Buildup of aerosols over the Indian Region

Climate change has great significance globally in general and South Asia in particular. Here we have used data from a network of 35 aerosol observatories over the Indian region to generate the first time regional synthesis using primary data and estimate the aerosol trends. On an average, aerosol optical depth (AOD) was found increasing at a rate of 2.3% (of its value in 1985) per year and more rapidly (similar to 4%) during the last decade. If the trends continue so, AOD at several locations would nearly double and approach unity in the next few decades leading to an enhancement in aerosol-induced lower atmospheric warming by a factor of two. However, a regionally averaged scenario can be ascertained only in the coming years, when longer and denser data would become available. The regional and global climate implications of such trends in the forcing elements need to be better assessed using GCMs.

Performance evaluation of chemistry transport models over India

Using continuous and near-real time measurements of the mass concentrations of black carbon (BC) aerosols near the surface, for a period of 1 year (from January to December 2006) from a network of eight observatories spread over different environments of India, a space-time synthesis is generated. The strong seasonal variations observed, with a winter high and summer low, are attributed to the combined effects of changes in synoptic air mass types, modulated strongly by the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics. Spatial distribution shows much higher BC concentration over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) than the peninsular Indian stations. These were examined against the simulations using two chemical transport models, GOCART (Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport) and CHIMERE for the first time over Indian region. Both the model simulations significantly deviated from the measurements at all the stations; more so during the winter and pre-monsoon seasons and over mega cities. However, the CHIMERE model simulations show better agreement compared with the measurements. Notwithstanding this, both the models captured the temporal variations; at seasonal and subseasonal timescales and the natural variabilities (intra-seasonal oscillations) fairly well, especially at the off-equatorial stations. It is hypothesized that an improvement in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) parameterization scheme for tropical environment might lead to better results with GOCART.

Assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change in Tunga-Bhadra river basin, India with HEC-HMS and SDSM

Climate change would significantly affect many hydrologic systems, which in turn would affect the water availability, runoff, and the flow in rivers. This study evaluates the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydrology of the catchment area of the TungaBhadra River, upstream of the Tungabhadra dam. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System version 3.4 (HEC-HMS 3.4) is used for the hydrological modelling of the study area. Linear-regression-based Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 (SDSM 4.2) is used to downscale the daily maximum and minimum temperature, and daily precipitation in the four sub-basins of the study area. The large-scale climate variables for the A2 and B2 scenarios obtained from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 are used. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the hydrological model is run for the three future periods: 20112040, 20412070, and 20712099. The impacts of climate change on the basin hydrology are assessed by comparing the present and future streamflow and the evapotranspiration estimates. Results of the water balance study suggest increasing precipitation and runoff and decreasing actual evapotranspiration losses over the sub-basins in the study area.

Large scale features and assessment of spatial scale correspondence between TMPA and IMD rainfall datasets over Indian landmass

Daily rainfall datasets of 10 years (1998-2007) of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) version 6 and India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rain gauge have been compared over the Indian landmass, both in large and small spatial scales. On the larger spatial scale, the pattern correlation between the two datasets on daily scales during individual years of the study period is ranging from 0.4 to 0.7. The correlation improved significantly (similar to 0.9) when the study was confined to specific wet and dry spells each of about 5-8 days. Wavelet analysis of intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) of the southwest monsoon rainfall show the percentage contribution of the major two modes (30-50 days and 10-20 days), to be ranging respectively between similar to 30-40% and 5-10% for the various years. Analysis of inter-annual variability shows the satellite data to be underestimating seasonal rainfall by similar to 110 mm during southwest monsoon and overestimating by similar to 150 mm during northeast monsoon season. At high spatio-temporal scales, viz., 1 degrees x1 degrees grid, TMPA data do not correspond to ground truth. We have proposed here a new analysis procedure to assess the minimum spatial scale at which the two datasets are compatible with each other. This has been done by studying the contribution to total seasonal rainfall from different rainfall rate windows (at 1 mm intervals) on different spatial scales (at daily time scale). The compatibility spatial scale is seen to be beyond 5 degrees x5 degrees average spatial scale over the Indian landmass. This will help to decide the usability of TMPA products, if averaged at appropriate spatial scales, for specific process studies, e.g., cloud scale, meso scale or synoptic scale.

