On breaks of the Indian monsoon

For over a century, the term break has been used for spells in which the rainfall over the Indian monsoon zone is interrupted. The phenomenon of 'break monsoon' is of great interest because long intense breaks are often associated with poor monsoon seasons. Such breaks have distinct circulation characteristics (heat trough type circulation) and have a large impact on rainfed agriculture. Although interruption of the monsoon rainfall is considered to be the most important feature of the break monsoon, traditionally breaks have been identified on the basis of the surface pressure and wind patterns over the Indian region. We have defined breaks (and active spells) on the basis of rainfall over the monsoon zone. The rainfall criteria are chosen so as to ensure a large overlap with the traditional breaks documented by Ramamurthy (1969) and De et al (1998). We have identified these rainbreaks for 1901-89. We have also identified active spells on the basis of rainfall over the Indian monsoon zone. We have shown that the all-India summer monsoon rainfall is significantly negatively correlated with the number of rainbreak days (correlation coefficient -0.56) and significantly positively correlated with the number of active days (correlation coefficient 0.47). Thus the interannual variation of the all-India summer monsoon rainfall is shown to be related to the number of days of rainbreaks and active spells identified here. There have been several studies of breaks (and also active spells in several cases) identified on the basis of different criteria over regions differing in spatial scales (e.g., Webster et al 1998; Krishnan et al 2000; Goswami and Mohan 2000; and Annamalai and Slingo 2001). We find that there is considerable overlap between the rainbreaks we have identified and breaks based on the traditional definition. There is some overlap with the breaks identified by Krishnan et al (2000) but little overlap with breaks identified by Webster et al (1998). Further, there are three or four active-break cycles in a season according to Webster et al (1998) which implies a time scale of about 40 days for which Goswami and Mohan (2000), and Annamalai and Slingo'(2001) have studied breaks and active minus break fluctuations. On the other hand, neither the traditional breaks (Ramamurthy 1969; and De et al 1998) nor the rainbreaks occur every year. This suggests that the 'breaks' in these studies axe weak spells of the intraseasonal variation of the monsoon, which occur every year. We have derived the OLR and circulation patterns associated with rainbreaks and active spells and compared them with the patterns associated with breaks/active minus break spells from these studies. Inspite of differences in the patterns over the Indian region, there is one feature which is seen in the OLR anomaly patterns of breaks identified on the basis of different criteria as well as the rainbreaks identified in this paper viz., a quadrapole over the Asia-west Pacific region arising from anomalies opposite (same) in sign to those over the Indian region occurring over the equatorial Indian Ocean and northern tropical (equatorial) parts of the west Pacific. Thus it appears that this quadrapole is a basic feature of weak spells of the intraseasonal,variation over the Asia-west Pacific region. Since the rainbreaks are intense weak spells, this basic feature is also seen in the composite patterns of these breaks. We find that rainbreaks (active spells) are also associated with negative (positive) anomalies over a part of the cast Pacific suggesting that the convection over the Indian region is linked to that over the east Pacific not only on the interannual scale (as evinced by the link between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and ENSO) but on the intraseasonal scale as well.

Sustainable biomass production for energy in selected Asian countries

This paper presents a synthesis of assessment of sustainable biomass production potential in six Asian countries-China, India, Malaysia, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Thailand, and is based on the detailed studies carried out in these countries under the Asian Regional Research Programme in Energy, Environment and Climate (ARRPEEC). National level studies were undertaken to estimate land availability for biomass production, identify and evaluate the biomass production options in terms of yield per hectare and financial viability, estimate sustainable biomass production for energy, and estimate the energy potential of biomass production in the six Asian countries. Sustainable biomass production from plantation is estimated to be in the range of 182.5-210.5, 62-310, 0.4-1.7, 3.7-20.4, 2.0-9.9 and 11.6-106.6 Mt yr(-1) for China, India, Malaysia, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Thailand, respectively. The maximum annual electricity generation potential, using advanced technologies, from the sustainable biomass production is estimated to be about 27, 114, 4.5, 79, 254 and 195 percentage of the total electricity generation in year 2000 in China, India, Malaysia, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Thailand, respectively. Investment cost for bioenergy production varies from US$381 to 1842 ha(-1) in the countries considered in this study; investment cost for production of biomass varies from US$5.1 to 23 t(-1). (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Indian monsoon and its variability

For over 300 years, the monsoon has been viewed as a gigantic land-sea breeze. It is shown in this paper that satellite and conventional observations support an alternative hypothesis, which considers the monsoon as a manifestation of seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). With the focus on the Indian monsoon, the mean seasonal pattern is described, and why it is difficult to simulate it is discussed. Some facets of the intraseasonal variation, such as active-weak cycles; break monsoon; and a special feature of intraseasonal variation over the region, namely, poleward propagations of the ITCZ at intervals of 2-6 weeks, are considered. Vertical moist stability is shown to be a key parameter in the variation of monthly convection over ocean and land as well as poleward propagations. Special features of the Bay of Bengal and the monsoon brought out by observations during a national observational experiment in 1999 are briefly described.

