Development and Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Models for Monthly Precipitation

Several statistical downscaling models have been developed in the past couple of decades to assess the hydrologic impacts of climate change by projecting the station-scale hydrological variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). This paper presents and compares different statistical downscaling models that use multiple linear regression (MLR), positive coefficient regression (PCR), stepwise regression (SR), and support vector machine (SVM) techniques for estimating monthly rainfall amounts in the state of Florida. Mean sea level pressure, air temperature, geopotential height, specific humidity, U wind, and V wind are used as the explanatory variables/predictors in the downscaling models. Data for these variables are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis dataset and the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) GCM simulations. The principal component analysis (PCA) and fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) are used as part of downscaling model to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset and identify the clusters in the data, respectively. Evaluation of the performances of the models using different error and statistical measures indicates that the SVM-based model performed better than all the other models in reproducing most monthly rainfall statistics at 18 sites. Output from the third-generation CGCM3 GCM for the A1B scenario was used for future projections. For the projection period 2001-10, MLR was used to relate variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales. Use of MLR in linking the predictor variables at the GCM and NCEP grid scales yielded better reproduction of monthly rainfall statistics at most of the stations (12 out of 18) compared to those by spatial interpolation technique used in earlier studies.

Precipitation response of the magnesium alloy WE43 in strained and unstrained conditions

The precipitation behavior of the magnesium alloy WE43 (Mg-4%Y-2.3%Nd-0.5%Zr) has been studied in strained and unstrained conditions using Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM). Ageing treatments were carried out at three temperatures, namely 210 degrees C, 230 degrees C and 260 degrees C. The precipitation sequence during static aging of solution treated (ST) samples has been identified as ST —> beta'' —> beta' followed by the formation of beta(1) and equilibrium beta precipitates form after very long ageing periods. Dynamic precipitation was observed during high temperature deformation, leading to the formation of beta' and intermediate beta(1) precipitates. The strained samples, when further heat treated, resulted in the transformation of beta(1) into beta equilibrium precipitates. The sequence of dynamic precipitation is ST —> beta(1) —> beta and ST —> beta'. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Charge density distribution and electrostatic interactions of ethionamide: an inhibitor of the enoyl acyl carrier protein reductase (inhA) enzyme of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

An experimental charge density analysis of an anti-TB drug ethionamide was carried out from high resolution X-ray diffraction at 100 K to understand its charge density distribution and electrostatic properties. The experimental results were validated from periodic theoretical charge density calculations performed using CRYSTAL09 at the B3LYP/6-31G** level of theory. The electron density rho(bcp)(r) and the Laplacian of electron density del(2)(rho bcp)(r) of the molecule calculated from both the methods display the charge density distribution of the ethionamide molecule in the crystal field. The electrostatic potential map shows a large electropositive region around the pyridine ring and a large electronegative region at the vicinity of the thiol atom. The calculated experimental dipole moment is 10.6D, which is higher than the value calculated from theory (8.2D). The topological properties of C-H center dot center dot center dot S, N-H center dot center dot center dot N and N-H center dot center dot center dot S hydrogen bonds were calculated, revealing their strength. The charge density analysis of the ethionamide molecule determined from both the experiment and theory gives the topological and electrostatic properties of the molecule, which allows to precisely understand the nature of intra and intermolecular interactions.

Performance evaluation of AR4 Climate Models in simulating daily precipitation over the Indian region using skill scores

The ability of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's fourth assessment report (IPCC AR4) for the 20th century climate (20C3M scenario) to simulate the daily precipitation over the Indian region is explored. The skill is evaluated on a 2.5A degrees x 2.5A degrees grid square compared with the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) gridded dataset, and every GCM is ranked for each of these grids based on its skill score. Skill scores (SSs) are estimated from the probability density functions (PDFs) obtained from observed IMD datasets and GCM simulations. The methodology takes into account (high) extreme precipitation events simulated by GCMs. The results are analyzed and presented for three categories and six zones. The three categories are the monsoon season (JJASO - June to October), non-monsoon season (JFMAMND - January to May, November, December) and for the entire year (''Annual''). The six precipitation zones are peninsular, west central, northwest, northeast, central northeast India, and the hilly region. Sensitivity analysis was performed for three spatial scales, 2.5A degrees grid square, zones, and all of India, in the three categories. The models were ranked based on the SS. The category JFMAMND had a higher SS than the JJASO category. The northwest zone had higher SSs, whereas the peninsular and hilly regions had lower SS. No single GCM can be identified as the best for all categories and zones. Some models consistently outperformed the model ensemble, and one model had particularly poor performance. Results show that most models underestimated the daily precipitation rates in the 0-1 mm/day range and overestimated it in the 1-15 mm/day range.

Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: Remote versus local effects

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

Microstructure and Crystallographic Texture Evolution During the Friction-Stir Processing of a Precipitation-Hardenable Aluminum Alloy

Friction-stir processing (FSP) has been proven as a successful method for the grain refinement of high-strength aluminum alloys. The most important attributes of this process are the fine-grain microstructure and characteristic texture, which impart suitable properties in the as-processed material. In the current work, FSP of the precipitation-hardenable aluminum alloy 2219 has been carried out and the consequent evolution of microstructure and texture has been studied. The as-processed materials were characterized using electron back-scattered diffraction, x-ray diffraction, and electron probe microanalysis. Onion-ring formation was observed in the nugget zone, which has been found to be related to the precipitation response and crystallographic texture of the alloy. Texture development in the alloy has been attributed to the combined effect of shear deformation and dynamic recrystallization. The texture was found heterogeneous even within the nugget zone. A microtexture analysis revealed the dominance of shear texture components, with C component at the top of nugget zone and the B and A(2)* components in the middle and bottom. The bulk texture measurement in the nugget zone revealed a dominant C component. The development of a weaker texture along with the presence of some large particles in the nugget zone indicates particle-stimulated nucleation as the dominant nucleation mechanism during FSP. Grain growth follows the Burke and Turnbull mechanism and geometrical coalescence.

Probable maximum precipitation estimation for catchments in Mahanadi river basin

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is a theoretical concept that is widely used by hydrologists to arrive at estimates for probable maximum flood (PMF) that find use in planning, design and risk assessment of high-hazard hydrological structures such as flood control dams upstream of populated areas. The PMP represents the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is meteorologically possible for a watershed or an area at a particular time of year, with no allowance made for long-term climatic trends. Various methods are in use for estimation of PMP over a target location corresponding to different durations. Moisture maximization method and Hershfield method are two widely used methods. The former method maximizes the observed storms assuming that the atmospheric moisture would rise up to a very high value estimated based on the maximum daily dew point temperature. On the other hand, the latter method is a statistical method based on a general frequency equation given by Chow. The present study provides one-day PMP estimates and PMP maps for Mahanadi river basin based on the aforementioned methods. There is a need for such estimates and maps, as the river basin is prone to frequent floods. Utility of the constructed PMP maps in computing PMP for various catchments in the river basin is demonstrated. The PMP estimates can eventually be used to arrive at PMF estimates for those catchments. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evaluation of Precipitation Retrievals From Orbital Data Products of TRMM Over a Subtropical Basin in India

The spatial error structure of daily precipitation derived from the latest version 7 (v7) tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) level 2 data products are studied through comparison with the Asian precipitation highly resolved observational data integration toward evaluation of the water resources (APHRODITE) data over a subtropical region of the Indian subcontinent for the seasonal rainfall over 6 years from June 2002 to September 2007. The data products examined include v7 data from the TRMM radiometer Microwave Imager (TMI) and radar precipitation radar (PR), namely, 2A12, 2A25, and 2B31 (combined data from PR and TMI). The spatial distribution of uncertainty from these data products were quantified based on performance metrics derived from the contingency table. For the seasonal daily precipitation over a subtropical basin in India, the data product of 2A12 showed greater skill in detecting and quantifying the volume of rainfall when compared with the 2A25 and 2B31 data products. Error characterization using various error models revealed that random errors from multiplicative error models were homoscedastic and that they better represented rainfall estimates from 2A12 algorithm. Error decomposition techniques performed to disentangle systematic and random errors verify that the multiplicative error model representing rainfall from 2A12 algorithm successfully estimated a greater percentage of systematic error than 2A25 or 2B31 algorithms. Results verify that although the radiometer derived 2A12 rainfall data is known to suffer from many sources of uncertainties, spatial analysis over the case study region of India testifies that the 2A12 rainfall estimates are in a very good agreement with the reference estimates for the data period considered.

Coupled Mechanisms of Precipitation and Atomization in Burning Nanofluid Fuel Droplets

Understanding the combustion characteristics of fuel droplets laden with energetic nanoparticles (NP) is pivotal for lowering ignition delay, reducing pollutant emissions and increasing the combustion efficiency in next generation combustors. In this study, first we elucidate the feedback coupling between two key interacting mechanisms, namely, secondary atomization and particle agglomeration; that govern the effective mass fraction of NPs within the droplet. Second, we show how the initial NP concentration modulates their relative dominance leading to a masterslave configuration. Secondary atomization of novel nanofuels is a crucial process since it enables an effective transport of dispersed NPs to the flame (a pre-requisite condition for NPs to burn). Contrarily, NP agglomeration at the droplet surface leads to shell formation thereby retaining NPs inside the droplet. In particular, we show that at dense concentrations shell formation (master process) dominates over secondary atomization (slave) while at dilute particle loading it is the high frequency bubble ejections (master) that disrupt shell formation (slave) through its rupture and continuous outflux of NPs. This results in distinct combustion residues at dilute and dense concentrations, thereby providing a method of manufacturing flame synthesized microstructures with distinct morphologies.

