Estimation of soil hydraulic properties and their uncertainty: comparison between laboratory and field experiment

Often the soil hydraulic parameters are obtained by the inversion of measured data (e.g. soil moisture, pressure head, and cumulative infiltration, etc.). However, the inverse problem in unsaturated zone is ill-posed due to various reasons, and hence the parameters become non-unique. The presence of multiple soil layers brings the additional complexities in the inverse modelling. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimate (GLUE) is a useful approach to estimate the parameters and their uncertainty when dealing with soil moisture dynamics which is a highly non-linear problem. Because the estimated parameters depend on the modelling scale, inverse modelling carried out on laboratory data and field data may provide independent estimates. The objective of this paper is to compare the parameters and their uncertainty estimated through experiments in the laboratory and in the field and to assess which of the soil hydraulic parameters are independent of the experiment. The first two layers in the field site are characterized by Loamy sand and Loamy. The mean soil moisture and pressure head at three depths are measured with an interval of half hour for a period of 1 week using the evaporation method for the laboratory experiment, whereas soil moisture at three different depths (60, 110, and 200 cm) is measured with an interval of 1 h for 2 years for the field experiment. A one-dimensional soil moisture model on the basis of the finite difference method was used. The calibration and validation are approximately for 1 year each. The model performance was found to be good with root mean square error (RMSE) varying from 2 to 4 cm(3) cm(-3). It is found from the two experiments that mean and uncertainty in the saturated soil moisture (theta(s)) and shape parameter (n) of van Genuchten equations are similar for both the soil types. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of uncertainty on helicopter performance predictions

The effect of uncertainties on performance predictions of a helicopter is studied in this article. The aeroelastic parameters such as the air density, blade profile drag coefficient, main rotor angular velocity, main rotor radius, and blade chord are considered as uncertain variables. The propagation of these uncertainties in the performance parameters such as thrust coefficient, figure of merit, induced velocity, and power required are studied using Monte Carlo simulation and the first-order reliability method. The Rankine-Froude momentum theory is used for performance prediction in hover, axial climb, and forward flight. The propagation of uncertainty causes large deviations from the baseline deterministic predictions, which undoubtedly affect both the achievable performance and the safety of the helicopter. The numerical results in this article provide useful bounds on helicopter power requirements.

Mobile Base Stations Placement and Energy Aware Routing in Wireless Sensor Networks

Increasing network lifetime is important in wireless sensor/ad-hoc networks. In this paper, we are concerned with algorithms to increase network lifetime and amount of data delivered during the lifetime by deploying multiple mobile base stations in the sensor network field. Specifically, we allow multiple mobile base stations to be deployed along the periphery of the sensor network field and develop algorithms to dynamically choose the locations of these base stations so as to improve network lifetime. We propose energy efficient low-complexity algorithms to determine the locations of the base stations; they include i) Top-K-max algorithm, ii) maximizing the minimum residual energy (Max-Min-RE) algorithm, and iii) minimizing the residual energy difference (MinDiff-RE) algorithm. We show that the proposed base stations placement algorithms provide increased network lifetimes and amount of data delivered during the network lifetime compared to single base station scenario as well as multiple static base stations scenario, and close to those obtained by solving an integer linear program (ILP) to determine the locations of the mobile base stations. We also investigate the lifetime gain when an energy aware routing protocol is employed along with multiple base stations.

Intracellular Pathogen Sensor NOD2 Programs Macrophages to Trigger Notch1 Activation

Intracellular pathogen sensor, NOD2, has been implicated in regulation of wide range of anti-inflammatory responses critical during development of a diverse array of inflammatory diseases; however, underlying molecular details are still imprecisely understood. In this study, we demonstrate that NOD2 programs macrophages to trigger Notch1 signaling. Signaling perturbations or genetic approaches suggest signaling integration through cross-talk between Notch1-PI3K during the NOD2-triggered expression of a multitude of immunological parameters including COX-2/PGE(2) and IL-10. NOD2 stimulation enhanced active recruitment of CSL/RBP-Jk on the COX-2 promoter in vivo. Intriguingly, nitric oxide assumes critical importance in NOD2-mediated activation of Notch1 signaling as iNOS(-/-) macrophages exhibited compromised ability to execute NOD2-triggered Notch1 signaling responses. Correlative evidence demonstrates that this mechanism operates in vivo in brain and splenocytes derived from wild type, but not from iNOS(-/-) mice. Importantly, NOD2-driven activation of the Notch1-PI3K signaling axis contributes to its capacity to impart survival of macrophages against TNF-alpha or IFN-gamma-mediated apoptosis and resolution of inflammation. Current investigation identifies Notch1-PI3K as signaling cohorts involved in the NOD2-triggered expression of a battery of genes associated with anti-inflammatory functions. These findings serve as a paradigm to understand the pathogenesis of NOD2-associated inflammatory diseases and clearly pave a way toward development of novel therapeutics.

Particle filters for structural system identification using multiple test and sensor data: A combined computational and experimental study

The problem of structural system identification when measurements originate from multiple tests and multiple sensors is considered. An offline solution to this problem using bootstrap particle filtering is proposed. The central idea of the proposed method is the introduction of a dummy independent variable that allows for simultaneous assimilation of multiple measurements in a sequential manner. The method can treat linear/nonlinear structural models and allows for measurements on strains and displacements under static/dynamic loads. Illustrative examples consider measurement data from numerical models and also from laboratory experiments. The results from the proposed method are compared with those from a Kalman filter-based approach and the superior performance of the proposed method is demonstrated. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Model Based Target Tracking in a Wireless Network of Passive Infrared Sensor Nodes

We consider the problem of tracking an intruder in a plane region by using a wireless sensor network comprising motes equipped with passive infrared (PIR) sensors deployed over the region. An input-output model for the PIR sensor and a method to estimate the angular speed of the target from the sensor output are proposed. With the measurement model so obtained, we study the centralized and decentralized tracking performance using the extended Kalman filter.

