On the basin-scale detection and attribution of human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation and streamflow

Detecting and quantifying the presence of human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is important for studying the impacts of such changes on the water resources systems as well as for reliable future projections and policy making for adaptation. In this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis has been attempted to study the changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in India, considering the variability across different climate models. This is achieved through the use of observations, several climate model runs, a principal component analysis and regression based statistical downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases in observed hydrological variables across the second half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is expected from natural internal variability of climate alone at 95% statistical confidence level, for most of the climate models considered. For several climate models, such changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. However, unequivocal attribution to human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across all the climate models and uncertainties in our detection procedure, arising out of various sources including the use of models, cannot be ruled out. Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are considered as other plausible natural external causes of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic climate change ``signal'' in the hydrological observations, above the natural internal climate variability ``noise'' shows that the detection of the signal is achieved earlier in streamflow as compared to precipitation for most of the climate models, suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate change on streamflow than precipitation at the river basin scale.

Multi-model climate change projections for India under representative concentration pathways

Climate projections for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are made using the newly developed representative concentration pathways (RCPs) under the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5). This article provides multi-model and multi-scenario temperature and precipitation projections for India for the period 1860-2099 based on the new climate data. We find that CMIP5 ensemble mean climate is closer to observed climate than any individual model. The key findings of this study are: (i) under the business-as-usual (between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) scenario, mean warming in India is likely to be in the range 1.7-2 degrees C by 2030s and 3.3-4.8 degrees C by 2080s relative to pre-industrial times; (ii) all-India precipitation under the business-as-usual scenario is projected to increase from 4% to 5% by 2030s and from 6% to 14% towards the end of the century (2080s) compared to the 1961-1990 baseline; (iii) while precipitation projections are generally less reliable than temperature projections, model agreement in precipitation projections increases from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5, and from short-to long-term projections, indicating that long-term precipitation projections are generally more robust than their short-term counterparts and (iv) there is a consistent positive trend in frequency of extreme precipitation days (e.g. > 40 mm/day) for decades 2060s and beyond. These new climate projections should be used in future assessment of impact of climate change and adaptation planning. There is need to consider not just the mean climate projections, but also the more important extreme projections in impact studies and as well in adaptation planning.

Monsoon circulation interaction with Western Ghats orography under changing climate - Projection by a 20-km mesh AGCM

In this study, the authors have investigated the likely future changes in the summer monsoon over the Western Ghats (WG) orographic region of India in response to global warming, using time-slice simulations of an ultra high-resolution global climate model and climate datasets of recent past. The model with approximately 20-km mesh horizontal resolution resolves orographic features on finer spatial scales leading to a quasi-realistic simulation of the spatial distribution of the present-day summer monsoon rainfall over India and trends in monsoon rainfall over the west coast of India. As a result, a higher degree of confidence appears to emerge in many aspects of the 20-km model simulation, and therefore, we can have better confidence in the validity of the model prediction of future changes in the climate over WG mountains. Our analysis suggests that the summer mean rainfall and the vertical velocities over the orographic regions of Western Ghats have significantly weakened during the recent past and the model simulates these features realistically in the present-day climate simulation. Under future climate scenario, by the end of the twenty-first century, the model projects reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghats south of 16A degrees N that is found to be associated with drastic reduction in the southwesterly winds and moisture transport into the region, weakening of the summer mean meridional circulation and diminished vertical velocities. We show that this is due to larger upper tropospheric warming relative to the surface and lower levels, which decreases the lapse rate causing an increase in vertical moist static stability (which in turn inhibits vertical ascent) in response to global warming. Increased stability that weakens vertical velocities leads to reduction in large-scale precipitation which is found to be the major contributor to summer mean rainfall over WG orographic region. This is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy rainfall days over WG which is a typical manifestation of the decrease in large-scale precipitation over this region. Thus, the drastic reduction of vertical ascent and weakening of circulation due to `upper tropospheric warming effect' predominates over the `moisture build-up effect' in reducing the rainfall over this narrow orographic region. This analysis illustrates that monsoon rainfall over mountainous regions is strongly controlled by processes and parameterized physics which need to be resolved with adequately high resolution for accurate assessment of local and regional-scale climate change.

