Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

Hidden order in serrated flow of metallic glasses

We report results of statistical and dynamic analysis of the serrated stress-time curves obtained from compressive constant strain-rate tests on two metallic glass samples with different ductility levels in an effort to extract hidden information in the seemingly irregular serrations. Two distinct types of dynamics are detected in these two alloy samples. The stress-strain curve corresponding to the less ductile Zr65Cu15Ni10Al10 alloy is shown to exhibit a finite correlation dimension and a positive Lyapunov exponent, suggesting that the underlying dynamics is chaotic. In contrast, for the more ductile Cu47.5Zr47.5Al5 alloy, the distributions of stress drop magnitudes and their time durations obey a power-law scaling reminiscent of a self-organized critical state. The exponents also satisfy the scaling relation compatible with self-organized criticality. Possible physical mechanisms contributing to the two distinct dynamic regimes are discussed by drawing on the analogy with the serrated yielding of crystalline samples. The analysis, together with some physical reasoning, suggests that plasticity in the less ductile sample can be attributed to stick-slip of a single shear band, while that of the more ductile sample could be attributed to the simultaneous nucleation of a large number of shear bands and their mutual interactions. (C) 2011 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Superconductivity from repulsion: a variational view

This letter presents a new class of variational wavefunctions for Fermi systems in any dimension. These wavefunctions introduce correlations between Cooper pairs in different momentum states and the relevant correlations can be computed analytically. At half filling we have a ground state with critical superconducting correlations, that causes negligible increase of the kinetic energy. We find large enhancements in a Cooper-pair correlation function caused purely by the interplay between the uncertainty principle, repulsion and the proximity of half filling. This is surprising since there is no accompanying signature in usual charge and spin response functions, and typifies a novel kind of many-body cooperative behaviour.