Assessing GCM Convergence for India Using the Variable Convergence Score

General circulation models (GCMs) use transient climate simulations to predict climate conditions in the future. Coarse-grid resolutions and process uncertainties necessitate the use of downscaling models to simulate precipitation. However, in the downscaling models, with multiple GCMs now available, selecting an atmospheric variable from a particular model which is representative of the ensemble mean becomes an important consideration. The variable convergence score (VCS) provides a simple yet meaningful approach to address this issue, providing a mechanism to evaluate variables against each other with respect to the stability they exhibit in future climate simulations. In this study, VCS methodology is applied to 10 atmospheric variables of particular interest in downscaling precipitation over India and also on a regional basis. The nested bias-correction methodology is used to remove the systematic biases in the GCMs simulations, and a single VCS curve is developed for the entire country. The generated VCS curve is expected to assist in quantifying the variable performance across different GCMs, thus reducing the uncertainty in climate impact-assessment studies. The results indicate higher consistency across GCMs for pressure and temperature, and lower consistency for precipitation and related variables. Regional assessments, while broadly consistent with the overall results, indicate low convergence in atmospheric attributes for the Northeastern parts of India.

Imprints of Archean to Neoproterozoic crustal processes in the Madurai Block, Southern India

Madurai Block, the largest crustal block in the Southern Granulite Terrane (SGT) of Peninsular India, preserves the imprints of multistage tectonic evolution. Here, we present U-Pb and Hf isotope data on zircons from a charnockite-granite suite in the north-western part of this block. The oscillatory zoning, and the LREE to HREE enriched patterns of the zircons with positive Ce and negative Eu anomalies suggest that the zircon cores are of magmatic origin, with ages in the range of 2634-2435 Ma implying Neoarchean-Paleoproterozoic magmatism followed by subsequent metamorphism and protocontinent formation in the north-western part of the Madurai Block. A regional 550-500 Ma metamorphic overprint is also preserved in the zircons coinciding with the final amalgamation of the Gondwana supercontinent. The Hf isotopic data suggest that the granite and charnockite were derived from isotopically heterogeneous juvenile crustal domains and the charnockites show a significant contribution of mantle-derived components. Therefore, the Hf isotopic data reflect mixing of crustal and mantle-derived sources for the generation of Neoarchean crust in the north-western Madurai Block, possibly in a suprasubduction zone setting during continent building processes. (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrographical characteristics and oxygen isotopic signatures of water in a coastal environment (Mangalore) along the southeastern Arabian Sea

Coastal marine environments are important links between the continents and the open ocean. The coast off Mangalore forms part of the upwelling zone along the southeastern Arabian Sea. The temperature, salinity, density, dissolved oxygen and stable oxygen isotope ratio (delta O-18) of surface waters as well as those of bottom waters off coastal Mangalore were studied every month from October 2010 to May 2011. The coastal waters were stratified in October and November due to precipitation and runoff. The region was characterised by upwelled bottom waters in October, whereas the region exhibited a temperature inversion in November. The surface and bottom waters presented almost uniform properties from December until April. The coastal waters were observed to be most dense in January and May. Comparatively cold and poorly oxygenated bottom waters during the May sampling indicated the onset of upwelling along the region. delta O-18 of the coastal waters successfully documented the observed variations in the hydrographical characteristics of the Mangalore coast during the monthly sampling period. We also noted that the monthly variability in the properties of the coastal waters of Mangalore was related to the hydrographical characteristics of the adjacent open ocean inferred from satellite-derived surface winds, sea surface height anomaly data and sea surface temperatures.

Slow Slip Acceleration beneath Andaman Islands Triggered by the 11 April 2012 Indian Ocean Earthquakes

The M-w 8.6 and 8.2 strike-slip earthquakes that struck the northeast Indian Ocean on 11 April 2012 resulted in coseismic deformation both at near and distant sites. The slip distribution, deduced using seismic-wave analysis for the orthogonal faults that ruptured during these earthquakes, is sufficient to predict the coseismic displacements at the Global Positioning System (GPS) sites, such as NTUS, PALK, and CUSV, but fall short at four continuous sites in the Andaman Islands region. Slip modeling, for times prior to the events, suggests that the lower portion of the thrust fault beneath the Andaman Islands has been slipping at least at the rate of 40 cm/yr, in response to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman coseismic stress change. Modeling of GPS displacements suggests that the en echelon and orthogonal fault ruptures of the 2012 intraplate oceanic earthquakes could have possibly accelerated the ongoing slow slip, along the lower portion of the thrust fault beneath the islands with a month-long slip of 4-10 cm. The misfit to the coseismic GPS displacements along the Andaman Islands could be improved with a better source model, assuming that no local process contributed to this anomaly.

