Assessing severe Drought and wet events over India in a future climate using a nested bias-correction approach

General circulation models (GCMs) are routinely used to simulate future climatic conditions. However, rainfall outputs from GCMs are highly uncertain in preserving temporal correlations, frequencies, and intensity distributions, which limits their direct application for downscaling and hydrological modeling studies. To address these limitations, raw outputs of GCMs or regional climate models are often bias corrected using past observations. In this paper, a methodology is presented for using a nested bias-correction approach to predict the frequencies and occurrences of severe droughts and wet conditions across India for a 48-year period (2050-2099) centered at 2075. Specifically, monthly time series of rainfall from 17 GCMs are used to draw conclusions for extreme events. An increasing trend in the frequencies of droughts and wet events is observed. The northern part of India and coastal regions show maximum increase in the frequency of wet events. Drought events are expected to increase in the west central, peninsular, and central northeast regions of India. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Tectonic inheritance of the Indian Shield: New insights from its elastic thickness structure

A new evaluation of the elastic thickness (Te) structure of the Indian Shield, derived from isotropic fan wavelet methodology, documents spatial variations of lithospheric deformation in different tectonic provinces correlated with episodic tectono-thermal events. The Te variations corroborated by shear velocity, crustal thickness, and seismogenic thickness reveal the heterogeneous rheology of the Indian lithosphere. The thinned, attenuated lithosphere beneath Peninsular India is considered to be the reason for its mechanically weak strength (<30 km), where a decoupled crust-mantle rheology under different surface/subsurface loading structures may explain the prominent low Te patterns. The arcuate Te structure of the Western Dharwar province and a NNE-trending band of low Te anomaly in the Southern Granulite Terrane are intriguing patterns. The average Te values (40-50 km) of the Central Indian Tectonic Zone, the Bastar Craton, and the northern Eastern Ghats Mobile Belt are suggestive of old, stable, Indian lithosphere, which was not affected by any major tectono-thermal events after cratonic stabilization. We propose that the anomalously high Te (60-85 km) and high S-wave velocity zone to the north of the Narmada-Son Lineament, mainly in NW Himalaya, and the northern Aravalli and Bundelkhand Cratons, suggest that Archean lithosphere characterized by a high velocity mantle keel supports the orogenic topographic loads in/near the Himalaya. The Te map clearly segments the volcanic provinces of the Indian Shield, where the signatures of the Reunion, Marion, and Kerguelen hotspots are indicated by significantly low Te patterns that correlate with plume- and rift-related thermal and mechanical rejuvenation, magmatic underplating, and crustal necking. The correlations between Te variations and the occurrence of seismicity over seismically active zones reveal different causal relationships, which led to the current seismogenic zonation of the Indian Shield. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geochemical behaviour of dissolved trace elements in a monsoon-dominated tropical river basin, Southwestern India

The study presents a 3-year time series data on dissolved trace elements and rare earth elements (REEs) in a monsoon-dominated river basin, the Nethravati River in tropical Southwestern India. The river basin lies on the metamorphic transition boundary which separates the Peninsular Gneiss and Southern Granulitic province belonging to Archean and Tertiary-Quaternary period (Western Dharwar Craton). The basin lithology is mainly composed of granite gneiss, charnockite and metasediment. This study highlights the importance of time series data for better estimation of metal fluxes and to understand the geochemical behaviour of metals in a river basin. The dissolved trace elements show seasonality in the river water metal concentrations forming two distinct groups of metals. First group is composed of heavy metals and minor elements that show higher concentrations during dry season and lesser concentrations during the monsoon season. Second group is composed of metals belonging to lanthanides and actinides with higher concentration in the monsoon and lower concentrations during the dry season. Although the metal concentration of both the groups appears to be controlled by the discharge, there are important biogeochemical processes affecting their concentration. This includes redox reactions (for Fe, Mn, As, Mo, Ba and Ce) and pH-mediated adsorption/desorption reactions (for Ni, Co, Cr, Cu and REEs). The abundance of Fe and Mn oxyhydroxides as a result of redox processes could be driving the geochemical redistribution of metals in the river water. There is a Ce anomaly (Ce/Ce*) at different time periods, both negative and positive, in case of dissolved phase, whereas there is positive anomaly in the particulate and bed sediments. The Ce anomaly correlates with the variations in the dissolved oxygen indicating the redistribution of Ce between particulate and dissolved phase under acidic to neutral pH and lower concentrations of dissolved organic carbon. Unlike other tropical and major world rivers, the effect of organic complexation on metal variability is negligible in the Nethravati River water.

