348 resultados para Dynamic prediction


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This paper deals with the simulation-driven study of the impact of hardened steel projectiles on thin aluminium target plates using explicit finite element analysis as implemented in LS-DYNA. The evaluation of finite element modelling includes a comprehensive mesh convergence study using shell elements for representing target plates and the solid element-based representation of ogivalnosed projectiles. A user-friendly automatic contact detection algorithm is used for capturing interaction between the projectile and the target plate. It is shown that the proper choice of mesh density and strain rate-dependent material properties is crucial as these parameters significantly affect the computed residual velocity. The efficacy of correlation with experimental data is adjudged in terms of a 'correlation index' defined in the present study for which values close to unity are desirable.By simulating laboratory impact tests on thin aluminium plates carried out by earlier investigators, extremely good prediction of experimental ballistic limits has been observed with correlation indices approaching unity. Additional simulation-based parametric studies have been carried out and results consistent with test data have been obtained. The simulation procedures followed in the present study can be applied with confidence in designing thin aluminium armour plates for protection against low calibre projectiles.

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Combining the advanced techniques of optimal dynamic inversion and model-following neuro-adaptive control design, an efficient technique is presented for effective treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). A recently developed nonlinear mathematical model for cell dynamics is used for the control (medication) synthesis. First, taking a set of nominal parameters, a nominal controller is designed based on the principle of optimal dynamic inversion. This controller can treat nominal patients (patients having same nominal parameters as used for the control design) effectively. However, since the parameters of an actual patient can be different from that of the ideal patient, to make the treatment strategy more effective and efficient, a model-following neuro-adaptive controller is augmented to the nominal controller. In this approach, a neural network trained online (based on Lyapunov stability theory) facilitates a new adaptive controller, computed online. From the simulation studies, this adaptive control design approach (treatment strategy) is found to be very effective to treat the CML disease for actual patients. Sufficient generality is retained in the theoretical developments in this paper, so that the techniques presented can be applied to other similar problem as well. Note that the technique presented is computationally non-intensive and all computations can be carried out online.

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This paper reviews computational reliability, computer algebra, stochastic stability and rotating frame turbulence (RFT) in the context of predicting the blade inplane mode stability, a mode which is at best weakly damped. Computational reliability can be built into routine Floquet analysis involving trim analysis and eigenanalysis, and a highly portable special purpose processor restricted to rotorcraft dynamics analysis is found to be more economical than a multipurpose processor. While the RFT effects are dominant in turbulence modeling, the finding that turbulence stabilizes the inplane mode is based on the assumption that turbulence is white noise.

