to the other popular risk estimation approaches developed for additive, Poisson, and chi-squared noise degradations, the proposed approach does not assume any prior on the underlying noise-free image. We report denoising results for various noise levels and show that the quality of denoising obtained is on par with the oracle result and better than that obtained using some state-of-the-art denoisers.