Role of the cloud adjustment time scale in simulation of the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon

The simulation of precipitation in a general circulation model relying on relaxed mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme is sensitive to cloud adjustment time scale (CATS). In this study, the frequency of the dominant intra-seasonal mode and interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model is shown to be sensitive to the CATS. It has been shown that a longer CATS of about 5 h simulates the spatial distribution of the ISMR better. El Nio Southern Oscillation-ISMR relationship is also sensitive to CATS. The equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall and ISMR coupling is sensitive to CATS. Our study suggests that a careful choice of CATS is necessary for adequate simulation of spatial pattern as well as interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon precipitation.

Role of orography in modulating space-time scales of convection over South Asia

Propagation of convective systems in the meridional direction during boreal summer is responsible for active and break phases of monsoon over south Asia. This region is unique in the world in its characteristics of monsoon variability and is in close proximity of mountains like the Himalayas. Here, using an atmospheric general circulation model, we try to understand the role of orography in determining spatial and temporal scales of these convective systems. Absence of orography (noGlOrog) decreased the simulated seasonal mean precipitation over India by 23 % due to delay in onset by about a month vis-a-vis the full-mountain case. In noGlOrog, poleward propagations were absent during the delayed period prior to onset. Post-onset, both simulations had similar patterns of poleward propagations. The spatial and temporal scales of propagating clouds bands were determined using wavelet analysis. These scales were found to be different in full-mountain and no-mountain experiments in June-July. However, after the onset of monsoon in noGlOrog, these scales become similar to that with orography. Simulations with two different sets of convection schemes confirmed this result. Further analysis shows that the absence (presence) of meridional propagations during early (late) phase of summer monsoon in noGlOrog was associated with weaker (stronger) vertical shear of zonal wind over south Asia. Our study shows that orography plays a major role in determining the time of onset over the Indian region. However, after onset, basic characteristics of propagating convective systems and therefore the monthly precipitation over India, are less sensitive to the presence of orography and are modulated by moist convective processes.

Climate change scenarios of surface solar radiation in data sparse regions: a case study in Malaprabha River Basin, India

A variety of methods are available to estimate future solar radiation (SR) scenarios at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment. However, there are no clear guidelines available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. Three methodologies to guide the estimation of SR are discussed in this study, namely: Case 1: SR is measured, Case 2: SR is measured but sparse and Case 3: SR is not measured. In Case 1, future SR scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies that transfer the simulated large-scale information of global climate models to a local scale ( measurements). In Case 2, the SR was first estimated at the local scale for a longer time period using sparse measured records, and then future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. In Case 3: the SR was first estimated at a regional scale for a longer time period using complete or sparse measured records of SR from which SR at the local scale was estimated. Finally, the future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. The lack of observed SR data, especially in developing countries, has hindered various climate change impact studies. Hence, this was further elaborated by applying the Case 3 methodology to a semi-arid Malaprabha reservoir catchment in southern India. A support vector machine was used in downscaling SR. Future monthly scenarios of SR were estimated from simulations of third-generation Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3) for various SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT). Results indicated a projected decrease of 0.4 to 12.2 W m(-2) yr(-1) in SR during the period 2001-2100 across the 4 scenarios. SR was calculated using the modified Hargreaves method. The decreasing trends for the future were in agreement with the simulations of SR from the CGCM3 model directly obtained for the 4 scenarios.

