The Skill of ECMWF Medium-Range Forecasts during the Year of Tropical Convection 2008

This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics are evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. It has been shown that the model was able to capture the monthly to seasonal mean features of tropical convection reasonably. Northward propagation of convective bands over the Bay of Bengal was also forecasted realistically up to 5 days in advance, including the onset phase of the monsoon during the first half of June 2008. However, large errors exist in the daily datasets especially for longer lead times over smaller domains. For shorter lead times (less than 4-5 days), forecast errors are much smaller over the oceans than over land. Moreover, the rate of increase of errors with lead time is rapid over the oceans and is confined to the regions where observed precipitation shows large day-to-day variability. It has been shown that this rapid growth of errors over the oceans is related to the spatial pattern of near-surface air temperature. This is probably due to the one-way air-sea interaction in the atmosphere-only model used for forecasting. While the prescribed surface temperature over the oceans remain realistic at shorter lead times, the pattern and hence the gradient of the surface temperature is not altered with change in atmospheric parameters at longer lead times. It has also been shown that the ECMWF model had considerable difficulties in forecasting very low and very heavy intensity of precipitation over South Asia. The model has too few grids with ``zero'' precipitation and heavy (>40 mm day(-1)) precipitation. On the other hand, drizzle-like precipitation is too frequent in the model compared to that in the TRMM datasets. Further analysis shows that a major source of error in the ECMWF precipitation forecasts is the diurnal cycle over the South Asian monsoon region. The peak intensity of precipitation in the model forecasts over land (ocean) appear about 6 (9) h earlier than that in the observations. Moreover, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much higher in the model forecasts compared to that in the TRMM estimates. It has been seen that the phase error of the diurnal cycle increases with forecast lead time. The error in monthly mean 3-hourly precipitation forecasts is about 2-4 times of the error in the daily mean datasets. Thus, effort should be given to improve the phase and amplitude forecast of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from the model.

Mixed Convection Induced in a Gas Flowing Past a Hot Horizontal Flat Plate

A boundary layer analysis of mixed convective motion over a hot horizontal flat plate is performed under the conditions of steady flow and low speed. Use of the Howarth-Dorodnytsyn transformation makes it possible to dispense with the usual Boussinesq approximation, and variable gas properties are accounted for via the assumption that dynamic viscosity and thermal conductivity are proportional to the absolute temperature. The formulation presented enables the entire mixed convection regime to be described by a single set of equations. Finite difference solutions when the Prandtl number is 0.72 are obtained over the entire range of the mixed convection parameter ξ from 0 (free convection) to 1 (forced convection) and heating parameter ▵ values from 2 to 12. The effects of both ξ and ▵on the velocity profiles, the temperature profiles, and the variation of skin friction and heat transfer functions are clearly illustrated in tables and graphs.

Unsteady mixed convection flow in stagnation region adjacent to a vertical surface

The unsteady two-dimensional laminar mixed convection flow in the stagnation region of a vertical surface has been studied where the buoyancy forces are due to both the temperature and concentration gradients. The unsteadiness in the flow and temperature fields is caused by the time-dependent free stream velocity. Both arbitrary wall temperature and concentration, and arbitrary surface heat and mass flux variations have been considered. The Navier-Stokes equations, the energy equation and the concentration equation, which are coupled nonlinear partial differential equations with three independent variables, have been reduced to a set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The analysis has also been done using boundary layer approximations and the difference between the solutions has been discussed. The governing ordinary differential equations for buoyancy assisting and buoyancy opposing regions have been solved numerically using a shooting method. The skin friction, heat transfer and mass transfer coefficients increase with the buoyancy parameter. However, the skin friction coefficient increases with the parameter lambda, which represents the unsteadiness in the free stream velocity, but the heat and mass transfer coefficients decrease. In the case of buoyancy opposed flow, the solution does not exist beyond a certain critical value of the buoyancy parameter. Also, for a certain range of the buoyancy parameter dual solutions exist.

On the holographic simulation of non-circular zone plates

New methods involving the manipulation of fundamental wavefronts (e.g., plane and spherical) with simple optical components such as pinholes and spherical lenses have been developed for the fabrication of elliptic, hyperbolic and conical holographic zone plates. Also parabolic zone plates by holographic techniques have been obtained for the first time. The performance behaviour of these zone plates has been studied. Further a phenomenological explanation is offered for the observed improved fringe contrast obtained with a spherical reference wave.

Importance of meridional circulation i flux transport dynamo: the possibility of a maunder-like grand minimum

Meridional circulation is an important ingredient in flux transport dynamo models. We have studied its importance on the period, the amplitude of the solar cycle, and also in producing Maunder-like grand minima in these models. First, we model the periods of the last 23 sunspot cycles by varying the meridional circulation speed. If the dynamo is in a diffusion-dominated regime, then we find that most of the cycle amplitudes also get modeled up to some extent when we model the periods. Next, we propose that at the beginning of the Maunder minimum the amplitude of meridional circulation dropped to a low value and then after a few years it increased again. Several independent studies also favor this assumption. With this assumption, a diffusion-dominated dynamo is able to reproduce many important features of the Maunder minimum remarkably well. If the dynamo is in a diffusion-dominated regime, then a slower meridional circulation means that the poloidal field gets more time to diffuse during its transport through the convection zone, making the dynamo weaker. This consequence helps to model both the cycle amplitudes and the Maunder-like minima. We, however, fail to reproduce these results if the dynamo is in an advection-dominated regime.

