Multi-scale interactions and predictability of the Indian summer monsoon

Following the seminal work of Charney and Shukla (198 1), the tropical climate is recognised to be more predictable than extra tropical climate as it is largely forced by 'external' slowly varying forcing and less sensitive to initial conditions. However, the Indian summer monsoon is an exception within the tropics where 'internal' low frequency (LF) oscillations seem to make significant contribution to its interannual variability (IAV) and makes it sensitive to initial conditions. Quantitative estimate of contribution of 'internal' dynamics to IAV of Indian monsoon is made using long experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and through analysis of long daily observations. Both AGCM experiments and observations indicate that more than 50% of IAV of the monsoon is contributed by 'internal' dynamics making the predictable signal (external component) burried in unpredictable noise (internal component) of comparable amplitude. Better understanding of the nature of the 'internal' LF variability is crucial for any improvement in predicition of seasonal mean monsoon. Nature of 'internal' LF variability of the monsoon and mechanism responsible for it are investigated and shown that vigorous monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO's) with time scale between 10-70 days are primarily responsible for generating the 'internal' IAV. The monsoon ISO's do this through scale interactions with synoptic disturbances (1-7 day time scale) on one hand and the annual cycle on the other. The spatial structure of the monsoon ISO's is similar to that of the seasonal mean. It is shown that frequency of occurance of strong (weak) phases of the ISO is different in different seasons giving rise to stronger (weaker) than normal monsoon. Change in the large scale circulation during strong (weak) phases of the ISO make it favourable (inhibiting) for cyclogenesis and gives rise to space time clustering of synoptic activity. This process leads to enhanced (reduced) rainfall in seasons of higher frequency of occurence strong (weak) phases of monsoon ISO.

On the role of cloud adjustment time scale in simulating precipitation with Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert convection scheme

The precipitation by Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization in a General Circulation Model (GCM) is sensitive to the choice of relaxation parameter or specified cloud adjustment time scale. In the present study, we examine sensitivity of simulated precipitation to the choice of cloud adjustment time scale (tau(adj)) over different parts of the tropics using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM) during June-September. The results show that a single specified value of tau(adj) performs best only over a particular region and different values are preferred over different parts of the world. To find a relation between tau(adj) and cloud depth (convective activity) we choose six regions over the tropics. Based on the observed relation between outgoing long-wave radiation and tau(adj), we propose a linear cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter to be used in the model. The simulations over most parts of the tropics show improved results due to this newly formulated cloud-type dependent relaxation parameter.

Oscillatory settling in wormlike-micelle solutions: bursts and a long time scale

We study the dynamics of a spherical steel ball falling freely through a solution of entangled wormlike-micelles. If the sphere diameter is larger than a threshold value, the settling velocity shows repeated short oscillatory bursts separated by long periods of relative quiescence. We propose a model incorporating the interplay of settling-induced flow, viscoelastic stress and, as in M. E. Cates, D. A. Head and A. Ajdari, Phys. Rev. E, 2002, 66, 025202(R) and A. Aradian and M. E. Cates, Phys. Rev. E, 2006, 73, 041508, a slow structural variable for which our experiments offer independent evidence.

An invariant subspace-based approach to the random eigenvalue problem of systems with clustered spectrum

The repeated or closely spaced eigenvalues and corresponding eigenvectors of a matrix are usually very sensitive to a perturbation of the matrix, which makes capturing the behavior of these eigenpairs very difficult. Similar difficulty is encountered in solving the random eigenvalue problem when a matrix with random elements has a set of clustered eigenvalues in its mean. In addition, the methods to solve the random eigenvalue problem often differ in characterizing the problem, which leads to different interpretations of the solution. Thus, the solutions obtained from different methods become mathematically incomparable. These two issues, the difficulty of solving and the non-unique characterization, are addressed here. A different approach is used where instead of tracking a few individual eigenpairs, the corresponding invariant subspace is tracked. The spectral stochastic finite element method is used for analysis, where the polynomial chaos expansion is used to represent the random eigenvalues and eigenvectors. However, the main concept of tracking the invariant subspace remains mostly independent of any such representation. The approach is successfully implemented in response prediction of a system with repeated natural frequencies. It is found that tracking only an invariant subspace could be sufficient to build a modal-based reduced-order model of the system. Copyright (C) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

