128 resultados para Rare event probability


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Upper bounds on the probability of error due to co-channel interference are proposed in this correspondence. The bounds are easy to compute and can be fairly tight.

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The paper outlines a technique for sensitive measurement of conduction phenomena in liquid dielectrics. The special features of this technique are the simplicity of the electrical system, the inexpensive instrumentation and the high accuracy. Detection, separation and analysis of a random function of current that is superimposed on the prebreakdown direct current forms the basis of this investigation. In this case, prebreakdown direct current is the output data of a test cell with large electrodes immersed in a liquid medium subjected to high direct voltages. Measurement of the probability-distribution function of a random fluctuating component of current provides a method that gives insight into the mechanism of conduction in a liquid medium subjected to high voltages and the processes that are responsible for the existence of the fluctuating component of the current.

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Surface oxidation of La, Ce, Sm and Tb metals has been investigated by He(II) ultraviolet photoelectron spectroscopy (u.p.s.) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (X.p.s.). Oxidation of La gives rise to La2O3 on the surface. While Ce2O3 appears to be the stable oxide on the surface, we find evidence for formation of CeO2 at high oxygen exposure. Valence band of Sm clearly shows the presence of both divalent and trivalent states due to interconfigurational fluctuation. Exposure of Sm to oxygen first depletes the divalent Sm at the surface. While Sm2O3 is the stable oxide on the surface of Sm, Tb2O3 is the stable oxide on the surface of Tb (and not any of the higher oxides).

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In this paper we consider the process of discovering frequent episodes in event sequences. The most computationally intensive part of this process is that of counting the frequencies of a set of candidate episodes. We present two new frequency counting algorithms for speeding up this part. These, referred to as non-overlapping and non-inteleaved frequency counts, are based on directly counting suitable subsets of the occurrences of an episode. Hence they are different from the frequency counts of Mannila et al [1], where they count the number of windows in which the episode occurs. Our new frequency counts offer a speed-up factor of 7 or more on real and synthetic datasets. We also show how the new frequency counts can be used when the events in episodes have time-durations as well.

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Discovering patterns in temporal data is an important task in Data Mining. A successful method for this was proposed by Mannila et al. [1] in 1997. In their framework, mining for temporal patterns in a database of sequences of events is done by discovering the so called frequent episodes. These episodes characterize interesting collections of events occurring relatively close to each other in some partial order. However, in this framework(and in many others for finding patterns in event sequences), the ordering of events in an event sequence is the only allowed temporal information. But there are many applications where the events are not instantaneous; they have time durations. Interesting episodesthat we want to discover may need to contain information regarding event durations etc. In this paper we extend Mannila et al.’s framework to tackle such issues. In our generalized formulation, episodes are defined so that much more temporal information about events can be incorporated into the structure of an episode. This significantly enhances the expressive capability of the rules that can be discovered in the frequent episode framework. We also present algorithms for discovering such generalized frequent episodes.

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Niche differentiation has been proposed as an explanation for rarity in species assemblages. To test this hypothesis requires quantifying the ecological similarity of species. This similarity can potentially be estimated by using phylogenetic relatedness. In this study, we predicted that if niche differentiation does explain the co-occurrence of rare and common species, then rare species should contribute greatly to the overall community phylogenetic diversity (PD), abundance will have phylogenetic signal, and common and rare species will be phylogenetically dissimilar. We tested these predictions by developing a novel method that integrates species rank abundance distributions with phylogenetic trees and trend analyses, to examine the relative contribution of individual species to the overall community PD. We then supplement this approach with analyses of phylogenetic signal in abundances and measures of phylogenetic similarity within and between rare and common species groups. We applied this analytical approach to 15 long-term temperate and tropical forest dynamics plots from around the world. We show that the niche differentiation hypothesis is supported in six of the nine gap-dominated forests but is rejected in the six disturbance-dominated and three gap-dominated forests. We also show that the three metrics utilized in this study each provide unique but corroborating information regarding the phylogenetic distribution of rarity in communities.

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We reconsider standard uniaxial fatigue test data obtained from handbooks. Many S-N curve fits to such data represent the median life and exclude load-dependent variance in life. Presently available approaches for incorporating probabilistic aspects explicitly within the S-N curves have some shortcomings, which we discuss. We propose a new linear S-N fit with a prespecified failure probability, load-dependent variance, and reasonable behavior at extreme loads. We fit our parameters using maximum likelihood, show the reasonableness of the fit using Q-Q plots, and obtain standard error estimates via Monte Carlo simulations. The proposed fitting method may be used for obtaining S-N curves from the same data as already available, with the same mathematical form, but in cases in which the failure probability is smaller, say, 10 % instead of 50 %, and in which the fitted line is not parallel to the 50 % (median) line.