Current kinematics and dynamics of Africa and the East African Rift System

Although the East African Rift System (EARS) is an archetype continental rift, the forces driving its evolution remain debated. Some contend buoyancy forces arising from gravitational potential energy (GPE) gradients within the lithosphere drive rifting. Others argue for a major role of the diverging mantle flow associated with the African Superplume. Here we quantify the forces driving present-day continental rifting in East Africa by (1) solving the depth averaged 3-D force balance equations for 3-D deviatoric stress associated with GPE, (2) inverting for a stress field boundary condition that we interpret as originating from large-scale mantle tractions, (3) calculating dynamic velocities due to lithospheric buoyancy forces, lateral viscosity variations, and velocity boundary conditions, and (4) calculating dynamic velocities that result from the stress response of horizontal mantle tractions acting on a viscous lithosphere in Africa and surroundings. We find deviatoric stress associated with lithospheric GPE gradients are similar to 8-20 MPa in EARS, and the minimum deviatoric stress resulting from basal shear is similar to 1.6 MPa along the EARS. Our dynamic velocity calculations confirm that a force contribution from GPE gradients alone is sufficient to drive Nubia-Somalia divergence and that additional forcing from horizontal mantle tractions overestimates surface kinematics. Stresses from GPE gradients appear sufficient to sustain present-day rifting in East Africa; however, they are lower than the vertically integrated strength of the lithosphere along most of the EARS. This indicates additional processes are required to initiate rupture of continental lithosphere, but once it is initiated, lithospheric buoyancy forces are enough to maintain rifting.

Ranking of global climate models for India using multicriterion analysis

Eleven GCMs (BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1) were evaluated for India (covering 73 grid points of 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for the climate variable `precipitation rate' using 5 performance indicators. Performance indicators used were the correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square error, absolute normalised mean bias error, average absolute relative error and skill score. We used a nested bias correction methodology to remove the systematic biases in GCM simulations. The Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of these 5 indicators. Ranks of the 11 GCMs were obtained through a multicriterion decision-making outranking method, PROMETHEE-2 (Preference Ranking Organisation Method of Enrichment Evaluation). An equal weight scenario (assigning 0.2 weight for each indicator) was also used to rank the GCMs. An effort was also made to rank GCMs for 4 river basins (Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi and Cauvery) in peninsular India. The upper Malaprabha catchment in Karnataka, India, was chosen to demonstrate the Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the association between the ranking patterns. Our results suggest that the ensemble of GFDL2.0, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0, UKMO-HADCM3, MPIECHAM4 and UKMO-HADGEM1 is suitable for India. The methodology proposed can be extended to rank GCMs for any selected region.

Contrasting geochemical signatures on land from the Middle and Late Permian extinction events

The end of the Palaeozoic is marked by two mass-extinction events during the Middle Permian (Capitanian) and the Late Permian (Changhsingian). Given similarities between the two events in geochemical signatures, such as large magnitude negative C-13 anomalies, sedimentological signatures such as claystone breccias, and the approximate contemporaneous emplacement of large igneous provinces, many authors have sought a common causal mechanism. Here, a new high-resolution continental record of the Capitanian event from Portal Mountain, Antarctica, is compared with previously published Changhsingian records of geochemical signatures of weathering intensity and palaeoclimatic change. Geochemical means of discriminating sedimentary provenance (Ti/Al, U/Th and La/Ce ratios) all indicate a common provenance for the Portal Mountain sediments and associated palaeosols, so changes spanning the Capitanian extinction represent changes in weathering intensity rather than sediment source. Proxies for weathering intensity chemical index of alteration, W and rare earth element accumulation all decline across the Capitanian extinction event at Portal Mountain, which is in contrast to the increased weathering recorded globally at the Late Permian extinction. Furthermore, palaeoclimatic proxies are consistent with unchanging or cooler climatic conditions throughout the Capitanian event, which contrasts with Changhsingian records that all indicate a significant syn-extinction and post-extinction series of greenhouse warming events. Although both the Capitanian and Changhsingian event records indicate significant redox shifts, palaeosol geochemistry of the Changhsingian event indicates more reducing conditions, whereas the new Capitanian record of reduced trace metal abundances (Cr, Cu, Ni and Ce) indicates more oxidizing conditions. Taken together, the differences in weathering intensity, redox and the lack of evidence for significant climatic change in the new record suggest that the Capitanian mass extinction was not triggered by dyke injection of coal-beds, as in the Changhsingian extinction, and may instead have been triggered directly by the Emeishan large igneous province or by the interaction of Emeishan basalts with platform carbonates.

