Multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature using support vector machine

Climate change impact assessment studies involve downscaling large-scale atmospheric predictor variables (LSAPVs) simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) to site-scale meteorological variables. This article presents a least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM)-based methodology for multi-site downscaling of maximum and minimum daily temperature series. The methodology involves (1) delineation of sites in the study area into clusters based on correlation structure of predictands, (2) downscaling LSAPVs to monthly time series of predictands at a representative site identified in each of the clusters, (3) translation of the downscaled information in each cluster from the representative site to that at other sites using LS-SVM inter-site regression relationships, and (4) disaggregation of the information at each site from monthly to daily time scale using k-nearest neighbour disaggregation methodology. Effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by application to data pertaining to four sites in the catchment of Beas river basin, India. Simulations of Canadian coupled global climate model (CGCM3.1/T63) for four IPCC SRES scenarios namely A1B, A2, B1 and COMMIT were downscaled to future projections of the predictands in the study area. Comparison of results with those based on recently proposed multivariate multiple linear regression (MMLR) based downscaling method and multi-site multivariate statistical downscaling (MMSD) method indicate that the proposed method is promising and it can be considered as a feasible choice in statistical downscaling studies. The performance of the method in downscaling daily minimum temperature was found to be better when compared with that in downscaling daily maximum temperature. Results indicate an increase in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures at all the sites for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The projected increment is high for A2 scenario, and it is followed by that for A1B, B1 and COMMIT scenarios. Projections, in general, indicated an increase in mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures during January to February and October to December.

Community-managed forests and wildlife-friendly agriculture play a subsidiary but not substitutive role to protected areas for the endangered Asian elephant

Global conservation policy is increasingly debating the feasibility of reconciling wildlife conservation and human resource requirements in land uses outside protected areas (PAs). However, there are few quantitative assessments of whether or to what extent these `wildlife-friendly' land uses fulfill a fundamental function of PAs-to separate biodiversity from anthropogenic threats. We distinguish the role of wildlife-friendly land uses as being (a) subsidiary, whereby they augment PAs with secondary habitat, or (b) substitutive, wherein they provide comparable habitat to PAs. We tested our hypotheses by investigating the influence of land use and human presence on space-use intensity of the endangered Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) in a fragmented landscape comprising PAs and wildlife-friendly land uses. We applied multistate occupancy models to spatial data on elephant occurrence to estimate and model the overall probability of elephants using a site, and the conditional probability of high-intensity use given that elephants use a site. The probability of elephants using a site regardless of intensity did not vary between PAs and wildlife-friendly land uses. However, high-intensity use declined with distance to PM, and this effect was accentuated by an increase in village density. Therefore, while wildlife-friendly land uses did play a subsidiary conservation role, their potential to substitute for PAs was offset by a strong human presence. Our findings demonstrate the need to evaluate the role of wildlife-friendly land uses in landscape-scale conservation; for species that have conflicting resource requirements with people, PAs are likely to provide crucial refuge from growing anthropogenic threats. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fire and soil temperatures during controlled burns in seasonally dry tropical forests of southern India

Fire and soil temperatures were measured during controlled burns conducted by the Forest Department at two seasonally dry tropical forest sites in southern India, and their relationships with fuel load, fuel moisture and weather variables assessed using stepwise regression. Fire temperatures at the ground level varied between 79 degrees C and 760 degrees C, with higher temperatures recorded at high fuel loads and ambient temperatures, whereas lower temperatures were recorded at high relative humidity. Fire temperatures did not vary with fuel moisture or wind speed. Soil temperatures varied between <79 degrees C and 302 degrees C and were positively correlated with ground-level fire temperatures. Results from the study imply that fuel loads in forested areas have to be reduced to ensure low intensity fires in the dry season. Low fire temperatures would ensure lower mortality of above-ground saplings and minimal damage to root stocks of tree species that would maintain the regenerative capacity of a tropical dry forest subject to dry season wildfires.

AN OPTIMUM SHRINKAGE ESTIMATOR BASED ON MINIMUM-PROBABILITY-OF-ERROR CRITERION AND APPLICATION TO SIGNAL DENOISING

We address the problem of designing an optimal pointwise shrinkage estimator in the transform domain, based on the minimum probability of error (MPE) criterion. We assume an additive model for the noise corrupting the clean signal. The proposed formulation is general in the sense that it can handle various noise distributions. We consider various noise distributions (Gaussian, Student's-t, and Laplacian) and compare the denoising performance of the estimator obtained with the mean-squared error (MSE)-based estimators. The MSE optimization is carried out using an unbiased estimator of the MSE, namely Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimate (SURE). Experimental results show that the MPE estimator outperforms the SURE estimator in terms of SNR of the denoised output, for low (0 -10 dB) and medium values (10 - 20 dB) of the input SNR.

CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change

Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamics research sites (CTFS-ForestGEO) useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. Within very large plots (median size 25ha), all stems 1cm diameter are identified to species, mapped, and regularly recensused according to standardized protocols. CTFS-ForestGEO spans 25 degrees S-61 degrees N latitude, is generally representative of the range of bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic conditions experienced by forests worldwide, and is the only forest monitoring network that applies a standardized protocol to each of the world's major forest biomes. Supplementary standardized measurements at subsets of the sites provide additional information on plants, animals, and ecosystem and environmental variables. CTFS-ForestGEO sites are experiencing multifaceted anthropogenic global change pressures including warming (average 0.61 degrees C), changes in precipitation (up to +/- 30% change), atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur compounds (up to 3.8g Nm(-2)yr(-1) and 3.1g Sm(-2)yr(-1)), and forest fragmentation in the surrounding landscape (up to 88% reduced tree cover within 5km). The broad suite of measurements made at CTFS-ForestGEO sites makes it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. Ongoing research across the CTFS-ForestGEO network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forest diversity and dynamics in an era of global change.

Belief propagation for minimum weight many-to-one matchings in the random complete graph

In a complete bipartite graph with vertex sets of cardinalities n and n', assign random weights from exponential distribution with mean 1, independently to each edge. We show that, as n -> infinity, with n' = n/alpha] for any fixed alpha > 1, the minimum weight of many-to-one matchings converges to a constant (depending on alpha). Many-to-one matching arises as an optimization step in an algorithm for genome sequencing and as a measure of distance between finite sets. We prove that a belief propagation (BP) algorithm converges asymptotically to the optimal solution. We use the objective method of Aldous to prove our results. We build on previous works on minimum weight matching and minimum weight edge cover problems to extend the objective method and to further the applicability of belief propagation to random combinatorial optimization problems.

Assessing ``inherent vulnerability'' of forests: a methodological approach and a case study from Western Ghats, India

The objective of this study is to present a methodological approach to assess the inherent vulnerability of forests and apply it to a case study. Addressing inherent vulnerability, resulting from current stresses, is a necessary step for building resilience to long-term climate change. The proposed approach includes use of analytical framework that enables selection of vulnerability criteria and indicators systematically, application of pairwise comparison method (PCM) for assigning weights, and synthesis of a composite vulnerability index. This methodological approach has been applied at local scale to Aduvalli Protected Forest in Western Ghats in South India, where a vulnerability index value of 0.248 is estimated. Results of the case study indicate that `preponderance of invasive species' and forest dependence of community are the major sources of vulnerability at present for Aduvalli Protected Forest. Adoption of this methodology can assist in development of forest management plans to enhance adaptability of Aduvalli PF to current as well as future stresses, including climate change. This methodological approach can be applied across forest-types after appropriate changes to criteria and indicators and their weights, to estimate the inherent vulnerability to enable development of adaptation strategy.

Equilibrium and equivariant triangulations of some small covers with minimum number of vertices

Small covers were introduced by Davis and Januszkiewicz in 1991. We introduce the notion of equilibrium triangulations for small covers. We study equilibrium and vertex minimal 4-equivariant triangulations of 2-dimensional small covers. We discuss vertex minimal equilibrium triangulations of RP3#RP3, S-1 x RP2 and a nontrivial S-1 bundle over RP2. We construct some nice equilibrium triangulations of the real projective space RPn with 2(n) + n 1 vertices. The main tool is the theory of small covers.

All Digital Energy Sensing for Minimum Energy Tracking

Minimizing energy consumption is of utmost importance in an energy starved system with relaxed performance requirements. This brief presents a digital energy sensing method that requires neither a constant voltage reference nor a time reference. An energy minimizing loop uses this to find the minimum energy point and sets the supply voltage between 0.2 and 0.5 V. Energy savings up to 1275% over existing minimum energy tracking techniques in the literature is achieved.

Impacts of climate change and management responses in tropical forests depend on complex frugivore-mediated seed dispersal

AimBiodiversity outcomes under global change will be influenced by a range of ecological processes, and these processes are increasingly being considered in models of biodiversity change. However, the level of model complexity required to adequately account for important ecological processes often remains unclear. Here we assess how considering realistically complex frugivore-mediated seed dispersal influences the projected climate change outcomes for plant diversity in the Australian Wet Tropics (all 4313 species). LocationThe Australian Wet Tropics, Queensland, Australia. MethodsWe applied a metacommunity model (M-SET) to project biodiversity outcomes using seed dispersal models that varied in complexity, combined with alternative climate change scenarios and habitat restoration scenarios. ResultsWe found that the complexity of the dispersal model had a larger effect on projected biodiversity outcomes than did dramatically different climate change scenarios. Applying a simple dispersal model that ignored spatial, temporal and taxonomic variation due to frugivore-mediated seed dispersal underestimated the reduction in the area of occurrence of plant species under climate change and overestimated the loss of diversity in fragmented tropical forest remnants. The complexity of the dispersal model also changed the habitat restoration approach identified as the best for promoting persistence of biodiversity under climate change. Main conclusionsThe consideration of complex processes such as frugivore-mediated seed dispersal can make an important difference in how we understand and respond to the influence of climate change on biodiversity.

An estimate of the number of tropical tree species

The high species richness of tropical forests has long been recognized, yet there remains substantial uncertainty regarding the actual number of tropical tree species. Using a pantropical tree inventory database from closed canopy forests, consisting of 657,630 trees belonging to 11,371 species, we use a fitted value of Fisher's alpha and an approximate pantropical stem total to estimate the minimum number of tropical forest tree species to fall between similar to 40,000 and similar to 53,000, i.e., at the high end of previous estimates. Contrary to common assumption, the Indo-Pacific region was found to be as species-rich as the Neotropics, with both regions having a minimum of similar to 19,000-25,000 tree species. Continental Africa is relatively depauperate with a minimum of similar to 4,500-6,000 tree species. Very few species are shared among the African, American, and the Indo-Pacific regions. We provide a methodological framework for estimating species richness in trees that may help refine species richness estimates of tree-dependent taxa.

Minimum-Error-Probability CFO Estimation for Multiuser MIMO-OFDM Systems

We consider carrier frequency offset (CFO) estimation in the context of multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) systems over noisy frequency-selective wireless channels with both single- and multiuser scenarios. We conceived a new approach for parameter estimation by discretizing the continuous-valued CFO parameter into a discrete set of bins and then invoked detection theory, analogous to the minimum-bit-error-ratio optimization framework for detecting the finite-alphabet received signal. Using this radical approach, we propose a novel CFO estimation method and study its performance using both analytical results and Monte Carlo simulations. We obtain expressions for the variance of the CFO estimation error and the resultant BER degradation with the single- user scenario. Our simulations demonstrate that the overall BER performance of a MIMO-OFDM system using the proposed method is substantially improved for all the modulation schemes considered, albeit this is achieved at increased complexity.

Atmospheric pressure plasma chemical vapor deposition reactor for 100 mm wafers, optimized for minimum contamination at low gas flow rates

Gas discharge plasmas used for thinfilm deposition by plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) must be devoid of contaminants, like dust or active species which disturb the intended chemical reaction. In atmospheric pressure plasma systems employing an inert gas, the main source of such contamination is the residual air inside the system. To enable the construction of an atmospheric pressure plasma (APP) system with minimal contamination, we have carried out fluid dynamic simulation of the APP chamber into which an inert gas is injected at different mass flow rates. On the basis of the simulation results, we have designed and built a simple, scaled APP system, which is capable of holding a 100 mm substrate wafer, so that the presence of air (contamination) in the APP chamber is minimized with as low a flow rate of argon as possible. This is examined systematically by examining optical emission from the plasma as a function of inert gas flow rate. It is found that optical emission from the plasma shows the presence of atmospheric air, if the inlet argon flow rate is lowered below 300 sccm. That there is minimal contamination of the APP reactor built here, was verified by conducting an atmospheric pressure PECVD process under acetylene flow, combined with argon flow at 100 sccm and 500 sccm. The deposition of a polymer coating is confirmed by infrared spectroscopy. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy shows that the polymer coating contains only 5% of oxygen, which is comparable to the oxygen content in polymer deposits obtained in low-pressure PECVD systems. (C) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.

Vegetation structure and composition of tropical evergreen and deciduous forests in Uttara Kannada District, Western Ghats under different disturbance regimes

In the present paper, we present the structure and composition of tropical evergreen and deciduous forests in the Western Ghats monitored under a long-term programme involving Indian Institute of Science, Earthwatch and volunteer investigators from HSBC. Currently, there is limited evidence on the status and dynamics of tropical forests in the context of human disturbance and climate change. Observations made in this study show that the `more disturbed' evergreen and one of the deciduous plots have low species diversity compared to the less-disturbed forests. There are also variations in the size class structure in the more and `less disturbed' forests of all the locations. The variation is particularly noticeable in the DBH size class 10 - 15 cm category. When biomass stock estimates are considered, there was no significant difference between evergreen and deciduous forests. The difference in biomass stocks between `less disturbed' and `more disturbed' forests within a forest type is also low. Thus, the biomass and carbon stock has not been impacted despite the dependence of communities on the forests. Periodic and long-term monitoring of the status and dynamics of the forests is necessary in the context of potential increased human pressure and climate change. There is, therefore, a need to inform the communities of the impact of extraction and its effect on regeneration so as to motivate them to adopt what may be termed as ``adaptive resource management'', so as to sustain the flow of forest products.

Tailoring energy absorption capacity of CNT forests through application of electric field

This study examines the effect of electric field on energy absorption capacity of carbon nanotube forests (CNTFs), comprising of vertically aligned multiwalled carbon nanotubes, under both quasistatic (strain rate, (epsilon) over dot = 10(-3) s(-1)) and dynamic ((epsilon) over dot = similar to 10(3) s(-1)) loading conditions. Under quasistatic condition, the CNTFs were cyclically loaded and unloaded while electric field was applied along the length of carbon nanotube (CNT) either throughout the loading cycle or explicitly during either the loading or the unloading segment. The energy absorbed per cycle by CNTF increased monotonically with electric field when the field was applied only during the loading segment: A 7 fold increase in the energy absorption capacity was registered at an electric field of 1 kV/m whereas no significant change in it was noted for other schemes of electro-mechanical loading. The energy absorption capacity of CNTF under dynamic loading condition also increased monotonically with electric field; however, relative to the quasistatic condition, less pronounced effect was observed. This intriguing strain rate dependent effect of electric field on energy absorption capacity of CNTF is explained in terms of electric field induced strengthening of CNTF, originating from the time dependent electric field induced polarization of CNT. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.