Copula-Based Modeling of TMI Brightness Temperature With Rainfall Type

Overland rain retrieval using spaceborne microwave radiometer offers a myriad of complications as land presents itself as a radiometrically warm and highly variable background. Hence, land rainfall algorithms of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) have traditionally incorporated empirical relations of microwave brightness temperature (Tb) with rain rate, rather than relying on physically based radiative transfer modeling of rainfall (as implemented in the TMI ocean algorithm). In this paper, sensitivity analysis is conducted using the Spearman rank correlation coefficient as benchmark, to estimate the best combination of TMI low-frequency channels that are highly sensitive to the near surface rainfall rate from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). Results indicate that the TMI channel combinations not only contain information about rainfall wherein liquid water drops are the dominant hydrometeors but also aid in surface noise reduction over a predominantly vegetative land surface background. Furthermore, the variations of rainfall signature in these channel combinations are not understood properly due to their inherent uncertainties and highly nonlinear relationship with rainfall. Copula theory is a powerful tool to characterize the dependence between complex hydrological variables as well as aid in uncertainty modeling by ensemble generation. Hence, this paper proposes a regional model using Archimedean copulas, to study the dependence of TMI channel combinations with respect to precipitation, over the land regions of Mahanadi basin, India, using version 7 orbital data from the passive and active sensors on board TRMM, namely, TMI and PR. Studies conducted for different rainfall regimes over the study area show the suitability of Clayton and Gumbel copulas for modeling convective and stratiform rainfall types for the majority of the intraseasonal months. Furthermore, large ensembles of TMI Tb (from the most sensitive TMI channel combination) were generated conditional on various quantiles (25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th) of the convective and the stratiform rainfall. Comparatively greater ambiguity was observed to model extreme values of the convective rain type. Finally, the efficiency of the proposed model was tested by comparing the results with traditionally employed linear and quadratic models. Results reveal the superior performance of the proposed copula-based technique.

Homeostasis of functional maps in active dendrites emerges in the absence of individual channelostasis

The maintenance of ion channel homeostasis, or channelostasis, is a complex puzzle in neurons with extensive dendritic arborization, encompassing a combinatorial diversity of proteins that encode these channels and their auxiliary subunits, their localization profiles, and associated signaling machinery. Despite this, neurons exhibit amazingly stereotypic, topographically continuous maps of several functional properties along their active dendritic arbor. Here, we asked whether the membrane composition of neurons, at the level of individual ion channels, is constrained by this structural requirement of sustaining several functional maps along the same topograph. We performed global sensitivity analysis on morphologically realistic conductance-based models of hippocampal pyramidal neurons that coexpressed six well-characterized functional maps along their trunk. We generated randomized models by varying 32 underlying parameters and constrained these models with quantitative experimental measurements from the soma and dendrites of hippocampal pyramidal neurons. Analyzing valid models that satisfied experimental constraints on all six functional maps, we found topographically analogous functional maps to emerge from disparate model parameters with weak pairwise correlations between parameters. Finally, we derived a methodology to assess the contribution of individual channel conductances to the various functional measurements, using virtual knockout simulations on the valid model population. We found that the virtual knockout of individual channels resulted in variable, measurement and location-specific impacts across the population. Our results suggest collective channelostasis as a mechanism behind the robust emergence of analogous functional maps and have significant ramifications for the localization and targeting of ion channels and enzymes that regulate neural coding and homeostasis.

Performance evaluation of AR4 Climate Models in simulating daily precipitation over the Indian region using skill scores

The ability of Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's fourth assessment report (IPCC AR4) for the 20th century climate (20C3M scenario) to simulate the daily precipitation over the Indian region is explored. The skill is evaluated on a 2.5A degrees x 2.5A degrees grid square compared with the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) gridded dataset, and every GCM is ranked for each of these grids based on its skill score. Skill scores (SSs) are estimated from the probability density functions (PDFs) obtained from observed IMD datasets and GCM simulations. The methodology takes into account (high) extreme precipitation events simulated by GCMs. The results are analyzed and presented for three categories and six zones. The three categories are the monsoon season (JJASO - June to October), non-monsoon season (JFMAMND - January to May, November, December) and for the entire year (''Annual''). The six precipitation zones are peninsular, west central, northwest, northeast, central northeast India, and the hilly region. Sensitivity analysis was performed for three spatial scales, 2.5A degrees grid square, zones, and all of India, in the three categories. The models were ranked based on the SS. The category JFMAMND had a higher SS than the JJASO category. The northwest zone had higher SSs, whereas the peninsular and hilly regions had lower SS. No single GCM can be identified as the best for all categories and zones. Some models consistently outperformed the model ensemble, and one model had particularly poor performance. Results show that most models underestimated the daily precipitation rates in the 0-1 mm/day range and overestimated it in the 1-15 mm/day range.

