Methodology for Pavement Design Reliability and Back Analysis Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation

Given the increasing cost of designing and building new highway pavements, reliability analysis has become vital to ensure that a given pavement performs as expected in the field. Recognizing the importance of failure analysis to safety, reliability, performance, and economy, back analysis has been employed in various engineering applications to evaluate the inherent uncertainties of the design and analysis. The probabilistic back analysis method formulated on Bayes' theorem and solved using the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method with a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm has proved to be highly efficient to address this issue. It is also quite flexible and is applicable to any type of prior information. In this paper, this method has been used to back-analyze the parameters that influence the pavement life and to consider the uncertainty of the mechanistic-empirical pavement design model. The load-induced pavement structural responses (e.g., stresses, strains, and deflections) used to predict the pavement life are estimated using the response surface methodology model developed based on the results of linear elastic analysis. The failure criteria adopted for the analysis were based on the factor of safety (FOS), and the study was carried out for different sample sizes and jumping distributions to estimate the most robust posterior statistics. From the posterior statistics of the case considered, it was observed that after approximately 150 million standard axle load repetitions, the mean values of the pavement properties decrease as expected, with a significant decrease in the values of the elastic moduli of the expected layers. An analysis of the posterior statistics indicated that the parameters that contribute significantly to the pavement failure were the moduli of the base and surface layer, which is consistent with the findings from other studies. After the back analysis, the base modulus parameters show a significant decrease of 15.8% and the surface layer modulus a decrease of 3.12% in the mean value. The usefulness of the back analysis methodology is further highlighted by estimating the design parameters for specified values of the factor of safety. The analysis revealed that for the pavement section considered, a reliability of 89% and 94% can be achieved by adopting FOS values of 1.5 and 2, respectively. The methodology proposed can therefore be effectively used to identify the parameters that are critical to pavement failure in the design of pavements for specified levels of reliability. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000455. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

QCD mini-jets contribution to the total cross-section for pions and protons and expectations at LHC

We describe our kt-resummation model for total cross-sections and show its application to pp and ¯pp scattering. The model uses mini-jets to drive the rise of the cross-section and soft gluon resummation in the infrared region to transform the violent rise of the mini-jet cross-section into a logarithmic behaviour in agreement with the Froissart bound.

Strain localization effect on system reliability based design of bridge abutments under earthquake loading

The component and system reliability based design of bridge abutments under earthquake loading is presented in the paper. Planar failure surface has been used in conjunction with pseudo-dynamic approach to compute seismic active earth pressures on an abutment. The pseudo-dynamic method, considers the effect of phase difference in shear waves, soil amplification along with the horizontal seismic accelerations, strain localization in backfill soil and associated post-peak reduction in the shear resistance from peak to residual values along a previously formed failure plane. Four modes of stability viz. sliding, overturning, eccentricity and bearing capacity of the foundation soil are considered in the analysis. The series system reliability is computed with an assumption of independent failure modes. The lower and upper bounds of system reliability are also computed by taking into account the correlations between four failure modes, which is evaluated using the direction cosines of the tangent planes at the most probable points of failure.

Effect of leachate recirculation and extent of degradation on the stability of bioreactor landfill slopes

The stability of a bioreactor landfill slope is influenced by the quantity and method of leachate recirculation as well as on the degree of decomposition. Other factors include properties variation of waste material and geometrical configurations, i.e., height and slope of landfills. Conventionally, the stability of slopes is evaluated using factor of safety approach, in which the variability in the engineering properties of MSW is not considered directly and stability issues are resolved from past experiences and good engineering judgments. On the other hand, probabilistic approach considers variability in mathematical framework and provides stability in a rational manner that helps in decision making. The objective of the present study is to perform a parametric study on the stability of a bioreactor landfill slope in probabilistic framework considering important influencing factors, such as, variation in MSW properties, amount of leachate recirculation, and age of degradation, in a systematic manner. The results are discussed in the light of existing relevant regulations, design and operation issues.

Influence of strain localization on reliability based design of bridge abutments using pseudo-dynamic method

The paper focuses on reliability based design of bridge abutments when subjected to earthquake loading. Planar failure surface has been used in conjunction with pseudo-dynamic approach to compute the seismic active earth pressures on the bridge abutment. The proposed pseudo dynamic method, considers the effects of strain localization in the backfill soil and associated post-peak reduction in the shear resistance from peak to residual values along a previously formed failure plane, phase difference in shear waves and soil amplification along with the horizontal seismic accelerations. Four modes of stability viz. sliding, overturning, eccentricity and bearing capacity of the foundation soil are considered for the reliability analysis. The influence of various design parameters on the seismic reliability indices against four modes of failure is presented, following the suggestions of Japan Road Association, Caltrans Bridge Design Specifications and U.S Department of the Army.

