Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Homomorphic Analysis and Modeling of ECG Signals

Homomorphic analysis and pole-zero modeling of electrocardiogram (ECG) signals are presented in this paper. Four typical ECG signals are considered and deconvolved into their minimum and maximum phase components through cepstral filtering, with a view to study the possibility of more efficient feature selection from the component signals for diagnostic purposes. The complex cepstra of the signals are linearly filtered to extract the basic wavelet and the excitation function. The ECG signals are, in general, mixed phase and hence, exponential weighting is done to aid deconvolution of the signals. The basic wavelet for normal ECG approximates the action potential of the muscle fiber of the heart and the excitation function corresponds to the excitation pattern of the heart muscles during a cardiac cycle. The ECG signals and their components are pole-zero modeled and the pole-zero pattern of the models can give a clue to classify the normal and abnormal signals. Besides, storing only the parameters of the model can result in a data reduction of more than 3:1 for normal signals sampled at a moderate 128 samples/s

The 26 July 2005 heavy rainfall event over Mumbai: numerical modeling aspects

The performance of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in simulating an extreme rainfall event is evaluated, and subsequently the physical mechanisms leading to its initiation and sustenance are explored. As a case study, the heavy precipitation event that led to 65 cm of rainfall accumulation in a span of around 6 h (1430 LT-2030 LT) over Santacruz (Mumbai, India), on 26 July, 2005, is selected. Three sets of numerical experiments have been conducted. The first set of experiments (EXP1) consisted of a four-member ensemble, and was carried out in an idealized mode with a model grid spacing of 1 km. In spite of the idealized framework, signatures of heavy rainfall were seen in two of the ensemble members. The second set (EXP2) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nested integration and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6 and 1 km. The model was able to simulate a realistic spatial structure with the 54, 18, and 6 km grids; however, with the 1 km grid, the simulations were dominated by the prescribed boundary conditions. The third and final set of experiments (EXP3) consisted of a five-member ensemble, with a four-level one-way nesting and grid spacing of 54, 18, 6, and 2 km. The Scaled Lagged Average Forecasting (SLAF) methodology was employed to construct the ensemble members. The model simulations in this case were closer to observations, as compared to EXP2. Specifically, among all experiments, the timing of maximum rainfall, the abrupt increase in rainfall intensities, which was a major feature of this event, and the rainfall intensities simulated in EXP3 (at 6 km resolution) were closest to observations. Analysis of the physical mechanisms causing the initiation and sustenance of the event reveals some interesting aspects. Deep convection was found to be initiated by mid-tropospheric convergence that extended to lower levels during the later stage. In addition, there was a high negative vertical gradient of equivalent potential temperature suggesting strong atmospheric instability prior to and during the occurrence of the event. Finally, the presence of a conducive vertical wind shear in the lower and mid-troposphere is thought to be one of the major factors influencing the longevity of the event.

Fatigue crack propagation model for plain concrete - An analogy with population growth

In this work, an analytical model is proposed for fatigue crack propagation in plain concrete based on population growth exponential law and in conjunction with principles of dimensional analysis and self-similarity. This model takes into account parameters such as loading history, fracture toughness, crack length, loading ratio and structural size. The predicted results are compared with experimental crack growth data for constant and variable amplitude loading and are found to capture the size effect apart from showing a good agreement. Using this model, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to study the effect of various parameters that influence fatigue failure. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transposable element-medicated evolution of sex: A population genetic model

For a population made up of individuals capable of sexual as well as asexual modes of reproduction, conditions for the spread of a transposable element are explored using a one-locus, two-haplotype model. The analysis is then extended to include the possibility that the transposable element can modulate the probability of sexual reproduction, thus casting Hickey’s (1982,Genetics 101: 519–531) suggestion in a population genetics framework. The model explicitly includes the cost of sexual reproduction, fitness disadvantage to the transposable element, probability of transposition, and the predisposition for sexual reproduction in the presence and absence of the transposable element. The model predicts several kinds of outcome, including initial frequency dependence and stable polymorphism. More importantly, it is seen that for a wide range of parameter values, the transposable element can go to fixation. Therefore it is able to convert the population from a predominantly asexual to a predominantly sexual mode of reproduction. Viewed in conjunction with recent results implicating short stretches of apparently non-coding DNA in sex determination (McCoubreyet al. 1988,Science 242: 1146–1151), the model hints at the important role this mechanism could have played in the evolution of sexuality.