Modeling Indian Ocean circulation: Bay of Bengal fresh water plume and the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool

The Indian subcontinent divides the north Indian Ocean into two tropical basins, namely the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The Arabian Sea has high salinity whereas the salinity of the Bay of Bengal is much lower due to the contrast in freshwater forcing of the two basins. The freshwater received by the Bay in large amounts during the summer monsoon through river discharge is flushed out annually by ocean circulation. After the withdrawal of the summer monsoon, the Ganga – Brahmaputra river plume flows first along the Indian coast and then around Sri Lanka into the Arabian Sea creating a low salinity pool in the southeastern Arabian Sea (SEAS). In the same region, during the pre-monsoon months of February – April, a warm pool, known as the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (ASMWP), which is distinctly warmer than the rest of the Indian Ocean, takes shape. In fact, this is the warmest region in the world oceans during this period. Simulation of the river plume and its movement as well as its implications to thermodynamics has been a challenging problem for models of Indian Ocean. Here we address these issues using an ocean general circulation model – first we show that the model is capable of reproducing fresh plumes in the Bay of Bengal as well as its movement and then we use the model to determine the processes that lead to formation of the ASMWP. Hydrographic observations from the western Bay of Bengal have shown the presence of a fresh plume along the northern part of the Indian coast during summer monsoon. The Indian Ocean model when forced by realistic winds and climatological river discharge reproduces the fresh plume with reasonable accuracy. The fresh plume does not advect along the Indian coast until the end of summer monsoon. The North Bay Monsoon Current, which flows eastward in the northern Bay, separates the low salinity water from the more saline southern parts of the bay and thus plays an important role in the fresh water budget of the Bay of Bengal. The model also reproduces the surge of the fresh-plume along the Indian coast, into the Arabian Sea during northeast monsoon. Mechanisms that lead to the formation of the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool are investigated using several numerical experiments. Contrary to the existing theories, we find that salinity effects are not necessary for the formation of the ASMWP. The orographic effects of the Sahyadris (Western Ghats) and resulting reduction in wind speed leads to the formation of the ASMWP. During November – April, the SEAS behave as a low-wind heatdominated regime where the evolution of sea surface temperature is solely determined by atmospheric forcing. In such regions the evolution of surface layer temperature is not dependent on the characteristics of the subsurface ocean such as the barrier layer and temperature inversion.

Assessment of estrus cyclicity in the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) by measurement of fecal progesterone metabolite 5 alpha-P-3OH, using a non-invasive assay

Reproductive management of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) is important for its conservation. To monitor its estrous cyclicity, we earlier used an indirect ELISA to show that levels of fecal progesterone (P(4))-metabolite (allopregnanolone: 5 alpha-P-3OH) in semi-captive females sampled randomly positively correlated with serum P(4) levels [12]. In this longitudinal study (51 weeks), we measured levels of fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH and serum P(4) in seven semi-captive female elephants. Females exhibited three types of hormonal profiles. Four females showed cyclical patterns of fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH and serum P(4) typical of normal estrous cycles, two showed acyclic pattern while one showed high values indicative of a pregnant animal. Values for anestrous or follicular phases were <= 0.3 mu g g(-1), (5 alpha-P-3OH) and <= 0.3 ng mL(-1) (P(4)); for luteal phase 0.32-11.09 mu g g(-1) (5 alpha-P-3OH) and 0.32-1.48 ng mL(-1) (P(4)); for pregnancy 1.41-7.38 mu g g(-1) (5 alpha-P-3OH) and 0.39-1.6 ng mL(-1) (R(4)). A positive correlation (t = 8.8, p < 0.01, n = 321) between levels of fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH and serum P4 was observed. A random sample of 30 free-ranging female elephants showed fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH values of 0.06-23.4 mu g g(-1), indicating them to be in different stages of estrous cyclicity. This study is the first to assess the reproductive phases of female Asian elephants based on the correlative-patterns of both the fecal 5 alpha-P-3OH and serum P(4) values over multiple estrous cycles. This has a potential application in the reproductive management and conservation of Asian elephants. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multi-scale interactions and predictability of the Indian summer monsoon