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An application of Artificial Neural Networks for predicting the stress-strain response of jointed rocks under different confining pressures is presented in this paper. Rocks of different compressive strength with different joint properties (frequency, orientation and strength of joints) are considered in this study. The database for training the neural network is formed from the results of triaxial compression tests on different intact and jointed rocks with different joint properties tested at different confining pressures reported by various researchers in the literature. The network was trained using a three-layered network with the feed-forward back propagation algorithm.About 85% of the data was used for training and the remaining 15% was used for testing the network. Results from the analyses demonstrated that the neural network approach is effective in capturing the stress-strain behaviour of intact rocks and the complex stress-strain behaviour of jointed rocks. A single neural network is demonstrated to be capable of predicting the stress-strain response of different jointed rocks, whose intact strength varies from 11.32 MPa to 123 MPa, spacing of joints varies from 10 cm to 100 cm. and confining pressures range from 0 to 13.8 MPa. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The problem of time variant reliability analysis of existing structures subjected to stationary random dynamic excitations is considered. The study assumes that samples of dynamic response of the structure, under the action of external excitations, have been measured at a set of sparse points on the structure. The utilization of these measurements m in updating reliability models, postulated prior to making any measurements, is considered. This is achieved by using dynamic state estimation methods which combine results from Markov process theory and Bayes' theorem. The uncertainties present in measurements as well as in the postulated model for the structural behaviour are accounted for. The samples of external excitations are taken to emanate from known stochastic models and allowance is made for ability (or lack of it) to measure the applied excitations. The future reliability of the structure is modeled using expected structural response conditioned on all the measurements made. This expected response is shown to have a time varying mean and a random component that can be treated as being weakly stationary. For linear systems, an approximate analytical solution for the problem of reliability model updating is obtained by combining theories of discrete Kalman filter and level crossing statistics. For the case of nonlinear systems, the problem is tackled by combining particle filtering strategies with data based extreme value analysis. In all these studies, the governing stochastic differential equations are discretized using the strong forms of Ito-Taylor's discretization schemes. The possibility of using conditional simulation strategies, when applied external actions are measured, is also considered. The proposed procedures are exemplifiedmby considering the reliability analysis of a few low-dimensional dynamical systems based on synthetically generated measurement data. The performance of the procedures developed is also assessed based on a limited amount of pertinent Monte Carlo simulations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This paper describes a predictive model for breakout noise from an elliptical duct or shell of finite length. The transmission mechanism is essentially that of ``mode coupling'', whereby higher structural modes in the duct walls get excited because of non-circularity of the wall. Effect of geometry has been taken care of by evaluating Fourier coefficients of the radius of curvature. The noise radiated from the duct walls is represented by that from a finite vibrating length of a semi infinite cylinder in a free field. Emphasis is on understanding the physics of the problem as well as analytical modeling. The analytical model is validated with 3-D FEM. Effects of the ovality, curvature, and axial terminations of the duct have been demonstrated. (C) 2010 Institute of Noise Control Engineering.

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The flapping equation for a rotating rigid helicopter blade is typically derived by considering (1)small flap angle, (2) small induced angle of attack and (3) linear aerodynamics. However, the use of nonlinear aerodynamics such as dynamic stall can make the assumptions of small angles suspect as shown in this paper. A general equation describing helicopter blade flap dynamics for large flap angle and large induced inflow angle of attack is derived. A semi-empirical dynamic stall aerodynamics model (ONERA model) is used. Numerical simulations are performed by solving the nonlinear flapping ordinary differential equation for steady state conditions and the validity of the small angle approximations are examined. It is shown that the small flapping assumption, and to a lesser extent, the small induced angle ofattack assumption, can lead to inaccurate predictions of the blade flap response in certain flight conditions for some rotors when nonlinear aerodynamics is considered. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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A modified linear prediction (MLP) method is proposed in which the reference sensor is optimally located on the extended line of the array. The criterion of optimality is the minimization of the prediction error power, where the prediction error is defined as the difference between the reference sensor and the weighted array outputs. It is shown that the L2-norm of the least-squares array weights attains a minimum value for the optimum spacing of the reference sensor, subject to some soft constraint on signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). How this minimum norm property can be used for finding the optimum spacing of the reference sensor is described. The performance of the MLP method is studied and compared with that of the linear prediction (LP) method using resolution, detection bias, and variance as the performance measures. The study reveals that the MLP method performs much better than the LP technique.