The role of buoyancy in polarity reversals of the geodynamo

We investigate polarity reversals in the geodynamo using a rotating, convection-driven dynamo model. As the flow in rapidly rotating convection is dominated by columns aligned with the axis of rotation, the focus is on the dynamics of columnar vortices. By studying the growth of a seed magnetic field to a stable axial dipole field, we show that the magnetic field acts in ways that significantly enhance the relative helicity between cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices. This flow asymmetry is the hallmark of a dipolar dynamo. Strong buoyancy, on the other hand, offsets the effect of the magnetic field, establishing parity between positive and negative vortices. As the dipole field is deprived of the helicity required to support itself, the dynamo is pushed into a reversing state. This is a likely regime for polarity reversals in the Earth's core. The integral lengthscale at which buoyancy injects energy is not significantly different from the convective flow lengthscale, which implies that buoyancy does not feed vortices at the small scales where non-linear inertia is present. The lengthscale at which the Lorentz force acts in the reversing dynamo is small, which may allow the passive presence of non-linear inertia in the small scales.

Sheltered coastal environments as archives of paleo-tsunami deposits: Observations from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

The 2004 earthquake left several traces of coseismic land deformation and tsunami deposits, both on the islands along the plate boundary and distant shores of the Indian Ocean rim countries. Researchers are now exploring these sites to develop a chronology of past events. Where the coastal regions are also inundated by storm surges, there is an additional challenge to discriminate between the deposits formed by these two processes. Paleo-tsunami research relies largely on finding deposits where preservation potential is high and storm surge origin can be excluded. During the past decade of our work along the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the east coast of India, we have observed that the 2004 tsunami deposits are best preserved in lagoons, inland streams and also on elevated terraces. Chronological evidence for older events obtained from such sites is better correlated with those from Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia, reiterating their usefulness in tsunami geology studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lineage delimitation and description of nine new species of bush frogs (Anura: Raorchestes, Rhacophoridae) from the Western Ghats Escarpment

Bush frogs of the genus Raorchestes are distributed mainly in the Western Ghats Escarpment of Peninsular India. The inventory of species in this genus is incomplete and there is ambiguity in the systematic status of species recognized by morphological criteria. To address the dual problem of taxon sampling and systematic uncertainty in bush frogs, we used a large-scale spatial sampling design, explicitly incorporating the geographic and ecological heterogeneity of the Western Ghats. We then used a hierarchical multi-criteria approach by combining mitochondrial phylogeny, genetic distance, geographic range, morphology and advertisement call to delimit bush frog lineages. Our analyses revealed the existence of a large number of new lineages with varying levels of genetic divergence. Here, we provide diagnoses and descriptions for nine lineages that exhibit divergence across multiple axes. The discovery of new lineages that exhibit high divergence across wide ranges of elevation and across the major massifs highlights the large gaps in historical sampling. These discoveries underscore the significance of addressing inadequate knowledge of species distribution, namely the ``Wallacean shortfall'', in addressing the problem of taxon sampling and unknown diversity in tropical hotspots. A biogeographically informed sampling and analytical approach was critical in detecting and delineating lineages in a consistent manner across the genus. Through increased taxon sampling, we were also able to discern a number of well-supported sub-clades that were either unresolved or absent in earlier phylogenetic reconstructions and identify a number of shallow divergent lineages which require further examination for assessment of their taxonomic status.

Diurnal and seasonal variation of mixing ratio and delta C-13 of air CO2 observed at an urban station Bangalore, India