Non-Boussinesq conjugate natural convection in a vertical annulus

Non-Boussinesq conjugate natural convection in a vertical annulus with a centrally located vertical heat generating rod is studied numerically, taking into account variable transport properties. Results are presented for maximum solid temperatures, average Nusselt numbers and average pressure. In general, the Boussinesq model predicts higher temperatures in the solid and lower average Nusselt numbers on the inner and outer boundaries. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of conjugate laminar mixed convection cooling in a shrouded array of electronic components

The temperature variation in the insulation around an electronic component, mounted on a horizontal circuit board is studied numerically. The flow is assumed to be laminar and fully developed. The effect of mixed convection and two different types of insulation are considered. The mass, momentum and energy conservation equations in the fluid and conduction equation in the insulation are solved using the SIMPLER algorithm. Computations are carried out for liquid Freon and water, for different conductivity ratios, and different Rayleigh numbers. It is demonstrated that the temperature variation within the insulation becomes important when the thermal conductivity of the insulation is less than ten times the thermal conductivity of the cooling medium.

On the possibility of an alpha-sq omega-type dynamo in a thin layer inside the sun

If the solar dynamo operates in a thin layer of 10,000-km thickness at the interface between the convection zone and the radiative core, using the facts that the dynamo should have a period of 22 years and a half-wavelength of 40 deg in the theta-direction, it is possible to impose restrictions on the values which various dynamo parameters are allowed to have. It is pointed out that the dynamo should be of alpha-sq omega nature, and kinematical calculations are presented for free dynamo waves and for dynamos in thin rectangular slabs with appropriate boundary conditions. An alpha-sq omega dynamo is expected to produce a significant poloidal field which does not leak to the solar surface. It is found that the turbulent diffusity eta and alpha-coefficient are restricted to values within about a factor of 10, the median values being eta of about 10 to the 10th sq cm/sec and alpha of about 10 cm/sec. On the basis of mixing length theory, it is pointed out that such values imply a reasonable turbulent velocity of the order 30 m/s, but rather small turbulent length scales like 300 km.

Nonsimilar boundary layers for non-Darcy mixed convection flow about a horizontal surface in a saturated porous medium

The nonsimilar non-Darcy mixed convection flow about a heated horizontal surface in a saturated porous medium has been studied when the surface temperature is a power function of distance (Tw = T∞ ± Axλ). The analysis is performed for the cases of parallel and stagnation flows with favourable induced pressure gradient. The partial differential equations governing the flow have been solved numerically using the Keller box method. The heat transfer is enhanced due to the buoyancy parameter and wall temperature, but the non-Darcy parameter reduces it. For non-Darcy flow, the similarity solution exists only for the case of parallel flow.

Locating the seat of the solar dynamo

The hypothesis that the solar dynamo operates in a thin layer at the bottom of the convection zone is addressed. Recent work on the question whether the magnetic flux can be made to emerge at sunspot latitudes is reviewed. It is concluded that this hypothesis can fit the observational facts only if there is turbulence with a length scale of a few hundred kilometers in and around the dynamo region.

Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2-3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean. Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline. The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of a convective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.

Nonaxisymmetric unsteady motion over a rotating disk in the presence of free convection and magnetic field

The nonaxisymmetric unsteady motion produced by a buoyancy-induced cross-flow of an electrically conducting fluid over an infinite rotating disk in a vertical plane and in the presence of an applied magnetic field normal to the disk has been studied. Both constant wall and constant heat flux conditions have been considered. It has been found that if the angular velocity of the disk and the applied magnetic field squared vary inversely as a linear function of time (i.e. as (1??t*)?1, the governing Navier-Stokes equation and the energy equation admit a locally self-similar solution. The resulting set of ordinary differential equations has been solved using a shooting method with a generalized Newton's correction procedure for guessed boundary conditions. It is observed that in a certain region near the disk the buoyancy induced cross-flow dominates the primary von Karman flow. The shear stresses induced by the cross-flow are found to be more than these of the primary flow and they increase with magnetic parameter or the parameter ? characterizing the unsteadiness. The velocity profiles in the x- and y-directions for the primary flow at any two values of the unsteady parameter ? cross each other towards the edge of the boundary layer. The heat transfer increases with the Prandtl number but reduces with the magnetic parameter.

Non-Darcy mixed convection flow with thermal dispersion on a vertical cylinder in a saturated porous medium

The non-Darcy mixed convection flow on a vertical cylinder embedded in a saturated porous medium has been studied taking into account the effect of thermal dispersion. Both forced flow and buoyancy force dominated cases with constant wall temperature condition have been considered. The governing partial differential equations have been solved numerically using the Keller box method. The results are presented for the buoyancy parameter which cover the entire regime of mixed convection flow ranging from pure forced convection to pure free convection. The effect of thermal dispersion is found to be more pronounced on the heat transfer than on the skin friction and it enhances the heat transfer but reduces the skin friction.