Imprints of Archean to Neoproterozoic crustal processes in the Madurai Block, Southern India

Madurai Block, the largest crustal block in the Southern Granulite Terrane (SGT) of Peninsular India, preserves the imprints of multistage tectonic evolution. Here, we present U-Pb and Hf isotope data on zircons from a charnockite-granite suite in the north-western part of this block. The oscillatory zoning, and the LREE to HREE enriched patterns of the zircons with positive Ce and negative Eu anomalies suggest that the zircon cores are of magmatic origin, with ages in the range of 2634-2435 Ma implying Neoarchean-Paleoproterozoic magmatism followed by subsequent metamorphism and protocontinent formation in the north-western part of the Madurai Block. A regional 550-500 Ma metamorphic overprint is also preserved in the zircons coinciding with the final amalgamation of the Gondwana supercontinent. The Hf isotopic data suggest that the granite and charnockite were derived from isotopically heterogeneous juvenile crustal domains and the charnockites show a significant contribution of mantle-derived components. Therefore, the Hf isotopic data reflect mixing of crustal and mantle-derived sources for the generation of Neoarchean crust in the north-western Madurai Block, possibly in a suprasubduction zone setting during continent building processes. (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ranking of global climate models for India using multicriterion analysis

Eleven GCMs (BCCR-BCCM2.0, INGV-ECHAM4, GFDL2.0, GFDL2.1, GISS, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3, MRI-CGCM2, NCAR-PCMI, UKMO-HADCM3 and UKMO-HADGEM1) were evaluated for India (covering 73 grid points of 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees) for the climate variable `precipitation rate' using 5 performance indicators. Performance indicators used were the correlation coefficient, normalised root mean square error, absolute normalised mean bias error, average absolute relative error and skill score. We used a nested bias correction methodology to remove the systematic biases in GCM simulations. The Entropy method was employed to obtain weights of these 5 indicators. Ranks of the 11 GCMs were obtained through a multicriterion decision-making outranking method, PROMETHEE-2 (Preference Ranking Organisation Method of Enrichment Evaluation). An equal weight scenario (assigning 0.2 weight for each indicator) was also used to rank the GCMs. An effort was also made to rank GCMs for 4 river basins (Godavari, Krishna, Mahanadi and Cauvery) in peninsular India. The upper Malaprabha catchment in Karnataka, India, was chosen to demonstrate the Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 methods. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was employed to assess the association between the ranking patterns. Our results suggest that the ensemble of GFDL2.0, MIROC3, BCCR-BCCM2.0, UKMO-HADCM3, MPIECHAM4 and UKMO-HADGEM1 is suitable for India. The methodology proposed can be extended to rank GCMs for any selected region.

Cryptic species and Miocene diversification of Palaearctic naked-toed geckos (Squamata: Gekkonidae) in the Indian dry zone

We sampled Palaearctic naked-toed geckos from across their range in India and used two mitochondrial and two nuclear genes to reconstruct relationships within a global phylogeny. Published sequences of Peninsular Indian Hemidactylus allow us to contrast these two groups in dating analyses - providing insights into the history of the Indian dry zone. Palaearctic naked-toed geckos first moved onto the Indian Plate in the Oligocene, with higher-level diversification probably linked to collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates, and subsequent dispersal into-India and diversification with increasing Miocene aridity. An independent gekkonid radiation with species in the dry zone, Hemidactylus diversified during the same period in Peninsular India. Our results demonstrate that dry zone taxa across India may date back to at least the Miocene, with a potential historical climatic barrier between the Indus and Peninsular Indian Divisions. `Cyrtopodion' aravallense is revealed to be a complex with seven genetically and environmentally divergent lineages that began diversifying in the late Miocene, congruent with increased aridity in north-western India. This discovery of cryptic diversity in the Indian dry zone represents the first terrestrial vertebrate radiation from north-western central India and highlights how little we understand of the regions' biodiversity, emphasizing the need for systematic geographic sampling and multiline evidence to reveal true patterns of diversity. The ancestor of `Cyrtopodion' aravallense came into the nascent Indian dry zone in the Miocene and has since diversified, potentially in the absence of any sympatric scansorial rupicolous geckos. Cyrtopodion scabrum represents a unique case of commensalism and shows phylogeographic structure in its presumed native range. The taxonomic implications of our study include a number of undescribed species, recognition of `Cyrtopodion' as a distinct lineage and the non-monophyly of Altiphylax.

