Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5A degrees. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960-1990), showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region.

Reservoir Operation with Fuzzy State Variables for Irrigation of Multiple Crops

This paper presents the development and application of a stochastic dynamic programming model with fuzzy state variables for irrigation of multiple crops. A fuzzy stochastic dynamic programming (FSDP) model is developed in which the reservoir storage and soil moisture of the crops are considered as fuzzy numbers, and the reservoir inflow is considered as a stochastic variable. The model is formulated with an objective of minimizing crop yield deficits, resulting in optimal water allocations to the crops by maintaining storage continuity and soil moisture balance. The standard fuzzy arithmetic method is used to solve all arithmetic equations with fuzzy numbers, and the fuzzy ranking method is used to compare two or more fuzzy numbers. The reservoir operation model is integrated with a daily-based water allocation model, which results in daily temporal variations of allocated water, soil moisture, and crop deficits. A case study of an existing Bhadra reservoir in Karnataka, India, is chosen for the model application. The FSDP is a more realistic model because it considers the uncertainty in discretization of state variables. The results obtained using the FSDP model are found to be more acceptable for the case study than those of the classical stochastic dynamic model and the standard operating model, in terms of 10-day releases from the reservoir and evapotranspiration deficit. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Bimodality and re-entrant behaviour in the hierarchical self-assembly of polymeric nanoparticles

We show that a film of a suspension of polymer grafted nanoparticles on a liquid substrate can be employed to create two-dimensional nanostructures with a remarkable variation in the pattern length scales. The presented experiments also reveal the emergence of concentration-dependent bimodal patterns as well as re-entrant behaviour that involves length scales due to dewetting and compositional instabilities. The experimental observations are explained through a gradient dynamics model consisting of coupled evolution equations for the height of the suspension film and the concentration of polymer. Using a Flory-Huggins free energy functional for the polymer solution, we show in a linear stability analysis that the thin film undergoes dewetting and/or compositional instabilities depending on the concentration of the polymer in the solution. We argue that the formation via `hierarchical self-assembly' of various functional nanostructures observed in different systems can be explained as resulting from such an interplay of instabilities.

Numerical Investigations for Leakage and Windage Heating in Straight-Through Labyrinth Seals

The ability to quantify leakage flow and windage heating for labyrinth seals with honeycomb lands is critical in understanding gas turbine engine system performance and predicting its component life. Variety of labyrinth seal configurations (number of teeth, stepped or straight, honeycomb cell size) are in use in gas turbines, and for each configuration, there are many geometric factors that can impact a seal's leakage and windage characteristics. This paper describes the development of a numerical methodology aimed at studying the effect of honeycomb lands on leakage and windage heating. Specifically, a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed utilizing commercial finite volume-based software incorporating the renormalization group (RNG) k-epsilon turbulence model with modified Schmidt number. The modified turbulence model is benchmarked and fine-tuned based on several experiments. Using this model, a broad parametric study is conducted by varying honeycomb cell size, pressure ratio (PR), and radial clearance for a four-tooth straight-through labyrinth seal. The results show good agreement with available experimental data. They further indicate that larger honeycomb cells predict higher seal leakage and windage heating at tighter clearances compared to smaller honeycomb cells and smooth lands. However, at open seal clearances larger honeycomb cells have lower leakage compared to smaller honeycomb cells.

Influence of recombination on acquisition and reversion of immune escape and compensatory mutations in HIV-1

Following transmission, HIV-1 adapts in the new host by acquiring mutations that allow it to escape from the host immune response at multiple epitopes. It also reverts mutations associated with epitopes targeted in the transmitting host but not in the new host. Moreover, escape mutations are often associated with additional compensatory mutations that partially recover fitness costs. It is unclear whether recombination expedites this process of multi-locus adaptation. To elucidate the role of recombination, we constructed a detailed population dynamics model that integrates viral dynamics, host immune response at multiple epitopes through cytotoxic T lymphocytes, and viral evolution driven by mutation, recombination, and selection. Using this model, we compute the expected waiting time until the emergence of the strain that has gained escape and compensatory mutations against the new host's immune response, and reverted these mutations at epitopes no longer targeted. We find that depending on the underlying fitness landscape, shaped by both costs and benefits of mutations, adaptation proceeds via distinct dominant pathways with different effects of recombination, in particular distinguishing escape and reversion. When adaptation at a single epitope is involved, recombination can substantially accelerate immune escape but minimally affects reversion. When multiple epitopes are involved, recombination can accelerate or inhibit adaptation depending on the fitness landscape. Specifically, recombination tends to delay adaptation when a purely uphill fitness landscape is accessible at each epitope, and accelerate it when a fitness valley is associated with each epitope. Our study points to the importance of recombination in shaping the adaptation of HIV-1 following its transmission to new hosts, a process central to T cell-based vaccine strategies. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license.