AdFT: An Adaptive Framework for Fault Tolerance on Large Scale Systems using Application Malleability

Exascale systems of the future are predicted to have mean time between failures (MTBF) of less than one hour. Malleable applications, where the number of processors on which the applications execute can be changed during executions, can make use of their malleability to better tolerate high failure rates. We present AdFT, an adaptive fault tolerance framework for long running malleable applications to maximize application performance in the presence of failures. AdFT framework includes cost models for evaluating the benefits of various fault tolerance actions including checkpointing, live-migration and rescheduling, and runtime decisions for dynamically selecting the fault tolerance actions at different points of application execution to maximize performance. Simulations with real and synthetic failure traces show that our approach outperforms existing fault tolerance mechanisms for malleable applications yielding up to 23% improvement in application performance, and is effective even for petascale systems and beyond.

Climate response to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and solar irradiance on the time scale of days to weeks

Recent studies show that fast climate response on time scales of less than a month can have important implications for long-term climate change. In this study, we investigate climate response on the time scale of days to weeks to a step-function quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 and contrast this with the response to a 4% increase in solar irradiance. Our simulations show that significant climate effects occur within days of a stepwise increase in both atmospheric CO2 content and solar irradiance. Over ocean, increased atmospheric CO2 warms the lower troposphere more than the surface, increasing atmospheric stability, moistening the boundary layer, and suppressing evaporation and precipitation. In contrast, over ocean, increased solar irradiance warms the lower troposphere to a much lesser extent, causing a much smaller change in evaporation and precipitation. Over land, both increased CO2 and increased solar irradiance cause rapid surface warming that tends to increase both evaporation and precipitation. However, the physiological effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on plant stomata reduces plant transpiration, drying the boundary layer and decreasing precipitation. This effect does not occur with increased solar irradiance. Therefore, differences in climatic effects from CO2 versus solar forcing are manifested within days after the forcing is imposed.

Large scale synthesis of ultralong aligned buckled multiwalled carbon nanotubes by one-step pyrolysis

We report on the large scale synthesis of millimetre long buckled multiwalled carbon nanotubes by one-step pyrolysis. Current carrying capability of a highly buckled region is shown to be more as compared to a less buckled region.

On the basin-scale detection and attribution of human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation and streamflow

Detecting and quantifying the presence of human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is important for studying the impacts of such changes on the water resources systems as well as for reliable future projections and policy making for adaptation. In this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and attribution analysis has been attempted to study the changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in India, considering the variability across different climate models. This is achieved through the use of observations, several climate model runs, a principal component analysis and regression based statistical downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases in observed hydrological variables across the second half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is expected from natural internal variability of climate alone at 95% statistical confidence level, for most of the climate models considered. For several climate models, such changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. However, unequivocal attribution to human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across all the climate models and uncertainties in our detection procedure, arising out of various sources including the use of models, cannot be ruled out. Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are considered as other plausible natural external causes of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic climate change ``signal'' in the hydrological observations, above the natural internal climate variability ``noise'' shows that the detection of the signal is achieved earlier in streamflow as compared to precipitation for most of the climate models, suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate change on streamflow than precipitation at the river basin scale.

Integrated parallelization of computations and visualization for large-scale applications

Critical applications like cyclone tracking and earthquake modeling require simultaneous high-performance simulations and online visualization for timely analysis. Faster simulations and simultaneous visualization enable scientists provide real-time guidance to decision makers. In this work, we have developed an integrated user-driven and automated steering framework that simultaneously performs numerical simulations and efficient online remote visualization of critical weather applications in resource-constrained environments. It considers application dynamics like the criticality of the application and resource dynamics like the storage space, network bandwidth and available number of processors to adapt various application and resource parameters like simulation resolution, simulation rate and the frequency of visualization. We formulate the problem of finding an optimal set of simulation parameters as a linear programming problem. This leads to 30% higher simulation rate and 25-50% lesser storage consumption than a naive greedy approach. The framework also provides the user control over various application parameters like region of interest and simulation resolution. We have also devised an adaptive algorithm to reduce the lag between the simulation and visualization times. Using experiments with different network bandwidths, we find that our adaptive algorithm is able to reduce lag as well as visualize the most representative frames.