Analogous Synaptic Plasticity Profiles Emerge from Disparate Channel Combinations

An open question within the Bienenstock-Cooper-Munro theory for synaptic modification concerns the specific mechanism that is responsible for regulating the sliding modification threshold (SMT). In this conductance-based modeling study on hippocampal pyramidal neurons, we quantitatively assessed the impact of seven ion channels (R- and T-type calcium, fast sodium, delayed rectifier, A-type, and small-conductance calcium-activated (SK) potassium and HCN) and two receptors (AMPAR and NMDAR) on a calcium-dependent Bienenstock-Cooper-Munro-like plasticity rule. Our analysis with R- and T-type calcium channels revealed that differences in their activation-inactivation profiles resulted in differential impacts on how they altered the SMT. Further, we found that the impact of SK channels on the SMT critically depended on the voltage dependence and kinetics of the calcium sources with which they interacted. Next, we considered interactions among all the seven channels and the two receptors through global sensitivity analysis on 11 model parameters. We constructed 20,000 models through uniform randomization of these parameters and found 360 valid models based on experimental constraints on their plasticity profiles. Analyzing these 360 models, we found that similar plasticity profiles could emerge with several nonunique parametric combinations and that parameters exhibited weak pairwise correlations. Finally, we used seven sets of virtual knock-outs on these 360 models and found that the impact of different channels on the SMT was variable and differential. These results suggest that there are several nonunique routes to regulate the SMT, and call for a systematic analysis of the variability and state dependence of the mechanisms underlying metaplasticity during behavior and pathology.

A thermodynamic framework for the evolution of damage in concrete under fatigue

A closed-form expression for the dual of dissipation potential is derived within the framework of irreversible thermodynamics using the principles of dimensional analysis and self-similarity. Through this potential, a damage evolution law is proposed for concrete under fatigue loading using the concepts of damage mechanics in conjunction with fracture mechanics. The proposed law is used to compute damage in a volume element when a member is subjected to fatigue loading. The evolution of damage from microcracking to macrocracking of the entire member is captured through a series of volume elements failing one after the other. The number of loading cycles to failure of the member is obtained as the summation of number of cycles to failure for each individual volume element. A parametric study is conducted to determine the effect of the size of the volume element on the model's prediction of fatigue life. A global damage index is also defined, and the residual moment carrying capacity of damaged beams is evaluated. Through a deterministic sensitivity analysis, it is found that the load range and maximum aggregate size are the most influencing parameters on the fatigue life of a plain concrete beam.

Multiobjective fuzzy optimization for sustainable groundwater management using particle swarm optimization and analytic element method

Groundwater management involves conflicting objectives as maximization of discharge contradicts the criteria of minimum pumping cost and minimum piping cost. In addition, available data contains uncertainties such as market fluctuations, variations in water levels of wells and variations of ground water policies. A fuzzy model is to be evolved to tackle the uncertainties, and a multiobjective optimization is to be conducted to simultaneously satisfy the contradicting objectives. Towards this end, a multiobjective fuzzy optimization model is evolved. To get at the upper and lower bounds of the individual objectives, particle Swarm optimization (PSO) is adopted. The analytic element method (AEM) is employed to obtain the operating potentio metric head. In this study, a multiobjective fuzzy optimization model considering three conflicting objectives is developed using PSO and AEM methods for obtaining a sustainable groundwater management policy. The developed model is applied to a case study, and it is demonstrated that the compromise solution satisfies all the objectives with adequate levels of satisfaction. Sensitivity analysis is carried out by varying the parameters, and it is shown that the effect of any such variation is quite significant. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Influence of Anisotropy on Pavement Responses Using Adaptive Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansion

Modeling the spatial variability that exists in pavement systems can be conveniently represented by means of random fields; in this study, a probabilistic analysis that considers the spatial variability, including the anisotropic nature of the pavement layer properties, is presented. The integration of the spatially varying log-normal random fields into a linear-elastic finite difference analysis has been achieved through the expansion optimal linear estimation method. For the estimation of the critical pavement responses, metamodels based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) are developed to replace the computationally expensive finite-difference model. The sparse polynomial chaos expansion based on an adaptive regression-based algorithm, and enhanced by the combined use of the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is used, with significant savings in computational effort. The effect of anisotropy in each layer on the pavement responses was studied separately, and an effort is made to identify the pavement layer wherein the introduction of anisotropic characteristics results in the most significant impact on the critical strains. It is observed that the anisotropy in the base layer has a significant but diverse effect on both critical strains. While the compressive strain tends to be considerably higher than that observed for the isotropic section, the tensile strains show a decrease in the mean value with the introduction of base-layer anisotropy. Furthermore, asphalt-layer anisotropy also tends to decrease the critical tensile strain while having little effect on the critical compressive strain. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Application of D transforms in the analysis of nonlinear distributed parameter systems

The scope of application of Laplace transforms presently limited to the study of linear partial differential equations, is extended to the nonlinear domain by this study. This has been achieved by modifying the definition of D transforms, put forth recently for the study of classes of nonlinear lumped parameter systems. The appropriate properties of the new D transforms are presented to bring out their applicability in the analysis of nonlinear distributed parameter systems.

