A modeling study of the processes of surface salinity seasonal cycle in the Bay of Bengal

In response to the Indian Monsoon freshwater forcing, the Bay of Bengal exhibits a very strong seasonal cycle in sea surface salinity (SSS), especially near the mouths of the Ganges-Brahmaputra and along the east coast of India. In this paper, we use an eddy-permitting (similar to 25 km resolution) regional ocean general circulation model simulation to quantify the processes responsible for this SSS seasonal cycle. Despite the absence of relaxation toward observations, the model reproduces the main features of the observed SSS seasonal cycle, with freshest water in the northeastern Bay, particularly during and after the monsoon. The model also displays an intense and shallow freshening signal in a narrow (similar to 100 km wide) strip that hugs the east coast of India, from September to January, in good agreement with high-resolution measurements along two ships of opportunity lines. The mixed layer salt budget confirms that the strong freshening in the northern Bay during the monsoon results from the Ganges-Brahmaputra river discharge and from precipitation over the ocean. From September onward, the East India Coastal Current transports this freshwater southward along the east coast of India, reaching the southern tip of India in November. The surface freshening results in an enhanced vertical salinity gradient that increases salinity of the surface layer by vertical processes. Our results reveal that the erosion of the freshwater tongue along the east coast of India is not driven by northward horizontal advection, but by vertical processes that eventually overcome the freshening by southward advection and restore SSS to its premonsoon values. The salinity-stratified barrier layer hence only acts as a ``barrier'' for vertical heat fluxes, but is associated with intense vertical salt fluxes in the Bay of Bengal.

Dynamic Site Characterization and Correlation of Shear Wave Velocity with Standard Penetration Test `N' Values for the City of Agartala, Tripura State, India

Seismic site characterization is the basic requirement for seismic microzonation and site response studies of an area. Site characterization helps to gauge the average dynamic properties of soil deposits and thus helps to evaluate the surface level response. This paper presents a seismic site characterization of Agartala city, the capital of Tripura state, in the northeast of India. Seismically, Agartala city is situated in the Bengal Basin zone which is classified as a highly active seismic zone, assigned by Indian seismic code BIS-1893, Indian Standard Criteria for Earthquake Resistant Design of Structures, Part-1 General Provisions and Buildings. According to the Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi (2002), it is the highest seismic level (zone-V) in the country. The city is very close to the Sylhet fault (Bangladesh) where two major earthquakes (M (w) > 7) have occurred in the past and affected severely this city and the whole of northeast India. In order to perform site response evaluation, a series of geophysical tests at 27 locations were conducted using the multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) technique, which is an advanced method for obtaining shear wave velocity (V (s)) profiles from in situ measurements. Similarly, standard penetration test (SPT-N) bore log data sets have been obtained from the Urban Development Department, Govt. of Tripura. In the collected data sets, out of 50 bore logs, 27 were selected which are close to the MASW test locations and used for further study. Both the data sets (V (s) profiles with depth and SPT-N bore log profiles) have been used to calculate the average shear wave velocity (V (s)30) and average SPT-N values for the upper 30 m depth of the subsurface soil profiles. These were used for site classification of the study area recommended by the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) manual. The average V (s)30 and SPT-N classified the study area as seismic site class D and E categories, indicating that the city is susceptible to site effects and liquefaction. Further, the different data set combinations between V (s) and SPT-N (corrected and uncorrected) values have been used to develop site-specific correlation equations by statistical regression, as `V (s)' is a function of SPT-N value (corrected and uncorrected), considered with or without depth. However, after considering the data set pairs, a probabilistic approach has also been presented to develop a correlation using a quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot. A comparison has also been made with the well known published correlations (for all soils) available in the literature. The present correlations closely agree with the other equations, but, comparatively, the correlation of shear wave velocity with the variation of depth and uncorrected SPT-N values provides a more suitable predicting model. Also the Q-Q plot agrees with all the other equations. In the absence of in situ measurements, the present correlations could be used to measure V (s) profiles of the study area for site response studies.

Development and Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models for Monthly Precipitation

Several statistical downscaling models have been developed in the past couple of decades to assess the hydrologic impacts of climate change by projecting the station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents and compares different statistical downscaling models that use multiple linear regression (MLR), positive coefficient regression (PCR), stepwise regression (SR), and support vector machine (SVM) techniques for estimating monthly rainfall amounts in the state of Florida. Mean sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, U wind, and V wind are used as the explanatory variables/predictors in the downscaling models. Data for these variables are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) GCM simulations. The principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) are used as part of downscaling model to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and identify the clusters in the data, respectively. Evaluation of the performances of the models using different error and statistical measures indicates that the SVM-based model performed better than all the other models in reproducing most monthly rainfall statistics at 18 sites. Output from the third-generation CGCM3 GCM for the A1B scenario was used for future projections. For the projection period 2001-10, MLR was used to relate variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales. Use of MLR in linking the predictor variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales yielded better reproduction of monthly rainfall statistics at most of the stations (12 out of 18) compared to those by spatial interpolation technique used in earlier studies.

