Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Study of the random vibration of nonlinear systems by the Gaussian closure technique

A technique is developed to study random vibration of nonlinear systems. The method is based on the assumption that the joint probability density function of the response variables and input variables is Gaussian. It is shown that this method is more general than the statistical linearization technique in that it can handle non-Gaussian excitations and amplitude-limited responses. As an example a bilinear hysteretic system under white noise excitation is analyzed. The prediction of various response statistics by this technique is in good agreement with other available results.

Phase-shift randomness in one-dimensional disordered conductors in the quasi-metallic domain

An invariant imbedding method yields exact analytical results for the distribution of the phase theta (L) of the reflection amplitude and for low-order resistance moments (pn) for a disordered conductor of length L in the quasi-metallic regime L<assumption for studying scaling of resistance in one dimension is thus obtained.

Parametrized tests of post-Newtonian theory using Advanced LIGO and Einstein Telescope

General relativity has very specific predictions for the gravitational waveforms from inspiralling compact binaries obtained using the post-Newtonian (PN) approximation. We investigate the extent to which the measurement of the PN coefficients, possible with the second generation gravitational-wave detectors such as the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) and the third generation gravitational-wave detectors such as the Einstein Telescope (ET), could be used to test post-Newtonian theory and to put bounds on a subclass of parametrized-post-Einstein theories which differ from general relativity in a parametrized sense. We demonstrate this possibility by employing the best inspiralling waveform model for nonspinning compact binaries which is 3.5PN accurate in phase and 3PN in amplitude. Within the class of theories considered, Advanced LIGO can test the theory at 1.5PN and thus the leading tail term. Future observations of stellar mass black hole binaries by ET can test the consistency between the various PN coefficients in the gravitational-wave phasing over the mass range of 11-44M(circle dot). The choice of the lower frequency cutoff is important for testing post-Newtonian theory using the ET. The bias in the test arising from the assumption of nonspinning binaries is indicated.

A simple model for protein thermal denaturation

Whether proteins denature in all-or-none fashion or in a continuous fashion is as yet an unresolved problem. The all-or-none process implies that while the process of denaturation is going on, only two kinds of protein molecules can exist. One is completely unchanged and the other is altered. The altered protein molecules are indistinguishable. Underlying the 'continuum' models is the assumption that all the chains in a protein globule undergo similar changes so that it is enough to consider a single chain.

Steady compressible flow of granular materials through a wedge-shaped hopper: The smooth wall, radial gravity problem

A continuum model based on the critical state theory of soil mechanics is used to generate stress and density profiles, and to compute discharge velocities for the plane flow of cohesionless materials. Two types of yield loci are employed, namely, a yield locus with a corner, and a smooth yield locus. The yield locus with a corner leads to computational difficulties. For the smooth yield locus, results are found to be relatively insensitive to the shape of the yield locus, the location of the upper traction-free surface and the density specified on this surface. This insensitivity arises from the existence of asymptotic stress and density fields, to which the solution tends to converge on moving down the hopper. Numerical and approximate analytical solutions are obtained for these fields and the latter is used to derive an expression for the discharge velocity. This relation predicts discharge velocities to within 13% of the exact (numerical) values. While the assumption of incompressibility has been frequently used in the literature, it is shown here that in some cases, this leads to discharge velocities which are significantly higher than those obtained by the incorporation of density variation.

Risk minimization in water quality control problems of a river system

Methodologies are presented for minimization of risk in a river water quality management problem. A risk minimization model is developed to minimize the risk of low water quality along a river in the face of conflict among various stake holders. The model consists of three parts: a water quality simulation model, a risk evaluation model with uncertainty analysis and an optimization model. Sensitivity analysis, First Order Reliability Analysis (FORA) and Monte-Carlo simulations are performed to evaluate the fuzzy risk of low water quality. Fuzzy multiobjective programming is used to formulate the multiobjective model. Probabilistic Global Search Laussane (PGSL), a global search algorithm developed recently, is used for solving the resulting non-linear optimization problem. The algorithm is based on the assumption that better sets of points are more likely to be found in the neighborhood of good sets of points, therefore intensifying the search in the regions that contain good solutions. Another model is developed for risk minimization, which deals with only the moments of the generated probability density functions of the water quality indicators. Suitable skewness values of water quality indicators, which lead to low fuzzy risk are identified. Results of the models are compared with the results of a deterministic fuzzy waste load allocation model (FWLAM), when methodologies are applied to the case study of Tunga-Bhadra river system in southern India, with a steady state BOD-DO model. The fractional removal levels resulting from the risk minimization model are slightly higher, but result in a significant reduction in risk of low water quality. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inhibition of peroxidase-catalyzed protein tyrosine nitration by antithyroid drugs and their analogues