Effect of length scale on mechanical properties of Al-Cu eutectic alloy

This paper attempts a quantitative understanding of the effect of length scale on two phase eutectic structure. We first develop a model that considers both the elastic and plastic properties of the interface. Using Al-Al2Cu lamellar eutectic as model system, the parameters of the model were experimentally determined using indentation technique. The model is further validated using the results of bulk compression testing of the eutectics having different length scales. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4761944]

Study of terahertz wave propagation properties in nanoplates with surface and small-scale effects

In macroscopic and even microscopic structural elements, surface effects can be neglected and classical theories are sufficient. As the structural size decreases towards the nanoscale regime, the surface-to-bulk energy ratio increases and surface effects must be taken into account. In the present work, the terahertz wave dispersion characteristics of a nanoplate are studied with consideration of the surface effects as well as the nonlocal small-scale effects. Nonlocal elasticity theory of plate is used to derive the general differential equation based on equilibrium approach to include those scale effects. Scale and surface property dependent wave characteristic equations are obtained via spectral analysis. For the present study the material properties of an anodic alumina with crystallographic of < 111 > direction are considered. The present analysis shows that the effect of surface properties on the flexural waves of nanoplates is more significant. It can be found that the flexural wavenumbers with surface effects are high as compared to that without surface effects. The scale effects show that the wavenumbers of the flexural wave become highly non-linear and tend to infinite at certain frequency. After that frequency the wave will not propagate and the corresponding wave velocities tend to zero at that frequency (escape frequency). The effects of surface stresses on the wave propagation properties of nanoplate are also captured in the present work. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SCALE EFFECTS ON ULTRASONIC WAVE DISPERSION CHARACTERISTICS OF MONOLAYER GRAPHENE EMBEDDED IN AN ELASTIC MEDIUM

Ultrasonic wave propagation in a graphene sheet, which is embedded in an elastic medium, is studied using nonlocal elasticity theory incorporating small-scale effects. The graphene sheet is modeled as an one-atom thick isotropic plate and the elastic medium/substrate is modeled as distributed springs. For this model, the nonlocal governing differential equations of motion are derived from the minimization of the total potential energy of the entire system. After that, an ultrasonic type of wave propagation model is also derived. The explicit expressions for the cut-off frequencies are also obtained as functions of the nonlocal scaling parameter and the y-directional wavenumber. Local elasticity shows that the wave will propagate even at higher frequencies. But nonlocal elasticity predicts that the waves can propagate only up to certain frequencies (called escape frequencies), after which the wave velocity becomes zero. The results also show that the escape frequencies are purely a function of the nonlocal scaling parameter. The effect of the elastic medium is captured in the wave dispersion analysis and this analysis is explained with respect to both local and nonlocal elasticity. The simulations show that the elastic medium affects only the flexural wave mode in the graphene sheet. The presence of the elastic matrix increases the band gap of the flexural mode. The present results can provide useful guidance for the design of next-generation nanodevices in which graphene-based composites act as a major element.

Asymptotics of the invariant measure in mean field models with jumps

We consider the asymptotics of the invariant measure for the process of spatial distribution of N coupled Markov chains in the limit of a large number of chains. Each chain reflects the stochastic evolution of one particle. The chains are coupled through the dependence of transition rates on the spatial distribution of particles in the various states. Our model is a caricature for medium access interactions in wireless local area networks. Our model is also applicable in the study of spread of epidemics in a network. The limiting process satisfies a deterministic ordinary differential equation called the McKean-Vlasov equation. When this differential equation has a unique globally asymptotically stable equilibrium, the spatial distribution converges weakly to this equilibrium. Using a control-theoretic approach, we examine the question of a large deviation from this equilibrium.