Analysis of large-amplitude stratospheric mountain wave event observed from the AIRS and MLS sounders over the western Himalayan region

Mountain waves in the stratosphere have been observed over elevated topographies using both nadir-looking and limb-viewing satellites. However, the characteristics of mountain waves generated over the Himalayan Mountain range and the adjacent Tibetan Plateau are relatively less explored. The present study reports on three-dimensional (3-D) properties of a mountain wave event that occurred over the western Himalayan region on 9 December 2008. Observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on board the Aqua and Microwave Limb Sounder on board the Aura satellites are used to delineate the wave properties. The observed wave properties such as horizontal (lambda(x), lambda(y)) and vertical (lambda(z)) wavelengths are 276 km (zonal), 289 km (meridional), and 25 km, respectively. A good agreement is found between the observed and modeled/analyzed vertical wavelength for a stationary gravity wave determined using the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis winds. The analysis of both the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis and MERRA winds shows that the waves are primarily forced by strong flow across the topography. Using the 3-D properties of waves and the corrected temperature amplitudes, we estimated wave momentum fluxes of the order of similar to 0.05 Pa, which is in agreement with large-amplitude mountain wave events reported elsewhere. In this regard, the present study is considered to be very much informative to the gravity wave drag schemes employed in current general circulation models for this region.

Regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands

This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U-2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India. Results from the downscaling model suggest that the monthly rainfall is likely to increase in the reservoir command area. RH, Tmax and Tmin are also projected to increase with small changes in U-2. Consequently, the reference evapotranspiration, modeled by the Penman-Monteith equation, is predicted to increase. The irrigation requirements are assessed on monthly scale at nine selected locations encompassing the Bhadra reservoir command area. The irrigation requirements are projected to increase, in most cases, suggesting that the effect of projected increase in rainfall on the irrigation demands is offset by the effect due to projected increase/change in other meteorological variables (viz., Tmax and Tmin, solar radiation, RH and U-2). The irrigation demand assessment study carried out at a river basin will be useful for future irrigation management systems. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On t-designs and bounds relating query complexity to error resilience in locally correctable codes

An n-length block code C is said to be r-query locally correctable, if for any codeword x ∈ C, one can probabilistically recover any one of the n coordinates of the codeword x by querying at most r coordinates of a possibly corrupted version of x. It is known that linear codes whose duals contain 2-designs are locally correctable. In this article, we consider linear codes whose duals contain t-designs for larger t. It is shown here that for such codes, for a given number of queries r, under linear decoding, one can, in general, handle a larger number of corrupted bits. We exhibit to our knowledge, for the first time, a finite length code, whose dual contains 4-designs, which can tolerate a fraction of up to 0.567/r corrupted symbols as against a maximum of 0.5/r in prior constructions. We also present an upper bound that shows that 0.567 is the best possible for this code length and query complexity over this symbol alphabet thereby establishing optimality of this code in this respect. A second result in the article is a finite-length bound which relates the number of queries r and the fraction of errors that can be tolerated, for a locally correctable code that employs a randomized algorithm in which each instance of the algorithm involves t-error correction.

