The Skill of ECMWF Medium-Range Forecasts during the Year of Tropical Convection 2008

This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics are evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. It has been shown that the model was able to capture the monthly to seasonal mean features of tropical convection reasonably. Northward propagation of convective bands over the Bay of Bengal was also forecasted realistically up to 5 days in advance, including the onset phase of the monsoon during the first half of June 2008. However, large errors exist in the daily datasets especially for longer lead times over smaller domains. For shorter lead times (less than 4-5 days), forecast errors are much smaller over the oceans than over land. Moreover, the rate of increase of errors with lead time is rapid over the oceans and is confined to the regions where observed precipitation shows large day-to-day variability. It has been shown that this rapid growth of errors over the oceans is related to the spatial pattern of near-surface air temperature. This is probably due to the one-way air-sea interaction in the atmosphere-only model used for forecasting. While the prescribed surface temperature over the oceans remain realistic at shorter lead times, the pattern and hence the gradient of the surface temperature is not altered with change in atmospheric parameters at longer lead times. It has also been shown that the ECMWF model had considerable difficulties in forecasting very low and very heavy intensity of precipitation over South Asia. The model has too few grids with ``zero'' precipitation and heavy (>40 mm day(-1)) precipitation. On the other hand, drizzle-like precipitation is too frequent in the model compared to that in the TRMM datasets. Further analysis shows that a major source of error in the ECMWF precipitation forecasts is the diurnal cycle over the South Asian monsoon region. The peak intensity of precipitation in the model forecasts over land (ocean) appear about 6 (9) h earlier than that in the observations. Moreover, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much higher in the model forecasts compared to that in the TRMM estimates. It has been seen that the phase error of the diurnal cycle increases with forecast lead time. The error in monthly mean 3-hourly precipitation forecasts is about 2-4 times of the error in the daily mean datasets. Thus, effort should be given to improve the phase and amplitude forecast of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from the model.

Metal-Insulator Transition in the Hubbard Model on a Triangular Lattice

We discuss the results of an extensive mean-field investigation of the half-filled Hubbard model on a triangular lattice at zero temperature. At intermediate U we find a first-order metal-insulator transition from an incommensurate spiral magnetic metal to a semiconducting state with a commensurate linear spin density wave ordering stabilized by the competition between the kinetic energy and the frustrated nature of the magnetic interaction. At large U the ground state is that of a classical triangular antiferromagnet within our approximation. In the incommensurate spiral metallic phase the Fermi surface has parts in which the wave function renormalization Z is extremely small. The evolution of the Fermi surface and the broadening of the quasi-particle band along with the variation of the plasma frequency and a charge stiffness constant with U/t are discussed.

Spiral states in the square-lattice Hubbard model

We present a variety of physical implications of a mean-field theory for spiral spin-density-wave states in the square-lattice Hubbard model for small deviations from half filling. The phase diagram with the paramagnetic metal, two spiral (semimetallic) states, and ferromagnet is calculated. The momentum distribution function and the (quasiparticle) density of states are discussed. There is a significant broadening of the quasiparticle bands when the antiferromagnetic insulator is doped. The evolution of the Fermi surface and the variation of the plasma frequency and a charge-stiffness constant with U/t and δ are calculated. The connection to results based on the Schwinger-boson-slave-fermion formalism is made.

Radiative effects of aerosols at an urban location in southern India: Observations versus model

The radiative impact of aerosols is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimating anthropogenic climate perturbations. Here we have used independent ground-based radiometer measurements made simultaneously with comprehensive measurements of aerosol microphysical and optical properties at a highly populated urban site, Bangalore (13.02 degrees N, 77.6 degrees E) in southern India during a dedicated campaign during winter of 2004 and summer and pre-monsoon season of 2005. We have also used longer term measurements carried out at this site to present general features of aerosols over this region. The aerosol radiative impact assessments were made from direct measurements of ground reaching irradiance as well as by incorporating measured aerosol properties into a radiative transfer model. Large discrepancies were observed between measured and modeled (using radiative transfer models, which employed measured aerosol properties) radiative impacts. It appears that the presence of elevated aerosol layers and (or) inappropriate description of aerosol state of mixing are (is) responsible for the discrepancies. On a monthly scale reduction of surface irradiance due to the presence of aerosols (estimated using radiative flux measurements) varies from 30 to 65 W m(-2). The lowest values in surface radiative impact were observed during June when there is large reduction in aerosol as a consequence of monsoon rainfall. Large increase in aerosol-induced surface radiative impact was observed from winter to summer. Our investigations re-iterate the inadequacy of aerosol measurements at the surface alone and importance of representing column properties (using vertical profiles) accurately in order to assess aerosol-induced climate changes accurately. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model for static foam drainage

A model for static foam drainage, based on the pentagonal dodecahedral shape of bubbles, that takes into account the surface mobility of both films and Plateau border walls has been developed. The model divides the Plateau borders into nearly horizontal and nearly vertical categories and assigns different roles to them. The films are assumed to drain into all the adjacent Plateau borders equally. The horizontal Plateau borders are assumed to receive liquid from films and drain into vertical Plateau borders, which in turn form the main component for gravity drainage. The model yields the liquid holdup values for films, horizontal Plateau borders and vertical Plateau borders as functions of height and time. The model has been tested on static foams whose cumulative drainage was measured as a function of time. The experimental data on the effect of foam height, initial holdup, surface viscosity, etc. can be explained by the model quantitatively.

Aperiodic Variability in the Cane-Zebiak Model: A Diagnostic Study

The finite predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is determined by its aperiodic variability. To gain insight regarding the predictability of such a system, a series of diagnostic studies has been carried out to investigate the role of convergence feedback in producing the aperiodic behavior of the standard version of the Cane-Zebiak model. In this model, an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) increases atmospheric heating by enhancing local evaporation (SST anomaly feedback) and low-level convergence (convergence feedback). The convergence feedback is a nonlinear function of the background mean convergence field. For the set of standard parameters used in the model, it is shown that the convergence feedback contributes importantly to the aperiodic behaviour of the model. As the strength of the convergence feedback is increased from zero to its standard value, the model variability goes from a periodic regime to an aperiodic regime through a broadening of the frequency spectrum around the basic periodicity of about 4 years. Examination of the forcing associated with the convergence feedback reveals that it is intermittent, with relatively large amplitude only during 2 or 3 months in the early part of the calendar year. This seasonality in the efficiency of the convergence feedback is related to the strong seasonality of the mean convergence over the eastern Pacific. It is shown that if the mean convergence field is fixed at its March value, aperiodic behavior is produced even in the absence of annual cycles in the other mean fields. On the, other hand, if the mean convergence field is fixed at its September value, the coupled model evolution remains close to periodic, even in the presence of the annual cycle in the other fields. The role of convergence feedback on the aperiodic variability of the model for other parameter regimes is also examined. It is shown that a range exists in the strength of the SST anomaly feedback for which the model variability is aperiodic even without the convergence feedback. It appears that in the absence of convergence feedback, enhancement of the strength of the air-sea coupling in the model through other physical processes also results in aperiodicity in the model.

A Study on Effect of Wetting on Mechanism of Coalescence in a Model Coalescer

In order to depict the mechanism of coalescence in fibrous bed coalescers, a model coalescer was fabricated. Both water/oil and oil/water dispersions were run through this model coalescer to check for coalescence on PTFE and glass surfaces. The equilibrium contact angle and the dynamic contact angle of the dispersed drops were measured on these surfaces in the presence of the continuous phase. Coalescence was monitored using a microscope. Based on these observations a mechanism of coalescence in the model coalescer is proposed. Different modes of coalescence are correlated to the equilibrium contact angle and the dynamic contact angle. Deposition of dirt on the coalescing surface is observed to result in change of wettability, leading to redispersion of the already coalesced dispersed phase into larger droplets.

Meridional propagation of large-scale monsoon convective zones

Observational studies indicate that the convective activity of the monsoon systems undergo intraseasonal variations with multi-week time scales. The zone of maximum monsoon convection exhibits substantial transient behavior with successive propagating from the North Indian Ocean to the heated continent. Over South Asia the zone achieves its maximum intensity. These propagations may extend over 3000 km in latitude and perhaps twice the distance in longitude and remain as coherent entities for periods greater than 2-3 weeks. Attempts to explain this phenomena using simple ocean-atmosphere models of the monsoon system had concluded that the interactive ground hydrology so modifies the total heating of the atmosphere that a steady state solution is not possible, thus promoting lateral propagation. That is, the ground hydrology forces the total heating of the atmosphere and the vertical velocity to be slightly out of phase, causing a migration of the convection towards the region of maximum heating. Whereas the lateral scale of the variations produced by the Webster (1983) model were essentially correct, they occurred at twice the frequency of the observed events and were formed near the coastal margin, rather than over the ocean. Webster's (1983) model used to pose the theories was deficient in a number of aspects. Particularly, both the ground moisture content and the thermal inertia of the model were severely underestimated. At the same time, the sea surface temperatures produced by the model between the equator and the model's land-sea boundary were far too cool. Both the atmosphere and the ocean model were modified to include a better hydrological cycle and ocean structure. The convective events produced by the modified model possessed the observed frequency and were generated well south of the coastline. The improved simulation of monsoon variability allowed the hydrological cycle feedback to be generalized. It was found that monsoon variability was constrained to lie within the bounds of a positive gradient of a convective intensity potential (I). The function depends primarily on the surface temperature, the availability of moisture and the stability of the lower atmosphere which varies very slowly on the time scale of months. The oscillations of the monsoon perturb the mean convective intensity potential causing local enhancements of the gradient. These perturbations are caused by the hydrological feedbacks, discussed above, or by the modification of the air-sea fluxes caused by variations of the low level wind during convective events. The final result is the slow northward propagation of convection within an even slower convective regime. The ECMWF analyses show very similar behavior of the convective intensity potential. Although it is considered premature to use the model to conduct simulations of the African monsoon system, the ECMWF analysis indicates similar behavior in the convective intensity potential suggesting, at least, that the same processes control the low frequency structure of the African monsoon. The implications of the hypotheses on numerical weather prediction of monsoon phenomenon are discussed.

The Determination of the Surface Tensions of Liquid-Iron, Nickel and Iron-Nickel Alloys using the electromagnetic Oscillating Droplet Technique

An oscillating droplet method combined with electromagnetic levitation has been applied to determine the surface tensions of liquid pure iron, nickel and iron-nickel alloys as a function of the temperature. The natural frequency of the oscillating droplet is evaluated using a Fourier analyser. The theoretical background of this method and the experimental set-up were described, and the influence of magnetic field strength was also discussed. The experimental results were compared with those of other investigators and interpreted using theoretical models (Butler's equation, subregular and perfect solution model for the surface phase).

The Determination of the Surface Tensions of Nickel Sulfur Alloys using the Electromagnetic Oscillating Droplet Technique

An oscillating droplet method combined with electromagnetic levitation technique has been applied to determine the surface tensions of liquid nickel sulphur alloys as a function of the temperature and composition. The natural frequency of the oscillating droplet is evaluated using a Fourier analyser, and the influence of magnetic field strength on the surface tension was considered. Furthermore, the applicability of Butler's equation and subregular solution model for the surface was shown to predict the surface tension of the systems containing the surface active elements.

Mining Land Cover Information Using Multilayer Perceptron and Decision Tree from MODIS Data

Land cover (LC) changes play a major role in global as well as at regional scale patterns of the climate and biogeochemistry of the Earth system. LC information presents critical insights in understanding of Earth surface phenomena, particularly useful when obtained synoptically from remote sensing data. However, for developing countries and those with large geographical extent, regular LC mapping is prohibitive with data from commercial sensors (high cost factor) of limited spatial coverage (low temporal resolution and band swath). In this context, free MODIS data with good spectro-temporal resolution meet the purpose. LC mapping from these data has continuously evolved with advances in classification algorithms. This paper presents a comparative study of two robust data mining techniques, the multilayer perceptron (MLP) and decision tree (DT) on different products of MODIS data corresponding to Kolar district, Karnataka, India. The MODIS classified images when compared at three different spatial scales (at district level, taluk level and pixel level) shows that MLP based classification on minimum noise fraction components on MODIS 36 bands provide the most accurate LC mapping with 86% accuracy, while DT on MODIS 36 bands principal components leads to less accurate classification (69%).