Decentralised carbon footprint analysis for opting climate change mitigation strategies in India

Carbon footprint (CF) refers to the total amount of carbon dioxide and its equivalents emitted due to various anthropogenic activities. Carbon emission and sequestration inventories have been reviewed sector-wise for all federal states in India to identify the sectors and regions responsible for carbon imbalances. This would help in implementing appropriate climate change mitigation and management strategies at disaggregated levels. Major sectors of carbon emissions in India are through electricity generation, transport, domestic energy consumption, industries and agriculture. A majority of carbon storage occurs in forest biomass and soil. This paper focuses on the statewise carbon emissions (CO2. CO and CH4), using region specific emission factors and statewise carbon sequestration capacity. The estimate shows that CO2, CO and CH4 emissions from India are 965.9, 22.5 and 16.9 Tg per year, respectively. Electricity generation contributes 35.5% of total CO2 emission, which is followed by the contribution from transport. Vehicular transport exclusively contributes 25.5% of total emission. The analysis shows that Maharashtra emits higher CO2, followed by Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. The carbon status, which is the ratio of annual carbon storage against carbon emission, for each federal state is computed. This shows that small states and union territories (UT) like Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Andaman and Nicobar Islands, where carbon sequestration is higher due to good vegetation cover, have carbon status > 1. Annually, 7.35% of total carbon emissions get stored either in forest biomass or soil, out of which 34% is in Arunachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Orissa. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficient Methods for Robust Classification Under Uncertainty in Kernel Matrices

In this paper we study the problem of designing SVM classifiers when the kernel matrix, K, is affected by uncertainty. Specifically K is modeled as a positive affine combination of given positive semi definite kernels, with the coefficients ranging in a norm-bounded uncertainty set. We treat the problem using the Robust Optimization methodology. This reduces the uncertain SVM problem into a deterministic conic quadratic problem which can be solved in principle by a polynomial time Interior Point (IP) algorithm. However, for large-scale classification problems, IP methods become intractable and one has to resort to first-order gradient type methods. The strategy we use here is to reformulate the robust counterpart of the uncertain SVM problem as a saddle point problem and employ a special gradient scheme which works directly on the convex-concave saddle function. The algorithm is a simplified version of a general scheme due to Juditski and Nemirovski (2011). It achieves an O(1/T-2) reduction of the initial error after T iterations. A comprehensive empirical study on both synthetic data and real-world protein structure data sets show that the proposed formulations achieve the desired robustness, and the saddle point based algorithm outperforms the IP method significantly.

Semi-supervised SVMs for classification with unknown class proportions and a small labeled dataset

In the design of practical web page classification systems one often encounters a situation in which the labeled training set is created by choosing some examples from each class; but, the class proportions in this set are not the same as those in the test distribution to which the classifier will be actually applied. The problem is made worse when the amount of training data is also small. In this paper we explore and adapt binary SVM methods that make use of unlabeled data from the test distribution, viz., Transductive SVMs (TSVMs) and expectation regularization/constraint (ER/EC) methods to deal with this situation. We empirically show that when the labeled training data is small, TSVM designed using the class ratio tuned by minimizing the loss on the labeled set yields the best performance; its performance is good even when the deviation between the class ratios of the labeled training set and the test set is quite large. When the labeled training data is sufficiently large, an unsupervised Gaussian mixture model can be used to get a very good estimate of the class ratio in the test set; also, when this estimate is used, both TSVM and EC/ER give their best possible performance, with TSVM coming out superior. The ideas in the paper can be easily extended to multi-class SVMs and MaxEnt models.

A non-syntactic approach for text sentiment classification with stopwords

The present approach uses stopwords and the gaps that oc- cur between successive stopwords –formed by contentwords– as features for sentiment classification.

Combination of similarity measures for time series classification using genetic algorithms

Time series classification deals with the problem of classification of data that is multivariate in nature. This means that one or more of the attributes is in the form of a sequence. The notion of similarity or distance, used in time series data, is significant and affects the accuracy, time, and space complexity of the classification algorithm. There exist numerous similarity measures for time series data, but each of them has its own disadvantages. Instead of relying upon a single similarity measure, our aim is to find the near optimal solution to the classification problem by combining different similarity measures. In this work, we use genetic algorithms to combine the similarity measures so as to get the best performance. The weightage given to different similarity measures evolves over a number of generations so as to get the best combination. We test our approach on a number of benchmark time series datasets and present promising results.