Rotation sensitivity of Lau fringes: an analysis based on coherence theory

An analysis based on coherence theory is presented, which explains the experimentally observed rotation sensitivity of the contrast of Lau fringes obtained under spatially incoherent illumination.

Systems analysis for planning of air fleets and maintenance facilities

The high cost and extraordinary demands made on sophisticated air defence systems, pose hard challenges to the managers and engineers who plan the operation and maintenance of such systems. This paper presents a study aimed at developing simulation and systems analysis techniques for the effective planning and efficient operation of small fleets of aircraft, typical of the air force of a developing country. We consider an important aspect of fleet management: the problem of resource allocation for achieving prescribed operational effectiveness of the fleet. At this stage, we consider a single flying-base, where the operationally ready aircraft are stationed, and a repair-depot, where the planes are overhauled. An important measure of operational effectiveness is ‘ availability ’, which may be defined as the expected fraction of the fleet fit for use at a given instant. The tour of aircraft in a flying-base, repair-depot system through a cycle of ‘ operationally ready ’ and ‘ scheduled overhaul ’ phases is represented first by a deterministic flow process and then by a cyclic queuing process. Initially the steady-state availability at the flying-base is computed under the assumptions of Poisson arrivals, exponential service times and an equivalent singleserver repair-depot. This analysis also brings out the effect of fleet size on availability. It defines a ‘ small ’ fleet essentially in terms of the important ‘ traffic ’ parameter of service rate/maximum arrival rate.A simulation model of the system has been developed using GPSS to study sensitivity to distributional assumptions, to validate the principal assumptions of the analytical model such as the single-server assumption and to obtain confidence intervals for the statistical parameters of interest.

Sensitivity of Lau fringes to grating rotation: theoretical analysis

Recently reported experimental results on the rotation sensitivity of Lau fringes to the spatial coherence of the source have been theoretically analyzed and explained on the basis of coherence theory. A theoretical plot of the rotation angle required for the Lau fringes to vanish is obtained as a function of the coherence length of the illumination used in the Lau experiment. The theoretical results compare well with the experimental observations. The analysis as well as the experiment could form the basis for a simple and easy measurement of the coherence length of the illumination in a plane.

Modified lattice model for mode-I fracture analysis of notched plain concrete beam using probabilistic approach

A modified lattice model using finite element method has been developed to study the mode-I fracture analysis of heterogeneous materials like concrete. In this model, the truss members always join at points where aggregates are located which are modeled as plane stress triangular elements. The truss members are given the properties of cement mortar matrix randomly, so as to represent the randomness of strength in concrete. It is widely accepted that the fracture of concrete structures should not be based on strength criterion alone, but should be coupled with energy criterion. Here, by incorporating the strain softening through a parameter ‘α’, the energy concept is introduced. The softening branch of load-displacement curves was successfully obtained. From the sensitivity study, it was observed that the maximum load of a beam is most sensitive to the tensile strength of mortar. It is seen that by varying the values of properties of mortar according to a normal random distribution, better results can be obtained for load-displacement diagram.

Analysis of Parameter Values in the van der Waals and Platteeuw Theory for Methane Hydrates Using Monte Carlo Molecular Simulations

The van der Waals and Platteuw (vdVVP) theory has been successfully used to model the thermodynamics of gas hydrates. However, earlier studies have shown that this could be due to the presence of a large number of adjustable parameters whose values are obtained through regression with experimental data. To test this assertion, we carry out a systematic and rigorous study of the performance of various models of vdWP theory that have been proposed over the years. The hydrate phase equilibrium data used for this study is obtained from Monte Carlo molecular simulations of methane hydrates. The parameters of the vdWP theory are regressed from this equilibrium data and compared with their true values obtained directly from simulations. This comparison reveals that (i) methane-water interactions beyond the first cage and methane-methane interactions make a significant contribution to the partition function and thus cannot be neglected, (ii) the rigorous Monte Carlo integration should be used to evaluate the Langmuir constant instead of the spherical smoothed cell approximation, (iii) the parameter values describing the methane-water interactions cannot be correctly regressed from the equilibrium data using the vdVVP theory in its present form, (iv) the regressed empty hydrate property values closely match their true values irrespective of the level of rigor in the theory, and (v) the flexibility of the water lattice forming the hydrate phase needs to be incorporated in the vdWP theory. Since methane is among the simplest of hydrate forming molecules, the conclusions from this study should also hold true for more complicated hydrate guest molecules.

Analysis of fatigue crack growth in RC beams

In this work, a fatigue crack propagation model developed using dimensional analysis for plain concrete is used in conjunction with the steel closing force to predict the crack growth behavior of reinforced concrete beams. A numerical procedure is followed using the proposed model to compute the fatigue life of RC beams and the dissipated energy in the steel reinforcement due to shake down behavior. Through a sensitivity study, it is found that the structural size is the most sensitive parameter on which the crack growth rate is dependent. Furthermore, the moment carrying capacity of an RC beam is computed as function of crack size by considering the effect of bond slip.