Phylogeny of the freshwater crabs of the Western Ghats (Brachyura, Gecarcinucidae)

The Western Ghats mountain range in India is a biodiversity hotspot for a variety of organisms including a large number of endemic freshwater crab species and genera of the family Gecarcinucidae. The phylogenetic relationships of these taxa, however, have remained poorly understood. Here, we present a phylogeny that includes 90% of peninsular Indian genera based on mitochondrial 16S rRNA and nuclear histone H3 gene sequences. The subfamily Gecarcinucinae was found to be paraphyletic with members of two other subfamilies, Liotelphusinae and Parathelphusinae, nesting within. We identify a well-supported clade consisting of north Indian species and one clade comprising mostly south Indian species that inhabit the southern sky islands' of the Western Ghats. Relationships of early diverging genera, however, were resolved with low support. This study also includes newly sampled material from an isolated mountain plateau in the northern part of the Western Ghats, representing a new species of Gubernatoriana, which we describe here as Gubernatoriana basalticola sp. n. The new species is immediately distinguished from its congeners and the related genera Ghatiana and Inglethelphusa by its carapace and cheliped morphology, which are unique among Indian freshwater crabs. This study highlights the urgent need for continued faunistic studies to assess the true diversity of gecarcinucid crabs on the Indian subcontinent, to fully understand the basal phylogenetic relationships within the freshwater crab family Gecarcinucidae, and to evaluate the conservation threat status and biogeography of the montane freshwater crabs of the Western Ghats.

Lineage delimitation and description of nine new species of bush frogs (Anura: Raorchestes, Rhacophoridae) from the Western Ghats Escarpment

Bush frogs of the genus Raorchestes are distributed mainly in the Western Ghats Escarpment of Peninsular India. The inventory of species in this genus is incomplete and there is ambiguity in the systematic status of species recognized by morphological criteria. To address the dual problem of taxon sampling and systematic uncertainty in bush frogs, we used a large-scale spatial sampling design, explicitly incorporating the geographic and ecological heterogeneity of the Western Ghats. We then used a hierarchical multi-criteria approach by combining mitochondrial phylogeny, genetic distance, geographic range, morphology and advertisement call to delimit bush frog lineages. Our analyses revealed the existence of a large number of new lineages with varying levels of genetic divergence. Here, we provide diagnoses and descriptions for nine lineages that exhibit divergence across multiple axes. The discovery of new lineages that exhibit high divergence across wide ranges of elevation and across the major massifs highlights the large gaps in historical sampling. These discoveries underscore the significance of addressing inadequate knowledge of species distribution, namely the ``Wallacean shortfall'', in addressing the problem of taxon sampling and unknown diversity in tropical hotspots. A biogeographically informed sampling and analytical approach was critical in detecting and delineating lineages in a consistent manner across the genus. Through increased taxon sampling, we were also able to discern a number of well-supported sub-clades that were either unresolved or absent in earlier phylogenetic reconstructions and identify a number of shallow divergent lineages which require further examination for assessment of their taxonomic status.

Performance evaluation of AR4 Climate Models in simulating daily precipitation over the Indian region using skill scores

The ability of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's fourth assessment report (IPCC AR4) for the 20th century climate (20C3M scenario) to simulate the daily precipitation over the Indian region is explored. The skill is evaluated on a 2.5A degrees x 2.5A degrees grid square compared with the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) gridded dataset, and every GCM is ranked for each of these grids based on its skill score. Skill scores (SSs) are estimated from the probability density functions (PDFs) obtained from observed IMD datasets and GCM simulations. The methodology takes into account (high) extreme precipitation events simulated by GCMs. The results are analyzed and presented for three categories and six zones. The three categories are the monsoon season (JJASO - June to October), non-monsoon season (JFMAMND - January to May, November, December) and for the entire year (''Annual''). The six precipitation zones are peninsular, west central, northwest, northeast, central northeast India, and the hilly region. Sensitivity analysis was performed for three spatial scales, 2.5A degrees grid square, zones, and all of India, in the three categories. The models were ranked based on the SS. The category JFMAMND had a higher SS than the JJASO category. The northwest zone had higher SSs, whereas the peninsular and hilly regions had lower SS. No single GCM can be identified as the best for all categories and zones. Some models consistently outperformed the model ensemble, and one model had particularly poor performance. Results show that most models underestimated the daily precipitation rates in the 0-1 mm/day range and overestimated it in the 1-15 mm/day range.

Crustal Evolution of Kolli-Massif, Southern India

Southern India is a collage of numerous crustal fragments formed since the Archean (2500 Ma ago) and reworked several times during the geological history. A close look at these terrains provides a window to understand the crustal evolutionary processes experienced by the continental crust in the past, such as crustal growth (formation of crust through addition of new magma) and crustal reworking (modification of an already existing crust). Here we discuss the evolutionary history of such a crustal fragment from the Southern Granulite Terrain (SGT) in peninsular India, namely Kolli-massif. Geology, structural deformation through time, and the implications in crustal assembly of southern India are exponded.

Estimation of Parameters for Battery Storage Models

This paper presents a comprehensive and robust strategy for the estimation of battery model parameters from noise corrupted data. The deficiencies of the existing methods for parameter estimation are studied and the proposed parameter estimation strategy improves on earlier methods by working optimally for low as well as high discharge currents, providing accurate estimates even under high levels of noise, and with a wide range of initial values. Testing on different data sets confirms the performance of the proposed parameter estimation strategy.

Coupling geomorphology parameters with lithology for micro-level groundwater resource assessment: a case study from semi-arid hard rock terrain in Tamil Nadu, India

The standard procedure of groundwater resource estimation in India till date is based on the specific yield parameters of each rock type (lithology) derived through pumping test analysis. Using the change in groundwater level, specific yield, and area of influence, groundwater storage change could be estimated. However, terrain conditions in the form of geomorphological variations have an important bearing on the net groundwater recharge. In this study, an attempt was made to use both lithology and geomorphology as input variables to estimate the recharge from different sources in each lithology unit influenced by the geomorphic conditions (lith-geom), season wise separately. The study provided a methodological approach for an evaluation of groundwater in a semi-arid hard rock terrain in Tirunelveli, Tamil Nadu, India. While characterizing the gneissic rock, it was found that the geomorphologic variations in the gneissic rock due to weathering and deposition behaved differently with respect to aquifer recharge. The three different geomorphic units identified in gneissic rock (pediplain shallow weathered (PPS), pediplain moderate weathered (PPM), and buried pediplain moderate (BPM)) showed a significant variation in recharge conditions among themselves. It was found from the study that Peninsular gneiss gives a net recharge value of 0.13 m/year/unit area when considered as a single unit w.r.t. lithology, whereas the same area considered with lith-geom classes gives recharge values between 0.1 and 0.41 m/year presenting a different assessment. It is also found from this study that the stage of development (SOD) for each lith-geom unit in Peninsular gneiss varies from 168 to 230 %, whereas the SOD is 223 % for the lithology as a single unit.

Evolution of social behaviour in the primitively eusocial wasp Ropalidia marginata: do we need to look beyond kin selection?

Ropalidia marginata is a primitively eusocial wasp widely distributed in peninsular India. Although solitary females found a small proportion of nests, the vast majority of new nests are founded by small groups of females. In suchmultiple foundress nests, a single dominant female functions as the queen and lays eggs, while the rest function as sterile workers and care for the queen's brood. Previous attempts to understand the evolution of social behaviour and altruism in this species have employed inclusive fitness theory (kin selection) as a guiding framework. Although inclusive fitness theory is quite successful in explaining the high propensity of the wasps to found nests in groups, several features of their social organization suggest that forces other than kin selection may also have played a significant role in the evolution of this species. These features include lowering of genetic relatedness owing to polyandry and serial polygyny, nest foundation by unrelated individuals, acceptance of young non-nest-mates, a combination of well-developed nest-mate recognition and lack of intra-colony kin recognition, a combination of meek and docile queens and a decentralized self-organized work force, long reproductive queues with cryptic heir designates and conflict-free queen succession, all resulting in extreme intra-colony cooperation and inter-colony conflict.

Molecular phylogeny of Glyphochloa (Poaceae, Panicoideae), an endemic grass genus from the Western Ghats, India

The genus Glyphochloa (Poaceae: Panicoideae: Andropogoneae: Rottboellinae) is endemic to peninsular India and is distributed on lateritic plateaus of low and high altitude in and around Western Ghats and the Malabar Coast. The genus presumably originated and diversified in the Western Ghats. Species relationships in the genus Glyphochloa were deduced here based on molecular phylogenies inferred using nuclear ribosomal ITS sequences and plastid intergenic spacer regions (atpB-rbcL, trnT-trnL, trnL-trnF), and new observations were made of spikelet morphology, caryopsis morphology and meiotic chromosome counts. We observed two distinct clades of Glyphochloa s.l. One of these (group I') includes Ophiuros bombaiensis, and is characterized by a single-awned lower glume and a base chromosome number of 6; it grows in low elevation coastal areas. The other clade (group II') has a double-awned lower glume, a base chromosome number of 7, and is restricted to higher elevation lateritic plateaus; G. ratnagirica may belong to the group II clade, or may be a third distinct lineage in the genus. A sister-group relationship between group I and II taxa (with or without G. ratnagirica) is not well supported, although the genus is recovered as monophyletic in shortest trees inferred using ITS or concatenated plastid data. We present a key to species of Glyphochloa and make a new combination for O. bombaiensis.

Effect of strain rate response and pin diameter on mechanically mixed layer formation and wear mechanisms in a Ti6Al4V-SS316L pair

Three mechanisms operate during wear of materials. These mechanisms include the Strain Rate Response (SRR - effect of strain rate on plastic deformation), Tribo-Chemical Reactions (TCR) and formation of Mechanically Mixed Layers (MML). The present work investigates the effect of these three in context of the formation of MML. For this wear experiments are done on a pin-on-disc machine using Ti64 as the pin and SS316L as the disc. It is seen that apart from the speed and load, which control the SRR and TCR, the diameter of the pin controls the formation of MML, especially at higher speeds.