Challenges in vulnerability assessment of forests under climate change

Forest-management goals in the context of climate change are to reduce the adverse impact of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystem services and carbon stocks. For developing an effective adaptation strategy, knowledge on nature and sources of vulnerability of forests is necessary to conserve or enhance carbon sinks. However, assessing the vulnerability of forest ecosystems is a challenging task, as the mechanisms that determine vulnerability cannot be observed directly. In this article, we list the challenges in forest vulnerability assessments and propose an assessment of inherent vulnerability by using process-based indicators under the current climate. We also suggest periodic assessment of vulnerability, which is necessary to review adaptation strategies for the management of forests and forest carbon stocks.

Regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands

This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U-2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India. Results from the downscaling model suggest that the monthly rainfall is likely to increase in the reservoir command area. RH, Tmax and Tmin are also projected to increase with small changes in U-2. Consequently, the reference evapotranspiration, modeled by the Penman-Monteith equation, is predicted to increase. The irrigation requirements are assessed on monthly scale at nine selected locations encompassing the Bhadra reservoir command area. The irrigation requirements are projected to increase, in most cases, suggesting that the effect of projected increase in rainfall on the irrigation demands is offset by the effect due to projected increase/change in other meteorological variables (viz., Tmax and Tmin, solar radiation, RH and U-2). The irrigation demand assessment study carried out at a river basin will be useful for future irrigation management systems. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

X-ray diffraction and Mossbauer spectroscopy studies of cementite dissolution in cold-drawn pearlitic steel

Cementite dissolution in cold-drawn pearlitic steel (0.8 wt.% carbon) wires has been studied by quantitative X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Mossbauer spectroscopy up to drawing strain 1.4. Quantification of cementite-phase fraction by Rietveld analysis has confirmed more than 50% dissolution of cementite phase at drawing strain 1.4. It is found that the lattice parameter of the ferrite phase determined by Rietveld refinement procedure remains nearly unchanged even after cementite dissolution. This confirms that the carbon atoms released after cementite dissolution do not dissolve in the ferrite lattice as Fe-C interstitial solid solution. Detailed analysis of broadening of XRD line profiles for the ferrite phase shows high density of dislocations (approximate to 10(15)/m(2)) in the ferrite matrix at drawing strain 1.4. The results suggest a dominant role of 111 screw dislocations in the cementite dissolution process. Post-deformation heat treatment leads to partial annihilation of dislocations and restoration of cementite phase. Based on these experimental observations, further supplemented by TEM studies, we have suggested an alternative thermodynamic mechanism of the dissolution process.

Analytical solutions for movement of cold water thermal front in a heterogeneous geothermal reservoir

In the present study an analytical model has been presented to describe the transient temperature distribution and advancement of the thermal front generated due to the reinjection of heat depleted water in a heterogeneous geothermal reservoir. One dimensional heat transport equation in porous media with advection and longitudinal heat conduction has been solved analytically using Laplace transform technique in a semi infinite medium. The heterogeneity of the porous medium is expressed by the spatial variation of the flow velocity and the longitudinal effective thermal conductivity of the medium. A simpler solution is also derived afterwards neglecting the longitudinal conduction depending on the situation where the contribution to the transient heat transport phenomenon in the porous media is negligible. Solution for a homogeneous aquifer with constant values of the rock and fluid parameters is also derived with an aim to compare the results with that of the heterogeneous one. The effect of some of the parameters involved, on the transient heat transport phenomenon is assessed by observing the variation of the results with different magnitudes of those parameters. Results prove the heterogeneity of the medium, the flow velocity and the longitudinal conductivity to have great influence and porosity to have negligible effect on the transient temperature distribution. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Missing (in-situ) snow cover data hampers climate change and runoff studies in the Greater Himalayas

The Himalayas are presently holding the largest ice masses outside the polar regions and thus (temporarily) store important freshwater resources. In contrast to the contemplation of glaciers, the role of runoff from snow cover has received comparably little attention in the past, although (i) its contribution is thought to be at least equally or even more important than that of ice melt in many Himalayan catchments and (ii) climate change is expected to have widespread and significant consequences on snowmelt runoff. Here, we show that change assessment of snowmelt runoff and its timing is not as straightforward as often postulated, mainly as larger partial pressure of H2O, CO2, CH4, and other greenhouse gases might increase net long-wave input for snowmelt quite significantly in a future atmosphere. In addition, changes in the short-wave energy balance such as the pollution of the snow cover through black carbon or the sensible or latent heat contribution to snowmelt are likely to alter future snowmelt and runoff characteristics as well. For the assessment of snow cover extent and depletion, but also for its monitoring over the extremely large areas of the Himalayas, remote sensing has been used in the past and is likely to become even more important in the future. However, for the calibration and validation of remotely-sensed data, and even-more so in light of possible changes in snow-cover energy balance, we strongly call for more in-situ measurements across the Himalayas, in particular for daily data on new snow and snow cover water equivalent, or the respective energy balance components. Moreover, data should be made accessible to the scientific community, so that the latter can more accurately estimate climate change impacts on Himalayan snow cover and possible consequences thereof on runoff. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections

The impact of future climate change on the glaciers in the Karakoram and Himalaya (KH) is investigated using CMIP5 multi-model temperature and precipitation projections, and a relationship between glacial accumulation-area ratio and mass balance developed for the region based on the last 30 to 40 years of observational data. We estimate that the current glacial mass balance (year 2000) for the entire KH region is -6.6 +/- 1 Gta(-1), which decreases about sixfold to -35 +/- 2 Gta(-1) by the 2080s under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5. However, under the low emission scenario of RCP2.6 the glacial mass loss only doubles to -12 +/- 2 Gta(-1) by the 2080s. We also find that 10.6 and 27 % of the glaciers could face `eventual disappearance' by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, underscoring the threat to water resources under high emission scenarios.

Analytical solutions for transient temperature distribution in a geothermal reservoir due to cold water injection

An analytical solution to describe the transient temperature distribution in a geothermal reservoir in response to injection of cold water is presented. The reservoir is composed of a confined aquifer, sandwiched between rocks of different thermo-geological properties. The heat transport processes considered are advection, longitudinal conduction in the geothermal aquifer, and the conductive heat transfer to the underlying and overlying rocks of different geological properties. The one-dimensional heat transfer equation has been solved using the Laplace transform with the assumption of constant density and thermal properties of both rock and fluid. Two simple solutions are derived afterwards, first neglecting the longitudinal conductive heat transport and then heat transport to confining rocks. Results show that heat loss to the confining rock layers plays a vital role in slowing down the cooling of the reservoir. The influence of some parameters, e.g. the volumetric injection rate, the longitudinal thermal conductivity and the porosity of the porous media, on the transient heat transport phenomenon is judged by observing the variation of the transient temperature distribution with different values of the parameters. The effects of injection rate and thermal conductivity have been found to be profound on the results.

Climate change scenarios of surface solar radiation in data sparse regions: a case study in Malaprabha River Basin, India

A variety of methods are available to estimate future solar radiation (SR) scenarios at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment. However, there are no clear guidelines available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. Three methodologies to guide the estimation of SR are discussed in this study, namely: Case 1: SR is measured, Case 2: SR is measured but sparse and Case 3: SR is not measured. In Case 1, future SR scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies that transfer the simulated large-scale information of global climate models to a local scale ( measurements). In Case 2, the SR was first estimated at the local scale for a longer time period using sparse measured records, and then future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. In Case 3: the SR was first estimated at a regional scale for a longer time period using complete or sparse measured records of SR from which SR at the local scale was estimated. Finally, the future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. The lack of observed SR data, especially in developing countries, has hindered various climate change impact studies. Hence, this was further elaborated by applying the Case 3 methodology to a semi-arid Malaprabha reservoir catchment in southern India. A support vector machine was used in downscaling SR. Future monthly scenarios of SR were estimated from simulations of third-generation Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3) for various SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT). Results indicated a projected decrease of 0.4 to 12.2 W m(-2) yr(-1) in SR during the period 2001-2100 across the 4 scenarios. SR was calculated using the modified Hargreaves method. The decreasing trends for the future were in agreement with the simulations of SR from the CGCM3 model directly obtained for the 4 scenarios.

Hydrographical characteristics and oxygen isotopic signatures of water in a coastal environment (Mangalore) along the southeastern Arabian Sea

Coastal marine environments are important links between the continents and the open ocean. The coast off Mangalore forms part of the upwelling zone along the southeastern Arabian Sea. The temperature, salinity, density, dissolved oxygen and stable oxygen isotope ratio (delta O-18) of surface waters as well as those of bottom waters off coastal Mangalore were studied every month from October 2010 to May 2011. The coastal waters were stratified in October and November due to precipitation and runoff. The region was characterised by upwelled bottom waters in October, whereas the region exhibited a temperature inversion in November. The surface and bottom waters presented almost uniform properties from December until April. The coastal waters were observed to be most dense in January and May. Comparatively cold and poorly oxygenated bottom waters during the May sampling indicated the onset of upwelling along the region. delta O-18 of the coastal waters successfully documented the observed variations in the hydrographical characteristics of the Mangalore coast during the monthly sampling period. We also noted that the monthly variability in the properties of the coastal waters of Mangalore was related to the hydrographical characteristics of the adjacent open ocean inferred from satellite-derived surface winds, sea surface height anomaly data and sea surface temperatures.

