Influence of rock depth on seismic site classification for shallow bedrock regions

Seismic site classifications are used to represent site effects for estimating hazard parameters (response spectral ordinates) at the soil surface. Seismic site classifications have generally been carried out using average shear wave velocity and/or standard penetration test n-values of top 30-m soil layers, according to the recommendations of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) or the International Building Code (IBC). The site classification system in the NEHRP and the IBC is based on the studies carried out in the United States where soil layers extend up to several hundred meters before reaching any distinct soil-bedrock interface and may not be directly applicable to other regions, especially in regions having shallow geological deposits. This paper investigates the influence of rock depth on site classes based on the recommendations of the NEHRP and the IBC. For this study, soil sites having a wide range of average shear wave velocities (or standard penetration test n-values) have been collected from different parts of Australia, China, and India. Shear wave velocities of rock layers underneath soil layers have also been collected at depths from a few meters to 180 m. It is shown that a site classification system based on the top 30-m soil layers often represents stiffer site classes for soil sites having shallow rock depths (rock depths less than 25 m from the soil surface). A new site classification system based on average soil thickness up to engineering bedrock has been proposed herein, which is considered more representative for soil sites in shallow bedrock regions. It has been observed that response spectral ordinates, amplification factors, and site periods estimated using one-dimensional shear wave analysis considering the depth of engineering bedrock are different from those obtained considering top 30-m soil layers.

Estimation of design basis earthquake using region-specific M-max, for the NPP site at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, India

The objective of the paper is to estimate Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE) and Operating/Design Basis Earthquake (OBE/DBE) for the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) site located at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, India. The NPP is located at 12.558 degrees N, 80.175 degrees E and a 500 km circular area around NPP site is considered as `seismic study area' based on past regional earthquake damage distribution. The geology, seismicity and seismotectonics of the study area are studied and the seismotectonic map is prepared showing the seismic sources and the past earthquakes. Earthquake data gathered from many literatures are homogenized and declustered to form a complete earthquake catalogue for the seismic study area. The conventional maximum magnitude of each source is estimated considering the maximum observed magnitude (M-max(obs)) and/or the addition of 0.3 to 0.5 to M-max(obs). In this study maximum earthquake magnitude has been estimated by establishing a region's rupture character based on source length and associated M-max(obs). A final source-specific M-max is selected from the three M-max values by following the logical criteria. To estimate hazard at the NPP site, ten Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) valid for the study area are considered. These GMPEs are ranked based on Log-Likelihood (LLH) values. Top five GMPEs are considered to estimate the peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the site. Maximum PGA is obtained from three faults and named as vulnerable sources to decide the magnitudes of OBE and SSE. The average and normalized site specific response spectrum is prepared considering three vulnerable sources and further used to establish site-specific design spectrum at NPP site.

Constraining large earthquakes along the Andaman trench using deepwater turbidites: prospects and challenges

The 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake was unprecedented in terms of its magnitude (M-w 9.2), rupture length along the plate boundary (1300 km) and size of the resultant tsunami. Since 2004, efforts are being made to improve the understanding of the seismic hazard in the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone in terms of recurrence patterns of major earthquakes and tsunamis. It is reasonable to assume that previous earthquake events in the Myanmar Andaman segment must be preserved in the geological record in the form of seismo-turbidite sequences. Here we present the prospects of conducting deep ocean palaeoseismicity investigations in order to refine the quantification of the recurrence pattern of large subduction-zone earthquakes along the Andaman-Myanmar arc. Our participation in the Sagar Kanya cruise SK-273 (in June 2010) was to test the efficacy of such a survey. The primary mission of the cruise, along a short length (300 km) of the Sumatra Andaman subduction front was to collect bathymetric data of the ocean floor trenchward of the Andaman Islands. The agenda of our piggyback survey was to fix potential coring sites that might preserve seismo-turbidite deposits. In this article we present the possibilities and challenges of such an exercise and our first-hand experience of such a preliminary survey. This account will help future researchers with similar scientific objectives who would want to survey the deep ocean archives of this region for evidence of extreme events like major earthquakes.

