255 resultados para PREDICTIONS
Resumo:
In this paper, we examine the major predictions made so far regarding the nature of climate change and its impacts on our region in the light of the known errors of the set of models and the observations over this century. The major predictions of the climate models about the impact of increased concentration of greenhouse gases ave at variance with the observations over the Indian region during the last century characterized by such increases and global warming. It is important to note that as far as the Indian region is concerned, the impact of year-to-year variation of the monsoon will continue to be dominant over longer period changes even in the presence of global warming. Recent studies have also brought out the uncertainties in the yields simulated by crop models. It is suggested that a deeper understanding of the links between climate and agricultural productivity is essential for generating reliable predictions of impact of climate change. Such an insight is also required for identifying cropping patterns and management practices which are tailored for sustained maximum yield in the face of the vagaries of the monsoon.
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We present a generic theory for the dynamics of a stiff filament under tension, in an active medium with orientational correlations, such as a microtubule in contractile actin. In sharp contrast to the case of a passive medium, we find the filament can stiffen, and possibly oscillate or buckle, depending on both the contractile or tensile nature of the activity and the filament-medium anchoring interaction. We also demonstrate a strong violation of the fluctuation-dissipation (FD) relation in the effective dynamics of the filament, including a negative FD ratio. Our approach is also of relevance to the dynamics of axons, and our model equations bear a remarkable formal similarity to those in recent work [Martin P, Hudspeth AJ, Juelicher F (2001) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 98: 14380-14385] on auditory hair cells. Detailed tests of our predictions can be made by using a single filament in actomyosin extracts or bacterial suspensions.
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It is known that DNA-binding proteins can slide along the DNA helix while searching for specific binding sites, but their path of motion remains obscure. Do these proteins undergo simple one-dimensional (1D) translational diffusion, or do they rotate to maintain a specific orientation with respect to the DNA helix? We measured 1D diffusion constants as a function of protein size while maintaining the DNA-protein interface. Using bootstrap analysis of single-molecule diffusion data, we compared the results to theoretical predictions for pure translational motion and rotation-coupled sliding along the DNA. The data indicate that DNA-binding proteins undergo rotation-coupled sliding along the DNA helix and can be described by a model of diffusion along the DNA helix on a rugged free-energy landscape. A similar analysis including the 1D diffusion constants of eight proteins of varying size shows that rotation-coupled sliding is a general phenomenon. The average free-energy barrier for sliding along the DNA was 1.1 +/- 0.2 k(B)T. Such small barriers facilitate rapid search for binding sites.
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The remarkable geological and evolutionary history of peninsular India has generated much interest in the patterns and processes that might have shaped the current distributions of its endemic biota. In this regard the Out of India hypothesis, which proposes that rafting peninsular India carried Gondwanan forms to Asia after the break-up of Gondwana super continent, has gained prominence. Here we have reviewed molecular studies undertaken on a range of taxa of supposedly Gondwanan origin to better understand the Out-of-India scenario. This re-evaluation of published molecular studies indicates that there is mounting evidence supporting Out-of-India scenario for various Asian taxa. Nevertheless, in many studies the evidence is inconclusive due to lack of information on the age of relevant nodes. Studies also indicate that not all Gondwanan forms of peninsular India dispersed out of India. Many of these ancient lineages are confined to peninsular India and therefore are relict Gondwanan lineages. Additionally for some taxa an Into India rather than Out-of-India scenario better explains their current distribution. To identify the Out-of-India component of Asian biota it is imperative that we understand the complex biogeographical history of India. To this end, we propose three oversimplified yet explicit phylogenetic predictions. These predictions can be tested through the use of molecular phylogenetic tools in conjunction with palaeontological and geological data.
Resumo:
A numerical modelling technique for predicting the detailed performance of a double-inlet type two-stage pulse tube refrigerator has been developed. The pressure variations in the compressor, pulse tube, and reservoir were derived, assuming the stroke volume variation of the compressor to be sinusoidal. The relationships of mass flowrates, volume flowrates, and temperature as a function of time and position were developed. The predicted refrigeration powers are calculated by considering the effect of void volumes and the phase shift between pressure and mass flowrate. These results are compared with the experimental results of a specific pulse tube refrigerator configuration and an existing theoretical model. The analysis shows that the theoretical predictions are in good agreement with each other.
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We address the issue of noise robustness of reconstruction techniques for frequency-domain optical-coherence tomography (FDOCT). We consider three reconstruction techniques: Fourier, iterative phase recovery, and cepstral techniques. We characterize the reconstructions in terms of their statistical bias and variance and obtain approximate analytical expressions under the assumption of small noise. We also perform Monte Carlo analyses and show that the experimental results are in agreement with the theoretical predictions. It turns out that the iterative and cepstral techniques yield reconstructions with a smaller bias than the Fourier method. The three techniques, however, have identical variance profiles, and their consistency increases linearly as a function of the signal-to-noise ratio.