Following the seminal work of Charney and Shukla (198 1), the tropical climate is recognised to be more predictable than extra tropical climate as it is largely forced by 'external' slowly varying forcing and less sensitive to initial conditions. However, the Indian summer monsoon is an exception within the tropics where 'internal' low frequency (LF) oscillations seem to make significant contribution to its interannual variability (IAV) and makes it sensitive to initial conditions. Quantitative estimate of contribution of 'internal' dynamics to IAV of Indian monsoon is made using long experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and through analysis of long daily observations. Both AGCM experiments and observations indicate that more than 50% of IAV of the monsoon is contributed by 'internal' dynamics making the predictable signal (external component) burried in unpredictable noise (internal component) of comparable amplitude. Better understanding of the nature of the 'internal' LF variability is crucial for any improvement in predicition of seasonal mean monsoon. Nature of 'internal' LF variability of the monsoon and mechanism responsible for it are investigated and shown that vigorous monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO's) with time scale between 10-70 days are primarily responsible for generating the 'internal' IAV. The monsoon ISO's do this through scale interactions with synoptic disturbances (1-7 day time scale) on one hand and the annual cycle on the other. The spatial structure of the monsoon ISO's is similar to that of the seasonal mean. It is shown that frequency of occurance of strong (weak) phases of the ISO is different in different seasons giving rise to stronger (weaker) than normal monsoon. Change in the large scale circulation during strong (weak) phases of the ISO make it favourable (inhibiting) for cyclogenesis and gives rise to space time clustering of synoptic activity. This process leads to enhanced (reduced) rainfall in seasons of higher frequency of occurence strong (weak) phases of monsoon ISO.

Characteristics of Arabian Sea mini warm pool and Indian summer monsoon

Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool (ASMWP) is a part of the Indian Ocean Warm Pool and formed in the eastern Arabian Sea prior to the onset of the summer monsoon season. This warm pool attained its maximum intensity during the pre-monsoon season and dissipated with the commencement of summer monsoon. The main focus of the present work was on the triggering of the dissipation of this warm pool and its relation to the onset of summer monsoon over Kerala. This phenomenon was studied utilizing NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric and Research) re-analysis data, TRMM Micro wave Imager (TMI) and observational data. To define the ASMWP, sea surface temperature exceeding 30.25A degrees C was taken as the criteria. The warm pool attained its maximum dimension and intensity nearly 2 weeks prior to the onset of summer monsoon over Kerala. Interestingly, the warm pool started its dissipation immediately after attaining its maximum core temperature. This information can be included in the present numerical models to enhance the prediction capability. It was also found that the extent and intensity of the ASMWP varied depending on the type of monsoon i.e., excess, normal, and deficient monsoon. Maximum core temperature and wide coverage of the warm pool observed during the excess monsoon years compared to normal and deficient monsoon years. The study also revealed a strong relationship between the salinity in the eastern Arabian Sea and the nature of the monsoon.

Phylogeny of the Asian Eutropis (Squamata: Scincidae) reveals an `into India' endemic Indian radiation

Recent generic rearrangement of the circumtropical distributed skink genus `Mabuya' has raised a lot of debate. According to this molecular phylogeny based rearrangement, the tropical Asian members of this genus have been assigned to Eutropis. However, in these studies the Asian members of `Mabuya' were largely sampled from Southeast (SE) Asia with very few species from Indian subcontinent. To test the validity of this assignment and to determine the evolutionary origin of Indian members of this group we sequenced one nuclear and two mitochondrial genes from most of the species from the Indian subregion. The nuclear and mitochondrial trees generated from these sequences confirmed the monophyly of the tropical Asian Eutropis. Furthermore, in the tree based on the combined mitochondrial and nuclear dataset an endemic Indian radiation was revealed that was nested within a larger Asian clade. Results of dispersal-vicariance analysis and molecular dating suggested an initial dispersal of Eutropis from SE Asia into India around 5.5-17 million years ago, giving rise to the extant members of the endemic Indian radiation. This initial dispersal was followed by two back dispersals from India into SE Asia. We also discuss the relationships within the endemic Indian radiation and its taxonomic implications. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Northeast monsoon over India: variability and prediction

South peninsular India experiences a large portion of the annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon season (October to December). In this study, the facets of diurnal, intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of the northeast monsoon rainfall (the NEMR) over India have been examined. The analysis of satellite derived hourly rainfall reveals that there are distinct features of diurnal variation over the land and oceans during the season. Over the land, rainfall peaks during the late afternoon/evening, while over the oceans an early morning peak is observed. The harmonic analysis of hourly data reveals that the amplitude and variance are the largest over south peninsular India. The NEMR also exhibits significant intra-seasonal variability on a 20-40 day time scale. Analysis also shows significant northward propagation of the maximum cloud zone from south of equator to the south peninsula during the season. The NEMR exhibits large inter-annual variability with the co-efficient of variation (CV) of 25%. The positive phases of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are conducive for normal to above normal rainfall activity during the northeast monsoon. There are multi-decadal variations in the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR. During the period 2001-2010 the statistical relationship between ENSO and the NEMR has significantly weakened. The analysis of seasonal rainfall hindcasts for the period 1960-2005 produced by the state-of-the-art coupled climate models, ENSEMBLES, reveals that the coupled models have very poor skill in predicting the inter-annual variability of the NEMR. This is mainly due to the inability of the ENSEMBLES models to simulate the positive relationship between ENSO and the NEMR correctly. Copyright (C) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society