Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies show that changes in spatial characteristics of the system could provide early warnings of approaching transitions. However, the empirical validation of these indicators lag behind their theoretical developments. Here, we summarize a range of currently available spatial early warning signals, suggest potential null models to interpret their trends, and apply them to three simulated spatial data sets of systems undergoing an abrupt transition. In addition to providing a step-by-step methodology for applying these signals to spatial data sets, we propose a statistical toolbox that may be used to help detect approaching transitions in a wide range of spatial data. We hope that our methodology together with the computer codes will stimulate the application and testing of spatial early warning signals on real spatial data.

Characterising weather patterns associated with fire in a seasonally dry tropical forest in southern India

Anthropogenic fires in seasonally dry tropical forests are a regular occurrence during the dry season. Forest managers in India, who presently follow a fire suppression policy in such forests, would benefit from a system of assessing the potential risk to fire on a particular day. We examined the relationship between weather variables (seasonal rainfall, relative humidity, temperature) and days of fire during the dry seasons of 2004-2010, based on MODIS fire incident data in the seasonally dry tropical forests of Mudumalai in the Western Ghats, southern India. Logistic regression analysis showed that high probabilities of a fire day, indicating successful ignition of litter and grass fuel on the forest floor, were associated with low levels of early dry season rainfall, low daily average relative humidity and high daily average temperatures. These weather conditions are representative of low moisture levels of fine fuels, suggesting that the occurrence of fire is moderated by environmental conditions that reduce the flammability of fine fuels in the dry tropics. We propose a quantitative framework for assessing risk of a fire day to assist forest managers in anticipating fire occurrences in this seasonally dry tropical forest, and possibly for those across South Asia.

Turing and animal coat patterns

The present article describes a beautiful contribution of Alan Turing to our understanding of how animal coat patterns form. The question that Turing posed was the following. A collection of identical cells (or processors for that matter), all running the exact same program, and all communicating with each other in the exact same way, should always be in the same state. Yet they produce nonhomogeneous periodic patterns, like those seen on animal coats. How does this happen? Turing gave an elegant explanation for this phenomenon, namely that differences between the cells due to small amounts of random noise can actually be amplified into structured periodic patterns. We attempt to describe his core conceptual contribution below.

Monitoring urbanization and its implications in a mega city from space: Spatiotemporal patterns and its indicators

Rapid and invasive urbanization has been associated with depletion of natural resources (vegetation and water resources), which in turn deteriorates the landscape structure and conditions in the local environment. Rapid increase in population due to the migration from rural areas is one of the critical issues of the urban growth. Urbanisation in India is drastically changing the land cover and often resulting in the sprawl. The sprawl regions often lack basic amenities such as treated water supply, sanitation, etc. This necessitates regular monitoring and understanding of the rate of urban development in order to ensure the sustenance of natural resources. Urban sprawl is the extent of urbanization which leads to the development of urban forms with the destruction of ecology and natural landforms. The rate of change of land use and extent of urban sprawl can be efficiently visualized and modelled with the help of geo-informatics. The knowledge of urban area, especially the growth magnitude, shape geometry, and spatial pattern is essential to understand the growth and characteristics of urbanization process. Urban pattern, shape and growth can be quantified using spatial metrics. This communication quantifies the urbanisation and associated growth pattern in Delhi. Spatial data of four decades were analysed to understand land over and land use dynamics. Further the region was divided into 4 zones and into circles of 1 km incrementing radius to understand and quantify the local spatial changes. Results of the landscape metrics indicate that the urban center was highly aggregated and the outskirts and the buffer regions were in the verge of aggregating urban patches. Shannon's Entropy index clearly depicted the outgrowth of sprawl areas in different zones of Delhi. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simultaneously Uncovering the Patterns of Brain Regions Involved in Different Story Reading Subprocesses

Story understanding involves many perceptual and cognitive subprocesses, from perceiving individual words, to parsing sentences, to understanding the relationships among the story characters. We present an integrated computational model of reading that incorporates these and additional subprocesses, simultaneously discovering their fMRI signatures. Our model predicts the fMRI activity associated with reading arbitrary text passages, well enough to distinguish which of two story segments is being read with 74% accuracy. This approach is the first to simultaneously track diverse reading subprocesses during complex story processing and predict the detailed neural representation of diverse story features, ranging from visual word properties to the mention of different story characters and different actions they perform. We construct brain representation maps that replicate many results from a wide range of classical studies that focus each on one aspect of language processing and offer new insights on which type of information is processed by different areas involved in language processing. Additionally, this approach is promising for studying individual differences: it can be used to create single subject maps that may potentially be used to measure reading comprehension and diagnose reading disorders.

The tarani mutation alters surface curvature in Arabidopsis leaves by perturbing the patterns of surface expansion and cell division

The leaf surface usually stays flat, maintained by coordinated growth. Growth perturbation can introduce overall surface curvature, which can be negative, giving a saddle-shaped leaf, or positive, giving a cup-like leaf. Little is known about the molecular mechanisms that underlie leaf flatness, primarily because only a few mutants with altered surface curvature have been isolated and studied. Characterization of mutants of the CINCINNATA-like TCP genes in Antirrhinum and Arabidopsis have revealed that their products help maintain flatness by balancing the pattern of cell proliferation and surface expansion between the margin and the central zone during leaf morphogenesis. On the other hand, deletion of two homologous PEAPOD genes causes cup-shaped leaves in Arabidopsis due to excess division of dispersed meristemoid cells. Here, we report the isolation and characterization of an Arabidopsis mutant, tarani (tni), with enlarged, cup-shaped leaves. Morphometric analyses showed that the positive curvature of the tni leaf is linked to excess growth at the centre compared to the margin. By monitoring the dynamic pattern of CYCLIN D3;2 expression, we show that the shape of the primary arrest front is strongly convex in growing tni leaves, leading to excess mitotic expansion synchronized with excess cell proliferation at the centre. Reduction of cell proliferation and of endogenous gibberellic acid levels rescued the tni phenotype. Genetic interactions demonstrated that TNI maintains leaf flatness independent of TCPs and PEAPODs.

An island called India: phylogenetic patterns across multiple taxonomic groups reveal endemic radiations

Island systems from around the world have provided fascinating opportunities for studies pertaining to various evolutionary processes. One recurring feature of isolated islands is the presence of endemic radiations. In this regard, the Indian subcontinent is an interesting entity given it has been an island during much of its history following separation from Madagascar and currently is isolated from much of Eurasia by the Himalayas in the north and the Indian Ocean in the south. Not surprisingly, recent molecular studies on a number of endemic taxa from India have reported endemic radiations. These studies suggest that the uniqueness of Indian biota is not just due to its diverse origin, but also due to evolution in isolation. The isolation of India has generated some peculiarities typically seen on oceanic islands. However, these patterns might be confined to, groups with low dispersal ability.

Environmental monitoring of bacterial contamination and antibiotic resistance patterns of the fecal coliforms isolated from Cauvery River, a major drinking water source in Karnataka, India

The present study focuses prudent elucidation of microbial pollution and antibiotic sensitivity profiling of the fecal coliforms isolated from River Cauvery, a major drinking water source in Karnataka, India. Water samples were collected from ten hotspots during the year 2011-2012. The physiochemical characteristics and microbial count of water samples collected from most of the hotspots exhibited greater biological oxygen demand and bacterial count especially coliforms in comparison with control samples (p <= 0.01). The antibiotic sensitivity testing was performed using 48 antibiotics against the bacterial isolates by disk-diffusion assay. The current study showed that out of 848 bacterial isolates, 93.51 % (n=793) of the isolates were found to be multidrug-resistant to most of the current generation antibiotics. Among the major isolates, 96.46 % (n=273) of the isolates were found to be multidrug-resistant to 30 antibiotics and they were identified to be Escherichia coli by 16S rDNA gene sequencing. Similarly, 93.85 % (n=107), 94.49 % (n=103), and 90.22 % (n=157) of the isolates exhibited multiple drug resistance to 32, 40, and 37 antibiotics, and they were identified to be Enterobacter cloacae, Pseudomonas trivialis, and Shigella sonnei, respectively. The molecular studies suggested the prevalence of blaTEM genes in all the four isolates and dhfr gene in Escherichia coli and Sh. sonnei. Analogously, most of the other Gram-negative bacteria were found to be multidrug-resistant and the Gram-positive bacteria, Staphylococcus spp. isolated from the water samples were found to be methicillin and vancomycin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. This is probably the first study elucidating the bacterial pollution and antibiotic sensitivity profiling of fecal coliforms isolated from River Cauvery, Karnataka, India.