Missing (in-situ) snow cover data hampers climate change and runoff studies in the Greater Himalayas

The Himalayas are presently holding the largest ice masses outside the polar regions and thus (temporarily) store important freshwater resources. In contrast to the contemplation of glaciers, the role of runoff from snow cover has received comparably little attention in the past, although (i) its contribution is thought to be at least equally or even more important than that of ice melt in many Himalayan catchments and (ii) climate change is expected to have widespread and significant consequences on snowmelt runoff. Here, we show that change assessment of snowmelt runoff and its timing is not as straightforward as often postulated, mainly as larger partial pressure of H2O, CO2, CH4, and other greenhouse gases might increase net long-wave input for snowmelt quite significantly in a future atmosphere. In addition, changes in the short-wave energy balance such as the pollution of the snow cover through black carbon or the sensible or latent heat contribution to snowmelt are likely to alter future snowmelt and runoff characteristics as well. For the assessment of snow cover extent and depletion, but also for its monitoring over the extremely large areas of the Himalayas, remote sensing has been used in the past and is likely to become even more important in the future. However, for the calibration and validation of remotely-sensed data, and even-more so in light of possible changes in snow-cover energy balance, we strongly call for more in-situ measurements across the Himalayas, in particular for daily data on new snow and snow cover water equivalent, or the respective energy balance components. Moreover, data should be made accessible to the scientific community, so that the latter can more accurately estimate climate change impacts on Himalayan snow cover and possible consequences thereof on runoff. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Role of orography in modulating space-time scales of convection over South Asia

Propagation of convective systems in the meridional direction during boreal summer is responsible for active and break phases of monsoon over south Asia. This region is unique in the world in its characteristics of monsoon variability and is in close proximity of mountains like the Himalayas. Here, using an atmospheric general circulation model, we try to understand the role of orography in determining spatial and temporal scales of these convective systems. Absence of orography (noGlOrog) decreased the simulated seasonal mean precipitation over India by 23 % due to delay in onset by about a month vis-a-vis the full-mountain case. In noGlOrog, poleward propagations were absent during the delayed period prior to onset. Post-onset, both simulations had similar patterns of poleward propagations. The spatial and temporal scales of propagating clouds bands were determined using wavelet analysis. These scales were found to be different in full-mountain and no-mountain experiments in June-July. However, after the onset of monsoon in noGlOrog, these scales become similar to that with orography. Simulations with two different sets of convection schemes confirmed this result. Further analysis shows that the absence (presence) of meridional propagations during early (late) phase of summer monsoon in noGlOrog was associated with weaker (stronger) vertical shear of zonal wind over south Asia. Our study shows that orography plays a major role in determining the time of onset over the Indian region. However, after onset, basic characteristics of propagating convective systems and therefore the monthly precipitation over India, are less sensitive to the presence of orography and are modulated by moist convective processes.

Tuning nuclearity of clusters by positional change of functional group: Synthesis of polynuclear clusters, crystal structures and magnetic properties

Four neutral polynuclear magnetic clusters, (Mn6Mn2Na2I)-Mn-III-Na-II(N-3)(8)(mu(1)-O)(2)(L-1)(6)(CH3OH)(2)] (1), (Mn6Na2I)-Na-III(N-3)(4)(mu(4)-O)(2)(L-2)(4)(CH3COO)(4)] (2), Ni-5(II)(N-3)(4)(HL1)(4)(HCOO)(2)(CH3OH)(2)(H2O)(2)]center dot 2CH(3)OH (3) and (Ni4Na2I)-Na-II(N-3)(4)(HL2)(6)]center dot 2CH(3)OH (4) have been synthesized using tetradentate ligands H2L1-2 along with azide as a co-ligand. H2L1-2 are the products formed in situ upon condensation of 2-hydroxy-3-methoxybenzaldehyde with 1-aminopropan-2-ol and 1-aminopropan-3-ol, respectively. Single crystal X-ray diffraction and bond valence sum calculation showed that complex 1 is composed of both Mn-III and Mn-II. Complex 3 contains coordinated formate, which was formed upon in situ oxidation of methanol. The magnetic study over a wide range of temperatures of all the complexes (1-4) showed that 1 and 2 are antiferromagnetic whereas other two (3-4) are predominantly ferromagnetic. The estimated ground states of the complexes are S approximate to 3(1), S = 4(2), S = 5(3) and S approximate to 4(4), respectively. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal variability of forest communities: empirical estimates of population change in 4000 tree species

