Estimating Frequencies of Minority Nevirapine-Resistant Strains in Chronically HIV-1-Infected Individuals Naive to Nevirapine by Using Stochastic Simulations and a Mathematical Model

Nevirapine forms the mainstay of our efforts to curtail the pediatric AIDS epidemic through prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1. A key limitation, however, is the rapid selection of HIV-1 strains resistant to nevirapine following the administration of a single dose. This rapid selection of resistance suggests that nevirapine-resistant strains preexist in HIV-1 patients and may adversely affect outcomes of treatment. The frequencies of nevirapine-resistant strains in vivo, however, remain poorly estimated, possibly because they exist as a minority below current assay detection limits. Here, we employ stochastic simulations and a mathematical model to estimate the frequencies of strains carrying different combinations of the common nevirapine resistance mutations K103N, V106A, Y181C, Y188C, and G190A in chronically infected HIV-1 patients naive to nevirapine. We estimate the relative fitness of mutant strains from an independent analysis of previous competitive growth assays. We predict that single mutants are likely to preexist in patients at frequencies (similar to 0.01% to 0.001%) near or below current assay detection limits (>0.01%), emphasizing the need for more-sensitive assays. The existence of double mutants is subject to large stochastic variations. Triple and higher mutants are predicted not to exist. Our estimates are robust to variations in the recombination rate, cellular superinfection frequency, and the effective population size. Thus, with 10(7) to 10(8) infected cells in HIV-1 patients, even when undetected, nevirapine-resistant genomes may exist in substantial numbers and compromise efforts to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1, accelerate the failure of subsequent antiretroviral treatments, and facilitate the transmission of drug resistance.

Distribution of simple repetitive (TG/CA)n and (CT/AG)n sequences in human and rodent genomes

Sixteen million nucleotide sequence of genome of various organisms have been analysed to detect and study the extent of occurrence of simple repetitive sequences. Two sequence motifs (TG/CA)n and (CT/AG)n capable of adopting unusual DNA structures, left handed Z-conformation and triple-helical conformation respectively, are found to be abundant in rodent and human genomes, but almost completely absent in bacterial genome. (TG/CA)n and (CT/AG)n sequences are present mostly in the intron or 5'/3' flanking regions of the genes. The presence of such repeat motifs in genomic sequence of higher eukaryotes has been correlated with their possible functional significance in nucleosome organization, recombination and gene expression.

Free vibration of a stochastic beam-column using stochastic fem

The free vibrational characteristics of a beam-column, which is having randomly varying Young's modulus and mass density and subjected to randomly distributed axial loading is analysed. The material property fluctuations and axial loadings are considered to constitute independent one-dimensional, uni-variate, homogeneous real, spatially distributed stochastic fields. Hamilton's principle is used to formulate the problem using stochastic FEM. Vibration frequencies and mode shapes are analysed for their statistical descriptions. A numerical example is shown.

Source and target enzyme signature in serine protease inhibitor active site sequences

Amino acid sequences of proteinaceous proteinase inhibitors have been extensively analysed for deriving information regarding the molecular evolution and functional relationship of these proteins. These sequences have been grouped into several well defined families. It was found that the phylogeny constructed with the sequences corresponding to the exposed loop responsible for inhibition has several branches that resemble those obtained from comparisons using the entire sequence. The major branches of the unrooted tree corresponded to the families to which the inhibitors belonged. Further branching is related to the enzyme specificity of the inhibitor. Examination of the active site loop sequences of trypsin inhibitors revealed that there are strong preferences for specific amino acids at different positions of the loop. These preferences are inhibitor class specific. Inhibitors active against more than one enzyme occur within a class and confirm to class specific sequence in their loops. Hence, only a few positions in the loop seem to determine the specificity. The ability to inhibit the same enzyme by inhibitors that belong to different classes appears to be a result of convergent evolution

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling studies on neurodegenerative disease causing triplet repeat sequences d(CGG/GCC) and d(CAG/CTG): Duplexes vs Quadruplexes

Model building and molecular mechanics studies have been carried out to examine the potential structures for d(GGC/GCC)5 and d(CAG/CTG)5 that might relate to their biological function and association with triplet repeat expansion diseases. Model building studies suggested that hairpin and quadruplex structures could be formed with these repeat sequences. Molecular mechanics studies have demonstrated that the hairpin and hairpin dimmer structures of triplet repeat sequences formed by looping out of the two strands are as favourable as the corresponding B-DNA type hetero duplex structures. Further, at high salt condition, Greek key type quadruplex structures are energetically comparable with hairpin dimer and B-DNA type duplex structures. All tetrads in the quadruplex structures are well stacked and provide favourable stacking energy values. Interestingly, in the energy minimized hairpin dimer and Greek key type quadruplex structures, all the bases even in the non-G tetrads are cyclically hydrogen bonded, even though the A, C and T-tetrads were not hydrogen bonded in the starting structures.

Characterization of species-specific repeated DNA sequences from B. nigra

The construction and characterization of two genome-specific recombinant DNA clones from B. nigra are described. Southern analysis showed that the two clones belong to a dispersed repeat family. They differ from each other in their length, distribution and sequence, though the average GC content is nearly the same (45%). These B genome-specific repeats have been used to analyse the phylogenetic relationships between cultivated and wild species of the family Brassicaceae.