Ground motion prediction equation considering combined dataset of recorded and simulated ground motions

Himalayan region is one of the most active seismic regions in the world and many researchers have highlighted the possibility of great seismic event in the near future due to seismic gap. Seismic hazard analysis and microzonation of highly populated places in the region are mandatory in a regional scale. Region specific Ground Motion Predictive Equation (GMPE) is an important input in the seismic hazard analysis for macro- and micro-zonation studies. Few GMPEs developed in India are based on the recorded data and are applicable for a particular range of magnitudes and distances. This paper focuses on the development of a new GMPE for the Himalayan region considering both the recorded and simulated earthquakes of moment magnitude 5.3-8.7. The Finite Fault simulation model has been used for the ground motion simulation considering region specific seismotectonic parameters from the past earthquakes and source models. Simulated acceleration time histories and response spectra are compared with available records. In the absence of a large number of recorded data, simulations have been performed at unavailable locations by adopting Apparent Stations concept. Earthquakes recorded up to 2007 have been used for the development of new GMPE and earthquakes records after 2007 are used to validate new GMPE. Proposed GMPE matched very well with recorded data and also with other highly ranked GMPEs developed elsewhere and applicable for the region. Comparison of response spectra also have shown good agreement with recorded earthquake data. Quantitative analysis of residuals for the proposed GMPE and region specific GMPEs to predict Nepal-India 2011 earthquake of Mw of 5.7 records values shows that the proposed GMPE predicts Peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for entire distance and period range with lower percent residual when compared to exiting region specific GMPEs. Crown Copyright (C) 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

AIPE-active green phosphorescent iridium(III) complex impregnated test strips for the vapor-phase detection of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT)

Detection of explosives, especially trinitrotoluene (TNT), is of utmost importance due to its highly explosive nature and environmental hazard. Therefore, detection of TNT has been a matter of great concern to the scientific community worldwide. Herein, a new aggregation-induced phosphorescent emission (AIPE)-active iridium(III) bis(2-(2,4-difluorophenyl)pyridinato-NC2') (2-(2-pyridyl)benzimidazolato-N,N') complex FIrPyBiz] has been developed and serves as a molecular probe for the detection of TNT in the vapor phase, solid phase, and aqueous media. In addition, phosphorescent test strips have been constructed by impregnating Whatman filter paper with aggregates of FIrPyBiz for trace detection of TNT in contact mode, with detection limits in nanograms, by taking advantage of the excited state interaction of AIPE-active phosphorescent iridium(III) complex with that of TNT and the associated photophysical properties.

Seismic microzonation of a nuclear power plant site with detailed geotechnical, geophysical and site effect studies

This paper highlights the seismic microzonation carried out for a nuclear power plant site. Nuclear power plants are considered to be one of the most important and critical structures designed to withstand all natural disasters. Seismic microzonation is a process of demarcating a region into individual areas having different levels of various seismic hazards. This will help in identifying regions having high seismic hazard which is vital for engineering design and land-use planning. The main objective of this paper is to carry out the seismic microzonation of a nuclear power plant site situated in the east coast of South India, based on the spatial distribution of the hazard index value. The hazard index represents the consolidated effect of all major earthquake hazards and hazard influencing parameters. The present work will provide new directions for assessing the seismic hazards of new power plant sites in the country. Major seismic hazards considered for the evaluation of the hazard index are (1) intensity of ground shaking at bedrock, (2) site amplification, (3) liquefaction potential and (4) the predominant frequency of the earthquake motion at the surface. The intensity of ground shaking in terms of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) was estimated for the study area using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches with logic tree methodology. The site characterization of the study area has been carried out using the multichannel analysis of surface waves test and available borehole data. One-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out at major locations within the study area for evaluating PHA and spectral accelerations at the ground surface. Based on the standard penetration test data, deterministic as well as probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis has been carried out for the entire study area. Finally, all the major earthquake hazards estimated above, and other significant parameters representing local geology were integrated using the analytic hierarchy process and hazard index map for the study area was prepared. Maps showing the spatial variation of seismic hazards (intensity of ground shaking, liquefaction potential and predominant frequency) and hazard index are presented in this work.