In this paper, we describe the effect of some commonly used thiourea-based antithyroid drugs and their analogues on the peroxidase-catalyzed nitration reactions. The nitration of bovine serum albumin (BSA) and cytochrome c was studied using the antibody against 3-nitro-L-tyrosine. This study reveals that the thione-based antithyroid drugs effectively inhibit lactoperoxidase (LPO)-catalyzed nitration of BSA. These compounds show very weak inhibition towards the nitration of cytochrome c. Some of these compounds also inhibit myeloperoxidase (MPO)-catalyzed nitration of L-tyrosine. A structure-activity correlation study on the peroxidase-catalyzed nitration of L-tyrosine reveals that the presence of thione/selone moiety is important for the inhibition. Although the presence of a free N-H group adjacent to C=S moiety is necessary for most of the thiones to inhibit the LPO-catalyzed nitration, the corresponding selones do not require the presence of any free N-H group for their activity. Furthermore, experiments with different concentrations of H2O2 suggest that the antithyroid drugs and related thiones inhibit the nitration reaction mainly by coordinating to the Fe(III)-center of the enzyme active site as previously proposed for the inhibition of peroxidase-catalyzed iodination. On the other hand, the selenium compounds inhibit the nitration by scavenging H2O2 without interacting with the enzyme active site. This assumption is based on the observations that catalase effectively inhibits tyrosine nitration by scavenging H2O2, which is one of the substrates for the nitration. In contrast, superoxide dismutase (SOD) does not alter the nitration reactions, indicating the absence of superoxide radical anion (O-2 center dot(-)) during the peroxidase-catalyzed nitration reactions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Elasto-Electrostatic Analysis of Circular Microplates Used in Capacitive Micromachined Ultrasonic Transducers

The active structural component of a capacitive micromachined ultrasonic transducer (CMUT) is the top plate which vibrates under the influence of a time-varying electrostatic force thereby producing ultrasound waves of the desired frequency in the surrounding medium. Analysis of MEMS devices which rely on electrostatic actuation is complicated due to the fact that the structural deformations alter the electrostatic forces, which redistribute and modify the applied loads. Hence, it becomes imperative to consider the electrostatics-structure coupling aspect in the design of these devices. This paper presents an approximate analytical solution for the static deflection of a thin, clamped circular plate caused by electrostatic forces which are inherently nonlinear. Traditionally, finite element simulations using some commercial software such as ANSYS are employed to determine the structural deflections caused by electrostatic forces. Since the structural deformation alters the electrostatic field, a coupled-field simulation is required wherein the electrostatic mesh is continuously updated to coincide with the deflection of the structure. Such simulations are extremely time consuming, in addition to being nontransparent and somewhat hard to implement. We employ the classical thin-plate theory which is adequate when the ratio of the diameter to thickness of the plate is very large, a situation commonly prevalent in many MEMS devices, especially the CMUTs. We solve the thin-plate electrostatic-elastic equation using the Galerkin-weighted residual technique, under the assumption that the deflections are small in comparison to the thickness of the plate. The evaluation of the electrostatic force between the two plates is simplified due to the fact that the electrostatic gap is much smaller than the lateral dimensions of the device. The results obtained are compared to those found from ANSYS simulations and an excellent agreement is observed between the two. The pull-in voltage predicted by our model is close to the value predicted by ANSYS simulations.

Systems analysis for planning of air fleets and maintenance facilities

The high cost and extraordinary demands made on sophisticated air defence systems, pose hard challenges to the managers and engineers who plan the operation and maintenance of such systems. This paper presents a study aimed at developing simulation and systems analysis techniques for the effective planning and efficient operation of small fleets of aircraft, typical of the air force of a developing country. We consider an important aspect of fleet management: the problem of resource allocation for achieving prescribed operational effectiveness of the fleet. At this stage, we consider a single flying-base, where the operationally ready aircraft are stationed, and a repair-depot, where the planes are overhauled. An important measure of operational effectiveness is ‘ availability ’, which may be defined as the expected fraction of the fleet fit for use at a given instant. The tour of aircraft in a flying-base, repair-depot system through a cycle of ‘ operationally ready ’ and ‘ scheduled overhaul ’ phases is represented first by a deterministic flow process and then by a cyclic queuing process. Initially the steady-state availability at the flying-base is computed under the assumptions of Poisson arrivals, exponential service times and an equivalent singleserver repair-depot. This analysis also brings out the effect of fleet size on availability. It defines a ‘ small ’ fleet essentially in terms of the important ‘ traffic ’ parameter of service rate/maximum arrival rate.A simulation model of the system has been developed using GPSS to study sensitivity to distributional assumptions, to validate the principal assumptions of the analytical model such as the single-server assumption and to obtain confidence intervals for the statistical parameters of interest.