Molecular Modeling Studies on Amphotericin B and its Complex with Phospholipid,

Molecular dynamics simulation studies on polyene antifungal antibiotic amphotericin B, its head-to-tail dimeric structure and lipid - amphotericin B complex demonstrate interesting features of the flexibilities within the molecule and define the optimal interactions for the formation of a stable dimeric structure and complex with phospholipid.

Computer modeling studies on the binding of 2',5'-linked dinucleoside phosphates to ribonuclease T1-influence of subsite interactions on the substrate specificity

The modes of binding of Gp(2',5')A, Gp(2',5')C, Gp(2',5')G and Gp(2',5')U to RNase T1 have been determined by computer modelling studies. All these dinucleoside phosphates assume extended conformations in the active site leading to better interactions with the enzyme. The 5'-terminal guanine of all these ligands is placed in the primary base binding site of the enzyme in an orientation similar to that of 2'-GMP in the RNase T1-2'-GMP complex. The 2'-terminal purines are placed close to the hydrophobic pocket formed by the residues Gly71, Ser72, Pro73 and Gly74 which occur in a loop region. However, the orientation of the 2'-terminal pyrimidines is different from that of 2'-terminal purines. This perhaps explains the higher binding affinity of the 2',5'-linked guanine dinucleoside phosphates with 2'-terminal purines than those with 2'-terminal pyrimidines. A comparison of the binding of the guanine dinucleoside phosphates with 2',5'- and 3',5'-linkages suggests significant differences in the ribose pucker and hydrogen bonding interactions between the catalytic residues and the bound nucleoside phosphate implying that 2',5'-linked dinucleoside phosphates may not be the ideal ligands to probe the role of the catalytic amino acid residues. A change in the amino acid sequence in the surface loop region formed by the residues Gly71 to Gly74 drastically affects the conformation of the base binding subsite, and this may account for the inactivity of the enzyme with altered sequence i.e., with Pro, Gly and Ser at positions 71 to 73 respectively. These results thus suggest that in addition to recognition and catalytic sites, interactions at the loop regions which constitute the subsite for base binding are also crucial in determining the substrate specificity.

Taking Multiple Infections of Cells and Recombination into Account Leads to Small Within-Host Effective-Population-Size Estimates of HIV-1

Whether HIV-1 evolution in infected individuals is dominated by deterministic or stochastic effects remains unclear because current estimates of the effective population size of HIV-1 in vivo, N-e, are widely varying. Models assuming HIV-1 evolution to be neutral estimate N-e similar to 10(2)-10(4), smaller than the inverse mutation rate of HIV-1 (similar to 10(5)), implying the predominance of stochastic forces. In contrast, a model that includes selection estimates N-e>10(5), suggesting that deterministic forces would hold sway. The consequent uncertainty in the nature of HIV-1 evolution compromises our ability to describe disease progression and outcomes of therapy. We perform detailed bit-string simulations of viral evolution that consider large genome lengths and incorporate the key evolutionary processes underlying the genomic diversification of HIV-1 in infected individuals, namely, mutation, multiple infections of cells, recombination, selection, and epistatic interactions between multiple loci. Our simulations describe quantitatively the evolution of HIV-1 diversity and divergence in patients. From comparisons of our simulations with patient data, we estimate N-e similar to 10(3)-10(4), implying predominantly stochastic evolution. Interestingly, we find that N-e and the viral generation time are correlated with the disease progression time, presenting a route to a priori prediction of disease progression in patients. Further, we show that the previous estimate of N-e>10(5) reduces as the frequencies of multiple infections of cells and recombination assumed increase. Our simulations with N-e similar to 10(3)-10(4) may be employed to estimate markers of disease progression and outcomes of therapy that depend on the evolution of viral diversity and divergence.