A performance-based framework for assessing liquefaction potential based on CPT data

This article describes a new performance-based approach for evaluating the return period of seismic soil liquefaction based on standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) data. The conventional liquefaction evaluation methods consider a single acceleration level and magnitude and these approaches fail to take into account the uncertainty in earthquake loading. The seismic hazard analysis based on the probabilistic method clearly shows that a particular acceleration value is being contributed by different magnitudes with varying probability. In the new method presented in this article, the entire range of ground shaking and the entire range of earthquake magnitude are considered and the liquefaction return period is evaluated based on the SPT and CPT data. This article explains the performance-based methodology for the liquefaction analysis – starting from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the evaluation of seismic hazard and the performance-based method to evaluate the liquefaction return period. A case study has been done for Bangalore, India, based on SPT data and converted CPT values. The comparison of results obtained from both the methods have been presented. In an area of 220 km2 in Bangalore city, the site class was assessed based on large number of borehole data and 58 Multi-channel analysis of surface wave survey. Using the site class and peak acceleration at rock depth from PSHA, the peak ground acceleration at the ground surface was estimated using probabilistic approach. The liquefaction analysis was done based on 450 borehole data obtained in the study area. The results of CPT match well with the results obtained from similar analysis with SPT data.

Dynamic Site Characterization and Correlation of Shear Wave Velocity with Standard Penetration Test `N' Values for the City of Agartala, Tripura State, India

Seismic site characterization is the basic requirement for seismic microzonation and site response studies of an area. Site characterization helps to gauge the average dynamic properties of soil deposits and thus helps to evaluate the surface level response. This paper presents a seismic site characterization of Agartala city, the capital of Tripura state, in the northeast of India. Seismically, Agartala city is situated in the Bengal Basin zone which is classified as a highly active seismic zone, assigned by Indian seismic code BIS-1893, Indian Standard Criteria for Earthquake Resistant Design of Structures, Part-1 General Provisions and Buildings. According to the Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi (2002), it is the highest seismic level (zone-V) in the country. The city is very close to the Sylhet fault (Bangladesh) where two major earthquakes (M (w) > 7) have occurred in the past and affected severely this city and the whole of northeast India. In order to perform site response evaluation, a series of geophysical tests at 27 locations were conducted using the multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) technique, which is an advanced method for obtaining shear wave velocity (V (s)) profiles from in situ measurements. Similarly, standard penetration test (SPT-N) bore log data sets have been obtained from the Urban Development Department, Govt. of Tripura. In the collected data sets, out of 50 bore logs, 27 were selected which are close to the MASW test locations and used for further study. Both the data sets (V (s) profiles with depth and SPT-N bore log profiles) have been used to calculate the average shear wave velocity (V (s)30) and average SPT-N values for the upper 30 m depth of the subsurface soil profiles. These were used for site classification of the study area recommended by the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) manual. The average V (s)30 and SPT-N classified the study area as seismic site class D and E categories, indicating that the city is susceptible to site effects and liquefaction. Further, the different data set combinations between V (s) and SPT-N (corrected and uncorrected) values have been used to develop site-specific correlation equations by statistical regression, as `V (s)' is a function of SPT-N value (corrected and uncorrected), considered with or without depth. However, after considering the data set pairs, a probabilistic approach has also been presented to develop a correlation using a quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot. A comparison has also been made with the well known published correlations (for all soils) available in the literature. The present correlations closely agree with the other equations, but, comparatively, the correlation of shear wave velocity with the variation of depth and uncorrected SPT-N values provides a more suitable predicting model. Also the Q-Q plot agrees with all the other equations. In the absence of in situ measurements, the present correlations could be used to measure V (s) profiles of the study area for site response studies.

Probable maximum precipitation estimation for catchments in Mahanadi river basin

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is a theoretical concept that is widely used by hydrologists to arrive at estimates for probable maximum flood (PMF) that find use in planning, design and risk assessment of high-hazard hydrological structures such as flood control dams upstream of populated areas. The PMP represents the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is meteorologically possible for a watershed or an area at a particular time of year, with no allowance made for long-term climatic trends. Various methods are in use for estimation of PMP over a target location corresponding to different durations. Moisture maximization method and Hershfield method are two widely used methods. The former method maximizes the observed storms assuming that the atmospheric moisture would rise up to a very high value estimated based on the maximum daily dew point temperature. On the other hand, the latter method is a statistical method based on a general frequency equation given by Chow. The present study provides one-day PMP estimates and PMP maps for Mahanadi river basin based on the aforementioned methods. There is a need for such estimates and maps, as the river basin is prone to frequent floods. Utility of the constructed PMP maps in computing PMP for various catchments in the river basin is demonstrated. The PMP estimates can eventually be used to arrive at PMF estimates for those catchments. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Investigation of orographic features influencing spatial distribution of rainfall over the Western Ghats of India using satellite data