The role of buoyancy in polarity reversals of the geodynamo

We investigate polarity reversals in the geodynamo using a rotating, convection-driven dynamo model. As the flow in rapidly rotating convection is dominated by columns aligned with the axis of rotation, the focus is on the dynamics of columnar vortices. By studying the growth of a seed magnetic field to a stable axial dipole field, we show that the magnetic field acts in ways that significantly enhance the relative helicity between cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices. This flow asymmetry is the hallmark of a dipolar dynamo. Strong buoyancy, on the other hand, offsets the effect of the magnetic field, establishing parity between positive and negative vortices. As the dipole field is deprived of the helicity required to support itself, the dynamo is pushed into a reversing state. This is a likely regime for polarity reversals in the Earth's core. The integral lengthscale at which buoyancy injects energy is not significantly different from the convective flow lengthscale, which implies that buoyancy does not feed vortices at the small scales where non-linear inertia is present. The lengthscale at which the Lorentz force acts in the reversing dynamo is small, which may allow the passive presence of non-linear inertia in the small scales.

Combining data sets of satellite-retrieved products for basin-scale water balance study: 2. Evaluation on the Mississippi Basin and closure correction model

In this study, we applied the integration methodology developed in the companion paper by Aires (2014) by using real satellite observations over the Mississippi Basin. The methodology provides basin-scale estimates of the four water budget components (precipitation P, evapotranspiration E, water storage change Delta S, and runoff R) in a two-step process: the Simple Weighting (SW) integration and a Postprocessing Filtering (PF) that imposes the water budget closure. A comparison with in situ observations of P and E demonstrated that PF improved the estimation of both components. A Closure Correction Model (CCM) has been derived from the integrated product (SW+PF) that allows to correct each observation data set independently, unlike the SW+PF method which requires simultaneous estimates of the four components. The CCM allows to standardize the various data sets for each component and highly decrease the budget residual (P - E - Delta S - R). As a direct application, the CCM was combined with the water budget equation to reconstruct missing values in any component. Results of a Monte Carlo experiment with synthetic gaps demonstrated the good performances of the method, except for the runoff data that has a variability of the same order of magnitude as the budget residual. Similarly, we proposed a reconstruction of Delta S between 1990 and 2002 where no Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data are available. Unlike most of the studies dealing with the water budget closure at the basin scale, only satellite observations and in situ runoff measurements are used. Consequently, the integrated data sets are model independent and can be used for model calibration or validation.

Impact of diurnal forcing on intraseasonal sea surface temperature oscillations in the Bay of Bengal

The diurnal cycle is an important mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in tropical oceans, influencing air-sea interaction and climate variability. Upper ocean mixing mechanisms are significant at diurnal time scales controlling the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of SST. Sensitivity experiments using an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) for the summer monsoon of the year 2007 show that incorporation of diurnal cycle in the model atmospheric forcings improves the SST simulation at both intraseasonal and shorter time scales in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). The increase in SST-ISV amplitudes with diurnal forcing is approximate to 0.05 degrees C in the southern bay while it is approximate to 0.02 degrees C in the northern bay. Increased intraseasonal warming with diurnal forcing results from the increase in mixed layer heat gain from insolation, due to shoaling of the daytime mixed layer. Amplified intraseasonal cooling is dominantly controlled by the strengthening of subsurface processes owing to the nocturnal deepening of mixed layer. In the southern bay, intraseasonal variability is mainly determined by the diurnal cycle in insolation, while in the northern bay, diurnal cycle in insolation and winds have comparable contributions. Temperature inversions (TI) develop in the northern bay in the absence of diurnal variability in wind stress. In the northern bay, SST-ISV amplification is not as large as that in the southern bay due to the weaker diurnal variability of mixed layer depth (MLD) limited by salinity stratification. Diurnal variability of model MLD is not sufficient to create large modifications in mixed layer heat budget and SST-ISV in the northern bay.