Non-Fermi liquid behavior in a mean-field study of the t-J model: Role of zero-point spin fluctuations

We present analytic results to show that the Schwinger-boson hole-fermion mean-field state exhibits non-Fermi liquid behavior due to spin-charge separation. The physical electron Green's function consists of three additive components. (a) A Fermi-liquid component associated with the bose condensate. (b) A non-Fermi liquid component which has a logarithmic peak and a long tail that gives rise to a linear density of states that is symmetric about the Fermi level and a momentum distribution function with a logarithmic discontinuity at the Fermi surface. (c) A second non-Fermi liquid component associated with the thermal bosons which leads to a constant density of states. It is shown that zero-point fluctuations associated with the spin-degrees of freedom are responsible for the logarithmic instabilities and the restoration of particle-hole symmetry close to the Fermi surface.

Breakage of a drop of inviscid fluid due to a pressure fluctuation at its surface

In this work, an attempt is made to gain a better understanding of the breakage of low-viscosity drops in turbulent flows by determining the dynamics of deformation of an inviscid drop in response to a pressure variation acting on the drop surface. Known scaling relationships between wavenumbers and frequencies, and between pressure fluctuations and velocity fluctuations in the inertial subrange are used in characterizing the pressure fluctuation. The existence of a maximum stable drop diameter d(max) follows once scaling laws of turbulent flow are used to correlate the magnitude of the disruptive forces with the duration for which they act. Two undetermined dimensionless quantities, both of order unity, appear in the equations of continuity, motion, and the boundary conditions in terms of pressure fluctuations applied on the surface. One is a constant of proportionality relating root-mean-square values of pressure and velocity differences between two points separated by a distance l. The other is a Weber number based on turbulent stresses acting on the drop and the resisting stresses in the drop due to interfacial tension. The former is set equal to 1, and the latter is determined by studying the interaction of a drop of diameter equal to d(max) with a pressure fluctuation of length scale equal to the drop diameter. The model is then used to study the breakage of drops of diameter greater than d(max) and those with densities different from that of the suspending fluid. It is found that, at least during breakage of a drop of diameter greater than d(max) by interaction with a fluctuation of equal length scale, a satellite drop is always formed between two larger drops. When very large drops are broken by smaller-length-scale fluctuations, highly deformed shapes are produced suggesting the possibility of further fragmentation due to instabilities. The model predicts that as the dispersed-phase density increases, d(max) decreases.

Sponge phase transitions from a lattice model

We use Monte Carlo simulations to obtain thermodynamic functions and correlation functions in a lattice model we propose for sponge phases. We demonstrate that the surface-density correlation function dominates the scattering only along the symmetric-sponge (SS) to asymmetric-sponge (AS) phase boundary but not the boundary between the sponge-with-free-edges (SFE) and symmetric-sponge phases. At this second thermodynamic transition the scattering is dominated instead by an edge-density (or seam-density) correlation function. This prediction provides an unambiguous diagnostic for experiments in search of the SS-SFE transition.

The effect of surface mass transfer on buoyancy induced flow in a variable porosity medium adjacent to a vertical heated plate

The effect of surface mass transfer on buoyancy induced flow in a variable porosity medium adjacent to a heated vertical plate is studied for high Rayleigh numbers. Similarity solutions are obtained within the frame work of boundary layer theory for a power law variation in surface temperature,T Wpropx lambda and surface injectionv Wpropx(lambda–1/2). The analysis incorporates the expression connecting porosity and permeability and also the expression connecting porosity and effective thermal diffusivity. The influence of thermal dispersion on the flow and heat transfer characteristics are also analysed in detail. The results of the present analysis document the fact that variable porosity enhances heat transfer rate and the magnitude of velocity near the wall. The governing equations are solved using an implicit finite difference scheme for both the Darcy flow model and Forchheimer flow model, the latter analysis being confined to an isothermal surface and an impermeable vertical plate. The influence of the intertial terms in the Forchheimer model is to decrease the heat transfer and flow rates and the influence of thermal dispersion is to increase the heat transfer rate.