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Changes in MAPK activities were examined in the corpus luteum (CL) during luteolysis and pregnancy, employing GnRH antagonist (Cetrorelix)-induced luteolysis, stages of CL, and hCG treatment to mimic early pregnancy as model systems in the bonnet monkey. We hypothesized that MAPKs could serve to phosphorylate critical phosphoproteins to regulate luteal function. Analysis of several indices for structural (caspase-3 activity and DNA fragmentation) and functional (progesterone and steroidogenic acute regulatory protein expression) changes in the CL revealed that the decreased luteal function observed during Cetrorelix treatment and late luteal phase was associated with increased caspase-3 activity and DNA fragmentation. As expected, human chorionic gonadotropin treatment dramatically increased luteal function, but the indices for structural changes were only partially attenuated. All three MAPKs appeared to be constitutively active in the mid-luteal-phase CL, and activities of ERK-1/2 and p38-MAPK (p38), but not Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK)-1/2, decreased significantly (P < 0.05) within 12 - 24 h after Cetrorelix treatment. During the late luteal phase, in contrast to decreased ERK-1/2 and p38 activities, JNK-1/2 activities increased significantly (P < 0.05). Although human chorionic gonadotropin treatment increased ERK-1/2 and p38 activities, it decreased JNK-1/2 activities. The activation status of p38 was correlated with the phosphorylation status of an upstream activator, MAPK kinase-3/6 and the expression of MAPK activated protein kinase-3, a downstream target. Intraluteal administration of p38 kinase inhibitor (SB203580), but not MAPK kinase-1/2 inhibitor (PD98059), decreased the luteal function. Together, these data suggest an important role for p38 in the regulation of CL function in primates.

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In this paper, we use reinforcement learning (RL) as a tool to study price dynamics in an electronic retail market consisting of two competing sellers, and price sensitive and lead time sensitive customers. Sellers, offering identical products, compete on price to satisfy stochastically arriving demands (customers), and follow standard inventory control and replenishment policies to manage their inventories. In such a generalized setting, RL techniques have not previously been applied. We consider two representative cases: 1) no information case, were none of the sellers has any information about customer queue levels, inventory levels, or prices at the competitors; and 2) partial information case, where every seller has information about the customer queue levels and inventory levels of the competitors. Sellers employ automated pricing agents, or pricebots, which use RL-based pricing algorithms to reset the prices at random intervals based on factors such as number of back orders, inventory levels, and replenishment lead times, with the objective of maximizing discounted cumulative profit. In the no information case, we show that a seller who uses Q-learning outperforms a seller who uses derivative following (DF). In the partial information case, we model the problem as a Markovian game and use actor-critic based RL to learn dynamic prices. We believe our approach to solving these problems is a new and promising way of setting dynamic prices in multiseller environments with stochastic demands, price sensitive customers, and inventory replenishments.

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THE flowfield due to transverse injection of a round sonic jet into a supersonic flowis a configuration of interest in the design of supersonic combustors or thrust vector control of supersonic jets. The flow is also of fundamental interest because it presents separation from a smooth surface, embedded subsonic regions, curved shear layers, strong shocks, an unusual development of the injected jet into a kidney-shaped streamwise vortex pair, and a wake behind the jet. Although the geometry is simple, the flow is complex and is a good candidate for assessing the behavior of turbulence models for high-speed flow, beginning with the corresponding two-dimensional flow shown in Fig. 1. At the slot, an underexpanded sonic jet expands rapidly into the supersonic crossflow. Expansion waves reflect at the jet boundary, coalesce, and give rise to a Mach surface (Mach disk for round jets).

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Slag foaming under dynamic conditions has been studied in laboratory scale to examine the influence of properties commonly used to describe the foaminess and foam stability of slags under steady-state conditions. Synthetically produced slags with compositions relevant to tool steel and stainless steel production were studied through X-ray equipment in measurements simulating the dynamic conditions found in real processes. It is found that the dynamic systems display a more complex behavior than systems Under steady state. Traditional theories for foaming do not seem to be valid for slag foaming under dynamic conditions. The foam displays a fluctuating behavior, which the presently available models are not able to take into account. The concept of a foaming index does not seem to be applicable, resulting in the need for alternative models.

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In the present article, slag foaming phenomenon under dynamic conditions is critically analyzed on the basis of the results of high-temperature X-ray image analysis experiments. The results indicate that the mismatch between the gas generation rate and gas escape rate has a serious impact on the foam height. This mismatch is attributed to the chemical reaction rate, which has to be considered in modeling slag foaming under dynamic conditions. The results further imply that a critical ratio of bubble size/crucible size exists, where wall effects are likely to become prominent.