Denumerable state stochastic games with limiting average payoff

We study stochastic games with countable state space, compact action spaces, and limiting average payoff. ForN-person games, the existence of an equilibrium in stationary strategies is established under a certain Liapunov stability condition. For two-person zero-sum games, the existence of a value and optimal strategies for both players are established under the same stability condition.

Non-conservatively loaded stochastic columns

A new finite element method is developed to analyse non-conservative structures with more than one parameter behaving in a stochastic manner. As a generalization, this paper treats the subsequent non-self-adjoint random eigenvalue problem that arises when the material property values of the non-conservative structural system have stochastic fluctuations resulting from manufacturing and measurement errors. The free vibration problems of stochastic Beck's column and stochastic Leipholz column whose Young's modulus and mass density are distributed stochastically are considered. The stochastic finite element method that is developed, is implemented to arrive at a random non-self-adjoint algebraic eigenvalue problem. The stochastic characteristics of eigensolutions are derived in terms of the stochastic material property variations. Numerical examples are given. It is demonstrated that, through this formulation, the finite element discretization need not be dependent on the characteristics of stochastic processes of the fluctuations in material property value.

On extremal solutions to stochastic control problems, II

The set of attainable laws of the joint state-control process of a controlled diffusion is analyzed from a convex analytic viewpoint. Various equivalence relations depending on one-dimensional marginals thereof are defined on this set and the corresponding equivalence classes are studied.

Parametric instability of stochastic columns

Columns which have stochastically distributed Young's modulus and mass density and are subjected to deterministic periodic axial loadings are considered. The general case of a column supported on a Winkler elastic foundation of random stiffness and also on discrete elastic supports which are also random is considered. Material property fluctuations are modeled as independent one-dimensional univariate homogeneous real random fields in space. In addition to autocorrelation functions or their equivalent power spectral density functions, the input random fields are characterized by scale of fluctuations or variance functions for their second order properties. The foundation stiffness coefficient and the stiffnesses of discrete elastic supports are treated to constitute independent random variables. The system equations of boundary frequencies are obtained using Bolotin's method for deterministic systems. Stochastic FEM is used to obtain the discrete system with random as well as periodic coefficients. Statistical properties of boundary frequencies are derived in terms of input parameter statistics. A complete covariance structure is obtained. The equations developed are illustrated using a numerical example employing a practical correlation structure.

Polypurine-polypyrimidine sequences adopt unwound structure in pBR322 form V DNA as probed by single-hit analysis of HpaII sites.

Structure at the polypurine-polypyrimidine sequences flanking the HpaII sites (CCGG) in pBR322 form V DNA was probed employing single-hit analysis using HpaII restriction endonuclease. Reduced cleavage efficiency of HpaII sites flanked by polypurine-polypyrimidine sequences suggested that under high torsional stress these sequences adopt unwound structures rendering these sites insensitive to restriction enzyme cleavage. In addition to polypurine-polypyrimidine sequences. HpaII sites flanked by alternating purine-pyrimidine sequence, a potential motif of left handed Z-DNA, were also found to be resistant to HpaII cleavage. Results obtained from various studies implicating structure sensitivity of restriction endonucleases and methylases were compiled and a direct correlation was observed between the occurrence of altered sites in a domain and its G/C content in pBR322 form V DNA.

Snapthrough instability of a stochastic a von Mises truss

A von Mises truss with stochastically varying material properties is investigated for snapthrough instability. The variability of the snap-through load is calculated analytically as a function of the material property variability represented as a stochastic process. The bounds are established which are independent of the knowledge of the complete description of correlation structure which is seldom possible using the experimental data. Two processes are considered to represent the material property variability and the results are presented graphically. Ein von Mises Fachwerk mit stochastisch verteilten Materialeigenschaften wird bezüglich der Durchschlagsinstabilität untersucht. Die Spannbreite der Durchschlagslast wird analytisch als Funktion der Spannbreite der Materialeigenschaften berechnet, die stochastisch verteilt angenommen werden. Eine explizite Gesamtbeschreibung der Struktur ist bei Benutzung experimenteller Daten selten möglich. Deshalb werden Grenzen für die Durchschlagskraft entwickelt, die von der Kenntnis dieser Gesamtbeschreibung unabhängig sind. Zwei Grenzfälle werden betrachtet, um die Spannbreite der Materialeigenschaften darzustellen. Die Ergebnisse werden grafisch dargestellt.

Stochastic Approximation Algorithms for Constrained Optimization via Simulation

We develop four algorithms for simulation-based optimization under multiple inequality constraints. Both the cost and the constraint functions are considered to be long-run averages of certain state-dependent single-stage functions. We pose the problem in the simulation optimization framework by using the Lagrange multiplier method. Two of our algorithms estimate only the gradient of the Lagrangian, while the other two estimate both the gradient and the Hessian of it. In the process, we also develop various new estimators for the gradient and Hessian. All our algorithms use two simulations each. Two of these algorithms are based on the smoothed functional (SF) technique, while the other two are based on the simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) method. We prove the convergence of our algorithms and show numerical experiments on a setting involving an open Jackson network. The Newton-based SF algorithm is seen to show the best overall performance.