Role of population transfer under strong probe conditions in electromagnetically induced transparency

We analyze theoretically the phenomenon of electromagnetically induced transparency (UT) under conditions where the probe laser is not in the usual weak limit. We consider the effects in both three-level and four-level systems, which are either closed or open (due to losses to an external metastable level). We find that the EIT dip almost disappears in a closed three-level system but survives in an open system. In four-level systems, there is a narrow enhanced-absorption peak (EITA) at line center, which has applications as an optical clock. The peak converts to an EIT dip in a closed system, but again survives in an open system. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of climate change on Indian forests: a dynamic vegetation modeling approach

We make an assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India. This assessment is based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the dynamic global vegetation model IBIS for A2 and B2 scenarios. According to the model projections, 39% of forest grids are likely to undergo vegetation type change under the A2 scenario and 34% under the B2 scenario by the end of this century. However, in many forest dominant states such as Chattisgarh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh up to 73%, 67% and 62% of forested grids are projected to undergo change. Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is projected to increase by 68.8% and 51.2% under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, and soil organic carbon (SOC) by 37.5% for A2 and 30.2% for B2 scenario. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modeling, we present a forest vulnerability index for India which is based on the observed datasets of forest density, forest biodiversity as well as model predicted vegetation type shift estimates for forested grids. The vulnerability index suggests that upper Himalayas, northern and central parts of Western Ghats and parts of central India are most vulnerable to projected impacts of climate change, while Northeastern forests are more resilient. Thus our study points to the need for developing and implementing adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of forests to projected climate change.

Modeling and Field Oriented Control of Salient Pole Wound Field Synchronous Machine in Stator Flux Coordinates

This paper describes the field oriented control of a salient pole wound field synchronous machine in stator flux coordinates. The procedure for derivation of flux linkage equations along any general rotating axes including stator flux axes is given. The stator flux equations are used to identify the cross-coupling occurring between the axes due to saliency in the machine. The coupling terms are canceled as feedforward terms in the generation of references for current controllers to achieve good decoupling during transients. The design of current controller for stator-flux-oriented control is presented. This paper proposes the method of extending rotor flux closed loop observer for sensorless control of wound field synchronous machine. This paper also proposes a new sensorless control by using stator flux closed loop observer and estimation of torque angle using stator current components in stator flux coordinates. Detailed experimental results from a sensorless 15.8 hp salient pole wound field synchronous machine drive are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed control strategy from a low speed of 0.8 Hz to 50 Hz.

Constitutive modeling of ice in the high strain rate regime

The objective of the present work is to propose a constitutive model for ice by considering the influence of important parameters such as strain rate dependence and pressure sensitivity on the response of the material. In this regard, the constitutive model proposed by Carney et al. (2006) is considered as a starting basis and subsequently modified to incorporate the effect of brittle cracking within a continuum damage mechanics framework. The damage is taken to occur in the form of distributed cracking within the material during impact which is consistent with experimental observations. At the point of failure, the material is assumed to be fluid-like with deviatoric stress almost dropping down to zero. The constitutive model is implemented in a general purpose finite element code using an explicit formulation. Several single element tests under uniaxial tension and compression, as well as biaxial loading are conducted in order to understand the performance of the model. Few large size simulations are also performed to understand the capability of the model to predict brittle damage evolution in un-notched and notched three point bend specimens. The proposed model predicts lower strength under tensile loading as compared to compressive loading which is in tune with experimental observations. Further the model also asserts the strain rate dependency of the strength behavior under both compressive as well as tensile loading, which also corroborates well with experimental results. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A hybrid technique of modeling of cracks using displacement discontinuity and direct boundary element method

A hybrid technique to model two dimensional fracture problems which makes use of displacement discontinuity and direct boundary element method is presented. Direct boundary element method is used to model the finite domain of the body, while displacement discontinuity elements are utilized to represent the cracks. Thus the advantages of the component methods are effectively combined. This method has been implemented in a computer program and numerical results which show the accuracy of the present method are presented. The cases of bodies containing edge cracks as well as multiple cracks are considered. A direct method and an iterative technique are described. The present hybrid method is most suitable for modeling problems invoking crack propagation.

Quantum Threshold Voltage Modeling of Short Channel Quad Gate Silicon Nanowire Transistor

In this paper, a physically based analytical quantum linear threshold voltage model for short channel quad gate MOSFETs is developed. The proposed model, which is suitable for circuit simulation, is based on the analytical solution of 3-D Poisson and 2-D Schrodinger equation. Proposed model is fully validated against the professional numerical device simulator for a wide range of device geometries and also used to analyze the effect of geometry variation on the threshold voltage.