Implications of multiple scattering on the assessment of black carbon aerosol radiative forcing

The effects of radiative coupling between scattering and absorbing aerosols, in an external mixture, on the aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) due to black carbon (BC), its sensitivity to the composite aerosol loading and composition, and surface reflectance are investigated using radiative transfer model simulations. The ARF due to BC is found to depend significantly on the optical properties of the `neighboring' (non-BC) aerosol species. The scattering due to these species significantly increases the top of the atmospheric warming due to black carbon aerosols, and significant changes in the radiative forcing efficiency of BC. This is especially significant over dark surfaces (such as oceans), despite the ARF due to BC being higher over snow and land-surfaces. The spatial heterogeneity of this effect (coupling or multiple scattering by neighboring aerosol species) imposes large uncertainty in the estimation ARF due to BC aerosols, especially over the oceans. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lineage delimitation and description of nine new species of bush frogs (Anura: Raorchestes, Rhacophoridae) from the Western Ghats Escarpment

Bush frogs of the genus Raorchestes are distributed mainly in the Western Ghats Escarpment of Peninsular India. The inventory of species in this genus is incomplete and there is ambiguity in the systematic status of species recognized by morphological criteria. To address the dual problem of taxon sampling and systematic uncertainty in bush frogs, we used a large-scale spatial sampling design, explicitly incorporating the geographic and ecological heterogeneity of the Western Ghats. We then used a hierarchical multi-criteria approach by combining mitochondrial phylogeny, genetic distance, geographic range, morphology and advertisement call to delimit bush frog lineages. Our analyses revealed the existence of a large number of new lineages with varying levels of genetic divergence. Here, we provide diagnoses and descriptions for nine lineages that exhibit divergence across multiple axes. The discovery of new lineages that exhibit high divergence across wide ranges of elevation and across the major massifs highlights the large gaps in historical sampling. These discoveries underscore the significance of addressing inadequate knowledge of species distribution, namely the ``Wallacean shortfall'', in addressing the problem of taxon sampling and unknown diversity in tropical hotspots. A biogeographically informed sampling and analytical approach was critical in detecting and delineating lineages in a consistent manner across the genus. Through increased taxon sampling, we were also able to discern a number of well-supported sub-clades that were either unresolved or absent in earlier phylogenetic reconstructions and identify a number of shallow divergent lineages which require further examination for assessment of their taxonomic status.

Snaps and mends: DNA breaks and chromosomal translocations

Integrity in entirety is the preferred state of any organism. The temporal and spatial integrity of the genome ensures continued survival of a cell. DNA breakage is the first step towards creation of chromosomal translocations. In this review, we highlight the factors contributing towards the breakage of chromosomal DNA. It has been well-established that the structure and sequence of DNA play a critical role in selective fragility of the genome. Several non-B-DNA structures such as Z-DNA, cruciform DNA, G-quadruplexes, R loops and triplexes have been implicated in generation of genomic fragility leading to translocations. Similarly, specific sequences targeted by proteins such as Recombination Activating Genes and Activation Induced Cytidine Deaminase are involved in translocations. Processes that ensure the integrity of the genome through repair may lead to persistence of breakage and eventually translocations if their actions are anomalous. An insufficient supply of nucleotides and chromatin architecture may also play a critical role. This review focuses on a range of events with the potential to threaten the genomic integrity of a cell, leading to cancer.

Reservoir Operation with Fuzzy State Variables for Irrigation of Multiple Crops

This paper presents the development and application of a stochastic dynamic programming model with fuzzy state variables for irrigation of multiple crops. A fuzzy stochastic dynamic programming (FSDP) model is developed in which the reservoir storage and soil moisture of the crops are considered as fuzzy numbers, and the reservoir inflow is considered as a stochastic variable. The model is formulated with an objective of minimizing crop yield deficits, resulting in optimal water allocations to the crops by maintaining storage continuity and soil moisture balance. The standard fuzzy arithmetic method is used to solve all arithmetic equations with fuzzy numbers, and the fuzzy ranking method is used to compare two or more fuzzy numbers. The reservoir operation model is integrated with a daily-based water allocation model, which results in daily temporal variations of allocated water, soil moisture, and crop deficits. A case study of an existing Bhadra reservoir in Karnataka, India, is chosen for the model application. The FSDP is a more realistic model because it considers the uncertainty in discretization of state variables. The results obtained using the FSDP model are found to be more acceptable for the case study than those of the classical stochastic dynamic model and the standard operating model, in terms of 10-day releases from the reservoir and evapotranspiration deficit. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Global response sensitivity analysis of uncertain structures

The problem of characterizing global sensitivity indices of structural response when system uncertainties are represented using probabilistic and (or) non-probabilistic modeling frameworks (which include intervals, convex functions, and fuzzy variables) is considered. These indices are characterized in terms of distance measures between a fiducial model in which uncertainties in all the pertinent variables are taken into account and a family of hypothetical models in which uncertainty in one or more selected variables are suppressed. The distance measures considered include various probability distance measures (Hellinger,l(2), and the Kantorovich metrics, and the Kullback-Leibler divergence) and Hausdorff distance measure as applied to intervals and fuzzy variables. Illustrations include studies on an uncertainly parametered building frame carrying uncertain loads. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A mean-reverting stochastic model for the political business cycle

In this article, we look at the political business cycle problem through the lens of uncertainty. The feedback control used by us is the famous NKPC with stochasticity and wage rigidities. We extend the New Keynesian Phillips Curve model to the continuous time stochastic set up with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We minimize relevant expected quadratic cost by solving the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. The basic intuition of the classical model is qualitatively carried forward in our set up but uncertainty also plays an important role in determining the optimal trajectory of the voter support function. The internal variability of the system acts as a base shifter for the support function in the risk neutral case. The role of uncertainty is even more prominent in the risk averse case where all the shape parameters are directly dependent on variability. Thus, in this case variability controls both the rates of change as well as the base shift parameters. To gain more insight we have also studied the model when the coefficients are time invariant and studied numerical solutions. The close relationship between the unemployment rate and the support function for the incumbent party is highlighted. The role of uncertainty in creating sampling fluctuation in this set up, possibly towards apparently anomalous results, is also explored.