Interpreting the upper level structure of the Madden-Julian oscillation

The nonlinear response of a spherical shallow water model to an imposed heat source in the presence of realistic zonal mean zonal winds is investigated numerically. The solutions exhibit elongated, meridionally tilted ridges and troughs indicative of a poleward dispersion of wave activity. As the speed of the jets is increased, the equatorial Kelvin wave is unaffected but the global Rossby wave train coalesces to form a compact, amplified quadrupole structure that bears a striking resemblance to the observed upper level structure of the Madden-Julian oscillation. In the presence of strong subtropical westerly jets, the advection of planetary vorticity by the meridional flow and relative vorticity by the zonally averaged background flow conspire to create the distinctive quadrupole configuration of flanking Rossby waves.

Optical properties and CCN activity of aerosols in a high-altitude Himalayan environment: Results from RAWEX-GVAX

The seasonality and mutual dependence of aerosol optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity under varying meteorological conditions at the high-altitude Nainital site (2km) in the Indo-Gangetic Plains were examined using nearly year-round measurements (June 2011 to March 2012) at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement mobile facility as part of the Regional Aerosol Warming Experiment-Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment of the Indian Space Research Organization and the U.S. Department of Energy. The results from collocated measurements provided enhanced aerosol scattering and absorption coefficients, CCN concentrations, and total condensation nuclei concentrations during the dry autumn and winter months. The CCN concentration (at a supersaturation of 0.46) was higher during the periods of high aerosol absorption (single scattering albedo (SSA)<0.80) than during the periods of high aerosol scattering (SSA>0.85), indicating that the aerosol composition seasonally changes and influences the CCN activity. The monthly mean CCN activation ratio (at a supersaturation of 0.46) was highest (>0.7) in late autumn (November); this finding is attributed to the contribution of biomass-burning aerosols to CCN formation at high supersaturation conditions.

Medieval pulse of great earthquakes in the central Himalaya: Viewing past activities on the frontal thrust

The Himalaya has experienced three great earthquakes during the last century1934 Nepal-Bihar, 1950 Upper Assam, and arguably the 1905 Kangra. Focus here is on the central Himalayan segment between the 1905 and the 1934 ruptures, where previous studies have identified a great earthquake between thirteenth and sixteenth centuries. Historical data suggest damaging earthquakes in A.D. 1255, 1344, 1505, 1803, and 1833, although their sources and magnitudes remain debated. We present new evidence for a great earthquake from a trench across the base of a 13m high scarp near Ramnagar at the Himalayan Frontal Thrust. The section exposed four south verging fault strands and a backthrust offsetting a broad spectrum of lithounits, including colluvial deposits. Age data suggest that the last great earthquake in the central Himalaya most likely occurred between A.D. 1259 and 1433. While evidence for this rupture is unmistakable, the stratigraphic clues imply an earlier event, which can most tentatively be placed between A.D. 1050 and 1250. The postulated existence of this earlier event, however, requires further validation. If the two-earthquake scenario is realistic, then the successive ruptures may have occurred in close intervals and were sourced on adjacent segments that overlapped at the trench site. Rupture(s) identified in the trench closely correlate with two damaging earthquakes of 1255 and 1344 reported from Nepal. The present study suggests that the frontal thrust in central Himalaya may have remained seismically inactive during the last similar to 700years. Considering this long elapsed time, a great earthquake may be due in the region.

Surface motions and intraplate continental deformation in Alaska driven by mantle flow

The degree to which the lithosphere and mantle are coupled and contribute to surface deformation beneath continental regions remains a fundamental question in the field of geodynamics. Here we use a new approach with a surface deformation field constrained by GPS, geologic, and seismicity data, together with a lithospheric geodynamic model, to solve for tractions inferred to be generated by mantle convection that (1) drive extension within interior Alaska generating southward directed surface motions toward the southern convergent plate boundary, (2) result in accommodation of the relative motions between the Pacific and North America in a comparatively small zone near the plate boundary, and (3) generate the observed convergence within the North American plate interior in the Mackenzie mountains in northwestern Canada. The evidence for deeper mantle influence on surface deformation beneath a continental region suggests that this mechanism may be an important contributing driver to continental plate assemblage and breakup.