Electrocatalytic oxidation of C-3-aliphatic alcohols on electrodeposited Pd-PEDOT nanodendrites in Alkaline medium

Nanodendritic Pd is electrodeposited on poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) (PEDOT) coated carbon paper electrode. Electrodeposited Pd is non-dendritic in the absence of PEDOT. The electrooxidation of C-3-aliphatic alcohols, namely, propanol (PA), 1,2- propanediol (1, 2-PD), 1, 3-propanediol (1, 3-PD), and glycerol (GL) is studied in 1.0 M NaOH. The catalytic activity of nanodendritic Pd is greater than that of non-dendritic Pd for oxidation of the four alcohols molecules. Among those molecules the oxidation rate increases as: PA< 1, 2-PD < 1, 3-PD < GL. The cyclic voltammetric oxidation current peak appearing in the reverse direction of the sweep is greatly influenced by the nature of alcohol. The reduction of oxide film on Pd surface is attributed to affect the magnitude of backward peak current density. The amperometry and repeated cyclic voltammetry data suggest a high stability of nanodendritic Pd in alkaline medium. Glycerol is expected to be an appropriate alcohol for application as a fuel in alkaline fuel cells at nanodendritic electrodeposited Pd.

System Reliability Analysis of Flexible Pavements

The uncertainty in material properties and traffic characterization in the design of flexible pavements has led to significant efforts in recent years to incorporate reliability methods and probabilistic design procedures for the design, rehabilitation, and maintenance of pavements. In the mechanistic-empirical (ME) design of pavements, despite the fact that there are multiple failure modes, the design criteria applied in the majority of analytical pavement design methods guard only against fatigue cracking and subgrade rutting, which are usually considered as independent failure events. This study carries out the reliability analysis for a flexible pavement section for these failure criteria based on the first-order reliability method (FORM) and the second-order reliability method (SORM) techniques and the crude Monte Carlo simulation. Through a sensitivity analysis, the most critical parameter affecting the design reliability for both fatigue and rutting failure criteria was identified as the surface layer thickness. However, reliability analysis in pavement design is most useful if it can be efficiently and accurately applied to components of pavement design and the combination of these components in an overall system analysis. The study shows that for the pavement section considered, there is a high degree of dependence between the two failure modes, and demonstrates that the probability of simultaneous occurrence of failures can be almost as high as the probability of component failures. Thus, the need to consider the system reliability in the pavement analysis is highlighted, and the study indicates that the improvement of pavement performance should be tackled in the light of reducing this undesirable event of simultaneous failure and not merely the consideration of the more critical failure mode. Furthermore, this probability of simultaneous occurrence of failures is seen to increase considerably with small increments in the mean traffic loads, which also results in wider system reliability bounds. The study also advocates the use of narrow bounds to the probability of failure, which provides a better estimate of the probability of failure, as validated from the results obtained from Monte Carlo simulation (MCS).

Approach for the use of MSW settlement predictions in the assessment of landfill capacity based on reliability analysis

In the analysis and design of municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills, there are many uncertainties associated with the properties of MSW during and after MSW placement. Several studies are performed involving different laboratory and field tests to understand the complex behavior and properties of MSW, and based on these studies, different models are proposed for the analysis of time dependent settlement response of MSW. For the analysis of MSW settlement, it is very important to account for the variability of model parameters that reflect different processes such as primary compression under loading, mechanical creep and biodegradation. In this paper, regression equations based on response surface method (RSM) are used to represent the complex behavior of MSW using a newly developed constitutive model. An approach to assess landfill capacities and develop landfill closure plans based on prediction of landfill settlements is proposed. The variability associated with model parameters relating to primary compression, mechanical creep and biodegradation are used to examine their influence on MSW settlement using reliability analysis framework and influence of various parameters on the settlement of MSW are estimated through sensitivity analysis. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of Spatial Variation of Hydraulic Conductivity of Municipal Solid Waste on Performance of Bioreactor Landfill

The current study analyzes the leachate distribution in the Orchard Hills Landfill, Davis Junction, Illinois, using a two-phase flow model to assess the influence of variability in hydraulic conductivity on the effectiveness of the existing leachate recirculation system and its operations through reliability analysis. Numerical modeling, using finite-difference code, is performed with due consideration to the spatial variation of hydraulic conductivity of the municipal solid waste (MSW). The inhomogeneous and anisotropic waste condition is assumed because it is a more realistic representation of the MSW. For the reliability analysis, the landfill is divided into 10 MSW layers with different mean values of vertical and horizontal hydraulic conductivities (decreasing from top to bottom), and the parametric study is performed by taking the coefficients of variation (COVs) as 50, 100, 150, and 200%. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to obtain statistical information (mean and COV) of output parameters of the (1) wetted area of the MSW, (2) maximum induced pore pressure, and (3) leachate outflow. The results of the reliability analysis are used to determine the influence of hydraulic conductivity on the effectiveness of the leachate recirculation and are discussed in the light of a deterministic approach. The study is useful in understanding the efficiency of the leachate recirculation system. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