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The reaction of a tridentate Schiff base ligand HL (2-(3-dimethylaminopropylimino)-methyl]-phenol) with Ni(II) acetate or perchlorate salts in the presence of azide as coligand has led to two new Ni(II) complexes of formulas Ni3L2(OAc)(2)(mu(1,1)-N-3)(2)(H2O)(2)]center dot 2H(2)O (1) and Ni2L2(mu(1,1)-N-3) (mu(1,3)-N-3)](n)(2). Single crystal X-ray structures show that complex 1 is a linear trinuclear Ni(II) compound containing a mu(2)-phenwddo, an end-on (EO) azido and a syn-syn acetato bridge between the terminal and the central Ni(II) ions. Complex 2 can be viewed as a one-dimensional (1D) chain in which the triply bridged (di-mu(2)-phenoxido and EO azido) dimeric Ni-2 units are linked to each other in a zigzag pattern by a single end-to-end (EE) azido bridge. Variable-temperature magnetic susceptibility studies indicate the presence of moderate ferromagnetic exchange coupling in complex 1 with J value of 16.51(6) cm(-1). The magnetic behavior of 2 can be fitted in an alternating ferro- and antiferromagnetic model J(FM) = +34.2(2.8) cm(-1) and J(AF) = -21.6(1.1) cm(-1)] corresponding to the triple bridged dinuclear core and EE azido bridge respectively. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations were performed to corroborate the magnetic results of 1 and 2. The contributions of the different bridges toward magnetic interactions in both compounds have also been calculated.

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Mountain waves in the stratosphere have been observed over elevated topographies using both nadir-looking and limb-viewing satellites. However, the characteristics of mountain waves generated over the Himalayan Mountain range and the adjacent Tibetan Plateau are relatively less explored. The present study reports on three-dimensional (3-D) properties of a mountain wave event that occurred over the western Himalayan region on 9 December 2008. Observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on board the Aqua and Microwave Limb Sounder on board the Aura satellites are used to delineate the wave properties. The observed wave properties such as horizontal (lambda(x), lambda(y)) and vertical (lambda(z)) wavelengths are 276 km (zonal), 289 km (meridional), and 25 km, respectively. A good agreement is found between the observed and modeled/analyzed vertical wavelength for a stationary gravity wave determined using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis winds. The analysis of both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and MERRA winds shows that the waves are primarily forced by strong flow across the topography. Using the 3-D properties of waves and the corrected temperature amplitudes, we estimated wave momentum fluxes of the order of similar to 0.05 Pa, which is in agreement with large-amplitude mountain wave events reported elsewhere. In this regard, the present study is considered to be very much informative to the gravity wave drag schemes employed in current general circulation models for this region.

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Sapphirine + quartz and orthopyroxene + sillimanite occur in garnet from an Mg-Al granulite from the Central Zone of the Limpopo Complex in South Africa. Textural evidence and a chemical gradient in garnet between the zones preserving the inclusions argue for the formation of sapphirine + quartz after orthopyroxene + sillimanite. Petrological observations, pressure-temperature phase diagrams, and compositional and model proportion results on isopleths indicate the sapphirine + quartz + garnet + orthopyroxene (high-Al) assemblage as the peak metamorphic assemblage (similar to 1050 degrees C at similar to 8.5 kbars), whereas orthopyroxene (low-Al) + sillimanite represents the prograde stage (at ca. 900 degrees C at similar to 8.5 kbars). Our report of these two diagnostic ultrahigh-temperature mineral assemblages in garnet from an Mg-Al granulite is unique, given the rare occurrence of sapphirine + quartz postdating orthopyroxene + sillimanite assemblage in granulites.

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There have been several studies on the performance of TCP controlled transfers over an infrastructure IEEE 802.11 WLAN, assuming perfect channel conditions. In this paper, we develop an analytical model for the throughput of TCP controlled file transfers over the IEEE 802.11 DCF with different packet error probabilities for the stations, accounting for the effect of packet drops on the TCP window. Our analysis proceeds by combining two models: one is an extension of the usual TCP-over-DCF model for an infrastructure WLAN, where the throughput of a station depends on the probability that the head-of-the-line packet at the Access Point belongs to that station; the second is a model for the TCP window process for connections with different drop probabilities. Iterative calculations between these models yields the head-of-the-line probabilities, and then, performance measures such as the throughputs and packet failure probabilities can be derived. We find that, due to MAC layer retransmissions, packet losses are rare even with high channel error probabilities and the stations obtain fair throughputs even when some of them have packet error probabilities as high as 0.1 or 0.2. For some restricted settings we are also able to model tail-drop loss at the AP. Although involving many approximations, the model captures the system behavior quite accurately, as compared with simulations.