Local and remote impacts of direct aerosol forcing on Asian monsoon

The impact of heating by black carbon aerosols on Indian summer monsoon has remained inconclusive. Some investigators have predicted that black carbon aerosols reduce monsoon rainfall while others have argued that it will increase monsoon rainfall. These conclusions have been based on local influence of aerosols on the radiative fluxes. The impact of aerosol-like heating in one region on the rainfall in a remote region has not been examined in detail. Here, using an atmospheric general circulation model, it has been shown that remote influence of aerosol-like heating can be as important as local influence on Indian summer monsoon. Precipitation in northern Arabian Sea and north-west Indian region increased by 16% in June to July when aerosol-like heating were present globally. The corresponding increase in precipitation due to presence of aerosol-like heating only over South Asia (local impact) and East Asia (remote impact) were 28 and 13%, respectively. This enhancement in precipitation was due to destabilization of the atmosphere in pre-monsoon season that affected subsequent convection. Moreover, pre-monsoon heating of the lower troposphere changed the circulation substantially that enabled influx of more moisture over certain regions and reduced the moist static stability of the atmosphere. It has been shown that regional aerosol heating can have large impact on the phase of upper tropospheric Rossby wave in pre-monsoon season, which acts as a primary mechanism behind teleconnection and leads to the change in precipitation during monsoon season. These results demonstrate that changes in aerosol in one region can influence the precipitation in a remote region through changes in circulation.

A Stochastic Chemical Dynamic Approach to Correlate Autoimmunity and Optimal Vitamin-D Range

Motivated by several recent experimental observations that vitamin-D could interact with antigen presenting cells (APCs) and T-lymphocyte cells (T-cells) to promote and to regulate different stages of immune response, we developed a coarse grained but general kinetic model in an attempt to capture the role of vitamin-D in immunomodulatory responses. Our kinetic model, developed using the ideas of chemical network theory, leads to a system of nine coupled equations that we solve both by direct and by stochastic (Gillespie) methods. Both the analyses consistently provide detail information on the dependence of immune response to the variation of critical rate parameters. We find that although vitamin-D plays a negligible role in the initial immune response, it exerts a profound influence in the long term, especially in helping the system to achieve a new, stable steady state. The study explores the role of vitamin-D in preserving an observed bistability in the phase diagram (spanned by system parameters) of immune regulation, thus allowing the response to tolerate a wide range of pathogenic stimulation which could help in resisting autoimmune diseases. We also study how vitamin-D affects the time dependent population of dendritic cells that connect between innate and adaptive immune responses. Variations in dose dependent response of anti-inflammatory and pro-inflammatory T-cell populations to vitamin-D correlate well with recent experimental results. Our kinetic model allows for an estimation of the range of optimum level of vitamin-D required for smooth functioning of the immune system and for control of both hyper-regulation and inflammation. Most importantly, the present study reveals that an overdose or toxic level of vitamin-D or any steroid analogue could give rise to too large a tolerant response, leading to an inefficacy in adaptive immune function.

A modeling study of the processes of surface salinity seasonal cycle in the Bay of Bengal

In response to the Indian Monsoon freshwater forcing, the Bay of Bengal exhibits a very strong seasonal cycle in sea surface salinity (SSS), especially near the mouths of the Ganges-Brahmaputra and along the east coast of India. In this paper, we use an eddy-permitting (similar to 25 km resolution) regional ocean general circulation model simulation to quantify the processes responsible for this SSS seasonal cycle. Despite the absence of relaxation toward observations, the model reproduces the main features of the observed SSS seasonal cycle, with freshest water in the northeastern Bay, particularly during and after the monsoon. The model also displays an intense and shallow freshening signal in a narrow (similar to 100 km wide) strip that hugs the east coast of India, from September to January, in good agreement with high-resolution measurements along two ships of opportunity lines. The mixed layer salt budget confirms that the strong freshening in the northern Bay during the monsoon results from the Ganges-Brahmaputra river discharge and from precipitation over the ocean. From September onward, the East India Coastal Current transports this freshwater southward along the east coast of India, reaching the southern tip of India in November. The surface freshening results in an enhanced vertical salinity gradient that increases salinity of the surface layer by vertical processes. Our results reveal that the erosion of the freshwater tongue along the east coast of India is not driven by northward horizontal advection, but by vertical processes that eventually overcome the freshening by southward advection and restore SSS to its premonsoon values. The salinity-stratified barrier layer hence only acts as a ``barrier'' for vertical heat fluxes, but is associated with intense vertical salt fluxes in the Bay of Bengal.