A model for probing large distance behaviour in high energy collisions

We apply to total cross-sections our model for soft gluon resummation in the infrared region. The model aims to probe large distance interactions in QCD. Our ansatz for an effective coupling for gluons and quarks in the infrared region follows an inverse power law which is singular but integrable. In the context of an eikonal formalism with QCD mini-jets, we study total hadronic cross-sections for protons, pions, photons. We estimate the total inelastic cross-section at LHC comparing with recent measurements and update previous results for survival probability.

Target reliability-based optimisation for internal seismic stability of reinforced soil structures

In this paper, an approach for target component and system reliability-based design optimisation (RBDO) to evaluate safety for the internal seismic stability of geosynthetic-reinforced soil (GRS) structures is presented. Three modes of failure are considered: tension failure of the bottom-most layer of reinforcement, pullout failure of the topmost layer of reinforcement, and total pullout failure of all reinforcement layers. The analysis is performed by treating backfill properties, geometric and strength properties of reinforcement as random variables. The optimum number of reinforcement layers and optimum pullout length needed to maintain stability against tension failure, pullout failure and total pullout failure for different coefficients of variation of friction angle of the backfill, design strength of the reinforcement and horizontal seismic acceleration coefficients by targeting various system reliability indices are proposed. The results provide guidelines for the total length of reinforcement required, considering the variability of backfill as well as seismic coefficients. One illustrative example is presented to explain the evaluation of reliability for internal stability of reinforced soil structures using the proposed approach. In the second illustration (the stability of five walls), the Kushiro wall subjected to the Kushiro-Oki earthquake, the Seiken wall subjected to the Chiba-ken Toho-Oki earthquake, the Ta Kung wall subjected to the Ji-Ji earthquake, and the Gould and Valencia walls subjected to Northridge earthquake are re-examined.

Response of vertically loaded pile in clay: a probabilistic study

This study presents the response of a vertically loaded pile in undrained clay considering spatially distributed undrained shear strength. The probabilistic study is performed considering undrained shear strength as random variable and the analysis is conducted using random field theory. The inherent soil variability is considered as source of variability and the field is modeled as two dimensional non-Gaussian homogeneous random field. Random field is simulated using Cholesky decomposition technique within the finite difference program and Monte Carlo simulation approach is considered for the probabilistic analysis. The influence of variance and spatial correlation of undrained shear strength on the ultimate capacity as summation of ultimate skin friction and end bearing resistance of pile are examined. It is observed that the coefficient of variation and spatial correlation distance are the most important parameters that affect the pile ultimate capacity.

Analytical model for stress-strain response of plastic waste mixed soil

Recycling plastic water bottles has become one of the major challenges world wide. The present study provides an approach for the use of plastic waste as reinforcement material in soil, which can be used for ground improvement, subbases, and subgrade preparation in road construction. The experimental results are presented in the form of stress-strain-pore water pressure response and compression paths. On the basis of experimental test results, it is observed that the strength of soil is improved and compressibility reduced significantly with the addition of a small percentage of plastic waste to the soil. In this paper, an analytical model is proposed to evaluate the response of plastic waste mixed soil. It is noted that the model captures the stress-strain and pore water pressure response of all percentages of plastic waste adequately. The paper also provides a comparative study of failure stress obtained from different published models and the proposed model, which are compared with experimental results. The improvement in strength attributable to the inclusion of plastic waste can be advantageously used in ground improvement projects.

Structural, Electrical and Magnetic Behaviour of FeTe0.5Se0.5 Superconductor

We report the synthesis as well as structural and physical properties of the bulk polycrystalline FeTe and FeTe0.5Se0.5 compounds. These samples are synthesised by the solid state-reaction method via vacuum encapsulation. Both studied compounds are crystallized in a tetragonal phase with space group P4/nmm. The parent FeTe compound shows an anomaly in resistivity measurement at around 78 K, which is due to the structural change along with a magnetic phase transition. The superconductivity in the FeTe0.5Se0.5 sample at 13 K is confirmed by the resistivity measurements. DC magnetisation along with an isothermal (M-H) loop shows that FeTe0.5Se0.5 possesses bulk superconductivity. The upper critical field is estimated through resistivity rho (T,H) measurements using Gingzburg-Landau (GL) theory and is above 50 T with 50 % resistivity drop criterion. The origin of the resistive transition broadening under magnetic field is investigated by thermally activated flux flow. The magnetic field dependence of the activation energy of the flux motion is discussed.