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We study the tradeoff between the average error probability and the average queueing delay of messages which randomly arrive to the transmitter of a point-to-point discrete memoryless channel that uses variable rate fixed codeword length random coding. Bounds to the exponential decay rate of the average error probability with average queueing delay in the regime of large average delay are obtained. Upper and lower bounds to the optimal average delay for a given average error probability constraint are presented. We then formulate a constrained Markov decision problem for characterizing the rate of transmission as a function of queue size given an average error probability constraint. Using a Lagrange multiplier the constrained Markov decision problem is then converted to a problem of minimizing the average cost for a Markov decision problem. A simple heuristic policy is proposed which approximately achieves the optimal average cost.

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Accurate supersymmetric spectra are required to confront data from direct and indirect searches of supersymmetry. SuSeFLAV is a numerical tool capable of computing supersymmetric spectra precisely for various supersymmetric breaking scenarios applicable even in the presence of flavor violation. The program solves MSSM RGEs with complete 3 x 3 flavor mixing at 2-loop level and one loop finite threshold corrections to all MSSM parameters by incorporating radiative electroweak symmetry breaking conditions. The program also incorporates the Type-I seesaw mechanism with three massive right handed neutrinos at user defined mass scales and mixing. It also computes branching ratios of flavor violating processes such as l(j) -> l(i)gamma, l(j) -> 3 l(i), b -> s gamma and supersymmetric contributions to flavor conserving quantities such as (g(mu) - 2). A large choice of executables suitable for various operations of the program are provided. Program summary Program title: SuSeFLAV Catalogue identifier: AEOD_v1_0 Program summary URL: http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEOD_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: GNU General Public License No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 76552 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 582787 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Fortran 95. Computer: Personal Computer, Work-Station. Operating system: Linux, Unix. Classification: 11.6. Nature of problem: Determination of masses and mixing of supersymmetric particles within the context of MSSM with conserved R-parity with and without the presence of Type-I seesaw. Inter-generational mixing is considered while calculating the mass spectrum. Supersymmetry breaking parameters are taken as inputs at a high scale specified by the mechanism of supersymmetry breaking. RG equations including full inter-generational mixing are then used to evolve these parameters up to the electroweak breaking scale. The low energy supersymmetric spectrum is calculated at the scale where successful radiative electroweak symmetry breaking occurs. At weak scale standard model fermion masses, gauge couplings are determined including the supersymmetric radiative corrections. Once the spectrum is computed, the program proceeds to various lepton flavor violating observables (e.g., BR(mu -> e gamma), BR(tau -> mu gamma) etc.) at the weak scale. Solution method: Two loop RGEs with full 3 x 3 flavor mixing for all supersymmetry breaking parameters are used to compute the low energy supersymmetric mass spectrum. An adaptive step size Runge-Kutta method is used to solve the RGEs numerically between the high scale and the electroweak breaking scale. Iterative procedure is employed to get the consistent radiative electroweak symmetry breaking condition. The masses of the supersymmetric particles are computed at 1-loop order. The third generation SM particles and the gauge couplings are evaluated at the 1-loop order including supersymmetric corrections. A further iteration of the full program is employed such that the SM masses and couplings are consistent with the supersymmetric particle spectrum. Additional comments: Several executables are presented for the user. Running time: 0.2 s on a Intel(R) Core(TM) i5 CPU 650 with 3.20 GHz. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Earthquakes triggered by artificial reservoirs have been documented for more than seven decades and the processes leading to this phenomenon are fairly well understood. Larger among such earthquakes are known to occur within a few years of reservoir impoundment and usually the activity decreases with time. A documented example of Reservoir Triggered Seismicity (RTS), the Idukki Reservoir in Kerala, south India, impounded in 1975, is an exception wherein the triggered activity has been revived in 2011, nearly 35 years after the initial burst of activity in 1977, two years after the dam was filled. The magnitude of the largest shock in the 2011 sequence exceeded that of the previously documented largest microearthquake. Presence of faults that are close to failure and vulnerable to increase in pore pressure due to reservoir loading or increased rainfall, or a combination of both seems to trigger shocks in this area. The renewed burst of earthquakes after a prolonged period of reduced activity at the Idukki Reservoir is a rare example of RTS. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.