Geomorphology reveals active decollement geometry in the central Himalayan seismic gap

The similar to 700-km-long ``central seismic gap'' is the most prominent segment of the Himalayan front not to have ruptured in a major earthquake during the last 200-500 yr. This prolonged seismic quiescence has led to the proposition that this region, with a population >10 million, is overdue for a great earthquake. Despite the region's recognized seismic risk, the geometry of faults likely to host large earthquakes remains poorly understood. Here, we place new constraints on the spatial distribution of rock uplift within the western similar to 400 km of the central seismic gap using topographic and river profile analyses together with basinwide erosion rate estimates from cosmogenic Be-10. The data sets show a distinctive physiographic transition at the base of the high Himalaya in the state of Uttarakhand, India, characterized by abrupt strike-normal increases in channel steepness and a tenfold increase in erosion rates. When combined with previously published geophysical imaging and seismicity data sets, we interpret the observed spatial distribution of erosion rates and channel steepness to reflect the landscape response to spatially variable rock uplift due to a structurally coherent ramp-flat system of the Main Himalayan Thrust. Although it remains unresolved whether the kinematics of the Main Himalayan Thrust ramp involve an emergent fault or duplex, the landscape and erosion rate patterns suggest that the decollement beneath the state of Uttarakhand provides a sufficiently large and coherent fault segment capable of hosting a great earthquake.

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5A degrees. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960-1990), showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region.

Comprehensive evaluation of multisatellite precipitation estimates over India using gridded rainfall data

This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of five widely used multisatellite precipitation estimates (MPEs) against 1 degrees x 1 degrees gridded rain gauge data set as ground truth over India. One decade observations are used to assess the performance of various MPEs (Climate Prediction Center (CPC)-South Asia data set, CPC Morphing Technique (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation From Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA-3B42), and Global Precipitation Climatology Project). All MPEs have high detection skills of rain with larger probability of detection (POD) and smaller ``missing'' values. However, the detection sensitivity differs from one product (and also one region) to the other. While the CMORPH has the lowest sensitivity of detecting rain, CPC shows highest sensitivity and often overdetects rain, as evidenced by large POD and false alarm ratio and small missing values. All MPEs show higher rain sensitivity over eastern India than western India. These differential sensitivities are found to alter the biases in rain amount differently. All MPEs show similar spatial patterns of seasonal rain bias and root-mean-square error, but their spatial variability across India is complex and pronounced. The MPEs overestimate the rainfall over the dry regions (northwest and southeast India) and severely underestimate over mountainous regions (west coast and northeast India), whereas the bias is relatively small over the core monsoon zone. Higher occurrence of virga rain due to subcloud evaporation and possible missing of small-scale convective events by gauges over the dry regions are the main reasons for the observed overestimation of rain by MPEs. The decomposed components of total bias show that the major part of overestimation is due to false precipitation. The severe underestimation of rain along the west coast is attributed to the predominant occurrence of shallow rain and underestimation of moderate to heavy rain by MPEs. The decomposed components suggest that the missed precipitation and hit bias are the leading error sources for the total bias along the west coast. All evaluation metrics are found to be nearly equal in two contrasting monsoon seasons (southwest and northeast), indicating that the performance of MPEs does not change with the season, at least over southeast India. Among various MPEs, the performance of TMPA is found to be better than others, as it reproduced most of the spatial variability exhibited by the reference.

On the control of rapidly rotating convection by an axially varying magnetic field

The magnetic field in rapidly rotating dynamos is spatially inhomogeneous. The axial variation of the magnetic field is of particular importance because tall columnar vortices aligned with the rotation axis form at the onset of convection. The classical picture of magnetoconvection with constant or axially varying magnetic fields is that the Rayleigh number and wavenumber at onset decrease appreciably from their non-magnetic values. Nonlinear dynamo simulations show that the axial lengthscale of the self-generated azimuthal magnetic field becomes progressively smaller as we move towards a rapidly rotating regime. With a small-scale field, however, the magnetic control of convection is different from that in previous studies with a uniform or large-scale field. This study looks at the competing viscous and magnetic mode instabilities when the Ekman number E (ratio of viscous to Coriolis forces) is small. As the applied magnetic field strength (measured by the Elsasser number Lambda) increases, the critical Rayleigh number for onset of convection initially increases in a viscous branch, reaches an apex where both viscous and magnetic instabilities co-exist, and then falls in the magnetic branch. The magnetic mode of onset is notable for its dramatic suppression of convection in the bulk of the fluid layer where the field is weak. The viscous-magnetic mode transition occurs at Lambda similar to 1, which implies that small-scale convection can exist at field strengths higher than previously thought. In spherical shell dynamos with basal heating, convection near the tangent cylinder is likely to be in the magnetic mode. The wavenumber of convection is only slightly reduced by the self-generated magnetic field at Lambda similar to 1, in agreement with previous planetary dynamo models. The back reaction of the magnetic field on the flow is, however, visible in the difference in kinetic helicity between cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices.