164 resultados para Probabilistic methods
Resumo:
A study of environmental chloride and groundwater balance has been carried out in order to estimate their relative value for measuring average groundwater recharge under a humid climatic environment with a relatively shallow water table. The hybrid water fluctuation method allowed the split of the hydrologic year into two seasons of recharge (wet season) and no recharge (dry season) to appraise specific yield during the dry season and, second, to estimate recharge from the water table rise during the wet season. This well elaborated and suitable method has then been used as a standard to assess the effectiveness of the chloride method under forest humid climatic environment. Effective specific yield of 0.08 was obtained for the study area. It reflects an effective basin-wide process and is insensitive to local heterogeneities in the aquifer system. The hybrid water fluctuation method gives an average recharge value of 87.14 mm/year at the basin scale, which represents 5.7% of the annual rainfall. Recharge value estimated based on the chloride method varies between 16.24 and 236.95 mm/year with an average value of 108.45 mm/year. It represents 7% of the mean annual precipitation. The discrepancy observed between recharge value estimated by the hybrid water fluctuation and the chloride mass balance methods appears to be very important, which could imply the ineffectiveness of the chloride mass balance method for this present humid environment.
Resumo:
This paper presents an overview of the seismic microzonation and the grade/level based study along with methods used for estimating hazard. The principles of seismic microzonation along with some current practices are discussed. Summary of seismic microzonation experiments carried out in India is presented. A detailed work of seismic microzonation of Bangalore has been presented as a case study. In this case study, a seismotectonic map for microzonation area has been developed covering 350 km radius around Bangalore, India using seismicity and seismotectonic parameters of the region. For seismic microzonation Bangalore Mahanagar Palike (BMP) area of 220 km2 has been selected as the study area. Seismic hazard analysis has been carried out using deterministic as well as probabilistic approaches. Synthetic ground motion at 653 locations, recurrence relation and peak ground acceleration maps at rock level have been generated. A detailed site characterization has been carried out using borehole with standard penetration test (SPT) ―N‖ values and geophysical data. The base map and 3-dimensional sub surface borehole model has been generated for study area using geographical information system (GIS). Multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW)method has been used to generate one-dimensional shear wave velocity profile at 58 locations and two- dimensional profile at 20 locations. These shear wave velocities are used to estimate equivalent shear wave velocity in the study area at every 5m intervals up to a depth of 30m. Because of wider variation in the rock depth, equivalent shear for the soil overburden thickness alone has been estimated and mapped using ArcGIS 9.2. Based on equivalent shear wave velocity of soil overburden thickness, the study area is classified as ―site class D‖. Site response study has been carried out using geotechnical properties and synthetic ground motions with program SHAKE2000.The soil in the study area is classified as soil with moderate amplification potential. Site response results obtained using standard penetration test (SPT) ―N‖ values and shear wave velocity are compared, it is found that the results based on shear wave velocity is lower than the results based on SPT ―N‖ values. Further, predominant frequency of soil column has been estimated based on ambient noise survey measurements using instruments of L4-3D short period sensors equipped with Reftek 24 bit digital acquisition systems. Predominant frequency obtained from site response study is compared with ambient noise survey. In general, predominant frequencies in the study area vary from 3Hz to 12Hz. Due to flat terrain in the study area, the induced effect of land slide possibility is considered to be remote. However, induced effect of liquefaction hazard has been estimated and mapped. Finally, by integrating the above hazard parameters two hazard index maps have been developed using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) on GIS platform. One map is based on deterministic hazard analysis and other map is based on probabilistic hazard analysis. Finally, a general guideline is proposed by bringing out the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches.
Resumo:
This paper presents an overview of the seismic microzonation and the grade/level based study along with methods used for estimating hazard. The principles of seismic microzonation along with some current practices are discussed. Summary of seismic microzonation experiments carried out in India is presented. A detailed work of seismic microzonation of Bangalore has been presented as a case study. In this case study, a seismotectonic map for microzonation area has been developed covering 350 km radius around Bangalore, India using seismicity and seismotectonic parameters of the region. For seismic microzonation Bangalore Mahanagar Palike (BMP) area of 220 km2 has been selected as the study area. Seismic hazard analysis has been carried out using deterministic as well as probabilistic approaches. Synthetic ground motion at 653 locations, recurrence relation and peak ground acceleration maps at rock level have been generated. A detailed site characterization has been carried out using borehole with standard penetration test (SPT) ―N‖ values and geophysical data. The base map and 3-dimensional sub surface borehole model has been generated for study area using geographical information system (GIS). Multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW)method has been used to generate one-dimensional shear wave velocity profile at 58 locations and two- dimensional profile at 20 locations. These shear wave velocities are used to estimate equivalent shear wave velocity in the study area at every 5m intervals up to a depth of 30m. Because of wider variation in the rock depth, equivalent shear for the soil overburden thickness alone has been estimated and mapped using ArcGIS 9.2. Based on equivalent shear wave velocity of soil overburden thickness, the study area is classified as ―site class D‖. Site response study has been carried out using geotechnical properties and synthetic ground motions with program SHAKE2000.The soil in the study area is classified as soil with moderate amplification potential. Site response results obtained using standard penetration test (SPT) ―N‖ values and shear wave velocity are compared, it is found that the results based on shear wave velocity is lower than the results based on SPT ―N‖ values. Further, predominant frequency of soil column has been estimated based on ambient noise survey measurements using instruments of L4-3D short period sensors equipped with Reftek 24 bit digital acquisition systems. Predominant frequency obtained from site response study is compared with ambient noise survey. In general, predominant frequencies in the study area vary from 3Hz to 12Hz. Due to flat terrain in the study area, the induced effect of land slide possibility is considered to be remote. However, induced effect of liquefaction hazard has been estimated and mapped. Finally, by integrating the above hazard parameters two hazard index maps have been developed using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) on GIS platform. One map is based on deterministic hazard analysis and other map is based on probabilistic hazard analysis. Finally, a general guideline is proposed by bringing out the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches.
Resumo:
Feature selection is an important first step in regional hydrologic studies (RHYS). Over the past few decades, advances in data collection facilities have resulted in development of data archives on a variety of hydro-meteorological variables that may be used as features in RHYS. Currently there are no established procedures for selecting features from such archives. Therefore, hydrologists often use subjective methods to arrive at a set of features. This may lead to misleading results. To alleviate this problem, a probabilistic clustering method for regionalization is presented to determine appropriate features from the available dataset. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated by application to regionalization of watersheds in conterminous United States for low flow frequency analysis. Plausible homogeneous regions that are formed by using the proposed clustering method are compared with those from conventional methods of regionalization using L-moment based homogeneity tests. Results show that the proposed methodology is promising for RHYS.
Resumo:
A modified lattice model using finite element method has been developed to study the mode-I fracture analysis of heterogeneous materials like concrete. In this model, the truss members always join at points where aggregates are located which are modeled as plane stress triangular elements. The truss members are given the properties of cement mortar matrix randomly, so as to represent the randomness of strength in concrete. It is widely accepted that the fracture of concrete structures should not be based on strength criterion alone, but should be coupled with energy criterion. Here, by incorporating the strain softening through a parameter ‘α’, the energy concept is introduced. The softening branch of load-displacement curves was successfully obtained. From the sensitivity study, it was observed that the maximum load of a beam is most sensitive to the tensile strength of mortar. It is seen that by varying the values of properties of mortar according to a normal random distribution, better results can be obtained for load-displacement diagram.
Resumo:
In this paper, we develop and analyze C(0) penalty methods for the fully nonlinear Monge-Ampere equation det(D(2)u) = f in two dimensions. The key idea in designing our methods is to build discretizations such that the resulting discrete linearizations are symmetric, stable, and consistent with the continuous linearization. We are then able to show the well-posedness of the penalty method as well as quasi-optimal error estimates using the Banach fixed-point theorem as our main tool. Numerical experiments are presented which support the theoretical results.
Resumo:
The present paper develops a family of explicit algorithms for rotational dynamics and presents their comparison with several existing methods. For rotational motion the configuration space is a non-linear manifold, not a Euclidean vector space. As a consequence the rotation vector and its time derivatives correspond to different tangent spaces of rotation manifold at different time instants. This renders the usual integration algorithms for Euclidean space inapplicable for rotation. In the present algorithms this problem is circumvented by relating the equation of motion to a particular tangent space. It has been accomplished with the help of already existing relation between rotation increments which belongs to two different tangent spaces. The suggested method could in principle make any integration algorithm on Euclidean space, applicable to rotation. However, the present paper is restricted only within explicit Runge-Kutta enabled to handle rotation. The algorithms developed here are explicit and hence computationally cheaper than implicit methods. Moreover, they appear to have much higher local accuracy and hence accurate in predicting any constants of motion for reasonably longer time. The numerical results for solutions as well as constants of motion, indicate superior performance by most of our algorithms, when compared to some of the currently known algorithms, namely ALGO-C1, STW, LIEMID[EA], MCG, SUBCYC-M.