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Dielectric measurements on the charge-ordered insulators, Y1-xCaxMnO3 (x = 0.4. 0.45 and 0.5), show maxima in the dielectric constant around the charge ordering transition temperature while magnetic measurements show the presence of weak ferromagnetic interactions at low temperatures. Besides the magnetic field dependence of the dielectric constant, these manganites also exhibit second harmonic generation. Thus, the charge-ordered Y1-xCaxMnO3 compositions are multiferroic and magnetoelectric, in accordance with theoretical predictions. Magnetoelectric properties are retained in small particles of Y0.5Ca0.5MnO3. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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We report a combined experimental and computational study of a low constraint aluminum single crystal fracture geometry and investigate the near-tip stress and strain fields. To this end, a single edge notched tensile (SENT) specimen is considered. A notch, with a radius of 50 µm, is taken to lie in the (010) plane and its front is aligned along the [101] direction. Experiments are conducted by subjecting the specimen to tensile loading using a special fixture inside a scanning electron microscope chamber. Both SEM micrographs and electron back-scattered diffraction (EBSD) maps are obtained from the near-tip region. The experiments are complemented by performing 3D and 2D plane strain finite element simulations within a continuum crystal plasticity framework assuming an isotropic hardening response characterized by the Pierce–Asaro–Needleman model. The simulations show a distinct slip band forming at about 55 deg with respect to the notch line corresponding to slip on (11-bar 1)[011] system, which corroborates well with experimental data. Furthermore, two kink bands occur at about 45 deg and 90 deg with respect to the notch line within which large rotations in the crystal orientation take place. These predictions are in good agreement with the EBSD observations. Finally, the near-tip angular variations of the 3D stress and plastic strain fields in the low constraint SENT fracture geometry are examined in detail.
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A two stage Pulse Tube Cryocooler (PTC) is designed and fabricated which reaches a no-load temperature of 2.5K in the second stage and similar to 60 K in the first stage respectively. The system provides a cooling power of similar to 250 mW at 5K in the second stage. Stainless steel meshes (size 200) and lead (Pb) granules are used as the first stage regenerator materials and combination of Pb with Er3Ni / HoCu2 are used as the second stage regenerator materials. The system operates at 1.6 Hz using a 6 kW water cooled helium compressor. Studies conducted by varying the dimensions of Pulse Tubes and regenerators show that the dimensions of the Pulse Tubes are more critical to the performance of the Cryocooler than those of the regenerators. Experimental studies show that the optimum volume ratios of Er3Ni to Pb and HoCu2 to Pb in the second stage regenerator should be 3:2 and 2:3 respectively for the best performance. Further, systems with HoCu2 performed better than those with Er3Ni. The theoretical analysis of the system has been carried out using a simple isothermal model. The experimentally measured cooling powers are in good agreement with the theoretical predictions.
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We explore the fuse of information on co-occurrence of domains in multi-domain proteins in predicting protein-protein interactions. The basic premise of our work is the assumption that domains co-occurring in a polypeptide chain undergo either structural or functional interactions among themselves. In this study we use a template dataset of domains in multidomain proteins and predict protein-protein interactions in a target organism. We note that maximum number of correct predictions of interacting protein domain families (158) is made in S. cerevisiae when the dataset of closely related organisms is used as the template followed by the more diverse dataset of bacterial proteins (48) and a dataset of randomly chosen proteins (23). We conclude that use of multi-domain information from organisms closely-related to the target can aid prediction of interacting protein families.
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A model for total cross-sections incorporating QCD jet cross-sections and soft gluon resummation is described and compared with present data on pp and pp cross-sections. Predictions for LHC are presented for different parameter sets. It is shown that they differ according to the small x-behaviour of available parton density functions.
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This paper deals with the development of simplified semi-empirical relations for the prediction of residual velocities of small calibre projectiles impacting on mild steel target plates, normally or at an angle, and the ballistic limits for such plates. It has been shown, for several impact cases for which test results on perforation of mild steel plates are available, that most of the existing semi-empirical relations which are applicable only to normal projectile impact do not yield satisfactory estimations of residual velocity. Furthermore, it is difficult to quantify some of the empirical parameters present in these relations for a given problem. With an eye towards simplicity and ease of use, two new regression-based relations employing standard material parameters have been discussed here for predicting residual velocity and ballistic limit for both normal and oblique impact. The latter expressions differ in terms of usage of quasi-static or strain rate-dependent average plate material strength. Residual velocities yielded by the present semi-empirical models compare well with the experimental results. Additionally, ballistic limits from these relations show close correlation with the corresponding finite element-based predictions.