We present here observations on diurnal and seasonal variation of mixing ratio and delta C-13 of air CO2, from an urban station-Bangalore (BLR), India, monitored between October 2008 and December 2011. On a diurnal scale, higher mixing ratio with depleted delta C-13 of air CO2 was found for the samples collected during early morning compared to the samples collected during late afternoon. On a seasonal scale, mixing ratio was found to be higher for dry summer months (April-May) and lower for southwest monsoon months (June-July). The maximum enrichment in delta C-13 of air CO2 (-8.04 +/- 0.02aEuro degrees) was seen in October, then delta C-13 started depleting and maximum depletion (-9.31 +/- 0.07aEuro degrees) was observed during dry summer months. Immediately after that an increasing trend in delta C-13 was monitored coincidental with the advancement of southwest monsoon months and maximum enrichment was seen again in October. Although a similar pattern in seasonal variation was observed for the three consecutive years, the dry summer months of 2011 captured distinctly lower amplitude in both the mixing ratio and delta C-13 of air CO2 compared to the dry summer months of 2009 and 2010. This was explained with reduced biomass burning and increased productivity associated with prominent La Nina condition. While compared with the observations from the nearest coastal and open ocean stations-Cabo de Rama (CRI) and Seychelles (SEY), BLR being located within an urban region captured higher amplitude of seasonal variation. The average delta C-13 value of the end member source CO2 was identified based on both diurnal and seasonal scale variation. The delta C-13 value of source CO2 (-24.9 +/- 3aEuro degrees) determined based on diurnal variation was found to differ drastically from the source value (-14.6 +/- 0.7aEuro degrees) identified based on seasonal scale variation. The source CO2 identified based on diurnal variation incorporated both early morning and late afternoon sample; whereas, the source CO2 identified based on seasonal variation included only afternoon samples. Thus, it is evident from the study that sampling timing is one of the important factors while characterizing the composition of end member source CO2 for a particular station. The difference in delta C-13 value of source CO2 obtained based on both diurnal and seasonal variation might be due to possible contribution from cement industry along with fossil fuel / biomass burning as predominant sources for the station along with differential meteorological conditions prevailed.

Estimates of site response based on spectral ratio between horizontal and vertical components of ambient vibrations in the source zone of 2001 Bhuj earthquake

We investigated the site response characteristics of Kachchh rift basin over the meizoseismal area of the 2001, Mw 7.6, Bhuj (NW India) earthquake using the spectral ratio of the horizontal and vertical components of ambient vibrations. Using the available knowledge on the regional geology of Kachchh and well documented ground responses from the earthquake, we evaluated the H/V curves pattern across sediment filled valleys and uplifted areas generally characterized by weathered sandstones. Although our HIV curves showed a largely fuzzy nature, we found that the hierarchical clustering method was useful for comparing large numbers of response curves and identifying the areas with similar responses. Broad and plateau shaped peaks of a cluster of curves within the valley region suggests the possibility of basin effects within valley. Fundamental resonance frequencies (f(0)) are found in the narrow range of 0.1-2.3 Hz and their spatial distribution demarcated the uplifted regions from the valleys. In contrary, low HIV peak amplitudes (A(0) = 2-4) were observed on the uplifted areas and varying values (2-9) were found within valleys. Compared to the amplification factors, the liquefaction indices (kg) were able to effectively indicate the areas which experienced severe liquefaction. The amplification ranges obtained in the current study were found to be comparable to those obtained from earthquake data for a limited number of seismic stations located on uplifted areas; however the values on the valley region may not reflect their true amplification potential due to basin effects. Our study highlights the practical usefulness as well as limitations of the HIV method to study complex geological settings as Kachchh. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tectono-geomorphic and environmental set-up deduced during deposition of Mio-Pleistocene sediments in NW Himalaya, India