Deciphering complex patterns of class-I HLA-peptide cross-reactivity via hierarchical grouping

T-cell responses in humans are initiated by the binding of a peptide antigen to a human leukocyte antigen (HLA) molecule. The peptide-HLA complex then recruits an appropriate T cell, leading to cell-mediated immunity. More than 2000 HLA class-I alleles are known in humans, and they vary only in their peptide-binding grooves. The polymorphism they exhibit enables them to bind a wide range of peptide antigens from diverse sources. HLA molecules and peptides present a complex molecular recognition pattern, as many peptides bind to a given allele and a given peptide can be recognized by many alleles. A powerful grouping scheme that not only provides an insightful classification, but is also capable of dissecting the physicochemical basis of recognition specificity is necessary to address this complexity. We present a hierarchical classification of 2010 class-I alleles by using a systematic divisive clustering method. All-pair distances of alleles were obtained by comparing binding pockets in the structural models. By varying the similarity thresholds, a multilevel classification was obtained, with 7 supergroups, each further subclassifying to yield 72 groups. An independent clustering performed based only on similarities in their epitope pools correlated highly with pocket-based clustering. Physicochemical feature combinations that best explain the basis of clustering are identified. Mutual information calculated for the set of peptide ligands enables identification of binding site residues contributing to peptide specificity. The grouping of HLA molecules achieved here will be useful for rational vaccine design, understanding disease susceptibilities and predicting risk of organ transplants.

Differences in host species relationships and biogeographic influences produce contrasting patterns of prevalence, community composition and genetic structure in two genera of avian malaria parasites in southern Melanesia

1. Host-parasite interactions have the potential to influence broadscale ecological and evolutionary processes, levels of endemism, divergence patterns and distributions in host populations. Understanding the mechanisms involved requires identification of the factors that shape parasite distribution and prevalence. 2. A lack of comparative information on community-level host-parasite associations limits our understanding of the role of parasites in host population divergence processes. Avian malaria (haemosporidian) parasites in bird communities offer a tractable model system to examine the potential for pathogens to influence evolutionary processes in natural host populations. 3. Using cytochrome b variation, we characterized phylogenetic diversity and prevalence of two genera of avian haemosporidian parasites, Plasmodium and Haemoproteus, and analysed biogeographic patterns of lineages across islands and avian hosts, in southern Melanesian bird communities to identify factors that explain patterns of infection. 4. Plasmodium spp. displayed isolation-by-distance effects, a significant amount of genetic variation distributed among islands but insignificant amounts among host species and families, and strong local island effects with respect to prevalence. Haemoproteus spp. did not display isolation-by-distance patterns, showed marked structuring of genetic variation among avian host species and families, and significant host species prevalence patterns. 5. These differences suggest that Plasmodium spp. infection patterns were shaped by geography and the abiotic environment, whereas Haemoproteus spp. infection patterns were shaped predominantly by host associations. Heterogeneity in the complement and prevalence of parasite lineages infecting local bird communities likely exposes host species to a mosaic of spatially divergent disease selection pressures across their naturally fragmented distributions in southern Melanesia. Host associations for Haemoproteus spp. indicate a capacity for the formation of locally co-adapted host-parasite relationships, a feature that may limit intraspecific gene flow or range expansions of closely related host species.

Kinematic flow patterns in slow deformation of a dense granular material

The kinematic flow pattern in slow deformation of a model dense granular medium is studied at high resolution using in situ imaging, coupled with particle tracking. The deformation configuration is indentation by a flat punch under macroscopic plane-strain conditions. Using a general analysis method, velocity gradients and deformation fields are obtained from the disordered grain arrangement, enabling flow characteristics to be quantified. The key observations are the formation of a stagnation zone, as in dilute granular flow past obstacles; occurrence of vortices in the flow immediately underneath the punch; and formation of distinct shear bands adjoining the stagnation zone. The transient and steady state stagnation zone geometry, as well as the strength of the vortices and strain rates in the shear bands, are obtained from the experimental data. All of these results are well-reproduced in exact-scale non-smooth contact dynamics simulations. Full 3D numerical particle positions from the simulations allow extraction of flow features that are extremely difficult to obtain from experiments. Three examples of these, namely material free surface evolution, deformation of a grain column below the punch and resolution of velocities inside the primary shear band, are highlighted. The variety of flow features observed in this model problem also illustrates the difficulty involved in formulating a complete micromechanical analytical description of the deformation.