Comprehensive evaluation of multisatellite precipitation estimates over India using gridded rainfall data

This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of five widely used multisatellite precipitation estimates (MPEs) against 1 degrees x 1 degrees gridded rain gauge data set as ground truth over India. One decade observations are used to assess the performance of various MPEs (Climate Prediction Center (CPC)-South Asia data set, CPC Morphing Technique (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation From Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA-3B42), and Global Precipitation Climatology Project). All MPEs have high detection skills of rain with larger probability of detection (POD) and smaller ``missing'' values. However, the detection sensitivity differs from one product (and also one region) to the other. While the CMORPH has the lowest sensitivity of detecting rain, CPC shows highest sensitivity and often overdetects rain, as evidenced by large POD and false alarm ratio and small missing values. All MPEs show higher rain sensitivity over eastern India than western India. These differential sensitivities are found to alter the biases in rain amount differently. All MPEs show similar spatial patterns of seasonal rain bias and root-mean-square error, but their spatial variability across India is complex and pronounced. The MPEs overestimate the rainfall over the dry regions (northwest and southeast India) and severely underestimate over mountainous regions (west coast and northeast India), whereas the bias is relatively small over the core monsoon zone. Higher occurrence of virga rain due to subcloud evaporation and possible missing of small-scale convective events by gauges over the dry regions are the main reasons for the observed overestimation of rain by MPEs. The decomposed components of total bias show that the major part of overestimation is due to false precipitation. The severe underestimation of rain along the west coast is attributed to the predominant occurrence of shallow rain and underestimation of moderate to heavy rain by MPEs. The decomposed components suggest that the missed precipitation and hit bias are the leading error sources for the total bias along the west coast. All evaluation metrics are found to be nearly equal in two contrasting monsoon seasons (southwest and northeast), indicating that the performance of MPEs does not change with the season, at least over southeast India. Among various MPEs, the performance of TMPA is found to be better than others, as it reproduced most of the spatial variability exhibited by the reference.

On the detection of human influence in extreme precipitation over India

Climate change is expected to influence extreme precipitation which in turn might affect risks of pluvial flooding. Recent studies on extreme rainfall over India vary in their definition of extremes, scales of analyses and conclusions about nature of changes in such extremes. Fingerprint-based detection and attribution (D&A) offer a formal way of investigating the presence of anthropogenic signals in hydroclimatic observations. There have been recent efforts to quantify human effects in the components of the hydrologic cycle at large scales, including precipitation extremes. This study conducts a D&A analysis on precipitation extremes over India, considering both univariate and multivariate fingerprints, using a standardized probability-based index (SPI) from annual maximum one-day (RX1D) and five-day accumulated (RX5D) rainfall. The pattern-correlation based fingerprint method is used for the D&A analysis. Transformation of annual extreme values to SPI and subsequent interpolation to coarser grids are carried out to facilitate comparison between observations and model simulations. Our results show that in spite of employing these methods to address scale and physical processes mismatch between observed and model simulated extremes, attributing changes in regional extreme precipitation to anthropogenic climate change is difficult. At very high (95%) confidence, no signals are detected for RX1D, while for the RX5D and multivariate cases only the anthropogenic (ANT) signal is detected, though the fingerprints are in general found to be noisy. The findings indicate that model simulations may underestimate regional climate system responses to increasing human forcings for extremes, and though anthropogenic factors may have a role to play in causing changes in extreme precipitation, their detection is difficult at regional scales and not statistically significant. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Room temperature ferromagnetism and white light emissive CdS:Cr nanoparticles synthesized by chemical co-precipitation method

Undoped and Cr (3% and 5%) doped CdS nanoparticles were synthesized by chemical co-precipitation method. The synthesized nanocrystalline particles are characterized by energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDAX), scanning electron microscope (SEM), X-ray Diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS), photoluminescence (PL), Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR), vibrating sample magnetometer (VSM) and Raman spectroscopy. XRD studies indicate that Cr doping in host CdS result a structural change from Cubic phase to mixed (cubic + hexagonal) phase. Due to quantum confinement effect, widening of the band gap is observed for undoped and Cr doped CdS nanoparticles compared to bulk CdS. The average particle size calculated from band gap values is in good agreement with the TEM study calculation and it is around 4-5 nm. A strong violet emission band consisting of two emission peaks is observed for undoped CdS nanoparticles, whereas for CdS:Cr nanoparticles, a broad emission band ranging from 420 nm to 730 nm with a maximum at similar to 587 nm is observed. The broad emission band is due to the overlapped emissions from variety of defects. EPR spectra of CdS:Cr samples reveal resonance signal at g = 2.143 corresponding to interacting Cr3+ ions. VSM studies indicate that the diamagnetic CdS nanoparticles are transform to ferromagnetic for 3% Cr3+ doping and the ferromagnetic nature is diminished with increasing the doping concentration to 5%. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.