Long-term surveys of entire communities of species are needed to measure fluctuations in natural populations and elucidate the mechanisms driving population dynamics and community assembly. We analysed changes in abundance of over 4000 tree species in 12 forests across the world over periods of 6-28years. Abundance fluctuations in all forests are large and consistent with population dynamics models in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role. At some sites we identify clear environmental drivers, such as fire and drought, that could underlie these patterns, but at other sites there is a need for further research to identify drivers. In addition, cross-site comparisons showed that abundance fluctuations were smaller at species-rich sites, consistent with the idea that stable environmental conditions promote higher diversity. Much community ecology theory emphasises demographic variance and niche stabilisation; we encourage the development of theory in which temporal environmental variance plays a central role.

Top Yukawa coupling measurement with indefinite CP Higgs in e(+)e(-) -> t(t)over-bar Phi

We consider the issue of the top quark Yukawa coupling measurement in a model-independent and general case with the inclusion of CP violation in the coupling. Arguably the best process to study this coupling is the associated production of the Higgs boson along with a t (t) over bar pair in a machine like the International Linear Collider (ILC). While detailed analyses of the sensitivity of the measurement-assuming a Standard Model (SM)-like coupling is available in the context of the ILC-conclude that the coupling could be pinned down to about a 10% level with modest luminosity, our investigations show that the scenario could be different in the case of a more general coupling. The modified Lorentz structure resulting in a changed functional dependence of the cross section on the coupling, along with the difference in the cross section itself leads to considerable deviation in the sensitivity. Our studies of the ILC with center-of-mass energies of 500 GeV, 800 GeV, and 1000 GeV show that moderate CP mixing in the Higgs sector could change the sensitivity to about 20%, while it could be worsened to 75% in cases which could accommodate more dramatic changes in the coupling. Detailed considerations of the decay distributions point to a need for a relook at the analysis strategy followed for the case of the SM, such as for a model-independent analysis of the top quark Yukawa coupling measurement. This study strongly suggests that a joint analysis of the CP properties and the Yukawa coupling measurement would be the way forward at the ILC and that caution must be exercised in the measurement of the Yukawa couplings and the conclusions drawn from it.

An assessment of terrestrial water storage, rainfall and river discharge over Northern India from satellite data

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) plays a key role in the global water cycle and is highly influenced by climate variability and human activities. In this study, monthly TWS, rainfall and Ganga-Brahmaputra river discharge (GBRD) are analysed over India for the period of 2003-12 using remote sensing satellite data. The spatial pattern of mean TWS shows a decrease over a large and populous region of Northern India comprising the foothills of the Himalayas, the Indo-Gangetic Plains and North East India. Over this region, the mean monthly TWS exhibits a pronounced seasonal cycle and a large interannual variability, highly correlated with rainfall and GBRD variations (r > 0.8) with a lag time of 2 months and 1 month respectively. The time series of monthly TWS shows a consistent and statistically significant decrease of about 1 cm year(-1) over Northern India, which is not associated with changes in rainfall and GBRD. This recent change in TWS suggests a possible impact of rapid industrialization, urbanization and increase in population on land water resources. Our analysis highlights the potential of the Earth-observation satellite data for hydrological applications.

Assessing impact of material transition and thermal comfort models on embodied and operational energy in vernacular dwellings (India)

