Inter-comparison and performance evaluation of chemistry transport models over Indian region

Aerosol loading over the South Asian region has the potential to affect the monsoon rainfall, Himalayan glaciers and regional air-quality, with implications for the billions in this region. While field campaigns and network observations provide primary data, they tend to be location/season specific. Numerical models are useful to regionalize such location-specific data. Studies have shown that numerical models underestimate the aerosol scenario over the Indian region, mainly due to shortcomings related to meteorology and the emission inventories used. In this context, we have evaluated the performance of two such chemistry-transport models: WRF-Chem and SPRINTARS over an India-centric domain. The models differ in many aspects including physical domain, horizontal resolution, meteorological forcing and so on etc. Despite these differences, both the models simulated similar spatial patterns of Black Carbon (BC) mass concentration, (with a spatial correlation of 0.9 with each other), and a reasonable estimates of its concentration, though both of them under-estimated vis-a-vis the observations. While the emissions are lower (higher) in SPRINTARS (WRF-Chem), overestimation of wind parameters in WRF-Chem caused the concentration to be similar in both models. Additionally, we quantified the under-estimations of anthropogenic BC emissions in the inventories used these two models and three other widely used emission inventories. Our analysis indicates that all these emission inventories underestimate the emissions of BC over India by a factor that ranges from 1.5 to 2.9. We have also studied the model simulations of aerosol optical depth over the Indian region. The models differ significantly in simulations of AOD, with WRF-Chem having a better agreement with satellite observations of AOD as far as the spatial pattern is concerned. It is important to note that in addition to BC, dust can also contribute significantly to AOD. The models differ in simulations of the spatial pattern of mineral dust over the Indian region. We find that both meteorological forcing and emission formulation contribute to these differences. Since AOD is column integrated parameter, description of vertical profiles in both models, especially since elevated aerosol layers are often observed over Indian region, could be also a contributing factor. Additionally, differences in the prescription of the optical properties of BC between the models appear to affect the AOD simulations. We also compared simulation of sea-salt concentration in the two models and found that WRF-Chem underestimated its concentration vis-a-vis SPRINTARS. The differences in near-surface oceanic wind speeds appear to be the main source of this difference. In-spite of these differences, we note that there are similarities in their simulation of spatial patterns of various aerosol species (with each other and with observations) and hence models could be valuable tools for aerosol-related studies over the Indian region. Better estimation of emission inventories could improve aerosol-related simulations. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fast and slow climate responses to CO2 and solar forcing: A linear multivariate regression model characterizing transient climate change

Climate change in response to a change in external forcing can be understood in terms of fast response to the imposed forcing and slow feedback associated with surface temperature change. Previous studies have investigated the characteristics of fast response and slow feedback for different forcing agents. Here we examine to what extent that fast response and slow feedback derived from time-mean results of climate model simulations can be used to infer total climate change. To achieve this goal, we develop a multivariate regression model of climate change, in which the change in a climate variable is represented by a linear combination of its sensitivity to CO2 forcing, solar forcing, and change in global mean surface temperature. We derive the parameters of the regression model using time-mean results from a set of HadCM3L climate model step-forcing simulations, and then use the regression model to emulate HadCM3L-simulated transient climate change. Our results show that the regression model emulates well HadCM3L-simulated temporal evolution and spatial distribution of climate change, including surface temperature, precipitation, runoff, soil moisture, cloudiness, and radiative fluxes under transient CO2 and/or solar forcing scenarios. Our findings suggest that temporal and spatial patterns of total change for the climate variables considered here can be represented well by the sum of fast response and slow feedback. Furthermore, by using a simple 1-D heat-diffusion climate model, we show that the temporal and spatial characteristics of climate change under transient forcing scenarios can be emulated well using information from step-forcing simulations alone.

Response Dynamics of Recirculation Structures in Coaxial Nonpremixed Swirl-Stabilized Flames Subjected to Acoustic Forcing

This paper reports the time-mean and phase-locked response of nonreacting as well as reacting flow field in a coaxial swirling jet/flame (nonpremixed). Two distinct swirl intensities plus two different central pipe flow rates at each swirl setting are investigated. The maximum response is observed at the 105 Hz mode in the range of excitation frequencies (0-315 Hz). The flow/flame exhibited minimal response beyond 300 Hz. It is seen that the aspect ratio change of inner recirculation zone (IRZ) under nonreacting conditions (at responsive modes) manifests as a corresponding increase in the time-mean flame aspect ratio. This is corroborated by similar to 25% decrease in the IRZ transverse width in both flame and cold flow states. In addition, 105 Hz excited states are found to shed high energy regions (eddies) asymmetrically when compared to dormant 315 Hz pulsing frequency. The kinetic energy (KE) of the flow field is subsequently reduced due to acoustic excitation and a corresponding increase (similar to O (1)) in fluctuation intensity is witnessed. The lower swirl intensity case is found to be more responsive than the high swirl case as in the former flow state the resistance offered by IRZ to incoming acoustic perturbations is lower due to inherently low inertia. Next, the phase-locked analysis of flow and flame structure is employed to further investigate the phase dependence of flow/flame response. It is found that the asymmetric shifting of IRZ mainly results at 270 deg acoustic forcing. The 90 deg phase angle forcing is observed to convect the IRZ farther downstream in both swirl cases as compared to other phase angles. The present work aims primarily at providing a fluid dynamic view point to the observed nonpremixed flame response without considering the confinement effects.