Characterization of unitary processes with independent and stationary increments

This is a continuation of the earlier work (Publ. Res. Inst. Math. Sci. 45 (2009) 745-785) to characterize unitary stationary independent increment Gaussian processes. The earlier assumption of uniform continuity is replaced by weak continuity and with technical assumptions on the domain of the generator, unitary equivalence of the process to the solution of an appropriate Hudson-Parthasarathy equation is proved.

Mixed Convection Induced in a Gas Flowing Past a Hot Horizontal Flat Plate

A boundary layer analysis of mixed convective motion over a hot horizontal flat plate is performed under the conditions of steady flow and low speed. Use of the Howarth-Dorodnytsyn transformation makes it possible to dispense with the usual Boussinesq approximation, and variable gas properties are accounted for via the assumption that dynamic viscosity and thermal conductivity are proportional to the absolute temperature. The formulation presented enables the entire mixed convection regime to be described by a single set of equations. Finite difference solutions when the Prandtl number is 0.72 are obtained over the entire range of the mixed convection parameter ξ from 0 (free convection) to 1 (forced convection) and heating parameter ▵ values from 2 to 12. The effects of both ξ and ▵on the velocity profiles, the temperature profiles, and the variation of skin friction and heat transfer functions are clearly illustrated in tables and graphs.

On the models for deuterium long-range isotope effects in13C NMR spectroscopy

The long-range deuterium isotope effects on13C nuclear shielding are physically not yet completely understood. Two existing models for explaining these effects, vibrational and substituent, are compared here. The vibrational model is based on the Born-Oppenheimer approximation, but it can explain only one-bond deuterium effects. To the contrary, the substituent model may explain many long-range isotope effects, but it is controversial due to the assumption of some distinct electronic properties of isotopes. We explain how long-range deuterium isotope effects may be rationalized by the subtle electronic changes induced by isotope substitution, which does not violate the Born-Oppenheimer approximation.

Rocking response of rectangular rigid blocks under random noise base excitations

The response of a rigid rectangular block resting on a rigid foundation and acted upon simultaneously by a horizontal and a vertical random white-noise excitation is considered. In the equation of motion, the energy dissipation is modeled through a viscous damping term. Under the assumption that the body does not topple, the steady-state joint probability density function of the rotation and the rotational velocity is obtained using the Fokker-Planck equation approach. Closed form solution is obtained for a specific combination of system parameters. A more general but approximate solution to the joint probability density function based on the method of equivalent non-linearization is also presented. Further, the problem of overturning of the block is approached in the framework of the diffusion methods for first passage failure studies. The overturning of the block is deemed incipient when the response trajectories in the phase plane cross the separatrix of the conservative unforced system. Expressions for the moments of first passage time are obtained via a series solution to the governing generalized Pontriagin-Vitt equations. Numerical results illustra- tive of the theoretical solutions are presented and their validity is examined through limited amount of digital simulations.

Stress and strength analysis of pin joints in laminated anisotropic plates

Mechanical joints in composites can be tailored to achieve improved performance and better life by appropriately selecting the laminate parameters. In order to gain the best advantage of this possibility of tailoring the laminate, it is necessary to understand the influence of laminate parameters on the behaviour of joints in composites. Most of the earlier studies in this direction were based on simplified assumptions regarding load transfer at the pin-plate interface and such studies were only carried out on orthotropic and quasi-isotropic laminates. In the present study, a more rigorous analysis is carried out to study pin joints in laminates with anisotropic properties. Two types of laminates with (0/ + ?4/90)s and (0/ ± ?2/90)s layups made out of graphite epoxy T300/5208 material system are considered. The analysis mainly concentrates on clearance fit in which the pin is of smaller diameter compared to the hole. The main aspect of the analysis of pin joints is the changing contact between the pin and the plate with increasing load levels. The analysis is carried out by an iterative finite element technique and a computationally efficient routine is developed for this purpose. Numerical studies indicate that the location and magnitude of the peak stresses along the hole boundary are functions of fibre angle and the overall anisotropic properties. It is also shown that the conventional assumption of cosine distribution for the contact pressure between pin and the plate in the analysis lead to underestimation of bearing failure load and overestimation of shear and tensile failure loads in typical (0/905)s cross-ply laminates.