Using remotely sensed Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 rainfall and topographic data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the impact of oroghraphical aspects such as topography, spatial variability of elevation and altitude of apexes are examined to investigate capacious summer monsoon rainfall over the Western Ghats (WG) of India. TRMM 3B42 v7 rainfall data is validated with Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data at 0.5 degrees resolution over the WG. The analysis of spatial pattern of monsoon rainfall with orography of the WG ascertains that the grade of orographic precipitation depends mainly on topography of the mountain barrier followed by steepness of windward side slope and altitude of the mountain. Longer and broader, i.e. cascaded topography, elevated summits and gradually increasing slopes impel the enhancement in precipitation. Comparing topography of various states of the WG, it has been observed that windward side of Karnataka receives intense rainfall in the WG during summer monsoon. It has been observed that the rainfall is enhanced before the peak of the mountain and confined up to the height about 800m over the WG. In addition to this, the spatial distribution of heavy and very heavy rainfall events in the last 14 years has also been explored. Heavy and very heavy rain events on this hilly terrain are categorized with a threshold of precipitation (R) in the range 150>R>120mmday(-1) and exceeding 150mmday(-1) using probability distribution of TRMM 3B42 v7 rainfall. The areas which are prone to heavy precipitation are identified. The study would help policy makers to manage the hazard scenario and, to improve weather predictions on mountainous terrain of the WG.

Seismic intensity map of South India for estimated future earthquakes

In this study, an attempt has been made to prepare the seismic intensity map for south India considering the probable earthquakes in the region. Anbazhagan et al. (Nat Hazards 60:1325-1345, 2012) have identified eight probable future earthquake zones in south India based on rupture-based seismic hazard analysis. Anbazhagan et al. (Eng Geol 171:81-95, 2014) has estimated the maximum future earthquake magnitude at these eight zones using regional rupture character. In this study, the whole south India is divided into several grids of size 1(o) x 1(o) and the intensity at each grid point is calculated using the regional intensity model for the maximum earthquake magnitude at each of the eight zones. The intensity due to earthquakes at these zones is mapped and thus eight seismic intensity maps are prepared. The final seismic intensity map of south India is obtained by considering the maximum intensity at each grid point due to the estimated earthquakes. By looking at the seismic intensity map, one can expect slight to heavy damage due to the probable earthquake magnitudes. Heavy damage may happen close to the probable earthquake zones.

Probabilistic Models for Forecasting Earthquakes in the Northeast Region of India

Northeast India and its adjoining areas are characterized by very high seismic activity. According to the Indian seismic code, the region falls under seismic zone V, which represents the highest seismic-hazard level in the country. This region has experienced a number of great earthquakes, such as the Assam (1950) and Shillong (1897) earthquakes, that caused huge devastation in the entire northeast and adjacent areas by flooding, landslides, liquefaction, and damage to roads and buildings. In this study, an attempt has been made to find the probability of occurrence of a major earthquake (M-w > 6) in this region using an updated earthquake catalog collected from different sources. Thereafter, dividing the catalog into six different seismic regions based on different tectonic features and seismogenic factors, the probability of occurrences was estimated using three models: the lognormal, Weibull, and gamma distributions. We calculated the logarithmic probability of the likelihood function (ln L) for all six regions and the entire northeast for all three stochastic models. A higher value of ln L suggests a better model, and a lower value shows a worse model. The results show different model suits for different seismic zones, but the majority follows lognormal, which is better for forecasting magnitude size. According to the results, Weibull shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models for small as well as large elapsed time T and time intervals t, whereas the lognormal model shows the lowest and the gamma model shows intermediate probabilities. Only for elapsed time T = 0, the lognormal model shows the highest conditional probabilities among the three models at a smaller time interval (t = 3-15 yrs). The opposite result is observed at larger time intervals (t = 15-25 yrs), which show the highest probabilities for the Weibull model. However, based on this study, the IndoBurma Range and Eastern Himalaya show a high probability of occurrence in the 5 yr period 2012-2017 with >90% probability.