Seismotectonics of the April-May 2015 Nepal earthquakes: An assessment based on the aftershock patterns, surface effects and deformational characteristics

Occurrence of the April 25, 2015 (Mw 7.8) earthquake near Gorkha, central Nepal, and another one that followed on May 12 (Mw 7.3), located similar to 140 km to its east, provides an exceptional opportunity to understand some new facets of Himalayan earthquakes. Here we attempt to assess the seismotectonics of these earthquakes based on the deformational field generated by these events, along with the spatial and temporal characteristics of their aftershocks. When integrated with some of the post-earthquake field observations, including the localization of damage and surface deformation, it became obvious that although the mainshock slip was mostly limited to the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT), the rupture did not propagate to the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT). Field evidence, supported by the available InSAR imagery of the deformation field, suggests that a component of slip could have emerged through a previously identified out-of-sequence thrust/active thrust in the region that parallels the Main Central Thrust (MCT), known in the literature as a co-linear physiographic transitional zone called PT2. Termination of the first rupture, triggering of the second large earthquake, and distribution of aftershocks are also spatially constrained by the eastern extremity of PT2. Mechanism of the 2015 sequence demonstrates that the out-of-sequence thrusts may accommodate part of the slip, an aspect that needs to be considered in the current understanding of the mechanism of earthquakes originating on the MHT. (c) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Divergence in Patterns of Leaf Growth Polarity Is Associated with the Expression Divergence of miR396

Lateral appendages often show allometric growth with a specific growth polarity along the proximo-distal axis. Studies on leaf growth in model plants have identified a basipetal growth direction with the highest growth rate at the proximal end and progressively lower rates toward the distal end. Although the molecular mechanisms governing such a growth pattern have been studied recently, variation in leaf growth polarity and, therefore, its evolutionary origin remain unknown. By surveying 75 eudicot species, here we report that leaf growth polarity is divergent. Leaf growth in the proximo-distal axis is polar, with more growth arising from either the proximal or the distal end; dispersed with no apparent polarity; or bidirectional, with more growth contributed by the central region and less growth at either end. We further demonstrate that the expression gradient of the miR396-GROWTH-REGULATING FACTOR module strongly correlates with the polarity of leaf growth. Altering the endogenous pattern of miR396 expression in transgenic Arabidopsis thaliana leaves only partially modified the spatial pattern of cell expansion, suggesting that the diverse growth polarities might have evolved via concerted changes in multiple gene regulatory networks.

Complex patterns arise through spontaneous symmetry breaking in dense homogeneous networks of neural oscillators

There has been much interest in understanding collective dynamics in networks of brain regions due to their role in behavior and cognitive function. Here we show that a simple, homogeneous system of densely connected oscillators, representing the aggregate activity of local brain regions, can exhibit a rich variety of dynamical patterns emerging via spontaneous breaking of permutation or translational symmetries. Upon removing just a few connections, we observe a striking departure from the mean-field limit in terms of the collective dynamics, which implies that the sparsity of these networks may have very important consequences. Our results suggest that the origins of some of the complicated activity patterns seen in the brain may be understood even with simple connection topologies.

Investigation Into Harmful Patterns Over Multitrack Shingled Magnetic Detection Using the Voronoi Model

Two-dimensional magnetic recording 2-D (TDMR) is a promising technology for next generation magnetic storage systems based on a systems-level framework involving sophisticated signal processing at the core. The TDMR channel suffers from severe jitter noise along with electronic noise that needs to be mitigated during signal detection and recovery. Recently, we developed noise prediction-based techniques coupled with advanced signal detectors to work with these systems. However, it is important to understand the role of harmful patterns that can be avoided during the encoding process. In this paper, we investigate the Voronoi-based media model to study the harmful patterns over multitrack shingled recording systems. Through realistic quasi-micromagnetic simulation studies, we identify 2-D data patterns that contribute to high media noise. We look into the generic Voronoi model and present our analysis on multitrack detection with constrained coded data. We show that the 2-D constraints imposed on input patterns result in an order of magnitude improvement in the bit-error rate for the TDMR systems. The use of constrained codes can reduce the complexity of 2-D intersymbol interference (ISI) signal detection, since the lesser 2-D ISI span can be accommodated at the cost of a nominal code rate loss. However, a system must be designed carefully so that the rate loss incurred by a 2-D constraint does not offset the detector performance gain due to more distinguishable readback signals.