Detailed pedofacies characterization along-with lithofacies investigations of the Mio-Pleistocene Siwalik sediments exposed in the Ramnagar sub-basin have been studied so as to elucidate variability in time and space of fluvial processes and the role of intra- and extra-basinal controls on fluvial sedimentation during the evolution of the Himalayan foreland basin (HFB). Dominance of multiple, moderately to strongly developed palaeosol assemblages during deposition of Lower Siwalik (similar to 12-10.8 Ma) sediments suggest that the HFB was marked by Upland set-up of Thomas et al. (2002). Activity of intra-basinal faults on the uplands and deposition of terminal fans at different times caused the development of multiple soils. Further, detailed pedofacies along-with lithofacies studies indicate prevalence of stable tectonic conditions and development of meandering streams with broad floodplains. However, the Middle Siwalik (similar to 10.8-4.92 Ma) sub-group is marked by multistoried sandstones and minor mudstone and mainly weakly developed palaeosols, indicating deposition by large braided rivers in the form of megafans in a Lowland set-up of Thomas et al. (2002). Significant change in nature and size of rivers from the Lower to Middle Siwalik at similar to 10 Ma is found almost throughout of the basin from Kohat Plateau (Pakistan) to Nepal because the Himalayan orogeny witnessed its greatest tectonic upheaval at this time leading to attainment of great heights by the Himalaya, intensification of the monsoon, development of large rivers systems and a high rate of sedimentation, hereby a major change from the Upland set-up to the Lowland set-up over major parts of the HFB. An interesting geomorphic environmental set-up prevailed in the Ramnagar sub-basin during deposition of the studied Upper Siwalik (similar to 4.92 to <1.68 Ma) sediments as observed from the degree of pedogenesis and the type of palaeosols. In general, the Upper Siwalik sub-group in the Ramnagar sub-basin is subdivided from bottom to top into the Purmandal sandstone (4.92-4.49 Ma), Nagrota (4.49-1.68 Ma) and Boulder Conglomerate (<1.68 Ma) formations on the basis of sedimentological characters and change in dominant lithology. Presence of mudstone, a few thin gravel beds and dominant sandstone lithology with weakly to moderately developed palaeosols in the Purmandal sandstone Fm. indicates deposition by shallow braided fluvial streams. The deposition of mudstone dominant Nagrota Fm. with moderately to some well developed palaeosols and a zone of gleyed palaeosols with laminated mudstones and thin sandstones took place in an environment marked by numerous small lakes, water-logged regions and small streams in an environment just south of the Piedmont zone, perhaps similar to what is happening presently in the Upland region/the Upper Gangetic plain. This area is locally called the `Trai region' (Pascoe, 1964). Deposition of Boulder Conglomerate Fm. took place by gravelly braided river system close to the Himalayan Ranges. Activity along the Main Boundary Fault led to progradation of these environments distal-ward and led to development of on the whole a coarsening upward sequence. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Silicon isotopes: from cosmos to benthos

Silicon is the second most abundant element on the Earth and one of the more abundant elements in our Solar System. Variations in the relative abundance of the stable isotopes of Si (Si isotope fractionation) in different natural reservoirs, both terrestrial (surface and deep Earth) as well as extra-terrestrial (e.g. meteorites, lunar samples), are a powerful tracer of present and past processes involving abiotic as well as biotic systems. The versatility of the Si isotope tracer is reflected in its wide-ranging applications from understanding the origin of early Solar System objects, planetary differentiation, Moon formation, mantle melting and magma differentiation on the Earth, ancient sea-water composition, to modern-day weathering, clay formation and biological fractionation on land as well as in the oceans. The application of Si isotopes as tracers of natural processes started over six decades ago and its usage has seen a sudden increase over the last decade due to improvements in mass spectrometry, particularly the advent of multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometers, which has made Si isotope measurements safe and relatively easy while simultaneously improving the accuracy and precision of measurements.

Cryogenian magmatism and crustal reworking in the Southern Granulite Terrane, India

Understanding Neoproterozoic crustal evolution is fundamental to reconstructing the Gondwana supercontinent, which was assembled at this time. Here we report evidence of Cryogenian crustal reworking in the Madurai Block of the Southern Granulite Terrane of India. The study focuses on a garnet-bearing granite-charnockite suite, where the granite shows in situ dehydration into patches and veins of incipient charnockite along the contact with charnockite. The granite also carries dismembered layers of Mg-Al-rich granulite. Micro-textural evidence for dehydration of granite in the presence of CO2-rich fluids includes the formation of orthopyroxene by the breakdown of biotite, neoblastic zircon growth in the dehydration zone, at around 870 degrees C and 8kbar. The zircon U-Pb ages suggest formation of the granite, charnockite, and incipient charnockite at 836 +/- 73, 831 +/- 31, and 772 +/- 49Ma, respectively. Negative zircon epsilon Hf (t) (-5 to -20) values suggest that these rocks were derived from a reworked Palaeoproterozoic crustal source. Zircon grains in the Mg-Al-rich granulite record a spectrum of ages from ca. 2300 to ca. 500Ma, suggesting multiple provenances ranging from Palaeoproterozoic to mid-Neoproterozoic, with neoblastic zircon growth during high-temperature metamorphism in the Cambrian. We propose that the garnet-bearing granite and charnockite reflect the crustal reworking of aluminous crustal material indicated by the presence of biotite+quartz+aluminosilicate inclusions in the garnet within the granite. This crustal source can be the Mg-Al-rich layers carried by the granite itself, which later experienced high-temperature regional metamorphism at ca. 550Ma. Our model also envisages that the CO2 which dehydrated the garnet-bearing granite generating incipient charnockite was sourced from the proximal massive charnockite through advection. These Cryogenian crustal reworking events are related to prolonged tectonic activities prior to the final assembly of the Gondwana supercontinent.