How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?

Feeding 9-10billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly outline the challenges, review the supply- and demand-side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade-offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand-side measures codeliver to aid food security. We conclude that while supply-side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand-side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand-side measures offer a greater potential (1.5-15.6Gt CO2-eq. yr(-1)) in meeting both challenges than do supply-side measures (1.5-4.3Gt CO2-eq. yr(-1) at carbon prices between 20 and 100US$ tCO(2)-eq. yr(-1)), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply-side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand-side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to codeliver to other policy agenda, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that addresses multiple objectives is required now more than ever.

On existence of periodic solutions for stable interval plants with odd, sector type nonlinearities

In several systems, the physical parameters of the system vary over time or operating points. A popular way of representing such plants with structured or parametric uncertainties is by means of interval polynomials. However, ensuring the stability of such systems is a robust control problem. Fortunately, Kharitonov's theorem enables the analysis of such interval plants and also provides tools for design of robust controllers in such cases. The present paper considers one such case, where the interval plant is connected with a timeinvariant, static, odd, sector type nonlinearity in its feedback path. This paper provides necessary conditions for the existence of self sustaining periodic oscillations in such interval plants, and indicates a possible design algorithm to avoid such periodic solutions or limit cycles. The describing function technique is used to approximate the nonlinearity and subsequently arrive at the results. Furthermore, the value set approach, along with Mikhailov conditions, are resorted to in providing graphical techniques for the derivation of the conditions and subsequent design algorithm of the controller.

A simple model for spatial disaggregation of evaporative fraction: Comparative study with thermal sharpened land surface temperature data over India

[1] Evaporative fraction (EF) is a measure of the amount of available energy at the earth surface that is partitioned into latent heat flux. The currently operational thermal sensors like the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on satellite platforms provide data only at 1000 m, which constraints the spatial resolution of EF estimates. A simple model (disaggregation of evaporative fraction (DEFrac)) based on the observed relationship between EF and the normalized difference vegetation index is proposed to spatially disaggregate EF. The DEFrac model was tested with EF estimated from the triangle method using 113 clear sky data sets from the MODIS sensor aboard Terra and Aqua satellites. Validation was done using the data at four micrometeorological tower sites across varied agro-climatic zones possessing different land cover conditions in India using Bowen ratio energy balance method. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) of EF estimated at 1000 m resolution using the triangle method was 0.09 for all the four sites put together. The RMSE of DEFrac disaggregated EF was 0.09 for 250 m resolution. Two models of input disaggregation were also tried with thermal data sharpened using two thermal sharpening models DisTrad and TsHARP. The RMSE of disaggregated EF was 0.14 for both the input disaggregation models for 250 m resolution. Moreover, spatial analysis of disaggregation was performed using Landsat-7 (Enhanced Thematic Mapper) ETM+ data over four grids in India for contrasted seasons. It was observed that the DEFrac model performed better than the input disaggregation models under cropped conditions while they were marginally similar under non-cropped conditions.

Seismic microzonation of a nuclear power plant site with detailed geotechnical, geophysical and site effect studies

This paper highlights the seismic microzonation carried out for a nuclear power plant site. Nuclear power plants are considered to be one of the most important and critical structures designed to withstand all natural disasters. Seismic microzonation is a process of demarcating a region into individual areas having different levels of various seismic hazards. This will help in identifying regions having high seismic hazard which is vital for engineering design and land-use planning. The main objective of this paper is to carry out the seismic microzonation of a nuclear power plant site situated in the east coast of South India, based on the spatial distribution of the hazard index value. The hazard index represents the consolidated effect of all major earthquake hazards and hazard influencing parameters. The present work will provide new directions for assessing the seismic hazards of new power plant sites in the country. Major seismic hazards considered for the evaluation of the hazard index are (1) intensity of ground shaking at bedrock, (2) site amplification, (3) liquefaction potential and (4) the predominant frequency of the earthquake motion at the surface. The intensity of ground shaking in terms of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) was estimated for the study area using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches with logic tree methodology. The site characterization of the study area has been carried out using the multichannel analysis of surface waves test and available borehole data. One-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out at major locations within the study area for evaluating PHA and spectral accelerations at the ground surface. Based on the standard penetration test data, deterministic as well as probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis has been carried out for the entire study area. Finally, all the major earthquake hazards estimated above, and other significant parameters representing local geology were integrated using the analytic hierarchy process and hazard index map for the study area was prepared. Maps showing the spatial variation of seismic hazards (intensity of ground shaking, liquefaction potential and predominant frequency) and hazard index are presented in this work.

Context dependency of rewards and services in an Indian ant-plant interaction: southern sites favour the mutualism between plants and ants

Protection-based ant-plant mutualisms may vary in strength due to differences in ant rewards, abundance of protective ants and herbivory pressure. We investigated geographical and temporal variation in host plant traits and herbivory pressure at five sites spanning the distribution range of the myrmecophyte Humboldtia brunonis (Fabaceae) in the Indian Western Ghats. Southern siteshad, onaverage, 2.4 times greater abundance of domatia-bearing individuals, 1.6 times greater extrafloral nectary numbers per leaf, 1.2 times larger extrafloral nectary sizes, 2.2 times greater extrafloral nectar (EFN) volumes and a two-fold increase in total amino acid and total sugar concentrations in EFN compared with northern sites. Astrong protection-based mutualismwith ants occurred at only one southern site where herbivory was highest, suggesting that investments in attracting ants correlate with anti-herbivore benefits gained from the presence of protective ants. Our results confirm a temporally stable north-south gradient in myrmecophytic traits in this ant-plant as several of these traits were re-sampled after a 5-y interval. However, the chemical composition of EFN varied at both spatial and short-term temporal scales suggesting that only repeated measurements of rewards such as EFN can reveal the real spectrum of trait variation in an ant-plant mutualistic system.

Co-benefits, trade-offs, barriers and policies for greenhouse gas mitigation in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector

The agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector is responsible for approximately 25% of anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation and agricultural emissions from livestock, soil and nutrient management. Mitigation from the sector is thus extremely important in meeting emission reduction targets. The sector offers a variety of cost-competitive mitigation options with most analyses indicating a decline in emissions largely due to decreasing deforestation rates. Sustainability criteria are needed to guide development and implementation of AFOLU mitigation measures with particular focus on multifunctional systems that allow the delivery of multiple services from land. It is striking that almost all of the positive and negative impacts, opportunities and barriers are context specific, precluding generic statements about which AFOLU mitigation measures have the greatest promise at a global scale. This finding underlines the importance of considering each mitigation strategy on a case-by-case basis, systemic effects when implementing mitigation options on the national scale, and suggests that policies need to be flexible enough to allow such assessments. National and international agricultural and forest (climate) policies have the potential to alter the opportunity costs of specific land uses in ways that increase opportunities or barriers for attaining climate change mitigation goals. Policies governing practices in agriculture and in forest conservation and management need to account for both effective mitigation and adaptation and can help to orient practices in agriculture and in forestry towards global sharing of innovative technologies for the efficient use of land resources. Different policy instruments, especially economic incentives and regulatory approaches, are currently being applied however, for its successful implementation it is critical to understand how land-use decisions are made and how new social, political and economic forces in the future will influence this process.

Contrasting geochemical signatures on land from the Middle and Late Permian extinction events

The end of the Palaeozoic is marked by two mass-extinction events during the Middle Permian (Capitanian) and the Late Permian (Changhsingian). Given similarities between the two events in geochemical signatures, such as large magnitude negative C-13 anomalies, sedimentological signatures such as claystone breccias, and the approximate contemporaneous emplacement of large igneous provinces, many authors have sought a common causal mechanism. Here, a new high-resolution continental record of the Capitanian event from Portal Mountain, Antarctica, is compared with previously published Changhsingian records of geochemical signatures of weathering intensity and palaeoclimatic change. Geochemical means of discriminating sedimentary provenance (Ti/Al, U/Th and La/Ce ratios) all indicate a common provenance for the Portal Mountain sediments and associated palaeosols, so changes spanning the Capitanian extinction represent changes in weathering intensity rather than sediment source. Proxies for weathering intensity chemical index of alteration, W and rare earth element accumulation all decline across the Capitanian extinction event at Portal Mountain, which is in contrast to the increased weathering recorded globally at the Late Permian extinction. Furthermore, palaeoclimatic proxies are consistent with unchanging or cooler climatic conditions throughout the Capitanian event, which contrasts with Changhsingian records that all indicate a significant syn-extinction and post-extinction series of greenhouse warming events. Although both the Capitanian and Changhsingian event records indicate significant redox shifts, palaeosol geochemistry of the Changhsingian event indicates more reducing conditions, whereas the new Capitanian record of reduced trace metal abundances (Cr, Cu, Ni and Ce) indicates more oxidizing conditions. Taken together, the differences in weathering intensity, redox and the lack of evidence for significant climatic change in the new record suggest that the Capitanian mass extinction was not triggered by dyke injection of coal-beds, as in the Changhsingian extinction, and may instead have been triggered directly by the Emeishan large igneous province or by the interaction of Emeishan basalts with platform carbonates.

A Brushless Wound Rotor Induction Generator for Variable Speed Microhydel Plants Without Ballast Load

A new generator topology for microhydel power plants, capable of unsupervised operation, is proposed. While conventional microhydel plants operate at constant speed with switched ballast loads, the proposed generator, based on the wound rotor induction machine, operates at variable speed and does away with the need for ballast loads. This increases reliability and substantially decreases system costs and setup times. The proposed generator has a simplified decoupled control structure with stator-referenced voltage control similar to a conventional synchronous generator, and rotor-side frequency control that is facilitated by rotating electronics mounted on the rotor. While this paper describes an isolated plant, the topology can also be tailored for distributed generation enabling conversion of the available hydraulic power into useful electrical power when the grid is present, and supplying local loads in the event of grid outage.

Assessment of land surface temperature and heat fluxes over Delhi using remote sensing data

Surface energy processes has an essential role in urban weather, climate and hydrosphere cycles, as well in urban heat redistribution. The research was undertaken to analyze the potential of Landsat and MODIS data in retrieving biophysical parameters in estimating land surface temperature & heat fluxes diurnally in summer and winter seasons of years 2000 and 2010 and understanding its effect on anthropogenic heat disturbance over Delhi and surrounding region. Results show that during years 2000-2010, settlement and industrial area increased from 5.66 to 11.74% and 4.92 to 11.87% respectively which in turn has direct effect on land surface temperature (LST) and heat fluxes including anthropogenic heat flux. Based on the energy balance model for land surface, a method to estimate the increase in anthropogenic heat flux (Has) has been proposed. The settlement and industrial areas has higher amounts of energy consumed and has high values of Has in all seasons. The comparison of satellite derived LST with that of field measured values show that Landsat estimated values are in close agreement within error of 2 degrees C than MODIS with an error of 3 degrees C. It was observed that, during 2000 and 2010, the average change in surface temperature using Landsat over settlement & industrial areas of both seasons is 1.4 degrees C & for MODIS data is 3.7 degrees C. The seasonal average change in anthropogenic heat flux (Has) estimated using Landsat & MODIS is up by around 38 W/m(2) and 62 W/m(2) respectively while higher change is observed over settlement and concrete structures. The study reveals that the dynamic range of Has values has increased in the 10 year period due to the strong anthropogenic influence over the area. The study showed that anthropogenic heat flux is an indicator of the strength of urban heat island effect, and can be used to quantify the magnitude of the urban heat island effect. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regeneration of Juvenile Woody Plants after Fire in a Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest of Southern India

Woody tree species in seasonally dry tropical forests are known to have traits that help them to recover from recurring disturbances such as fire. Two such traits are resprouting and rapid post-fire growth. We compared survival and growth rates of regenerating small-sized individuals (juveniles) of woody tree species after dry season fire (February-March) at eight adjacent pairs of burnt and unburnt transects in a seasonally dry tropical forest in southern India. Juveniles were monitored at 3-mo intervals between August 2009 and August 2010. High juvenile survivorship (>95%) was observed in both burnt and unburnt areas. Growth rates of juveniles, analyzed at the community level as well as for a few species individually (especially fast-growing ones), were distinctly higher in burnt areas compared to unburnt areas after a fire event, particularly during the pre-monsoon season immediately after a fire. Rapid growth by juveniles soon after a fire may be due to lowered competition from other vegetative forms such as grasses, possibly aided by the availability of resources stored belowground. Such an adaptation would allow a juvenile bank to be retained in the understory of a dry forest, from where individuals can grow to a possible fire-tolerant size during favorable conditions.

Prediction of Land Surface Temperature under Cloudy Conditions using Microwave Remote Sensing and ANN

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important variable in climate, hydrologic, ecological, biophysical and biochemical studies (Mildrexler et al., 2011). The most effective way to obtain LST measurements is through satellites. Presently, LST from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor is applied in various fields due to its high spatial and temporal availability over the globe, but quite difficult to provide observations in cloudy conditions. This study evolves of prediction of LST under clear and cloudy conditions using microwave vegetation indices (MVIs), elevation, latitude, longitude and Julian day as inputs employing an artificial neural network (ANN) model. MVIs can be obtained even under cloudy condition, since microwave radiation has an ability to penetrate through clouds. In this study LST and MVIs data of the year 2010 for the Cauvery basin on a daily basis were obtained from MODIS and advanced microwave scanning radiometer (AMSR-E) sensors of aqua satellite respectively. Separate ANN models were trained and tested for the grid cells for which both LST and MVI were available. The performance of the models was evaluated based on standard evaluation measures. The best performing model was used to predict LST where MVIs were available. Results revealed that predictions of LST using ANN are in good agreement with the observed values. The ANN approach presented in this study promises to be useful for predicting LST using satellite observations even in cloudy conditions. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

How mutualisms between plants and insects are stabilized

While the idea of cooperation between individuals of a species has received considerable attention, how mutualistic interactions between species can be protected from cheating by partners in the interaction has only recently been examined from theoretical and empirical perspectives. This paper is a selective review of the recent literature on host sanctions, partner-fidelity feedback and the concept of punishment in such mutualisms. It describes new ideas, borrowed from microeconomics, such as screening theory with and without competition between potential partners for a host. It explores mutualism-stabilizing mechanisms using examples from interactions between figs and fig wasps, and those between ants and plants. It suggests new avenues for research.

Modelling the influence of land-use changes on biophysical and biochemical interactions at regional and global scales

Land-use changes since the start of the industrial era account for nearly one-third of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In addition to the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions, changes in land use also affect climate via changes in surface physical properties such as albedo, evapotranspiration and roughness length. Recent modelling studies suggest that these biophysical components may be comparable with biochemical effects. In regard to climate change, the effects of these two distinct processes may counterbalance one another both regionally and, possibly, globally. In this article, through hypothetical large-scale deforestation simulations using a global climate model, we contrast the implications of afforestation on ameliorating or enhancing anthropogenic contributions from previously converted (agricultural) land surfaces. Based on our review of past studies on this subject, we conclude that the sum of both biophysical and biochemical effects should be assessed when large-scale afforestation is used for countering global warming, and the net effect on global mean temperature change depends on the location of deforestation/afforestation. Further, although biochemical effects trigger global climate change, biophysical effects often cause strong local and regional climate change. The implication of the biophysical effects for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in agriculture and agroforestry sectors is discussed. center dot Land-use changes affect global and regional climates through both biochemical and biophysical process. center dot Climate effect from biophysical process depends on the location of land-use change. center dot Climate mitigation strategies such as afforestation/reforestation should consider the net effect of biochemical and biophysical processes for effective mitigation. center dot Climate-smart agriculture could use bio-geoengineering techniques that consider plant biophysical characteristics such as reflectivity and water use efficiency.

Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow

Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.