Impact of diurnal forcing on intraseasonal sea surface temperature oscillations in the Bay of Bengal

The diurnal cycle is an important mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in tropical oceans, influencing air-sea interaction and climate variability. Upper ocean mixing mechanisms are significant at diurnal time scales controlling the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of SST. Sensitivity experiments using an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) for the summer monsoon of the year 2007 show that incorporation of diurnal cycle in the model atmospheric forcings improves the SST simulation at both intraseasonal and shorter time scales in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). The increase in SST-ISV amplitudes with diurnal forcing is approximate to 0.05 degrees C in the southern bay while it is approximate to 0.02 degrees C in the northern bay. Increased intraseasonal warming with diurnal forcing results from the increase in mixed layer heat gain from insolation, due to shoaling of the daytime mixed layer. Amplified intraseasonal cooling is dominantly controlled by the strengthening of subsurface processes owing to the nocturnal deepening of mixed layer. In the southern bay, intraseasonal variability is mainly determined by the diurnal cycle in insolation, while in the northern bay, diurnal cycle in insolation and winds have comparable contributions. Temperature inversions (TI) develop in the northern bay in the absence of diurnal variability in wind stress. In the northern bay, SST-ISV amplification is not as large as that in the southern bay due to the weaker diurnal variability of mixed layer depth (MLD) limited by salinity stratification. Diurnal variability of model MLD is not sufficient to create large modifications in mixed layer heat budget and SST-ISV in the northern bay.

Sources of black carbon aerosols in South Asia and surrounding regions during the Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, Gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB)

This study examines differences in the surface black carbon (BC) aerosol loading between the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the Arabian Sea (AS) and identifies dominant sources of BC in South Asia and surrounding regions during March-May 2006 (Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, Gases and Radiation Budget, ICARB) period. A total of 13 BC tracers are introduced in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry to address these objectives. The model reproduced the temporal and spatial variability of BC distribution observed over the AS and the BoB during the ICARB ship cruise and captured spatial variability at the inland sites. In general, the model underestimates the observed BC mass concentrations. However, the model-observation discrepancy in this study is smaller compared to previous studies. Model results show that ICARB measurements were fairly well representative of the AS and the BoB during the pre-monsoon season. Elevated BC mass concentrations in the BoB are due to 5 times stronger influence of anthropogenic emissions on the BoB compared to the AS. Biomass burning in Burma also affects the BoB much more strongly than the AS. Results show that anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, respectively, accounted for 60 and 37% of the average +/- standard deviation (representing spatial and temporal variability) BC mass concentration (1341 +/- 2353 ng m(-3)) in South Asia. BC emissions from residential (61 %) and industrial (23 %) sectors are the major anthropogenic sources, except in the Himalayas where vehicular emissions dominate. We find that regional-scale transport of anthropogenic emissions contributes up to 25% of BC mass concentrations in western and eastern India, suggesting that surface BC mass concentrations cannot be linked directly to the local emissions in different regions of South Asia.

The impact of latent heating on the location and strength of the tropical easterly jet

The tropical easterly jet (TEJ) is a prominent atmospheric circulation feature observed during the Asian summer monsoon. It is generally assumed that sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau directly influences the location of the TEJ. However, other studies have suggested the importance of latent heating in determining the jet location. In this paper, the relative importance of latent heating on the maintenance of the TEJ is explored through simulations with a general circulation model. The simulation of the TEJ by the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1 is discussed in detail. These simulations showed that the location of the TEJ is well correlated with the location of the precipitation. Significant zonal shifts in the location of the precipitation resulted in similar shifts in the zonal location of the TEJ. These zonal shifts had minimal effect on the large-scale structure of the jet. Further, provided that precipitation patterns were relatively unchanged, orography did not directly impact the location of the TEJ. These changes were robust even with changes in the cumulus parameterization. This suggests the potential important role of latent heating in determining the location and structure of the TEJ. These results were used to explain the significant differences in the zonal location of the TEJ in the years 1988 and 2002. To understand the contribution of the latitudinal location of latent heating on the strength of the TEJ, aqua-planet simulations were carried out. It has been shown that for similar amounts of net latent heating, the jet is stronger when heating is in the higher tropical latitudes. This may partly explain the reason for the jet to be very strong during the JJA monsoon season.