Hierarchical artificial immune system for crop stage classification

This paper presents a new hierarchical clustering algorithm for crop stage classification using hyperspectral satellite image. Amongst the multiple benefits and uses of remote sensing, one of the important application is to solve the problem of crop stage classification. Modern commercial imaging satellites, owing to their large volume of satellite imagery, offer greater opportunities for automated image analysis. Hence, we propose a unsupervised algorithm namely Hierarchical Artificial Immune System (HAIS) of two steps: splitting the cluster centers and merging them. The high dimensionality of the data has been reduced with the help of Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The classification results have been compared with K-means and Artificial Immune System algorithms. From the results obtained, we conclude that the proposed hierarchical clustering algorithm is accurate.

Seismic site classification and correlation between standard penetration test N value and shear wave velocity for Lucknow city in Indo-Gangetic basin

Subsurface lithology and seismic site classification of Lucknow urban center located in the central part of the Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) are presented based on detailed shallow subsurface investigations and borehole analysis. These are done by carrying out 47 seismic surface wave tests using multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) and 23 boreholes drilled up to 30 m with standard penetration test (SPT) N values. Subsurface lithology profiles drawn from the drilled boreholes show low- to medium-compressibility clay and silty to poorly graded sand available till depth of 30 m. In addition, deeper boreholes (depth >150 m) were collected from the Lucknow Jal Nigam (Water Corporation), Government of Uttar Pradesh to understand deeper subsoil stratification. Deeper boreholes in this paper refer to those with depth over 150 m. These reports show the presence of clay mix with sand and Kankar at some locations till a depth of 150 m, followed by layers of sand, clay, and Kankar up to 400 m. Based on the available details, shallow and deeper cross-sections through Lucknow are presented. Shear wave velocity (SWV) and N-SPT values were measured for the study area using MASW and SPT testing. Measured SWV and N-SPT values for the same locations were found to be comparable. These values were used to estimate 30 m average values of N-SPT (N-30) and SWV (V-s(30)) for seismic site classification of the study area as per the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) soil classification system. Based on the NEHRP classification, the entire study area is classified into site class C and D based on V-s(30) and site class D and E based on N-30. The issue of larger amplification during future seismic events is highlighted for a major part of the study area which comes under site class D and E. Also, the mismatch of site classes based on N-30 and V-s(30) raises the question of the suitability of the NEHRP classification system for the study region. Further, 17 sets of SPT and SWV data are used to develop a correlation between N-SPT and SWV. This represents a first attempt of seismic site classification and correlation between N-SPT and SWV in the Indo-Gangetic Basin.

Classification of Vehicles using Magnetic Dipole Model

This paper presents an efficient approach to the modeling and classification of vehicles using the magnetic signature of the vehicle. A database was created using the magnetic signature collected over a wide range of vehicles(cars). A vehicle is modeled as an array of magnetic dipoles. The strength of the magnetic dipole and the separation between the magnetic dipoles varies for different vehicles and is dependent on the metallic composition and configuration of the vehicle. Based on the magnetic dipole data model, we present a novel method to extract a feature vector from the magnetic signature. In the classification of vehicles, a linear support vector machine configuration is used to classify the vehicles based on the obtained feature vectors.

Random forest algorithm with derived geographical layers for improved classification of remote sensing data

Effective conservation and management of natural resources requires up-to-date information of the land cover (LC) types and their dynamics. The LC dynamics are being captured using multi-resolution remote sensing (RS) data with appropriate classification strategies. RS data with important environmental layers (either remotely acquired or derived from ground measurements) would however be more effective in addressing LC dynamics and associated changes. These ancillary layers provide additional information for delineating LC classes' decision boundaries compared to the conventional classification techniques. This communication ascertains the possibility of improved classification accuracy of RS data with ancillary and derived geographical layers such as vegetation index, temperature, digital elevation model (DEM), aspect, slope and texture. This has been implemented in three terrains of varying topography. The study would help in the selection of appropriate ancillary data depending on the terrain for better classified information.

Assessing Indian cities for vulnerability to climate change

This paper critically evaluates the vulnerability of Indian cities to climate change in the context of sustainable development. City-scale indicators are developed for multiple dimensions of security and vulnerability. Factor analysis is employed to construct a vulnerability ranking of 46 major Indian cities. The analysis reveals that high aggregate levels of wealth do not necessarily make a city less vulnerable. Two, cities with diversified economic opportunities could adapt better to the new risks posed by climate change, than cities with unipolar opportunities. Three, highly polluted cities are more vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change, and cities with severe groundwater depletion will find it difficult to cope with increased rainfall variability. Policy and sustainability issues are discussed for these results.