Loss of frugivore seed dispersal services under climate change

The capacity of species to track shifting climates into the future will strongly influence outcomes for biodiversity under a rapidly changing climate. However, we know remarkably little about the dispersal abilities of most species and how these may be influenced by climate change. Here we show that climate change is projected to substantially reduce the seed dispersal services provided by frugivorous vertebrates in rainforests across the Australian Wet Tropics. Our model projections show reductions in both median and long-distance seed dispersal, which may markedly reduce the capacity of many rainforest plant species to track shifts in suitable habitat under climate change. However, our analyses suggest that active management to maintain the abundances of a small set of important frugivores under climate change could markedly reduce the projected loss of seed dispersal services and facilitate shifting distributions of rainforest plant species.

Study of liquid fuel transport in a small carburetted engine in the context of cold-start HC emission control

In the present study, a detailed visualization of the transport of fuel film has been performed in a small carburetted engine with a transparent manifold at the exit of the carburettor. The presence of fuel film is observed significantly on the lower half of the manifold at idling, while at load conditions, the film is found to be distributed all throughout the manifold walls. Quantitative measurement of the fuel film in a specially-designed manifold of square cross section has also been performed using the planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) technique. The measured fuel film thickness is observed to be of the order of 1 nun at idling, and in the range of 0.1 to 0.4 mm over the range of load and speed studied. These engine studies are complemented by experiments conducted in a carburettor rig to study the state of the fuel exiting the carburettor. Laser-based Particle/Droplet Image Analysis (PDIA) technique is used to identify fuel droplets and ligaments and estimate droplet diameters. At a throttle position corresponding to idling, the fuel exiting the carburettor is found to consist of very fine droplets of size less than 15 mu m and large fuel ligaments associated with length scales of the order of 500 mu m and higher. For a constant pressure difference across the carburettor, the fuel consists of droplets with an SMD of the order of 30 mu m. Also, the effect of liquid fuel film on the cold start HC emissions is studied. Based on the understanding obtained from these studies, strategies such as manifold heating and varying carburettor main jet nozzle diameter are implemented. These are observed to reduce emissions under both idling and varying load conditions.

Texture transition in cold-rolled nickel-40 wt.% cobalt alloy

The micromechanical aspects of rolling texture development in Ni-40 wt.% Co alloy during very large reductions (up to epsilon(t) = 3.9) have been studied. The alloy showed a typical Cu-type texture up to a true strain of epsilon(t) = 3; however, the texture undergoes an abrupt transition to Bs-type on further rolling to epsilon(t) approximate to 4. (The Bs-type texture, here, comprises almost equal fractions of Goss and Bs components.) Microstructural observations, at early stages, show that deformation is accommodated entirely by slip, and very little presence of deformation twinning is observed to explain the texture transition. However, at much higher reduction levels, micrographs show a high fraction of Cu-type shear bands. These bands are predominantly found in Cu-oriented grains and the crystallites inside the shear bands are preferentially oriented towards Goss, which could explain the final texture evolution. (C) 2014 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ranking of global climate models for India using multicriterion analysis

Eleven GCMs (BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1) were evaluated for India (covering 73 grid points of 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for the climate variable `precipitation rate' using 5 performance indicators. Performance indicators used were the correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square error, absolute normalised mean bias error, average absolute relative error and skill score. We used a nested bias correction methodology to remove the systematic biases in GCM simulations. The Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of these 5 indicators. Ranks of the 11 GCMs were obtained through a multicriterion decision-making outranking method, PROMETHEE-2 (Preference Ranking Organisation Method of Enrichment Evaluation). An equal weight scenario (assigning 0.2 weight for each indicator) was also used to rank the GCMs. An effort was also made to rank GCMs for 4 river basins (Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi and Cauvery) in peninsular India. The upper Malaprabha catchment in Karnataka, India, was chosen to demonstrate the Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the association between the ranking patterns. Our results suggest that the ensemble of GFDL2.0, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0, UKMO-HADCM3, MPIECHAM4 and UKMO-HADGEM1 is suitable for India. The methodology proposed can be extended to rank GCMs for any selected region.