Tunable Locally-Optimal Geographical Forwarding in Wireless Sensor Networks with Sleep-Wake Cycling Nodes

We consider a wireless sensor network whose main function is to detect certain infrequent alarm events, and to forward alarm packets to a base station, using geographical forwarding. The nodes know their locations, and they sleep-wake cycle, waking up periodically but not synchronously. In this situation, when a node has a packet to forward to the sink, there is a trade-off between how long this node waits for a suitable neighbor to wake up and the progress the packet makes towards the sink once it is forwarded to this neighbor. Hence, in choosing a relay node, we consider the problem of minimizing average delay subject to a constraint on the average progress. By constraint relaxation, we formulate this next hop relay selection problem as a Markov decision process (MDP). The exact optimal solution (BF (Best Forward)) can be found, but is computationally intensive. Next, we consider a mathematically simplified model for which the optimal policy (SF (Simplified Forward)) turns out to be a simple one-step-look-ahead rule. Simulations show that SF is very close in performance to BF, even for reasonably small node density. We then study the end-to-end performance of SF in comparison with two extremal policies: Max Forward (MF) and First Forward (FF), and an end-to-end delay minimising policy proposed by Kim et al. 1]. We find that, with appropriate choice of one hop average progress constraint, SF can be tuned to provide a favorable trade-off between end-to-end packet delay and the number of hops in the forwarding path.

Composite material and piezoelectric coefficient uncertainty effects on structural health monitoring using feedback control gains as damage indicators

This article addresses uncertainty effect on the health monitoring of a smart structure using control gain shifts as damage indicators. A finite element model of the smart composite plate with surface-bonded piezoelectric sensors and actuators is formulated using first-order shear deformation theory and a matrix crack model is integrated into the finite element model. A constant gain velocity/position feedback control algorithm is used to provide active damping to the structure. Numerical results show that the response of the structure is changed due to matrix cracks and this change can be compensated by actively tuning the feedback controller. This change in control gain can be used as a damage indicator for structural health monitoring. Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to study the effect of material uncertainty on the damage indicator by considering composite material properties and piezoelectric coefficients as independent random variables. It is found that the change in position feedback control gain is a robust damage indicator.

Lacunary Fourier series and a qualitative uncertainty principle for compact Lie groups

We define lacunary Fourier series on a compact connected semisimple Lie group G. If f is an element of L-1 (G) has lacunary Fourier series and f vanishes on a non empty open subset of G, then we prove that f vanishes identically. This result can be viewed as a qualitative uncertainty principle.

Bounds on the Lifetime of Wireless Sensor Networks Employing Multiple Data Sinks

Employing multiple base stations is an attractive approach to enhance the lifetime of wireless sensor networks. In this paper, we address the fundamental question concerning the limits on the network lifetime in sensor networks when multiple base stations are deployed as data sinks. Specifically, we derive upper bounds on the network lifetime when multiple base stations are employed, and obtain optimum locations of the base stations (BSs) that maximize these lifetime bounds. For the case of two BSs, we jointly optimize the BS locations by maximizing the lifetime bound using a genetic algorithm based optimization. Joint optimization for more number of BSs is complex. Hence, for the case of three BSs, we optimize the third BS location using the previously obtained optimum locations of the first two BSs. We also provide simulation results that validate the lifetime bounds and the optimum locations of the BSs.

Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

Distributed intrusion detection in the presence of correlated sensor readings: Signal-space and communication-complexity view-point

The problem of sensor-network-based distributed intrusion detection in the presence of clutter is considered. It is argued that sensing is best regarded as a local phenomenon in that only sensors in the immediate vicinity of an intruder are triggered. In such a setting, lack of knowledge of intruder location gives rise to correlated sensor readings. A signal-space view-point is introduced in which the noise-free sensor readings associated to intruder and clutter appear as surfaces f(s) and f(g) and the problem reduces to one of determining in distributed fashion, whether the current noisy sensor reading is best classified as intruder or clutter. Two approaches to distributed detection are pursued. In the first, a decision surface separating f(s) and f(g) is identified using Neyman-Pearson criteria. Thereafter, the individual sensor nodes interactively exchange bits to determine whether the sensor readings are on one side or the other of the decision surface. Bounds on the number of bits needed to be exchanged are derived, based on communication-complexity (CC) theory. A lower bound derived for the two-party average case CC of general functions is compared against the performance of a greedy algorithm. Extensions to the multi-party case is straightforward and is briefly discussed. The average case CC of the relevant greaterthan (CT) function is characterized within two bits. Under the second approach, each sensor node broadcasts a single bit arising from appropriate two-level quantization of its own sensor reading, keeping in mind the fusion rule to be subsequently applied at a local fusion center. The optimality of a threshold test as a quantization rule is proved under simplifying assumptions. Finally, results from a QualNet simulation of the algorithms are presented that include intruder tracking using a naive polynomial-regression algorithm. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Delay constrained optimal relay placement for planned wireless sensor networks

In this paper, we study the problem of wireless sensor network design by deploying a minimum number of additional relay nodes (to minimize network design cost) at a subset of given potential relay locationsin order to convey the data from already existing sensor nodes (hereafter called source nodes) to a Base Station within a certain specified mean delay bound. We formulate this problem in two different ways, and show that the problem is NP-Hard. For a problem in which the number of existing sensor nodes and potential relay locations is n, we propose an O(n) approximation algorithm of polynomial time complexity. Results show that the algorithm performs efficiently (in over 90% of the tested scenarios, it gave solutions that were either optimal or exceeding optimal just by one relay) in various randomly generated network scenarios.