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The significance of treating rainfall as a chaotic system instead of a stochastic system for a better understanding of the underlying dynamics has been taken up by various studies recently. However, an important limitation of all these approaches is the dependence on a single method for identifying the chaotic nature and the parameters involved. Many of these approaches aim at only analyzing the chaotic nature and not its prediction. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify chaos using various techniques and prediction is also done by generating ensembles in order to quantify the uncertainty involved. Daily rainfall data of three regions with contrasting characteristics (mainly in the spatial area covered), Malaprabha, Mahanadi and All-India for the period 1955-2000 are used for the study. Auto-correlation and mutual information methods are used to determine the delay time for the phase space reconstruction. Optimum embedding dimension is determined using correlation dimension, false nearest neighbour algorithm and also nonlinear prediction methods. The low embedding dimensions obtained from these methods indicate the existence of low dimensional chaos in the three rainfall series. Correlation dimension method is done on th phase randomized and first derivative of the data series to check whether the saturation of the dimension is due to the inherent linear correlation structure or due to low dimensional dynamics. Positive Lyapunov exponents obtained prove the exponential divergence of the trajectories and hence the unpredictability. Surrogate data test is also done to further confirm the nonlinear structure of the rainfall series. A range of plausible parameters is used for generating an ensemble of predictions of rainfall for each year separately for the period 1996-2000 using the data till the preceding year. For analyzing the sensitiveness to initial conditions, predictions are done from two different months in a year viz., from the beginning of January and June. The reasonably good predictions obtained indicate the efficiency of the nonlinear prediction method for predicting the rainfall series. Also, the rank probability skill score and the rank histograms show that the ensembles generated are reliable with a good spread and skill. A comparison of results of the three regions indicates that although they are chaotic in nature, the spatial averaging over a large area can increase the dimension and improve the predictability, thus destroying the chaotic nature. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Recommender systems aggregate individual user ratings into predictions of products or services that might interest visitors. The quality of this aggregation process crucially affects the user experience and hence the effectiveness of recommenders in e-commerce. We present a characterization of nearest-neighbor collaborative filtering that allows us to disaggregate global recommender performance measures into contributions made by each individual rating. In particular, we formulate three roles-scouts, promoters, and connectors-that capture how users receive recommendations, how items get recommended, and how ratings of these two types are themselves connected, respectively. These roles find direct uses in improving recommendations for users, in better targeting of items and, most importantly, in helping monitor the health of the system as a whole. For instance, they can be used to track the evolution of neighborhoods, to identify rating subspaces that do not contribute ( or contribute negatively) to system performance, to enumerate users who are in danger of leaving, and to assess the susceptibility of the system to attacks such as shilling. We argue that the three rating roles presented here provide broad primitives to manage a recommender system and its community.
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We report the quasielastic neutron scattering (QENS) and molecular dynamics (MD) investigations into diffusion of pentane isomers in zeolite NaY. The molecular cross section perpendicular to the long molecular axis varies for the three isomers while the mass and the isomer-zeolite interaction remains essentially unchanged. Both QENS and MD results show that the branched isomers neopentane and isopentane have higher self-diffusivities as compared with n-pentane at 300 K in NaY zeolite. This result provides direct experimental evidence for the existence of nonmonotonic, anomalous dependence of self-diffusivity on molecular diameter known as the levitation effect. The energetic barrier at the bottleneck derived from MD simulations exists for n-pentane which lies in the linear regime while no such barrier is seen for neopentane which is located clearly in the anomalous regime.Activation energy is in the order E-a(n-pentane)>E-a(isopentane)>E-a(neopentane) consistent with the predictions of the levitation effect. In the liquid phase, it is seen thatD(n pentane)>D(isopentane)>D(neopentane) and E-a(n-pentane)< E-a(isopentane)< E-a(neopentane). Intermediate scattering function for small wavenumbers obtained from MD follows a single exponential decay for neopentane and isopentane. For n-pentane, a single exponential fit provides a poor fit especially at short times. Cage residence time is largest for n-pentane and lowest for neopentane. For neopentane, the width of the self-part of the dynamic structure factor shows a near monotonic decrease with wavenumber. For n-pentane a minimum is seen near k=0.5 A degrees(-1) suggesting a slowing down of motion around the 12-ring window, the bottleneck for diffusion. Finally, the result that the branched isomer has a higher diffusivity as compared with the linear analog is at variation from what is normally seen.