Vernacular dwellings are well-suited climate-responsive designs that adopt local materials and skills to support comfortable indoor environments in response to local climatic conditions. These naturally-ventilated passive dwellings have enabled civilizations to sustain even in extreme climatic conditions. The design and physiological resilience of the inhabitants have coevolved to be attuned to local climatic and environmental conditions. Such adaptations have perplexed modern theories in human thermal-comfort that have evolved in the era of electricity and air-conditioned buildings. Vernacular local building elements like rubble walls and mud roofs are given way to burnt brick walls and reinforced cement concrete tin roofs. Over 60% of Indian population is rural, and implications of such transitions on thermal comfort and energy in buildings are crucial to understand. Types of energy use associated with a buildings life cycle include its embodied energy, operational and maintenance energy, demolition and disposal energy. Embodied Energy (EE) represents total energy consumption for construction of building, i.e., embodied energy of building materials, material transportation energy and building construction energy. Embodied energy of building materials forms major contribution to embodied energy in buildings. Operational energy (OE) in buildings mainly contributed by space conditioning and lighting requirements, depends on the climatic conditions of the region and comfort requirements of the building occupants. Less energy intensive natural materials are used for traditional buildings and the EE of traditional buildings is low. Transition in use of materials causes significant impact on embodied energy of vernacular dwellings. Use of manufactured, energy intensive materials like brick, cement, steel, glass etc. contributes to high embodied energy in these dwellings. This paper studies the increase in EE of the dwelling attributed to change in wall materials. Climatic location significantly influences operational energy in dwellings. Buildings located in regions experiencing extreme climatic conditions would require more operational energy to satisfy the heating and cooling energy demands throughout the year. Traditional buildings adopt passive techniques or non-mechanical methods for space conditioning to overcome the vagaries of extreme climatic variations and hence less operational energy. This study assesses operational energy in traditional dwelling with regard to change in wall material and climatic location. OE in the dwellings has been assessed for hot-dry, warm humid and moderate climatic zones. Choice of thermal comfort models is yet another factor which greatly influences operational energy assessment in buildings. The paper adopts two popular thermal-comfort models, viz., ASHRAE comfort standards and TSI by Sharma and Ali to investigate thermal comfort aspects and impact of these comfort models on OE assessment in traditional dwellings. A naturally ventilated vernacular dwelling in Sugganahalli, a village close to Bangalore (India), set in warm - humid climate is considered for present investigations on impact of transition in building materials, change in climatic location and choice of thermal comfort models on energy in buildings. The study includes a rigorous real time monitoring of the thermal performance of the dwelling. Dynamic simulation models validated by measured data have also been adopted to determine the impact of the transition from vernacular to modern material-configurations. Results of the study and appraisal for appropriate thermal comfort standards for computing operational energy has been presented and discussed in this paper. (c) 2014 K.I. Praseeda. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Assessment of land surface temperature and heat fluxes over Delhi using remote sensing data

Surface energy processes has an essential role in urban weather, climate and hydrosphere cycles, as well in urban heat redistribution. The research was undertaken to analyze the potential of Landsat and MODIS data in retrieving biophysical parameters in estimating land surface temperature & heat fluxes diurnally in summer and winter seasons of years 2000 and 2010 and understanding its effect on anthropogenic heat disturbance over Delhi and surrounding region. Results show that during years 2000-2010, settlement and industrial area increased from 5.66 to 11.74% and 4.92 to 11.87% respectively which in turn has direct effect on land surface temperature (LST) and heat fluxes including anthropogenic heat flux. Based on the energy balance model for land surface, a method to estimate the increase in anthropogenic heat flux (Has) has been proposed. The settlement and industrial areas has higher amounts of energy consumed and has high values of Has in all seasons. The comparison of satellite derived LST with that of field measured values show that Landsat estimated values are in close agreement within error of 2 degrees C than MODIS with an error of 3 degrees C. It was observed that, during 2000 and 2010, the average change in surface temperature using Landsat over settlement & industrial areas of both seasons is 1.4 degrees C & for MODIS data is 3.7 degrees C. The seasonal average change in anthropogenic heat flux (Has) estimated using Landsat & MODIS is up by around 38 W/m(2) and 62 W/m(2) respectively while higher change is observed over settlement and concrete structures. The study reveals that the dynamic range of Has values has increased in the 10 year period due to the strong anthropogenic influence over the area. The study showed that anthropogenic heat flux is an indicator of the strength of urban heat island effect, and can be used to quantify the magnitude of the urban heat island effect. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.